Level 5 autonomy is the Holy Grail of modern driving technology. It is essentially the point at which autonomous vehicle will be wholly self-sufficient on the roads â€" to the point that they may not even have steering wheels or pedals for drivers. And while this level of self-driving technology still seems like science fiction to many, we may also be closer to it than we think.
As was noted in our recap of Tesla discussions with the DMV, Elon Musk has even suggested that FSD will be at level 5 by the end of this year. Tesla's own engineers are dubious of this prediction, but it still speaks to the rapid progress some industry leaders are aiming for.
This begs the most interesting question of all, which is not when we'll see level 5 autonomous vehicles, but rather what a future with such vehicles will be like. Even if we reach this level at some time in the next five years it will represent a massive leap forward into an era that would once have seemed virtually impossible. So what exactly will it look like?
Public Transport Will Change
For a while now people have predicted that fully autonomous vehicles will ultimately replace taxis, Uber, and Lyft, such that whole fleets of robotic cars will be available to pick us up and drop us off as needed. Last year, we got an interesting look at a concept car that could serve this purpose when an Observer article on a GM unveiling showed us a self-driving vehicle that almost resembled a tiny bus or tram car. And for that matter, there is also the distinct possibility (if not inevitability) that autonomous tech will be used in city buses as well.
Add all of these possibilities up, and you quickly come to recognize a wholly evolved form of public transportation. This is one aspect of the transition to level 5 that is troubling to some, because unfortunately it will almost certainly mean a lot of job (and "gig") loss. Nevertheless, in time we'll almost certainly be summoning autonomous vehicles to move around town.
Vehicle Interiors Will Be Unrecognizable
It seems likely enough that the very first level 5 cars will resemble what we're used to. They may not have steering wheels or pedals, but for the most part they'll look like nice, modern cars â€" because they will probably be ordinary modern cars adapted to level 5. Over time though, the fact that humans aren't needed to drive will likely result in completely changed interiors. We could see video screens for entertainment, chairs that swivel around to face the rear, lounge-style seating in ordinary sedans, and all kinds of other changes.
We'll Have Cyber Support for Cars
This is an interesting point to consider because it actually represents intersecting trends: that of progression toward autonomous vehicles, and that of general cybersecurity needs. Regarding the latter, our world already revolves so much around digital practices and automated systems that cybersecurity has become one of the busiest fields of work. Young people are studying the subject on their way up through school with the hopes of finding strong jobs in the field. And many working adults are pursuing cybersecurity via online courses, so as to qualify for what Maryville University's online bachelors in cybersecurity brochure describes as a "booming industry," with significant growth and six-figure salary positions.
In short, the digitization of our world is already giving rise to an army of cybersecurity experts, and it's a virtual certainty that they'll be needed in support of vast new networks of level 5 autonomous vehicles. We'll likely be replacing much of what we think of now as car service with software updates, security patches, and general cyber support. Maintaining a vehicle may well be more like maintaining a computer than a present-day gas car.
Gas & Service Stations Will Vanish
As mentioned just above, a lot of the regular maintenance for level 5 vehicles will concern digital adjustments. We'll download system updates and check in with cyber experts now and then, perhaps through entirely digital means. We won't, however, conduct ordinary maintenance as we think of it today, from loading up on gas to pulling into a station for an oil change or engine tune-up. Accordingly, gas and traditional service stations will begin to vanish, and perhaps one day completely disappear.
A New World of Regulations & Rules Will Emerge
One of the more pessimistic assessments of self-driving progress we've seen of late came via an article by Swinburne University of Technology professor, who argued that for several reasons we're still pretty far off. We could quibble with the tech argument to no end, but the interesting point made by said professor was that regulations are not yet in place to manage a society full of level 5 autonomous vehicles. This is indeed a large problem that will take time to solve, and which may delay the transition to self-driving vehicles even if and when the tech is all in place.Eventually though, it will be worked out, and a whole new world of road regulations and rules will emerge. The hope is that vehicles will seamlessly follow these rules and we won't have too much to worry about. But there will still be adjustments to make.
Throw in the fact that autonomous vehicles will be significantly more efficient and thus drastically better for our environment, and this all sounds pretty exciting! Here's hoping the self-driving future arrives sooner rather than later.
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There has been extensive reporting on what the long-anticipated affordable EV option would become, and we’ve seen numerous news stories mentioning that it was delayed or even arriving on time. The executive team revealed the near-term and long-term plans for Tesla’s upcoming vehicles, and there’s definitely good news to share here.
Updated Timeline
The most important piece of news is that despite all the talk of delays from supposed inside sources, Tesla has confirmed that the plan for its more affordable model remains on schedule for production to begin in the first half of 2025. Tesla’s executive team narrowed that timeline down further - and said that they expect production to kick off as soon as June and that the new model will be in the market shortly thereafter.
