Elon Musk said back in December 2020 that a FSD subscription would be made available next year. He has recently said that it’s coming this month and that it won’t be tied to the wider release of the FSD v9 beta which is expected in May or June. You can probably guess why these two features have similar timelines as Tesla expects FSD v9 to help sell the FSD subscriptions. The new FSD v9 release is also expected to have brand new vector-space visualizations.
We’re now in May and the FSD subscription should be falling upon us any day now. In our initial reporting of the FSD subscription, we talked about why it was smart for Tesla to also offer a FSD subscription in addition to a one-time purchase package. You can read more about those reasons here, but they mostly have to do with the hefty price tag of $10,000, which is a tough pill to swallow for most and also that there are some instances where buying the FSD package outright doesn't make sense, for example if you’re leasing your car.
Here’s what to expect in Tesla’s announcement
The average new car length ownership in the US is 8.4 years. The FSD package currently costs $10,000 USD. So if you take the cost of the package and divide it by the length of car ownership, you get a price of $99/month.
Now, there are probably a few reasons why Tesla wouldn’t want to create a $99/month FSD option, even though it’s a very attractive price.
First, if Tesla were to release a $99/month option, they’d be sure to annoy a whole lot of loyal supporters who spent $10,000 up front when they bought their cars and only had a fraction of the FSD features available.
Secondly, Tesla would much rather you buy the FSD package up front instead of paying for it monthly. By doing that, not only do they have $10k to invest into resources right away, but they also essentially got you to commit to pay for FSD every month for 8-plus years.
So what is a good price? $149 seems plausible. For drivers who have leased their cars for three-years then it’d be a total cost of about $5,300 over the course of the three-years instead of their only other alternative right now, which is the full $10,000 package. This may tip the boat in Tesla’s favor for many.
You can certainly bet that Tesla is closely analyzing the percentage of buyers who currently buy the FSD package today and how many of those buyers they would lose if they were to offer a monthly subscription. The answer to that question lies in whether they would make more through FSD subscriptions than what they’d lose in upfront payments.
If we look at the possibility of a $199/month subscription then we’re looking at someone paying $7,200 over three-years, which seems just way too close to the full price of $10,000 to make sense. That’d be paying over $20k over that 8 year period.
Now, if Tesla were a traditional company, I would feel pretty comfortable with expecting a $149/month FSD subscription becoming available this month. But if there’s one thing that Tesla has taught us over the years, is that there is always a price early adopters pay.
The price of Tesla’s cars has dropped dramatically in some cases. Some folks paid more for an AWD Model 3 then what the Performance model ended up costing later on. Elon Musk has often commented on this; saying that technology gets cheaper and early adopters are often helping pave the road for the future.
Whether Tesla releases a $99/month or $199/month FSD subscription completely depends on how many buyers are buying the FSD package today. I have a feeling it’s rather low or Tesla wouldn’t be considering a monthly subscription in the first place.
As a reader has pointed out, it's possible that Tesla may require a minimum commitment in order to subscribe to FSD at $99/month. This could be used to prevent owners from only subscribing during roadtrips. It could also help offset the costs of any hardware needed to allow FSD, such as upgrading the car's Autopilot hardware from 2.5 to 3.0. Elon Musk has already said that the FSD subscription would cover any hardware needed. A minimum commitment could be one or two-years.
A FSD subscription has the advantage that it is not tied to a particular vehicle, you could subscribe to it in one vehicle, then switch it to another a year or two later. That may be the biggest issue early adopters will have who paid full price for FSD at $7,000 or $10,000. Tesla may allow a one-time transfer of the FSD license for these owners as this has become a popular topic that has yet to be addressed by Elon. It's also possible that Tesla may limit FSD subscriptions to personal use and they would not be able to be used for robotaxis in the future.
We expect Tesla to announce a FSD subscription as low as $99, or as high as $149, in the US very soon.
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Just like how Carscoops spotted the refreshed Model S, they also spotted the refreshed Model Y, and this time, it was likely the Performance variant.
When Tesla launched the Launch Edition of the refreshed Model Y, they opened the floor to orders for the Rear-Wheel Drive (later introduced to the U.S.) and All-Wheel Drive Long Range variants, but not for the Performance model. This was the same strategy that was used with the refreshed Model 3, whose performance version launched months after the new Model 3.
We’ve already seen some covered-up refreshed Model Ys at Giga Texas, so it seems almost certain that Tesla is in their final evaluation phases prior to this variant’s launch.
With that said, let’s dive into what we saw at the ‘Ring.
Minor Exterior Updates
The Nürburgring prototype was fully wrapped in a white and black camouflage, but thanks to the crisp photos, we got some detailed looks at the exterior of the vehicle. A new and more distinct spoiler is on the rear hatch, similar to the previous generation’s Performance model. That spoiler is likely carbon fiber and will also likely make its way to the Tesla store in the future as a cosmetic add-on for non-Performance buyers.
That spoiler is super noticeable from the side.
Carscoops
Carscoops also noticed that the vehicle was sitting noticeably closer to the ground than the refreshed Model Y Long Range. We’re expecting Tesla to include an adaptive suspension system, similar to the one that arrived with the Model 3 Performance. These adaptive suspensions can adjust to driver and road input in real-time with adaptive damping.
