The growth needed to transition to electric vehicles
Tesla
Elon Musk's new master plan isn't ready yet. Tesla's CEO was asked about the company's five-year plan and his updated master plan at the stakeholder's meeting in August. While he didn't get into specifics, Tesla's head of investor relations reportedly did spill the beans at a Goldman Sachs invite-only tech conference. Martin Viecha gave one of the world's largest investment banks plenty of details on how the company will look and what will be accomplished by 2027-28.
Business Insider quoted the Tesla employee stating, "EV architecture is so different from internal combustion engine, it allows for a third revolution in automotive manufacturing."
Undoubtedly, Tesla has led the way in the electric vehicle space. However, that space is getting more competitive, with longer-established auto manufacturers ramping up electric vehicle production.
The audience of investors wanted to hear how Tesla would compete. Viecha repeated numbers from Tesla's second quarter earnings call. The cost of building the product has dropped by more than half in the last seven years.
He said in 2017, it cost $84,000 to make one of their vehicles, but it is now down to $36,000. Incredibly, those cost savings were not from batteries or supplies but from better vehicle designs and optimizing factories. Viecha said the cost per car manufactured is the most critical metric to monitor. It dictates how many vehicles can be built and just how big Tesla can become. He clarified that the company will continue to find ways to lower production costs.
With the falling cost of production, the interest in a less expensive Tesla continues to rise. While the term, Model 2 (Details on Model 2), was not reported, it's no secret that this has been on the company's radar for some time. Viecha says the company wants to be a high-volume automaker. Therefore, a more affordable option is necessary to broaden the portfolio.
However, the demand for the Model 3 and the Model Y is still so high that a new Model is not needed any time soon. That's an essential point because the head of investor relations said that a cheaper Tesla would be used in the Robotaxi (everything we know about the Robotaxi) production.
Of course, the investors needed some reassurance about Full Self-Driving. Musk has publicly stated that FSD can make the company worth a lot. Viecha said that supervised FSD is underway. He said more than 100,000 people are using FSD in the United States. However, he reiterated the point that the only way the system can improve is by collecting data.
Also, interesting to note that Viecha assigned generation numbers to Tesla products. The first generation is the Model S and Model X. While the second generation is the Model 3 and Model Y. He referred to Robotaxi and presumable the Model 2 as the third generation. However, with the Tesla Semi ready to roll and the Cybertruck coming next year, perhaps he wants to revise the generation breakdown for the next investor meeting.
Tesla’s been on a roll with Supercharger improvements lately, from the 325kW charging update for the Cybertruck, to 500kW with V4 Superchargers coming next year. While those improvements have been limited to the Cybertruck, Tesla didn’t put all their focus on their new flagship vehicle, but looked at their more affordable vehicles as well.
LFP Battery Heating
Tesla’s Superchargers can now heat LFP Batteries - those that are in the Model 3 and Model Y Rear Wheel Drive variants. This applies to Long Range and Standard Range models, which saw a limited run. This is another update included as part of the 2024 Tesla Holiday Update - which really arrived with a lot of unannounced new features and capabilities.
The change is pretty interesting - Superchargers of the V3 and V4 variety can now pre-heat batteries for Model 3 and Model Y vehicles equipped with LFP battery packs. That means those vehicles are able to get back on the road faster when it's extremely cold. Of course, Tesla still advises you to precondition before you arrive, saving drivers time and money.
Max de Zegher, Tesla’s Director of Charging, also commented on the new feature. Essentially, Tesla is inducing an AC (alternating) ripple current through the battery to warm it up. Keep in mind that Superchargers are DC charging. That means it is possible to get a cold-soaked LFP vehicle on the road 4x faster than before, assuming that it didn’t precondition at all and that it is in the worst-case scenario (below 0ºF).
In essence, Tesla is using some engineering magic to turn the circuits inside the LFP battery into an electric heater - and powering that heater through the Supercharger. An AC ripple current is a small oscillation in the DC charging current that generates heat through electrical resistance, warming up the battery. Those ripples are a byproduct of converting AC to DC and back - so Tesla is using the onboard charger to induce those ripples to warm up the battery. Definitely an innovative technique that’s really only possible with the versatility of the NACS connector.
We’re hoping Tesla can implement this across their full lineup of vehicles, but we’ll have to wait and see how it is trialed across LFP vehicles first and if it is even possible on vehicles with 2170 or 4680 battery packs.
Tesla launched two FSD updates simultaneously on Saturday night, and what’s most interesting is that they arrived on the same software version. We’ll dig into that a little later, but for now, there’s good news for everyone. For Hardware 3 owners, FSD V12.6.1 is launching to all vehicles, including the Model 3 and Model Y. For AI4 owners, FSD V13.2.4 is launching, starting with the Cybertruck.
FSD V13.2.4
A new V13 build is now rolling out to the Cybertruck and is expected to arrive for the rest of the AI4 fleet soon. However, this build seems to be focused on bug fixes. There are no changes to the release notes for the Cybertruck with this release, and it’s unlikely to feature any changes when it arrives on other vehicles.
FSD V12.6.1 builds upon V12.6, which is the latest FSD version for HW3 vehicles. While FSD V12.6 was only released for the redesigned Model S and Model X with HW3, FSD V12.6.1 is adding support for the Model 3 and Model Y.
While this is only a bug-fix release for users coming from FSD V12.6, it includes massive improvements for anyone coming from an older FSD version. Two of the biggest changes are the new end-to-end highway stack that now utilizes FSD V12 for highway driving and a redesigned controller that allows FSD to drive “V13” smooth.
It also adds speed profiles, earlier lane changes, and more. You can read our in-depth look at all the changes in FSD V12.6.
Same Update, Multiple FSD Builds
What’s interesting about this software version is that it “includes" two FSD updates, V12.6.1 for HW3 and V13.2.4 for HW4 vehicles. While this is interesting, it’s less special when you understand what’s happening under the hood.
The vehicle’s firmware and Autopilot firmware are actually completely separate. While a vehicle downloading a firmware update may look like a singular process, it’s actually performing several functions during this period. First, it downloads the vehicle’s firmware. Upon unpacking the update, it’s instructed which Autopilot/FSD firmware should be downloaded.
While the FSD firmware is separate, the vehicle can’t download any FSD update. The FSD version is hard-coded in the vehicle’s firmware that was just downloaded. This helps Tesla keep the infotainment and Autopilot firmware tightly coupled, leading to fewer issues.
What we’re seeing here is that HW3 vehicles are being told to download one FSD version, while HW4 vehicles are being told to download a different version.
While this is the first time Tesla has had two FSD versions tied to the same vehicle software version, the process hasn’t actually changed, and what we’re seeing won’t lead to faster FSD updates or the ability to download FSD separately. What we’re seeing is the direct result of the divergence of HW3 and HW4.
While HW3/4 remained basically on the same FSD version until recently, it is now necessary to deploy different versions for the two platforms. We expect this to be the norm going forward, where HW3 will be on a much different version of FSD than HW4. While each update may not include two different FSD versions going forward, we may see it occasionally, depending on which features Autopilot is dependent on.
Thanks to Greentheonly for helping us understand what happened with this release and for the insight into Tesla’s processes.
