Tesla has doubled-down on vision as they realize they can’t rely on a matrix of sensors in order to produce an accurate representation of the real world, which is required to achieve full self-driving.
With this information in hand, Tesla released their first vehicles without radar earlier this year. If you have a Model 3 or Model Y produced in May or later of 2021 in the US, then you have a vision only car that does not rely on radar.
Unfortunately, the down side to these vehicles right now is that the software hasn’t caught up with the functionality radar was providing yet.
There are many nuances between cars with radar and those without, but there are some major features that are missing from radar-less cars. Some of the missing features were Smart Summon and Emergency Lane Departure Avoidance. The cars were also limited to a maximum speed of 75 MPH (120 KPH) while on Autopilot, compared to a limit of 90 MPH for cars with radar.
That is until now. Tesla has apparently been working on adding these features back as quickly as possible for these newest vehicles. With software updates 2021.4.18.10 and 2021.4.18.11 Tesla has now added Smart Summon and Emergency Lane Departure Avoidance back to vision only vehicles. The maximum speed while on Autopilot has also been increased to 80 MPH in this release, up from 75 MPH.
These features appear to work very similarly to vehicles equipped with radar and Tesla is essentially recreating what radar provided (distance from objects) with image processing. Andrej Karpathy spoke at a conference two weeks ago where he described how Tesla is using vision to determine the distance of objects. It’s an interesting talk if you’re interested in some of the latest information on how Tesla is trying to achieve FSD.
With these major features added back to vision-only cars, Tesla has just about reached feature parity with cars that contain a radar sensor in just a short few months. The speed maximum limit while on Autopilot is still slightly below cars with radar, but 80 MPH seems to be very reasonable.
It’s clear that Tesla believes the future is vision and they will not be relying on other sensors such as radar. As software continues to improve and Tesla is able to more accurately represent distance with vision only, we expect all cars to move to a vision-only system and for radars to be disabled on older vehicles.
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Tesla has been struggling to provide FSD updates for vehicles with Hardware 3 (HW3). What was once thought to be enough compute power to solve autonomy, is no longer able to handle the latest FSD updates.
Yesterday, Tesla finally confirmed that vehicles with HW3 will need to be upgraded to achieve Unsupervised FSD.
HW3 Upgrade Finally Confirmed
Musk had previously suggested that an upgrade might be necessary and Tesla would upgrade these vehicles if needed. However, during yesterday’s earnings call, Musk admitted that HW3 vehicles will, in fact, need to be upgraded. Tesla said that these upgrades will be performed free of charge for owners who have purchased the FSD package, leaving subscribers wondering what will happen to their cars.
Musk stated, “That's going to be painful and difficult, but we'll get it done. Now I'm kinda glad that not that many people bought the FSD package haha.” This appears to confirm that Tesla doesn’t plan on upgrading HW3 on vehicles that subscribe to FSD.
What About Subscription-Based FSD Owners?
While there are a lot of questions, one of the bigger ones is what happens to owners who have subscribed to FSD. Tesla didn’t touch on the topic, but if they’re not planning to upgrade HW3 subscribers, then they could potentially offer a paid retrofit. When the Model 3 was first released, it came standard with HW 2.5. At the time, Tesla said that you won’t need anything better unless you plan to buy FSD. Tesla ended up upgrading owners who had bought FSD for free, but non-FSD owners were required to pay for an upgrade.
Based on previous hardware upgrades—such as the HW2.5 to HW3 transition—a paid upgrade could cost between $1,000 to $3,000. However, it’s not clear what the upgrade to HW3 vehicles will be or how much it will cost even if a paid upgrade becomes available.
FSD on HW3
Musk also hinted that FSD was not selling as well as Tesla had hoped, which likely influenced the introduction of subscription-based FSD.
Meanwhile, Tesla continues to improve HW3-based FSD. FSD V12.6 offers major improvements in smoothness and is considered a “baby V13” with notable improvements over V12.5.4.2. Reverse capabilities are also expected to arrive in a future release for HW3 vehicles, so Tesla hasn’t stopped development just yet. However, Musk was clear that HW3 will continue to lag behind HW4 releases moving forward.
