Tesla AI day was last night and most of the event was an in-depth look at how Tesla is solving FSD and all the problems their solving and methods they're using. It definitely wasn't aimed at at the casual consumer.
There was some interesting video where they showed how the integration of all the cameras could predict where other traffic is located, and do it better than the combination of a few cameras combined with radar. We had to take their word for it that the camera integration did a better job. It did look that way on the computer views. Elon also pointed out that they use the Autopilot software not only to drive the car but to predict where the other cars on the road are likely to be in the next few seconds.
Later in the show, things got more interesting. They brought out a person dressed like a robot who danced around a bit. Elon came out again and showed a plan for a human-shaped Tesla robot. He admitted that the one that had danced around the stage wasn't the actual robot, but said that's what the Tesla robot would look like. The purpose of the robot is to perform chores that humans might find boring, repetitive, or dangerous.
Elon mentioned that Teslas are basically semi-sentient robots on wheels. He said that the human-shaped Tesla bot would come out next year. The robots will be friendly and will be able to navigate a world built for humans. They will be five feet eight inches tall and weigh 125 pounds, The face will be a computer screen. The hands will look like human hands and have five fingers. The Tesla bot will be able to walk at five miles/hour. That's faster than normal human walking speed, but most people can run faster than that.
Elon casually mentioned that most people could run away from it and most likely overpower it. He hoped it wouldn't be necessary, but, he said, “You never know.”
So then, he said that the robots would be able to shop for people, do chores around the house, and do repetitive jobs in the workplace. He admitted that having robots available to do jobs in the workplace would be a problem unless there was a universal basic income. That got a cheer from the audience. So I guess there were lots of Andrew Yang fans in the audience.
Then the question period started. The first question was asked of Musk, did he plan to make any of his software open-source? He said that creating it cost too much to just give it away, but he'd be willing to license it to other car companies.
Another interesting question was about whether audible cues would be incorporated into the FSD computer. Elon admitted that it would be important for a fully autonomous car to hear sirens from emergency vehicles, and he said that if someone was yelling at the car from the outside, a fully autonomous car should be able to understand what was being said. It'll be interesting how Tesla plans to tackle this problem for vehicles without external microphones.
Later, someone asked if FSD would work in other countries. Elon said that they were focusing first on the US, but the point was made that driving is very similar in other countries. Elon mentioned that they use training data from fifty countries and that the prime directive of FSD is, “Don't crash.” And that's true in every country. He says that right now, the car is pretty good at not crashing. Clearly, pretty good is not good enough since the drivers still need to pay attention, but the FSD is programmed to not crash into anything on the highway even if it's something it doesn't recognize like a UFO that just crashed on the highway.
I have to mention, here, an experience I had while FSD was engaged. I was driving along a road at night, and I saw a rock in the middle of the road. It was clear that the car didn't see it, and I had to quickly steer around it because it was too late to stop by the time the rock appeared in my headlights. Now I don't have the beta version of FSD, but it's clear Tesla still has some work to do here.
Later, someone asked what will happen with FSD once hardware 4 gets into production. Elon said that hardware 3 will be able to drive much better than any human driver once the software is finished. He says that hardware 4 will come out with the Cybertruck, and it will be able to drive better than hardware 3, but that doesn't mean that hardware 3 is unable to drive. He pointed out that not every regular human driver is the best driver on the road, but that doesn't mean that the regular driver isn't allowed to drive.
An amusing question got asked about whether the car could be spoofed by a picture. Elon suggested that he doesn't see many paintings of tunnels on rock walls as in Wiley E. Coyote cartoons. He mentioned that he has a T-shirt with a stop sign on the front. He says that if someone flashes a Tesla with such a T-shirt, the car will stop, but that Tesla will soon train edge cases like these and the car will learn what is a real stop sign versus a fake one.
