Elon Musk said back in December 2020 that a FSD subscription would be made available next year. He has recently said that it’s coming this month and that it won’t be tied to the wider release of the FSD v9 beta which is expected in May or June. You can probably guess why these two features have similar timelines as Tesla expects FSD v9 to help sell the FSD subscriptions. The new FSD v9 release is also expected to have brand new vector-space visualizations.
We’re now in May and the FSD subscription should be falling upon us any day now. In our initial reporting of the FSD subscription, we talked about why it was smart for Tesla to also offer a FSD subscription in addition to a one-time purchase package. You can read more about those reasons here, but they mostly have to do with the hefty price tag of $10,000, which is a tough pill to swallow for most and also that there are some instances where buying the FSD package outright doesn't make sense, for example if you’re leasing your car.
Here’s what to expect in Tesla’s announcement
The average new car length ownership in the US is 8.4 years. The FSD package currently costs $10,000 USD. So if you take the cost of the package and divide it by the length of car ownership, you get a price of $99/month.
Now, there are probably a few reasons why Tesla wouldn’t want to create a $99/month FSD option, even though it’s a very attractive price.
First, if Tesla were to release a $99/month option, they’d be sure to annoy a whole lot of loyal supporters who spent $10,000 up front when they bought their cars and only had a fraction of the FSD features available.
Secondly, Tesla would much rather you buy the FSD package up front instead of paying for it monthly. By doing that, not only do they have $10k to invest into resources right away, but they also essentially got you to commit to pay for FSD every month for 8-plus years.
So what is a good price? $149 seems plausible. For drivers who have leased their cars for three-years then it’d be a total cost of about $5,300 over the course of the three-years instead of their only other alternative right now, which is the full $10,000 package. This may tip the boat in Tesla’s favor for many.
You can certainly bet that Tesla is closely analyzing the percentage of buyers who currently buy the FSD package today and how many of those buyers they would lose if they were to offer a monthly subscription. The answer to that question lies in whether they would make more through FSD subscriptions than what they’d lose in upfront payments.
If we look at the possibility of a $199/month subscription then we’re looking at someone paying $7,200 over three-years, which seems just way too close to the full price of $10,000 to make sense. That’d be paying over $20k over that 8 year period.
Now, if Tesla were a traditional company, I would feel pretty comfortable with expecting a $149/month FSD subscription becoming available this month. But if there’s one thing that Tesla has taught us over the years, is that there is always a price early adopters pay.
The price of Tesla’s cars has dropped dramatically in some cases. Some folks paid more for an AWD Model 3 then what the Performance model ended up costing later on. Elon Musk has often commented on this; saying that technology gets cheaper and early adopters are often helping pave the road for the future.
Whether Tesla releases a $99/month or $199/month FSD subscription completely depends on how many buyers are buying the FSD package today. I have a feeling it’s rather low or Tesla wouldn’t be considering a monthly subscription in the first place.
As a reader has pointed out, it's possible that Tesla may require a minimum commitment in order to subscribe to FSD at $99/month. This could be used to prevent owners from only subscribing during roadtrips. It could also help offset the costs of any hardware needed to allow FSD, such as upgrading the car's Autopilot hardware from 2.5 to 3.0. Elon Musk has already said that the FSD subscription would cover any hardware needed. A minimum commitment could be one or two-years.
A FSD subscription has the advantage that it is not tied to a particular vehicle, you could subscribe to it in one vehicle, then switch it to another a year or two later. That may be the biggest issue early adopters will have who paid full price for FSD at $7,000 or $10,000. Tesla may allow a one-time transfer of the FSD license for these owners as this has become a popular topic that has yet to be addressed by Elon. It's also possible that Tesla may limit FSD subscriptions to personal use and they would not be able to be used for robotaxis in the future.
We expect Tesla to announce a FSD subscription as low as $99, or as high as $149, in the US very soon.
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On March 27, the U.S. Administration announced a 25% tariff on all imported vehicles and foreign-made automotive parts, an attempt to strengthen domestic manufacturing. Currently, Tesla and Rivian stand out as the major EV automakers with a predominantly U.S.-built lineup.
In this analysis, we’ll explore the potential impact of these tariffs, examining key factors and what they mean for the industry moving forward.
Percentage of American Parts
One key item we want to point out here before we continue is that the NHTSA defines North American made parts as parts built in either the United States or Canada - Mexico is not included in this number. In November 2024, we found out the percentage of parts Tesla uses that come from the U.S. and Canada. At the top we have Tesla’s Model 3, which uses 75% North American parts.
We’ll be sticking with overall percentage of North American parts since we don’t actually know what percentage Tesla sources from Canada. We do know today that some cameras, essential die parts, and other key components are sourced from Canada for nearly every vehicle in Tesla’s lineup - so it isn’t an insignificant percentage.
Insulated from Tariffs?
At first glance, Tesla may seem insulated from these tariffs. However, its dependence on a global supply chain—particularly parts moving across the U.S.-Canada border under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)—adds complexity to the equation. Additionally, potential retaliatory tariffs from Canada could further pressure Tesla, a trend already evident in the company being excluded from multiple EV incentives across the country.
