How Tesla's Master Plan Part 3 Will Change Everything
In 2006, Elon Musk released The Tesla Motors Master Plan. The first plan outlined how Tesla would build an expensive electric sports car, use that money to build a more affordable car, then use that money to build an even more affordable car. All while providing zero-emission electric power generation options. Tesla has since accomplished all of the above, producing millions of electric cars while rapidly bringing down production costs.
A decade later, in 2016, while the first plan was coming to fruition, Tesla released the Tesla Master Plan, Part Deux. In short, the plan would be to "Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage. Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments. Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning and enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it."
While this plan has yet to be fully realized, a third plan may indicate that the second plan is within reach. Tesla has made huge progress with its FSD beta program and Elon Musk recently doubled down that Tesla will release FSD later this year. The production of the CyberTruck and Semi is set to begin next year. As the second plan is coming together, Elon Musk tweeted that he’s working on Tesla's “Master Plan Part 3”
Working on Master Plan Part 3
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 17, 2022
Elon further hinted at the subject of the master plan in another recent tweet:
Main Tesla subjects will be scaling to extreme size, which is needed to shift humanity away from fossil fuels, and AI.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 21, 2022
But I will also Include sections about SpaceX, Tesla and The Boring Company.
This tweet gives us a lot more insight into what Tesla is planning. It is now clear that a key part of the plan will be to “scale to extreme size to shift humanity away from fossil fuels.”
Tesla has put out a 20 million vehicle target by 2030. It sounds like a third plan will address how to achieve or even exceed this target. Despite Tesla's massive growth, the automaker currently accounts for just roughly 1% of the total vehicle market share. Scaling to “extreme size” is necessary to make a significant shift away from fossil fuels. The limiting factor to further scaling is the manufacturing of batteries. In particular, the real bottleneck is the mining of rare earth minerals (copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt etc.) required for battery production.
This is why Tesla’s Master Plan, Part 3 could be centered around rare earth mineral mining. So how does the Boring Company, AI and SpaceX play into mining? One theory is that the Boring Company could create the necessary tunnels and land environment to extract raw materials. The Tesla bot could be used to safely and ethically mine raw materials. SpaceX could use starships to rapidly and cost-effectively transport raw materials across long distances. If the battery limiting factor is conquered successfully, the company could begin to think about other uses for batteries including HVAC systems, pre-built homes, and more.
It’s also possible that Tesla’s Master Plan, Part 3 will involve Tesla’s transition to an Artificial Intelligence and data company. After all, Elon has repeatedly stated that Tesla will be thought of more as an artificial intelligence company than anything else. The company has been focused on solving real-world AI and more recently we had AI day, introducing the Optimus Humanoid Robot.
In the product roadmap update on the Q4 earnings call, Elon stated that "the most important product development is the Optimus Humanoid Robot” which he thinks "has the potential to be more significant than the vehicle business over time. He explained that “labor is the foundation of the economy."
With no labor shortages, humanoid robots could revolutionize the world economy. They could also play a crucial role in scaling to extreme size and overcoming the limiting factor of battery manufacturing.
Here is a prediction of what the Master plan, Part 3 could include:
- Develop the best AI training supercomputer to solve real-world problems that goes way beyond just self-driving
- Remove battery manufacturing as the limiting factor to vehicle production by building millions of Tesla bots to eliminate the need for dangerous, boring, repetitive jobs (mining)
- Synergize The Boring Company, Tesla and SpaceX to mine and transport raw materials on a massive scale
What do you think Tesla aims to accomplish in its third master plan? Let us know.
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