Toward the end, someone asked whether we should worry that AI will have its own priorities that might be different from the priorities of the owners of the artificially intelligent robots. Elon said that right now, we're not anywhere near the kind of self-aware super-intelligent robots that people worry about. A car may be able to drive better than most humans. A robot may be able to do boring, repetitive or dangerous activities. That doesn't mean that cars and robots might rise up and rebel against humans. He's going to program his cars and his robots to be “Unequivocally good.”
Elon's final comment about cars was that eventually, cars will drive themselves just like elevators now drive themselves. You get in an elevator, press a button, and it takes you where you want to go. There aren't elevator operators anymore. Eventually, self-driving cars will be the norm. He says that there will still be a few gasoline cars and cars that need to be driven by a human being, just like now, there are still a few horses. But non-self-driving cars will be rare.
Elon Musk and SpaceX have set some ambitious dates for the first Mars landing. Musk envisions launching the Starship toward Mars by late 2026—less than two years away. There won’t be any humans on board in the initial launches. Instead, Optimus will fill in for humans. Musk stated that human landings could follow as early as 2029 to 2031.
There are certain windows that make flights to Mars feasible for humans. So SpaceX is aiming for humans to be a part of the second or third Earth/Mars launch windows from now, which are 5 to 7 years away.
Tesla continues advancing Optimus, and SpaceX remains relentless. Another Starship test launch is in the books, all while maintaining their steady weekly cadence of Dragon missions to space.
Starship departs for Mars at the end of next year, carrying Optimus.
Civilization On Earth
Musk goes on to state something interesting in another post on X. He says that the key will be whether “Earth’s civilizational technology level will last long enough to ensure Mars can grow by itself, even if supply ships from Earth stop coming.”
The statement suggests two possibilities—that Earth’s civilization collapses or fails to advance enough to solve unforeseen challenges of sustaining life on Mars.
The key concern is whether humanity will remain technologically and industrially capable long enough to ensure that Mars can eventually become self-sufficient. If Earth’s civilization weakens, either due to collapse, stagnation, or regression, Mars might not get the support it needs to reach full independence—leading to the colony’s failure.
Tossing Optimus on board Starship is a smart move, instead of having smaller, single-task robots. Optimus also has the advantage of being upgradeable on Mars as long as the hardware holds up. It could be a lot like what we saw with Tesla vehicles, where the hardware was present for many years before the vehicle was capable of driving on city streets. Optimus’ capabilities will also improve over time, even if the hardware is older.
But, how does Elon Musk envision Optimus’ role on Mars?
The answer might be simple. SpaceX can leverage a fleet of Optimus robots to assemble shelters and infrastructure before humans even arrive.
Optimus is already highly capable, with precise hands adept at manipulating tools and objects. On Mars, it could construct basic habitats, set up survival systems, and even handle ice processing, water recycling, and food production.
These facilities will be absolutely essential for the first humans to comfortably settle in and begin work on expanding, maintaining, and preparing for proper human settlement.
Beyond construction, Optimus has a major advantage—it doesn’t need oxygen. Instead, mission planners would only need to monitor battery levels, wear and tear, and any potential damage.
That said, even humanoid robots face risks. Martian dust has long been an obstacle in space exploration, clogging solar panels, damaging equipment, and causing malfunctions. Tesla will need to redesign Optimus to withstand the harsh conditions. Its joints and components will need to be sealed against Mars’ relentless environment.
Starship
Mechazilla catching Starship7 Rocket Booster for the first time ever! 🚀 Incredible Achievement by @spacex
Starship, the largest rocket ever built, is immensely capable—but still in its early testing phases. SpaceX has dedicated hundreds of hours between each flight test, refining and improving with every launch. With several Super Heavy booster catches now under their belt, the next challenge is proving Starship itself can land.
Once SpaceX can launch, complete a mission, and safely land both the booster and Starship, the dream of reaching Mars may no longer seem so far-fetched.
With that, Happy 23rd Anniversary, SpaceX! We’re with you all the way as you push humanity toward the stars.
