FSD Beta numbers and everything else revealed at Tesla's Q2 earnings call

July 21, 2022

By Dan Burkland

Tesla produces its 2 millionth vehicle at Fremont/Nevada

Tesla

Yesterday Tesla held its second quarter earnings call. Although Elon Musk has previously said he wouldn't be on earnings calls in the future, he did make this one.

As with previous earnings calls, plenty of data and statistics were revealed relating to production, future products, and FSD Beta.

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Below is a recap of the entire event, including the Q&A session. The recap was originally posted to dburkland.com.

You can also listen to the earnings call below. The call begins at the 11 minute mark.

Opening remarks from Elon Musk

Unique quarter for Tesla due to Shanghai shutdown
Production records achieved in Fremont & Shanghai
Set up nicely for record breaking 2nd half of 2022
Past years have thrown several force majeure at Tesla yet the team continues to overcome
Giga Berlin Production Ramp continues with 1000 cars / week in June, Giga Austin to follow with the same number in the next few months
Still making cars w/ 2170 cells in parallel and important to note they aren’t dependent on 4680s and will still hit their production numbers
FSD Beta deployed to over 100,000 owners
5-6 years ago they set out to be the best manufacturer in the world
- Pro-manufacturing mindset has given them a competitive edge

Currently make the largest castings in the world
As a result of improved manufacturing processes in Berlin & Texas, Tesla has reduced body welding robot count by 70% per unit of capacity
- Body shop is roughly 3x smaller as it would be otherwise
- New vehicle bodies are lighter, cheaper, and quieter thanks to reduction in NVH
- Another level of simplicity and improvements are coming with Cybertruck (as well as future products coming down the road)
Intelligent seat belt tensioning based on vision system recently released, first in the industry to do this
- Can also adjust the airbag deployment as well
- Delivered via OTA update
- Will have profound impact on passenger safety
- Compatible for all HW3-equipped Teslas

Cybertruck
- Production still expected to start middle of 2023
- “Best product ever” -Elon
FSD Beta
- Planned to be released to all North American customers by end of 2022
- FSD will then be released to other geos such as Asia and EU soon after pending regulatory approval

Opening remarks from Zach Kirkhorn

Made substantial progress in almost every area of the business
New production records reached in existing factories and new ones actively ramping
Highest solar production volumes in years
Temporary shutdown had noticeable impact to vehicle margin
- Factory ramping also associated with negative impact on vehicle margin
Inflation, commodities, and logistics continue to be headwinds
Resource constrained on Powerwall and Megapack which should be resolved in the 2nd half of 2022
Austin & Berlin operating costs are going down as production ramps up
Tesla sold 75% of Bitcoin holdings
- They did so as they were uncertain when COVID lockdowns in China would end
- As a result they wanted to maximize cash position
- They are still interested in Bitcoin and have not yet sold any Dogecoin
Highest operating margins ever at 14.6%
Still targeting 50% of growth and still within reach

