FSD Beta numbers and everything else revealed at Tesla's Q2 earnings call

July 21, 2022

By Dan Burkland

Tesla produces its 2 millionth vehicle at Fremont/Nevada

Tesla

Yesterday Tesla held its second quarter earnings call. Although Elon Musk has previously said he wouldn't be on earnings calls in the future, he did make this one.

As with previous earnings calls, plenty of data and statistics were revealed relating to production, future products, and FSD Beta.

Below is a recap of the entire event, including the Q&A session. The recap was originally posted to dburkland.com.

You can also listen to the earnings call below. The call begins at the 11 minute mark.

Opening remarks from Elon Musk

Unique quarter for Tesla due to Shanghai shutdown
Production records achieved in Fremont & Shanghai
Set up nicely for record breaking 2nd half of 2022
Past years have thrown several force majeure at Tesla yet the team continues to overcome
Giga Berlin Production Ramp continues with 1000 cars / week in June, Giga Austin to follow with the same number in the next few months
Still making cars w/ 2170 cells in parallel and important to note they aren’t dependent on 4680s and will still hit their production numbers
FSD Beta deployed to over 100,000 owners
5-6 years ago they set out to be the best manufacturer in the world
- Pro-manufacturing mindset has given them a competitive edge

Currently make the largest castings in the world
As a result of improved manufacturing processes in Berlin & Texas, Tesla has reduced body welding robot count by 70% per unit of capacity
- Body shop is roughly 3x smaller as it would be otherwise
- New vehicle bodies are lighter, cheaper, and quieter thanks to reduction in NVH
- Another level of simplicity and improvements are coming with Cybertruck (as well as future products coming down the road)
Intelligent seat belt tensioning based on vision system recently released, first in the industry to do this
- Can also adjust the airbag deployment as well
- Delivered via OTA update
- Will have profound impact on passenger safety
- Compatible for all HW3-equipped Teslas

Cybertruck
- Production still expected to start middle of 2023
- “Best product ever” -Elon
FSD Beta
- Planned to be released to all North American customers by end of 2022
- FSD will then be released to other geos such as Asia and EU soon after pending regulatory approval

Opening remarks from Zach Kirkhorn

Made substantial progress in almost every area of the business
New production records reached in existing factories and new ones actively ramping
Highest solar production volumes in years
Temporary shutdown had noticeable impact to vehicle margin
- Factory ramping also associated with negative impact on vehicle margin
Inflation, commodities, and logistics continue to be headwinds
Resource constrained on Powerwall and Megapack which should be resolved in the 2nd half of 2022
Austin & Berlin operating costs are going down as production ramps up
Tesla sold 75% of Bitcoin holdings
- They did so as they were uncertain when COVID lockdowns in China would end
- As a result they wanted to maximize cash position
- They are still interested in Bitcoin and have not yet sold any Dogecoin
Highest operating margins ever at 14.6%
Still targeting 50% of growth and still within reach

