This was an email about a conversation that the California DMV had with the engineers who are creating the software for Full Self Driving at Tesla. The email was dated March 9th about a phone conversation that had just been held.
Tesla said that there were currently 824 vehicles in the program, 753 employees and 71 nonemployees. The plan was to expand the number of beta testers to approximately 1600 people.
The DMV asked about how Tesla communicated with each potential beta tester. For the first 824 people, they called each one individually and discussed the capabilities and limitations of the system, and they got informed consent. Tesla said they were working on a video for new participants, and they promised to share the video with the DMV.
The DMV asked about the “Button” that Musk promised in a tweet. The engineers couldn’t comment on the “Button.” DMV asked about how additional participants would be selected, and the engineers said they would include referrals from current beta testers, and that they’d be vetted by checking on the auto insurance claims of potential new beta testers.
So when Elon Musk tweeted that FSD had no accidents yet, he was referring to a group of drivers that had been selected for safe driving histories.
DMV asked how beta testers sent feedback to Tesla, and, no surprise, they sent feedback by email or snail mail. Instances, when the FSD was overridden by the driver, were sent back to Tesla along with a video feed so that software engineers and the neural network could make improvements in the next iteration of the beta FSD software.
Then DMV asked Tesla about Elon Musk’s tweet that FSD would be at level 5 by the end of the calendar year. The engineers really tried to be supportive of their boss. They said he was extrapolating based on the amount of improvement they’d seen so far. But they said that the beta FSD is still firmly in level 2. The driver must be constantly involved in the driving process and must be ready at any second to take control. Their criterion for going to level five, full vehicle autonomy, would be one driver interaction with the system every one to two million miles. The engineers that are actually working on the system are not as confident about achieving level five autonomy this year as Elon is.
The engineers told DMV that they test the software by driving with it. They would know when a new release is going up a level. Right now, even the beta FSD is still in level 2. That means that the car can steer, accelerate and decelerate, start and stop, but human control could be required at any time.
Level 3 would mean that the car could drive itself most of the time, but the human would have to be alert for needed intervention. Level 4 would mean that the car drives itself all the time within certain areas and on certain types of roads.
Level 5 would mean that there would be no need for human controls because the car could go anywhere safely without any human supervision. Presumably, a level 5 autonomous car could drop its passengers off at their destination and then find a place to legally park. It would have to be able to read parking rule signs, and it would have to be able to pay for parking if paid parking was all that was available.
So my assessment of this information is that we can’t expect level five autonomy this year, but we can expect a wider availability of the beta version of FSD. But not everyone will get the “Button.” Tesla will check your driving record because, sadly, there are people who drive Teslas without paying attention even now, when even the beta FSD is still in level 2, not autonomous at all.
There has been extensive reporting on what the long-anticipated affordable EV option would become, and we’ve seen numerous news stories mentioning that it was delayed or even arriving on time. The executive team revealed the near-term and long-term plans for Tesla’s upcoming vehicles, and there’s definitely good news to share here.
Updated Timeline
The most important piece of news is that despite all the talk of delays from supposed inside sources, Tesla has confirmed that the plan for its more affordable model remains on schedule for production to begin in the first half of 2025. Tesla’s executive team narrowed that timeline down further - and said that they expect production to kick off as soon as June and that the new model will be in the market shortly thereafter.
While the production timeline itself is on track, Tesla did note that the subsequent ramping process will likely be slower than initially hoped, citing global tariff and financial impacts as challenges to overcome to prepare its production lines.
Hybrid Production Approach
Tesla has once again confirmed that this will not be their next-generation vehicle, built using new production methods. Instead, they outlined a relatively more pragmatic approach for this new model.
Tesla will utilize aspects of both the next-generation platform as well as some parts of its current platforms (namely the Model 3 and Model Y). This means that Tesla will produce this new vehicle on the same manufacturing lines as the Model 3 and Model Y.