Q&A

Chinese EV Manufacturers & Software Innovation
- Elon believes Tesla China is the best EV manufacturer in China
- Chinese car companies will be a force to be reckoned with going forward
- Tesla has respect for Chinese automakers but believes they have whats necessary to compete
Unified Vector Space
- Unified Vector Space would be if instead of knitting together dynamic & static objects w/ C++ you knit them together at the NN level (meaning you no longer need to reconcile them in C++ heuristics)
- Architecturally better way
- Slight improvement in efficiency of FSD stack and something they want to get to
- Nirvana situation would be to have surround video auto labeling for all static & dynamic objects as well as surround video inference w/ spacial memory
- Elon believes they have a unified vector space by the end of 2022
- Elon is also very confident that Tesla will improve the frame rate as they delete legacy NNs and further optimize the FSD software stack
- The goal is to get FSD Beta to operate at 36fps for all 8 cameras compared to the current 24 frames which will reduce latency when reacting to a dynamic environment
Inflation & Future Price Reductions
- They do not control so therefore Elon says take w/ grain salt but thinks inflation to decrease by end of 2022
- Carbon, steel, aluminum, etc are trending down in cost which should see impact later in 2022, early 2023
- Processing of lithium is insanely costly
- Elon again encouraging entrepreneurs to enter the lithium business as there are, “software margins”
- “License to print money” -Elon
Bitcoin
- Cryptocurrency is not something Tesla thinks about a lot according to Elon
- Main goal is production and addressing climate change by making sustainable energy & transport a reality
4680s
- Structural pack is a monumental step forward from a physics perspective and is the way to go
- Gained perspective through entering production w/ structural pack Teslas which proved their hypotheses
- Cost improvements are thanks to solving technical issues and scale
- They have saved 4-5kg in mass from the early cast Model Y underbodies since their initial production
- Plan is to reduce mass of castings and to include more parts (and to adapt vehicle to work better with castings)
- Cybertruck will be another big step in this area
- Making progress on 4680 production ramp but continuing to leverage supplier cells (2170s) to ramp Giga Berlin & Texas
- Total production ramp of 4680 packs to 1000 per week by end of the year (preferably earlier)
- Q2 @ Kato fully automated powder conveyance for the dry anode electrode tool there unlocking major improvements in production & yields too
- Production as a result has increased 35% MoM since March and yields throughout factory are already at targets or trending towards them
- Took learnings from Fremont cell & pack lines and built optimized lines in Giga Berlin & Texas
- Cell design was revved to unlock higher performance and manufacturing simplicity
- Lines were fully integrated and insourced additional content
- As a result new challenges for ramping in Giga Berlin & Texas
- Last quarter cell equipment was fully installed at Giga Texas and they have since produced their first commissioning car sets of 4680s cells
- The target for Texas is to begin mass producing 4680 cells in Q3 2022 with the goal of being able to exceed the weekly cell production capacity of the Kato battery plant by end of 2022
- Priority with 4680s initially is simplicity and scale, Tesla was not aiming to include all of the bells & whistles right off the bat
- As manufacturing goals are achieved they plan to layer in new material technologies into their structural packs (and increase range as well)
- Currently in regards to 4680s Tesla’s main focus is to remove low hanging issues that would prevent further production ramp
- Dry electrode anode & cathode are included in the current 4680 process which makes things harder to ramp (yet they continue to achieve success here)
- Once mass production achieved they plan to quickly iterate w/ an increase in energy density and overall performance soon thereafter
- Tesla cell production will continue to compliment production volumes from suppliers
- Fundamental rate limiter for transition to sustainable energy is rate of li-ion battery pack production
  - Not due to scarcity of raw materials, refining lithium in ultra high purity is quite difficult and requires massive amounts of machinery
  - Super difficult to create anode and cathode
  - Elon believes 2/3 of batteries in the future will be iron phosphate, maybe some with manganese
  - Tesla is actively working with suppliers to ramp as quick as possible
- Tesla is taking action by building their own Cathode plant at Giga Texas as well as taking the plunge into lithium refinement
FSD Development Progress & Andrej Departure
- While Andrej Karpathy will be missed (recent departure), Elon remains very bullish on current team of 120 people in software / AI group and believes that they will solve FSD by end of 2022
- No major setbacks or delays in FSD timeline should occur as a result of Andrej’s departure
- Elon believes they will raise FSD price just before they go to wide beta (targeted for end of 2022)
- Value of FSD is extremely high and not well understood by most people, Elon thinks its ridiculously cheap if promises of performance materialize
Semiconductor Supply Chain Constraints
- Tesla procures about 1600 unique pieces of silicon from 43 different companies
- Supply chains are more stable w/ latest generation of chips
- Chips from the analog & mixed signaling space still remain a challenge from a supply chain perspective
- Supply chain line of sight continues to match planned outputs for both factories (no constraints)
- Long term contracts already in place for key battery materials and so there are no concerns about future constraints
- Tesla does not plan to manufacture their own chips however they continue to work with suppliers to ensure future product goals are achieved
- Chip shortage forced Teslas to delete redundant chips and update software accordingly (big positive in hindsight)

Cybertruck
- Deliveries to begin by the middle of 2023
Vehicle Demand
- Vehicle demand not an issue for Tesla for the foreseeable future
- No sizable macro impact on demand
- Difference between value in money and affordability and why you can’t just keep increasing prices
- Elon feels that they have raised prices to “frankly embarrassing levels”
  - Supply chain and inflation are main culprits for price increases
  - Elon is hopeful Tesla can reduce prices soon
- Elon thinks its achievable to produce 40,000 vehicles per week by end of 2022
  - Teslas has already produced 30,000 vehicles per week many times, 40,000 vehicles per week is definitely in reach
  - Plan is to get Giga Berlin & Texas to ramp to 5,000 vehicles per week by end of 2022 and 10,000 vehicles per week by end of 2023
- Elon reaffirms that Tesla does not have a demand problem but instead a production problem

Elon’s Role At Tesla
- If there is only good news Elon won’t plan to join the future earnings calls
- Elon is committed to working at Tesla as long as he can continue to help advance the company
AI
- Elon didn’t want to steal thunder from AI day so he will save the news / updates regarding Dojo & Optimus for then

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You can follow Dan Burkland on Twitter at @DBurkland.

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The Backlash Against Tesla: Who’s Really Paying the Price?