Q&A

Chinese EV Manufacturers & Software Innovation
- Elon believes Tesla China is the best EV manufacturer in China
- Chinese car companies will be a force to be reckoned with going forward
- Tesla has respect for Chinese automakers but believes they have whats necessary to compete
Unified Vector Space
- Unified Vector Space would be if instead of knitting together dynamic & static objects w/ C++ you knit them together at the NN level (meaning you no longer need to reconcile them in C++ heuristics)
- Architecturally better way
- Slight improvement in efficiency of FSD stack and something they want to get to
- Nirvana situation would be to have surround video auto labeling for all static & dynamic objects as well as surround video inference w/ spacial memory
- Elon believes they have a unified vector space by the end of 2022
- Elon is also very confident that Tesla will improve the frame rate as they delete legacy NNs and further optimize the FSD software stack
- The goal is to get FSD Beta to operate at 36fps for all 8 cameras compared to the current 24 frames which will reduce latency when reacting to a dynamic environment
Inflation & Future Price Reductions
- They do not control so therefore Elon says take w/ grain salt but thinks inflation to decrease by end of 2022
- Carbon, steel, aluminum, etc are trending down in cost which should see impact later in 2022, early 2023
- Processing of lithium is insanely costly
- Elon again encouraging entrepreneurs to enter the lithium business as there are, “software margins”
- “License to print money” -Elon
Bitcoin
- Cryptocurrency is not something Tesla thinks about a lot according to Elon
- Main goal is production and addressing climate change by making sustainable energy & transport a reality
4680s
- Structural pack is a monumental step forward from a physics perspective and is the way to go
- Gained perspective through entering production w/ structural pack Teslas which proved their hypotheses
- Cost improvements are thanks to solving technical issues and scale
- They have saved 4-5kg in mass from the early cast Model Y underbodies since their initial production
- Plan is to reduce mass of castings and to include more parts (and to adapt vehicle to work better with castings)
- Cybertruck will be another big step in this area
- Making progress on 4680 production ramp but continuing to leverage supplier cells (2170s) to ramp Giga Berlin & Texas
- Total production ramp of 4680 packs to 1000 per week by end of the year (preferably earlier)
- Q2 @ Kato fully automated powder conveyance for the dry anode electrode tool there unlocking major improvements in production & yields too
- Production as a result has increased 35% MoM since March and yields throughout factory are already at targets or trending towards them
- Took learnings from Fremont cell & pack lines and built optimized lines in Giga Berlin & Texas
- Cell design was revved to unlock higher performance and manufacturing simplicity
- Lines were fully integrated and insourced additional content
- As a result new challenges for ramping in Giga Berlin & Texas
- Last quarter cell equipment was fully installed at Giga Texas and they have since produced their first commissioning car sets of 4680s cells
- The target for Texas is to begin mass producing 4680 cells in Q3 2022 with the goal of being able to exceed the weekly cell production capacity of the Kato battery plant by end of 2022
- Priority with 4680s initially is simplicity and scale, Tesla was not aiming to include all of the bells & whistles right off the bat
- As manufacturing goals are achieved they plan to layer in new material technologies into their structural packs (and increase range as well)
- Currently in regards to 4680s Tesla’s main focus is to remove low hanging issues that would prevent further production ramp
- Dry electrode anode & cathode are included in the current 4680 process which makes things harder to ramp (yet they continue to achieve success here)
- Once mass production achieved they plan to quickly iterate w/ an increase in energy density and overall performance soon thereafter
- Tesla cell production will continue to compliment production volumes from suppliers
- Fundamental rate limiter for transition to sustainable energy is rate of li-ion battery pack production
  - Not due to scarcity of raw materials, refining lithium in ultra high purity is quite difficult and requires massive amounts of machinery
  - Super difficult to create anode and cathode
  - Elon believes 2/3 of batteries in the future will be iron phosphate, maybe some with manganese
  - Tesla is actively working with suppliers to ramp as quick as possible
- Tesla is taking action by building their own Cathode plant at Giga Texas as well as taking the plunge into lithium refinement
FSD Development Progress & Andrej Departure
- While Andrej Karpathy will be missed (recent departure), Elon remains very bullish on current team of 120 people in software / AI group and believes that they will solve FSD by end of 2022
- No major setbacks or delays in FSD timeline should occur as a result of Andrej’s departure
- Elon believes they will raise FSD price just before they go to wide beta (targeted for end of 2022)
- Value of FSD is extremely high and not well understood by most people, Elon thinks its ridiculously cheap if promises of performance materialize
Semiconductor Supply Chain Constraints
- Tesla procures about 1600 unique pieces of silicon from 43 different companies
- Supply chains are more stable w/ latest generation of chips
- Chips from the analog & mixed signaling space still remain a challenge from a supply chain perspective
- Supply chain line of sight continues to match planned outputs for both factories (no constraints)
- Long term contracts already in place for key battery materials and so there are no concerns about future constraints
- Tesla does not plan to manufacture their own chips however they continue to work with suppliers to ensure future product goals are achieved
- Chip shortage forced Teslas to delete redundant chips and update software accordingly (big positive in hindsight)