Happy 23rd Anniversary to @SpaceX! Founded on March 14, 2002, and still pushing the limits of what’s possible, here’s to the next chapter of making life multi-planetary! pic.twitter.com/mzvrdEagAn
According to Chinese blog posts from earlier last week, now vetted by Reuters, Tesla intends to produce a cut-down version of the Model Y, initially for the Chinese market, sometime in 2026.
This follows the launch of Tesla’s cut-down Model 3 for Mexico, as well as news that Tesla intends to launch their new next-gen model sometime in the near future.
Cut Down, But How?
The new Model Y, internally referred to as Project E41, is designed to lower the entry price of Tesla’s popular SUV—one of the most compelling options on the market due to its size, range, and versatility, especially following the launch of the refreshed Model Y.
To achieve this, Tesla is reportedly aiming to reduce the Model Y’s total cost by nearly 20%, according to reports from China. While exact changes remain unknown, we can make informed guesses based on the cost-saving measures Tesla implemented in the scaled-down Model 3 for Mexico.
Textile Seats and Trim
One of the most noticeable changes in the cost-cut version of the Model 3 in Mexico was the removal of vegan leather throughout the interior. In its place, Tesla opted for a durable textile fabric for the seats, reducing material costs. Additionally, any Alcantara trim pieces were replaced with the same textile in various areas.
No Heated or Cooled Seats
Another major cost-cutting measure was the removal of heated and cooled seats, along with the heated steering wheel. While these feature reductions may seem minor, eliminating them reduces various things, such as electrical components, harnesses, and ductwork that are required for seat ventilation.
No Rear Screen
One of the more unexpected changes in the reduced-cost Model 3 was the removal of the rear screen, despite it being powered by the same front infotainment computer as the front display. Given that the screen functions primarily as an additional display rather than a standalone system, the cost to include it is extremely low. It’s one of those really smart additions Tesla has added that increases value for the consumer with minimal cost to Tesla.
Tesla is unlikely to redesign or modify the vehicle’s wiring harness for this change, meaning a rear screen could potentially be retrofitted later by the customer. Based on replacement part estimates, the screen likely costs Tesla between $5 and $20 per vehicle, which acts as a secondary monitor for the infotainment computer.
Ambient Lighting, Acoustic Glass, Speakers
The final set of changes also focuses on the interior. Tesla replaced the RGB-capable ambient lighting with a simpler white-only version—likely saving only a few dollars per vehicle. While this may seem like a minor and somewhat unexpected cut, it could serve as an upsell opportunity to the standard RWD variant.
Additionally, Tesla reduced the use of dual-pane acoustic glass, now limiting it to just the front windows and windshield. This change drastically cuts costs but also affects cabin noise levels. The dual-pane glass played a key role in making the refreshed Model Y noticeably quieter, so this downgrade will likely bring noise insulation closer to that of the original Model Y.
As for audio, Tesla scaled down the speaker system in the Mexican Model 3 from 17 speakers to just nine, while also removing the subwoofers and one of the audio amplifiers. While this cuts costs due to wiring and speakers, it also has a large impact on the audio quality in the vehicle.
Project E41 is Not the Next-Gen Model
It’s important to note that Project E41 is not the same as the upcoming, more affordable next-gen platform, which is internally referred to as Project Redwood. While Project E41 focuses on a reduced-cost version of the Model Y, Project Redwood is designed to test Tesla’s manufacturing capabilities, using their innovative unboxed assembly method to reduce both costs and production time. The goal is to create a vehicle that is smaller and more affordable, while also keeping it safe and capable of self-driving.
Tesla previously confirmed that they plan to unveil new models—distinct from cut-down versions of the Model 3 or Model Y—during their Q4 2024 Earnings Call. However, the executive team has been careful not to divulge too many details about the upcoming model during interviews. This suggests there may be a lot more that has yet to be unveiled.
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