March 22, 2025

By Not a Tesla App Staff

Chicago Police stand outside a Tesla Showroom.

Not a Tesla App

Elon Musk has always been a bit of a celebrity and not always one that has been well received. With his many different companies - including Tesla, SpaceX, Boring, Neuralink, X, and xAI, he’s spread throughout many high-tech fields and has a massive say in the way technology impacts the lives of many.

Most recently, Elon has taken to the fore of the US government under the Trump Administration and is running the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Here, he’s been tasked with reducing government spending.

These moves, in addition to what looked like an inappropriate hand gesture at a Republican rally last year, have led to him being labeled a Nazi - and those who own his cars or support his companies - as Nazi sympathizers. This is particularly true for Cybertruck owners.

We’re not calling for Elon to step down or stop - that’s beyond the scope of this opinion piece. Instead, we’re hoping that we make a point - harming real people and their property is a step too far, especially when they haven’t done anything other than spend their money or choose their place of employment.

Boycotts and Protests

Few CEOs are as active in politics as Elon is - and that’s made him and his companies the targets of protestors who don't agree with the changes and policies. This has led to boycotts of Tesla, protests outside factories, Supercharger sites, and showrooms.

Interestingly, some protestors at several locations throughout the United States have admitted they are being paid to protest. This isn’t surprising or new - political activist organizations sometimes bring in paid protestors to pad crowd numbers or guide the protestors toward their goals. While we can’t say whether this is true or not at this time, Elon appears to believe so, as per a post on X on the 8th of March.

Some of the protests have descended into violence, which has likely been escalated by people in a crowd mentality. An example of this is the incident at Tesla’s NYC Meatpacking showroom - where the crowd attempted to break down the doors and enter the showroom, putting the lives of innocent employees and customers at risk.

While protesting is a right, harming others and harming private property is not, regardless of personal beliefs or political opinions. This is what we’d like to emphasize here - harming or threatening Tesla’s employees and their customers isn’t making for a better world - it is hurting real people - members of your community. Some of them may have stood in solidarity with you just mere months ago at the voting booths, but now the simple ownership of a Tesla vehicle is considered extreme.

Vandalism and Who It Impacts

The protests are really just the tip of the iceberg. There have been ongoing and escalating incidents of vandalism - both at Tesla’s showrooms and Superchargers, as well as of private vehicles.

Vandalism is a crime - full stop. Attacking others and their private property with the intent to harm them isn’t an effective means to portray a message - it is political violence. Harming others is never the correct option - and is the worst way to push your message.

Vandalism of a private vehicle doesn't hurt Tesla. That vehicle will be repaired with parts sold by Tesla, paid for by the owner’s insurance. Those insurance costs will be passed down to customers everywhere - whether they’re Tesla-specific or not. Tesla will have made money replacing parts or replacing a vehicle because nearly 70% of Tesla’s customers continue to buy Tesla.

The vandalism isn’t focused on just private vehicles either - much of it has hit Tesla’s showrooms - which have been shot at in the US - and one was even burned down overnight in France. These vandals have also been targeting Tesla’s lots - and damaging cars on their way to customers. Once again, Tesla is insured against all of this - and will only be making replacement vehicles and fixing the damage - just like they did with the arson incident at a Supercharger site - where they replaced the Supercharger in under 48 hours.

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Superchargers are public charging infrastructure. Damaging them doesn’t just affect Tesla owners - it impacts all EV drivers. Many Supercharger sites are open to other electric vehicles and serve as a vital charging option, especially in remote areas where charging options may be limited.

Additionally, some Supercharger stations are sometimes partially or fully funded by government grants aimed at expanding EV infrastructure. Acts of vandalism only harm local communities by undermining efforts to build essential public resources.

Sales and Stock

Tesla’s stock and sales have also been hit hard by the recent boycotts and response to Elon’s political activity.

Several analysts are predicting that Tesla’s deliveries in Q1 2025 are expected to be the lowest in the last three years - which will likely be a big hit. On the flipside, Elon is still optimistic about the stock - and has mentioned that the long-term benefits of holding Tesla far outweigh the short-term tensions.

However, Tesla’s stock also swings heavily with the market and is one of the most actively traded stocks by retail investors - both regular stocks and options included. The US markets have been on a relatively downward trend, with the Trump administration telling people to tighten their belts and prepare for a potential recession in the coming months.

These indicators aren’t very clear - and the ramp of the refreshed Model Y will have an impact on sales as Tesla won’t be able to deliver as many vehicles as they normally do.

Musk Owns Only 12% of Tesla

At the end of the day, these protests and all this vandalism only serve one purpose. It hurts hardworking citizens of the countries these events are happening in - whether the United States, Canada, Germany, France, or others.

