Everything we know about the Tesla 'Model 2'

Tesla's working on a $25k vehicle

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The Tesla Model 2 aims to make electric vehicle ownership more affordable. Tesla probably won't use the name "Model 2" because it implies a smaller version of the Model 3 when it will really be a more economic version. Tesla's target is a $25k car, but the Model 3 was also supposed to be $35k but ended up being more expensive. The Model 3 currently sits at just under $47k in the US.

When Tesla created the Model 3, they essentially built a scaled-down, more efficient version of the Model S by removing features that were more expensive or hard to manufacture. Many of the switches, vents, and features were either simplified or completely removed, including the instrument cluster.

This includes replacing physical controls with on screen controls, like the handle for the glove box, mirror adjustment buttons, windshield wiper controls and many others.

Other controls were simplified to reduce complexity and therefore cost. Some examples include the simplified vent system and steering wheel buttons. The interior and exterior door handles were also redesigned to reduce the amount of moving parts.

Back in 2016 when the Model 3 was unveiled it wasn’t entirely clear which features were cost-cutting measures and which were feature iterations and would become standard in all future Teslas.

When Tesla debuted the new Model S in 2021 it became clearer which features may have been cost-cutting measures. We saw a lot of Model 3 features carry over to the redesigned Model S, such as a horizontal center screen, one continuous vent with on screen controls, but not every feature made it over.

These were seen as the compromises Tesla made to create a vehicle that is cheaper to manufacture when compared to the Model S.

The Model 3 doesn't have an air suspension, cooled seats, a rear screen, or an instrument cluster. It also has a slightly smaller center screen. So what more can Tesla remove or simplify from a Model 3 to create a more affordable, scaled-down vehicle?

Tesla would likely keep all software-only features since they don’t add much to the cost of the vehicle. Some possibilities may include fewer speakers, removing heated seats in the rear, removal of wireless chargers, and removal of the glass roof. Removing any cameras or the FSD computer is unlikely since the FSD package is profitable for Tesla and there are also safety features that depend on that hardware.

It’s possible that Tesla's Model 2 has transformed into the supposed Robotaxi mentioned at the Giga Rodeo Event. Elon has previously talked about creating a car without steering wheels or pedals, which would be fitting for a fully autonomous vehicle.

At Battery Day, Tesla said that standard range vehicles and future models will use lithium iron phosphate batteries. LFP batteries are cheaper to produce and have some advantages and disadvantages when compared to nickel batteries. Tesla would likely use the 4680 LFP battery for the Model 2. This would make the vehicle smaller and lighter, but may also offer less range.

Tesla's 4680 battery

Tesla’s 4680 cell is named after its dimension, 46mm x 80mm. They are much cheaper to manufacture, producing 5x more energy, 16% more range, and 6x more power, making them far more economic than traditional batteries. Using 4680 batteries, the Model 2 is expected to have a travel range of 250 to 300 miles.

Tesla will use a structural 4680 cell pack in a single body cast to manufacture the Model 2 as efficiently as possible. This along with advanced robotics will help Tesla achieve economies of scale and mass-manufacture their most affordable car yet.

In May 2022, during the Financial Times 'Future of the Car' interview (video), Elon stated that there is some probability that Tesla would make a car smaller than the Model 3, leaving the possibility open for both, a smaller Model 3 and a Tesla Robotaxi.

Don't expect the “Model 2” anytime soon, Elon has talked about Tesla finishing the CyberTruck this year and starting production in 2023. Tesla also has the Roadster and Semi to produce, which are very likely to be ahead of the Model 2.

By that time, we may see drastic improvements in FSD that could warrant a fully autonomous Robotaxi. I wouldn't expect the Model 2 before 2024 at very best, but we could see prototypes before then.

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Tesla Reveals How It Tests FSD - A Series of Videos

Not a Tesla App

Tesla has published a 16-post series covering a wide range of unique scenarios against which the company tests each FSD release. Tesla’s VP of AI, Ashok Elluswamy, also provided some additional context, which we’ll cover below.

These scenarios could be difficult for a regular driver to respond to and are a good demonstration of FSD’s capabilities. Let’s take a look at all the different scenarios that Tesla regularly tests against. According to Ashok, these tests are only one of 10 ways Tesla validates their software. These tests were done against FSD v12.5.6.3, the HW4 build that’s on approximately 20% of the fleet.

We’ve embedded each video below and also provided some additional information.

1. Reverse Cut-in (Occluded)

This first test is for a car reversing out of a parking space, while occluded (vision blocked) by another car or obstacle. In the test, the Model Y notices the incoming car and then brakes with space left over.

2. Peeking (Occluded)

In this video, it's hard to even spot the car on the right that’s “peeking” forward—it's occluded by bushes on the side of the road. FSD notices and stops in time to let the other vehicle safely pass.

3. Left Turn Cut-in

An incoming vehicle that takes a left turn to enter the same lane of travel as FSD - spotted, stopped, and then continuing smoothly. In the second shot, you can see FSD left a considerable amount of space to let the vehicle cut in.

4. Parallel Cut-in (Occluded)

This is honestly one of the most common scenarios on a highway - someone cuts in while obscured into your lane of travel. Once again, FSD does its thing with plenty of space to spare.