FSD V14 and the Future of HW3
Tesla has stated that FSD V14 will be another significant step toward achieving Unsupervised FSD. The increasing complexity of FSD models and their growing context sizes mean that HW3 is already not able to run the larger FSD V13 models, but according to Tesla, V14 will increase the AI model even further, making it nearly impossible to run on HW3. As AI models become increasingly larger and AI5’s impending arrival approaches, one wonders how long before HW4 can’t run the latest models.
However, Tesla appears confident that HW4 will be sufficient, given its plans to launch FSD-powered robotaxis later this year.
What Will the HW3 Upgrade Look Like?
While Tesla has confirmed the HW3 upgrade, specific details remain unknown. We know that it won’t just be an upgrade to hardware 4 since that computer consumes more power than HW3’s electrical harness can provide, and it also has a different form factor, making retrofitting difficult.
Instead, Tesla will likely have to develop a new FSD hardware unit tailored for the retrofit or modify existing components to fit HW3-equipped vehicles. The hardware will need to be at least as computationally capable as HW4, but use the power of a HW3 unit.
Tesla has also said that it has no plans to replace cameras during the upgrade, despite HW3 cameras having significantly lower resolutions than HW4’s. While Tesla appears confident that this won’t be an issue, owners have reasons to be concerned as Tesla recently increased video processing resolution on HW4 cameras to improve FSD performance.
Tesla’s confirmation of an HW3 upgrade certainly makes more owners comfortable. However, the lack of details leaves subscribers and others wondering what will happen to their vehicles. It also doesn’t do much to ease the frustration of dealing with slower and less capable FSD releases, especially when they pay the same amount as HW4 owners, who receive more features and a smoother ride.
While free upgrades will be available for those who bought FSD outright, subscription-based owners are left in limbo, with no details on potential paid upgrade options.
With FSD V14 on the horizon and HW3 vehicles already struggling with the latest models, this upgrade will be crucial to keep existing owners happy.
Tesla continues to find efficiencies that lower vehicle production costs. In fact, at their earnings call, Tesla announced that their cost of goods (COGs) are now the lowest they’ve ever been. The other day, Tesla completed the Cybertunnel, an underground tunnel that goes underneath a highway, making it easier to get Cybertrucks to their loading lot, and now they’re incorporating FSD into the process.
Tesla announced that newly built vehicles at its Fremont factory now autonomously drive themselves from the end of the production line to the logistics lot, where they are prepared for delivery. This again increases efficiency and lowers vehicle costs.
Unsupervised FSD
Tesla isn’t just using FSD for this. For the first time outside of testing and the Robotaxi event, Tesla is using Unsupervised FSD.
While Unsupervised FSD is not yet ready for widespread public use, Tesla has implemented it in a controlled setting on private property. Without human intervention, the vehicles navigate a 1.2-mile route from the Fremont factory to their designated loading dock lanes. This allows Tesla to refine the software in a real-world environment while avoiding regulatory hurdles that apply to public roads.
One hurdle Tesla needed to overcome was camera calibration. Vehicles typically need to be driven for 20-25 miles on clearly marked roads for the cameras to be calibrated. Only once this process is complete, does FSD become available to the driver.
This meant that new owners weren’t able to experience FSD right after delivery and instead usually needed to wait a day or two before calibration was completed. However, Tesla now calibrates the cameras at the factory with presumably new methods so that the vehicle doesn’t need to be driven a bunch of miles before FSD is ready.
Calibration is now done automatically as the vehicle moves through the manufacturing line.
With Tesla’s Fremont factory successfully deploying Unsupervised FSD, attention now turns to Giga Texas and other factories globally. Fresh lane markings have recently been noticed at the logistics lot in Texas, suggesting that Tesla may soon introduce a similar process there.
Tesla recently completed the Cybertunnel, an underground tunnel connecting Giga Texas to the Cybertruck’s loading area. This tunnel shortens transportation time for Cybertrucks moving from the production floor to the logistics lot. When Tesla shared the Cybertunnel video, you could clearly see employees driving the Cybertrucks through the tunnel, but it’s likely just a matter of time before Cybertrucks navigate the Cybertunnel autonomously.
This new move by Tesla helps them continue testing and refining Unsupervised FSD while also reducing costs by eliminating manual driving from production to shipping lots. It also improves the new customer experience by having cameras calibrated and FSD ready to go at delivery. Tesla said years ago that one day, you’ll be able to order a Tesla, and it’ll drive itself to you. This process would further eliminate costs and speed up delivery times. While this may still be years away, it seems like we’re now one step closer.
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