They don’t impact Elon as much because he owns a small percentage of Tesla. Elon owns 12.8% of Tesla as of February 28, 2025. There are several other large stakeholders who own nearly as much as he does - and hundreds of thousands of retail shareholders. His fortune is so large that even if he lost his entire stake in Tesla today, he’d still be worth over $200 billion.

This amount of money is almost unimaginable. If you were to be given $400,000 every single day since 0 BC - until today - you still wouldn’t be worth as much as Elon Musk. That amount of money is absolutely insane and ridiculous—when you consider how little it affects him and how much real harm it causes to everyday people, it’s clear it’s not the correct approach.

Tesla employs about 130,000 people worldwide. That’s 129,999 people who aren’t Elon Musk that are directly harmed by these actions, all for choosing to work at one of the most innovative tech companies - whose mission is to electrify the world.

Putting all that together - the protests, boycotts, and vandalism aren’t hurting Elon as much as they’re hurting everyone else. They’re hurting regular people. And these people who have been threatened or hurt are never going to look in the same direction as these misguided activists.

Instead, these would-be vandals would be better off redirecting their efforts to reach out to the political leaders in their regions and working on getting better representation - and ensuring that people come to the stands to vote next time there is an election. There is a proper, legal, and moral way to change someone’s mind - with discussion. Threats to damage their property and hurt them are not the way.

Wrapping it all up - harming people and their property is a crime - and it isn’t the way to change people’s minds in a democratic society. It does nothing to harm Elon Musk, and all it hurts are your neighbors and friends.

Tesla’s Sentry Mode Will Soon Play Music at Max Volume When Triggered

March 21, 2025

By Karan Singh

Not a Tesla App

Following Tesla’s Q1 2025 All-Hands Meeting, the company quietly updated the Cybertruck’s webpage. When we first checked it during our Live Space, nothing immediately stood out. At first glance, the changes seemed to be mostly stylistic—aligning the page’s format with the rest of Tesla’s site while adding a Cyber-inspired twist with unique fonts and boxed media elements.

But this morning, we took a closer look—because if there’s one thing Tesla loves, it’s hiding details in plain sight. And sure enough, we found an interesting change around Sentry Mode — playing loud music.

Sentry Mode Music

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Tesla quietly updated the Sentry Mode section on the Cybertruck’s about page, adding new text that reveals Sentry Mode will soon be able to play loud music when it’s triggered. The text on Tesla’s site states:

“Enable Sentry Mode to monitor your unattended vehicle or trailer, and automatically activate the alarm, increase the touchscreen brightness, and play music at max volume if a threat is detected.”

That last detail—playing music at max volume—is a brand-new addition to Sentry Mode. Tesla has already expanded Sentry’s coverage to also cover attached trailers and previously announced that the system may soon honk in response to vandalism.

This latest change appears to build on that, leveraging the Cybertruck’s Superhorn and external speaker, which can already play music when parked via the Boombox feature. We suspect this feature won’t rely on the internal speakers, as the music would have to be extremely loud in order to be heard outside the car.

And given how loud the Superhorn and external speakers are—powerful enough to function as a proper horn—this could be an effective deterrent for vandals or intruders.

Update: As some users have pointed out, Tesla does have a feature that Sentry Mode will play Bach on the internal speakers if the alarm is triggered while Sentry Mode is activated. It’s not completely clear whether that’s what Tesla was referring to on the new Cybertruck page, but it seems like it could be something different. Below is an example of the music that’s currently played:

Other Models Too?

While this feature was spotted on the Cybertruck’s page, it’s unlikely that it’ll be exclusive to the stainless steel beast. We did a quick scan of Tesla’s other vehicle pages, but the change hasn’t made it over to other pages yet. While not every Tesla vehicle includes a Superhorn, most are equipped with an external speaker for the Pedestrian Warning System (PWS)—which also powers the Boombox feature.

If your Tesla supports Boombox, it’s likely that Sentry Mode Music will roll out across the lineup once the update is released. However, legacy vehicles without a PWS will likely miss out on this feature.

Update: We clarified that other vehicles, like the new Model 3, also feature the same Superhorn as the Cybertruck, letting Tesla combine the traditional horn and PWS speaker into one external speaker — reducing yet another part.

When Will It Be Released?

To answer everyone’s favorite question, we know it’s not in Tesla’s 2025.8 update, which has recently started rolling out. Given the small 2025 releases so far (2025.2 and 2025.8), Tesla may be preparing a larger 2025 Spring Update similar to last year’s.

We’re about a month away from the arrival of Tesla’s Spring Update, and this could be one of the included features.

The real question is: Will Tesla allow custom sounds or music via USB? If so, the possibilities just got a whole lot more entertaining.