Cybertruck
- Deliveries to begin by the middle of 2023
Vehicle Demand
- Vehicle demand not an issue for Tesla for the foreseeable future
- No sizable macro impact on demand
- Difference between value in money and affordability and why you can’t just keep increasing prices
- Elon feels that they have raised prices to “frankly embarrassing levels”
  - Supply chain and inflation are main culprits for price increases
  - Elon is hopeful Tesla can reduce prices soon
- Elon thinks its achievable to produce 40,000 vehicles per week by end of 2022
  - Teslas has already produced 30,000 vehicles per week many times, 40,000 vehicles per week is definitely in reach
  - Plan is to get Giga Berlin & Texas to ramp to 5,000 vehicles per week by end of 2022 and 10,000 vehicles per week by end of 2023
- Elon reaffirms that Tesla does not have a demand problem but instead a production problem

Elon’s Role At Tesla
- If there is only good news Elon won’t plan to join the future earnings calls
- Elon is committed to working at Tesla as long as he can continue to help advance the company
AI
- Elon didn’t want to steal thunder from AI day so he will save the news / updates regarding Dojo & Optimus for then

You can follow Dan Burkland on Twitter at @DBurkland.

Tesla Vehicles to Drive Themselves to Customers by End of 2025 -- Advantages & Potential Issues

April 16, 2025

By Karan Singh

Not a Tesla App

One idea that consistently comes up when discussing the future potential of FSD is the ability to order a Tesla and have it arrive at your home—completely autonomously.

Picture this: a car rolls off the assembly line at Giga Texas, drives itself to the outbound delivery lot, and merges onto the highway—completely driverless. Its destination? A customer in upstate New York. Along the way, the vehicle independently plans its charging stops, navigates traffic, and drives nonstop, no breaks needed, until it pulls into the buyer’s driveway.

Of course, there’s a lot to consider and break down - but Elon Musk doubled down and said that he intends to have Tesla vehicles deliver themselves autonomously by the end of 2025. We’re sure there are some stipulations to that, but it’s an exciting idea that could save Tesla thousands per vehicle sold.

This year https://t.co/2eCadrXYfd
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 15, 2025

FSD Unsupervised Deliveries

The core idea is that FSD Unsupervised is nearing completeness, with the upcoming launch of Tesla’s first Robotaxi network slated for June. Once Tesla can demonstrate that Unsupervised driving is safe, it will expand beyond simply transporting passengers from Point A to Point B.

That will include moving vehicles from factory to consumer, which will vastly streamline Tesla’s delivery process - and really make a statement about how far Tesla is ahead of the competition.

Reduced Delivery Costs

One of the biggest keys for Tesla throughout its history has been its ability to drive down costs. Delivery costs add to the price of a vehicle, and it’s not just the price of transporting the vehicle, but the cost of the whole delivery experience — delivery center and personnel included.

Instead, if a future Tesla drives itself directly to the consumer, Tesla can further reduce the price of its vehicles or improve its profits.

Improved Customer Experience

Money aside, the real game-changer is that no other vehicle delivery experience will come close to Tesla’s. What other brand will be able to deliver a car that drives itself to your home—straight from the factory?

Having a vehicle deliver itself can also provide other benefits, such as faster delivery times for customers. The customer also won’t need to drive to a delivery center to pick up their vehicle. The vehicle would go directly from the factory to the customer without any steps in between.

There’s something undeniably futuristic about getting a notification on your phone, glancing outside, and seeing your brand-new Tesla autonomously pulling into your driveway.

Limitations

Of course, with any new process or feature - there will be limitations and hurdles for Tesla to address, and these will take time and effort.

Let’s discuss some of the hurdles Tesla will need to solve.

Charging Infrastructure

Besides achieving true autonomy, another big challenge will be charging infrastructure. No Tesla can currently plug itself in at a Supercharger - they’ll need access to the upcoming V4 Superchargers with Wireless Charging to take on a road trip autonomously.