While the production timeline itself is on track, Tesla did note that the subsequent ramping process will likely be slower than initially hoped, citing global tariff and financial impacts as challenges to overcome to prepare its production lines.
Hybrid Production Approach
Tesla has once again confirmed that this will not be their next-generation vehicle, built using new production methods. Instead, they outlined a relatively more pragmatic approach for this new model.
Tesla will utilize aspects of both the next-generation platform as well as some parts of its current platforms (namely the Model 3 and Model Y). This means that Tesla will produce this new vehicle on the same manufacturing lines as the Model 3 and Model Y.
This strategy allows Tesla to bring the vehicle to the market more quickly, while also managing capital expenditures more efficiently by using existing infrastructure. However, Tesla’s executive team also noted that this approach, while faster, will result in fewer cost reductions than what might have been achieved with an entirely new platform and dedicated manufacturing process.
Vehicle Design
Using these existing production lines means that Tesla’s new vehicle will likely share some considerable similarities with either the existing Model 3 or Model Y. Rather than being a radically different and smaller vehicle, this new model will resemble the overall form factor and shape of Tesla’s current core offerings, while being optimized for a lower cost.
This doesn’t mean that Tesla is forgetting the overall goal here. Their ultimate goal is to reduce the initial cost of ownership and lower monthly payments for customers while maintaining a standard of excellence and safety.
Not Unboxed
Both at this Earnings Call and previous ones, Tesla has indicated that this new vehicle will not be using the innovative unboxed assembly method, at least for the time being. That relatively unique method will be developed and implemented specifically for the purpose-built Cybercab and for future vehicles on the next-generation platform.
We’re just a few days away from May, so it won’t be long before we see more about this upcoming vehicle. Stay tuned.
In a follow-up move to the current US administration’s goals to introduce a federal framework for autonomous vehicles, the US Department of Transportation (USDOT) is loosening autonomy restrictions following an announcement from Secretary Sean Duffy on X. This new initiative helps streamline complex regulatory processes and foster home-grown innovation.
From the Wright Brothers to the first astronauts on the moon, our nation has always been at the forefront of transportation technology.
That’s why today we're unveiling a new Automated Vehicle Framework from @USDOT’s Innovation Agenda ⬇️ ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/W3kbMUwQSn
As part of the broader upcoming USDOT Innovation Agenda, the newly unveiled AV Framework is designed to promote American innovation and strengthen domestic engineering while maintaining existing safety standards. The framework centers around three key principles:
Prioritize Safety
Unleash Innovation
Enable Commercial Deployment
To kickstart this AV framework, USDOT announced two initial steps focused on streamlining processes and expanding opportunities.
Crash Reporting Requirements
Under the first principle to Prioritize Safety, the National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration (NHTSA) will maintain its Standing General Order requiring crash reporting on Advanced and Automated Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS and ADS).
However, the reporting process will be streamlined following feedback from AV innovators, likely including Tesla. The goal here is to focus on collecting critical safety information while removing unnecessary or duplicative items from the reporting process, thereby reducing the burden without compromising safety.
Cutting Red Tape
Directly tied to the second principle of Unleash Innovation, the framework also seeks to slash red tape. The first step here is the expansion of the Automated Vehicle Exemption Program, or AVEP. This program allows manufacturers to petition for temporary exemptions from certain federal motor vehicle safety standards (FMVSS) for testing or deployment purposes.
Previously, the standard excluded domestically produced vehicles. Now, domestically produced AVs will not need to meet FMVSS, which will broaden the scope for manufacturers to test more innovative and unique designs and technologies.
Single National Standard for AVs
Finally, tied to the third principle of Enable Commerical Development, USDOT intends to move the United States closer to a single national standard for autonomous vehicles. This aims to prevent a confusing and inefficient patchwork of state-level or city-level laws and regulations, which can create hurdles for companies attempting to innovate, deploy, and scale their technology.
A unified standard across the United States also means that Canada and Mexico will likely be able to follow, as they share homologization standards across North America, including for vehicle crash safety and some autonomy regulations.
What This Means for Tesla
These framework changes will likely have a substantial impact on Tesla. The move towards a national standard is potentially the most impactful change, as Tesla identified regulatory hurdles as one of the most significant challenges it will face with the deployment of both Unsupervised FSD and its Robotaxi network.
The reduction of FMVSS requirements and streamlined reporting will likely play a role in the future as well. The FMVSS requirements are probably already being worked on, if not already met, by the Cybercab and other vehicles in Tesla’s lineup.
Meanwhile, the streamlined reporting will be helpful once Tesla officially launches its Robotaxi network in June.
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