5. Yield for Oncoming During Overtake

FSD’s path planner plans an overtake around a stationary vehicle here, sees the oncoming traffic, and politely waits its turn to continue. This is another everyday scenario, especially on urban and suburban streets.

6. Stop Sign Right-of-Way Violator

There are a surprising number of people who don’t know how stop signs work. However, FSD does know how they work and also knows what to do if others act unpredictably. This is one of the best demonstrations of FSD’s capability to react quickly and effectively to unpredictable behavior on the roads.

7. Door Opening During Overtake

Another overtake scenario, but this time the vehicle being overtaken throws open its door into traffic. Not necessarily the wisest of moves, but humans are unpredictable. Good to see Tesla working to save its vehicles from both hitting the door or having the door hit with its new Blind Spot Monitoring While Parked feature.

8. Right Turn Harsh Braking

This scenario is another common one - someone is taking a right turn, and you expect them to complete the turn, but they go ahead and slam on the brakes. Here, FSD brakes in time - using Automatic Emergency Braking - and then continues safely. Tesla has been working to improve AEB and the scenarios it can react to - and these are all a part and parcel of FSD’s real-time and active safety features.

9. Left Turn Across Path

This one is pretty clean-cut - someone takes a left turn even though you’re on your way through the intersection. This particular accident is one of the most common - 53% of cross-path accidents involve a left turn through an intersection where a side impact will be lethal. FSD can make a big difference - over 8,000 people die in North America alone in this particular scenario.

10. Cut-Out to Static Cone

Here, FSD smoothly reacts to an object on the road as the vehicle ahead dodges it. We’d love to see this scenario done with different types of objects or debris, as this is another common item - especially with roadkill on country roads. A good demo of FSD’s collision avoidance maneuvers too!

11. Dynamic Debris (Dropped Cone)

Taking it one step further, FSD successfully notices, slows down, stops itself from hitting the bouncing cone, and then makes it around safely. If you’ve ever seen someone strap something down in the bed of a pickup and forget to say “This ain’t going anywhere” - this is that exact scenario.

12. U-Turn Cut-in (Occluded)

Another high-speed occluded cut-in, this time for a vehicle making a U-Turn from an oddly shaped intersection. FSD started braking the moment the first couple pixels of the Model Y were beyond the bush occluding vision. With a human’s reaction time, this would have resulted in a T-bone.

Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s Director of AI - mentioned that this is possible because of low latency and high intelligence - combined together, it enables FSD to make a threat assessment and decide what to do, very quickly. It also considers the potential of a rear-end collision - and there is collision avoidance baked into that decision-making.

13. High-Speed Cut-out to Stationary Vehicle

Similar to the cone cut-out, this one happens at 73mph (117km/h)! FSD sees the car dodging, notices there’s an obstacle, and moves out of the way without dropping speed.

14. High-Speed Harsh Braking

Another common scenario - in fact, the number one reason why pileups occur on highways is the harsh, sudden braking of vehicles in front. FSD once again notices and comes to a safe stop here.

15. High-Speed Stationary Child

Tesla has been previously greatly criticized for its ability to come to a safe stop for children playing on the road. Here, Tesla is demonstrating its capability of doing so - once again with highway speeds of 73mph. 

16. High-Speed Crossing Child

And to really make the point - it can do it with a crossing child too. Tesla has made a strong commitment to safety for vulnerable road users, and this is a good way to show how it works.

That’s a lot of unique scenarios that Tesla tests against - and each and every build has to be vetted against this huge list of different safety tests in order to ensure that the build that ends up in customer hands is as safe as possible. With FSD v13 looking like it's coming soon, we’re excited to see where this takes Tesla next. 

With Musk announcing that FSD v13 is coming soon, it really is starting to feel like Unsupervised FSD and Robotaxi could be pushed out sometime next year.

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Musk Confirms FSD V13 is Coming Soon

Not a Tesla App

Tesla announced an updated roadmap for FSD in late October. With it, they announced that FSD v13, the one that’s expected to make Unsupervised FSD feature complete (although not 100% reliable), would start being sent to employees by the end of the week.

We have yet to see any hints or sightings of employees testing FSD v13, but Elon Musk has now stated that FSD v13 is coming soon.

It sounds like Musk is talking about the employee release as it usually does, but it’s not immediately clear. Tesla originally predicted that select owners would receive FSD v13.3 around Thanksgiving.

Musk also mentioned that FSD v13 is trending to be about 500% better than the current build of v12.5.5.3 on the Cybertruck. If that’s true, Unsupervised FSD is just a regulatory leap away, rather than a technical or training challenge. However, let’s remember that Musk has often thrown out these vast improvement numbers that don’t appear to materialize when the update rolls out to customers. There’s no doubt that FSD v13 will be a big milestone and have several new features, such as Autopark at destination_, Unpark and more, but the much lower miles per intervention will likely come in later revisions.

Tesla has already seen drastic improvements this year, moving from V11.4.9 to v12.3.6, and then more recently to V12.5.4.2. Each successive build has had major improvements in how FSD is able to react and respond in real-time while also becoming smoother and safer.

We’re in for some exciting times as an even better FSD version makes its way to customers soon. And in order to really make the point, Tesla has also shown off how they conduct FSD Safety Testing in a series of videos, which we’ll include below.

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