This strategy allows Tesla to bring the vehicle to the market more quickly, while also managing capital expenditures more efficiently by using existing infrastructure. However, Tesla’s executive team also noted that this approach, while faster, will result in fewer cost reductions than what might have been achieved with an entirely new platform and dedicated manufacturing process.
Vehicle Design
Using these existing production lines means that Tesla’s new vehicle will likely share some considerable similarities with either the existing Model 3 or Model Y. Rather than being a radically different and smaller vehicle, this new model will resemble the overall form factor and shape of Tesla’s current core offerings, while being optimized for a lower cost.
This doesn’t mean that Tesla is forgetting the overall goal here. Their ultimate goal is to reduce the initial cost of ownership and lower monthly payments for customers while maintaining a standard of excellence and safety.
Not Unboxed
Both at this Earnings Call and previous ones, Tesla has indicated that this new vehicle will not be using the innovative unboxed assembly method, at least for the time being. That relatively unique method will be developed and implemented specifically for the purpose-built Cybercab and for future vehicles on the next-generation platform.
We’re just a few days away from May, so it won’t be long before we see more about this upcoming vehicle. Stay tuned.
In a follow-up move to the current US administration’s goals to introduce a federal framework for autonomous vehicles, the US Department of Transportation (USDOT) is loosening autonomy restrictions following an announcement from Secretary Sean Duffy on X. This new initiative helps streamline complex regulatory processes and foster home-grown innovation.
From the Wright Brothers to the first astronauts on the moon, our nation has always been at the forefront of transportation technology.
That’s why today we're unveiling a new Automated Vehicle Framework from @USDOT’s Innovation Agenda ⬇️ ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/W3kbMUwQSn
As part of the broader upcoming USDOT Innovation Agenda, the newly unveiled AV Framework is designed to promote American innovation and strengthen domestic engineering while maintaining existing safety standards. The framework centers around three key principles:
Prioritize Safety
Unleash Innovation
Enable Commercial Deployment
To kickstart this AV framework, USDOT announced two initial steps focused on streamlining processes and expanding opportunities.
Crash Reporting Requirements
Under the first principle to Prioritize Safety, the National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration (NHTSA) will maintain its Standing General Order requiring crash reporting on Advanced and Automated Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS and ADS).
However, the reporting process will be streamlined following feedback from AV innovators, likely including Tesla. The goal here is to focus on collecting critical safety information while removing unnecessary or duplicative items from the reporting process, thereby reducing the burden without compromising safety.
Cutting Red Tape
Directly tied to the second principle of Unleash Innovation, the framework also seeks to slash red tape. The first step here is the expansion of the Automated Vehicle Exemption Program, or AVEP. This program allows manufacturers to petition for temporary exemptions from certain federal motor vehicle safety standards (FMVSS) for testing or deployment purposes.
Previously, the standard excluded domestically produced vehicles. Now, domestically produced AVs will not need to meet FMVSS, which will broaden the scope for manufacturers to test more innovative and unique designs and technologies.
Single National Standard for AVs
Finally, tied to the third principle of Enable Commerical Development, USDOT intends to move the United States closer to a single national standard for autonomous vehicles. This aims to prevent a confusing and inefficient patchwork of state-level or city-level laws and regulations, which can create hurdles for companies attempting to innovate, deploy, and scale their technology.
A unified standard across the United States also means that Canada and Mexico will likely be able to follow, as they share homologization standards across North America, including for vehicle crash safety and some autonomy regulations.
What This Means for Tesla
These framework changes will likely have a substantial impact on Tesla. The move towards a national standard is potentially the most impactful change, as Tesla identified regulatory hurdles as one of the most significant challenges it will face with the deployment of both Unsupervised FSD and its Robotaxi network.
The reduction of FMVSS requirements and streamlined reporting will likely play a role in the future as well. The FMVSS requirements are probably already being worked on, if not already met, by the Cybercab and other vehicles in Tesla’s lineup.
Meanwhile, the streamlined reporting will be helpful once Tesla officially launches its Robotaxi network in June.
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