That will be a challenging rollout in the initial few years, especially as Tesla hasn’t been actively replacing older V2 Supercharger sites just yet - and is instead focusing on deploying new ones. We imagine that the rollout of wireless charging will likely also be limited, and it is likely that only Tesla’s more premium vehicles and Robotaxis will receive wireless charging compatibility.

Autonomy Policies / Geographic Limitations

Tesla has been consistently hamstrung by red tape, and unsupervised deliveries will also be a massive hurdle to clear with many states and provinces, as well as at the federal level. That will be an implicit challenge for Tesla in the infancy of the Robotaxi network as well, but once approvals spread wider, we can see these restrictions being lifted and relaxed.

Mileage and Damage

One item that could be a sticking point for customers is mileage and damage. If your brand-new vehicle was damaged on its trip over, what would you do? You’d have to take it from your driveway right to the Service Center, effectively invalidating the entire experience.

Of course, many people will also want to see a low odometer on arrival of a brand new, fresh-from-factory vehicle - and that’s understandable. Having a car arrive with several hundred or even a thousand miles of wear and tear on the tires and paint could be a big negative as well.

What Is Likely to Happen

We think that Tesla will continue to ship vehicles longer distances - but perhaps once they’re offloaded at your local Service Center, an employee taps a button, and begins the self-delivery process. That eliminates many of the above problems we’ve outlined, including charging and additional mileage, while keeping many of the advantages intact.

For any customers who order a Tesla in Austin later this year, it’s possible Tesla could have the vehicle delivered directly to you.

Tesla's Q1 2025 Earnings Call: Top Investor Questions

April 15, 2025

By Karan Singh

Not a Tesla App

Like clockwork, it’s time for the opportunity to submit questions for Tesla’s Q1 2025 Earnings Call. Q1 has historically been difficult for Tesla and other auto manufacturers in general, but doom-and-gloom aside, there’s plenty more to be excited about, including upcoming improvements to FSD and the first phase of Tesla’s Robotaxi network.

Earnings Q1 2025 Questions

Tesla is gearing up for its Q1 2025 Earnings Call, providing an opportunity for shareholders to once again submit and vote on questions they want to be addressed during the event. Tesla has already announced the lower-than-expected delivery numbers for Q1 2025, and also held a Public All-Hands Meeting for the first time, so we’re interested to find out what answers to some of these questions during their Q&A session.

Most Popular Questions

When will FSD unsupervised be available for personal use on personally-owned cars?

Is Tesla still on track for releasing “more affordable models” this year? Or will you be focusing on simplified versions to enhance affordability, similar to the RWD Cybertruck?

Robotaxi still on track for this year?

How is Tesla positioning itself to flexibly adapt to global economic risks in the form of tariffs, political biases, etc.?

When do you expect Robotaxi to expand to all major US cities?

Regarding the Tesla Optimus pilot line, could you confirm if it is currently operational? If so, what is the current production rate of Optimus bots per week? Additionally, how might the recent tariffs impact the scalability of this production line moving forward?

Did Tesla experience any meaningful changes in order inflow rate in Q1 relating to all of the rumors of “brand damage”?

When will Tesla Insurance be available in all 50 states. I’m from Idaho, and I’m surrounded by states where it is available, but it isn’t available in my state.

How is the company planning to deal with the impact of Elon’s partnership with the current administration?

is there a possibility of a stock split if so what would it be

Can you provide more details on the plans for HW3 upgrade path for FSD?

When is Grok coming to Tesla vehicles? And will it be able to control anything in the car?

Submitting Your Own Questions

Questions and voting are conducted through Say, a third-party platform that validates share ownership. Once your ownership is verified, you can use your shares to vote, with your vote weight corresponding to the number of shares you hold. Submitting a question initially gives it votes equivalent to your number of shares.

Below, we also compiled a list of the top questions going into the Earnings Call, which takes place a week from today.

You can vote and submit your questions through Say right here.

Earnings Call

The Earnings Call itself will take place on April 22, at 5:30 PM EDT (2:30 PM PT). Links to the live stream will be made available closer to the event. A recap of the key points will also be provided as usual, so stay tuned for that in the hours after the call.