Interestingly, the front fascia looks relatively unchanged, lacking the dedicated brake cooling ducts that the Model 3 Performance has.
Powertrain
As usual with Tesla, we haven’t heard anything in terms of official specs on the powertrain for this Performance variant, but we can make some good guesses. The Model 3 Performance and Model Y Performance usually sport the same amount of horsepower, so we’re guessing that the refreshed Model Y Performance will also have 510 HP. That gives it about a 3.2-second 0-60 mph (0-100km/h), which is a generous upgrade from the previous generation’s 3.5-second speed at 470 hp.
Wheels & Brakes
On the ‘Ring, the refreshed Model Y Performance is sporting new alloy wheels that are reminiscent yet slightly distinct from the Model S Arachnid wheels. These new Performance wheels also look like they’re a staggered setup, similar to the rest of Tesla’s performance lineup, which means wider rear wheels for better traction and handling. Alongside the red brake calipers, we expect that there are larger, performance-optimized brakes to handle track days.
Pretty Arachnid-looking wheels. We like them!
Carscoops
Performance Launch Date?
Given the fact that this is only the second time we’ve seen the refreshed Model Y Performance, we expect the launch to be a couple of months out. Tesla is still likely working on optimizing the adaptive suspension characteristics and fine-tuning Track Mode 3.0 for the vehicle, and hopefully also designing some unique Performance seats to go with it all.
We’d expect Tesla to launch this variant sometime in late Q3 or early Q4 2025, which is still a few months away. Perhaps the new Model S and Model X will also launch alongside it? That may just make a great Tesla event.
Carscoops, which keeps a close eye on racetracks around the world for new models in testing, has spotted what appears to be the refreshed Model S at Nürburgring in Germany. Tesla is testing out the new Model S, which is likely a Plaid, on the track. Tesla was taking this new Model S for some laps around the track, which serves as an excellent testing ground for high-performance vehicles like the Model S Plaid.
The updated Model S was seen wearing some white and black camouflage over the front and rear, but from the photos that were provided, the changes appear to be relatively minimal and focused on aerodynamics, at least on the exterior.
Not a Juniper-Level Refresh
Tesla’s VP of Engineering, Lars Moravy, mentioned that Tesla was working on updating the Model S and Model X. However, he didn’t quite say just how much of a refresh was on its way. Lars’ comments were very general, and he didn’t mention any details.
Based on what we’ve observed at the ‘Ring,’ this Model S refresh doesn’t appear to be a full-blown Model Y Juniper level refresh, which included a light bar, new headlights, and other substantial changes to the rear and front of the vehicle.
New Front Bumper Camera
At first glance, the front fascia looks remarkably similar to the existing Model S, but there are a few key differences.
First up is the addition of a new lower lip spoiler mounted at the very bottom of the front bumper. These spoilers help to improve aerodynamic efficiency and downforce at high speeds, which is entirely appropriate for a vehicle that thrives on tracks like the Nürburgring.
On the other hand, the distinctive headlights and eyeliner-style running lights appear to remain intact, keeping the overall look of the front relatively similar. Tesla has kept the black space with the Tesla logo at the front of the vehicle. While it’s difficult to tell on the front shots, you can tell it’s still there from the side shots.
Another little item was the return of the front bumper camera. Tesla is shipping both the refreshed Model Y and the Cybertruck with a bumper camera, so it isn’t surprising to see this, but it is one of the best indications that this is a new vehicle being tested.
Can you spot the little nub with the bumper camera?
CarScoops
Wheels & Brakes
The prototype was spotted sporting some new alloy racing wheels that bear a distinctive resemblance to the Photon wheels that ship with the Model 3. If you take off the aero covers from the Photon wheels, they look exceptionally similar. This seems relatively odd, as Tesla’s top-end performance wheels are usually distinctively different from other wheel options.
We also saw the currently-available Arachnid wheels on the same Model S being tested, on the way to and from the track. Tesla likely switched out to these new wheels to test their performance and handling characteristics on the track.
The original Arachnids on this Model S tester
CarScoops
Rear End
From the available images, the rear end of this new test vehicle appears to be largely unchanged. The tail light design, bumper shape, and overall profile look essentially the same as today’s Model S, which means that Tesla’s work has likely focused on the front of the vehicle.
The rear diffuser looks a bit different, but seems essentially the same.
Not a Tesla App
What Else?
With the exterior changes appearing to be relatively minimal, it’s plausible that more significant updates could be found within the cabin. Tesla could be working on interior updates that help bring the new Model S more in line with the new Model 3 and Model Y.
A focus point for Tesla may be the Model S Plaid’s powertrain. The S Plaid used to hold several records, at least until the Lucid Air Sapphire and Rimac Nevera came along to steal the trophies. Tesla could be improving both the front and rear motors, as well as the other portions of the drivetrain needed to grab a podium finish once again, which would be just as exciting as Plaid+ being announced again.
Given the minimalistic changes to the exterior, it seems unlikely that Tesla has made drastic changes to the vehicle as a whole, though. We don’t expect this updated version of the Model S to launch with Steer-by-Wire or any of the other new technologies pioneered by the Cybertruck. Although Tesla says they will be used in future vehicles, even Juniper launched without these Cybertruck upgrades.
Tesla could still surprise everyone, as is their habit with vehicle announcements, but we’re expecting a slightly faster, slightly cooler-looking Model S at this point.
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