While Canada isn’t Tesla’s largest market, it still accounts for a meaningful share of sales. Even a small decline in that market could have a noticeable impact on the company’s bottom line.
Domestic Advantage
Tesla’s domestic advantage is impressive—it manufactures all vehicles sold in North America at just two facilities: Tesla Fremont and Gigafactory Texas. The initial 25% tariff, set to take effect on April 2, 2025, applies to cars and light trucks assembled outside the U.S., likely dealing a heavy blow to competitors like Hyundai and Volkswagen. According to a Goldman Sachs report, these tariffs could drive up vehicle prices by $5,000 to $15,000.
However, this advantage is partially offset by exemptions under the USMCA. To avoid the full tariff, vehicles and parts must meet a strict “rules of origin” requirement, meaning at least 75% of components must come from the U.S., Canada, or Mexico. This exemption remains in place until May 3, 2025, when the second stage of tariffs kicks in—targeting non-U.S. content more directly.
Effectively, the NHTSA and USMCA’s existing framework for defining “North American-made” components is being upended. This shift plays to Tesla’s strengths, but to understand the full impact, we need to take a closer look at its supply chain.
Supply Chains
Tesla’s supply chain is deeply integrated across North America. Approximately 25% of the Model 3 Long Range RWD and AWD comes from Mexico - and some undefined percentage also comes from Canada. That number rises significantly for the other vehicle’s in Tesla’s line-up, which is available in the chart below from early November 2024.
Phase 2 of the tariffs will place an increasing impact on Tesla - especially as it won’t be simple nor quick for Tesla to move all part production to the United States.
Vehicle
Pct made in US/Canada
Model 3 LR AWD/RWD
75%
Model 3 Performance
70%
Model Y (All Variants)
70%
Cybertruck
65%
Model S
65%
Model X
60%
Battery Production
This is particularly evident in Tesla’s reliance on Canadian minerals, which are crucial for its battery production. Tesla sources key materials like nickel, lithium, and cobalt from Canadian mines, with most of these resources being shipped across the border in an unrefined state. Currently, these shipments face a relatively low 10% tariff from Canada. However, potential retaliatory tariffs could drive costs higher or even restrict access to these essential minerals.
While limiting access may seem extreme, Ontario has already threatened to halt nickel exports from Canada’s largest nickel mine to the U.S.—a move that could pose a serious challenge for Tesla.
Even Elon Musk has acknowledged that Tesla won’t emerge from these tariffs unscathed.
Important to note that Tesla is NOT unscathed here. The tariff impact on Tesla is still significant.
Tariffs are rarely a one-way street. Canada and Mexico are likely to respond with retaliatory tariffs on U.S.-made auto parts or vehicles. Both countries have already explored reducing EV incentives by excluding Tesla from certain rebates. Additionally, there have been discussions about imposing tariffs specifically on Tesla, partly due to Elon Musk’s political involvement.
Consumer Impact
Several scenarios impacting consumers can unfold in response to these upcoming tariffs.
In the short term, higher prices for competitors could drive more customers toward Tesla as they seek more affordable products. However, increased import costs could force Tesla to either absorb the expense or raise prices—potentially offsetting any sales gains.
Cox Automotive, a leading industry analyst, has warned that by mid-April 2025, North America could see reduced production, tighter supply, and rising vehicle prices. Tesla, despite its domestic production, won’t be immune to these effects due to its reliance on a continental supply chain.
To mitigate long-term costs, Tesla could explore securing domestic mineral rights—an expensive move initially but one that could provide stability if tariffs remain in place for years under the current administration.
However, Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja acknowledged during the Q4 2025 Earnings Call that the company remains heavily dependent on global parts sourcing. Given Tesla’s own admission of the impact, consumers should expect price increases as the company adjusts to the shifting trade landscape.
What to Take Away
Overall, the 25% tariff presents a double-edged sword for Tesla. While it may offer short-term advantages by making competitors’ vehicles more expensive, long-term, Tesla will also be impacted. Tesla’s reliance on cross-border parts, coupled with potential retaliatory tariffs, could quickly escalate costs and increase vehicle prices.
As the political landscape around tariffs continues to evolve on what seems to be a daily basis, Tesla will need to navigate these changes carefully. Tesla’s supply chain has been optimized for cost-effectiveness and efficiency. Any changes that happen could be driven by the new tariffs. Tesla may be forced to make changes that prioritize reducing tariff costs, potentially at the expense of efficiency. However, if these policies continue to evolve or if tariffs are later removed, Tesla is then stuck with a less-efficient supply change.
The company will likely address these challenges in detail during the Q1 2025 Earnings Call, though that remains several weeks away.
Over the years, Tesla has introduced UI elements that indicate when specific hardware or software features are active—and these two new dots follow the same pattern.
In June 2024, Tesla introduced the ability to see which third-party apps have access to the vehicle’s location, and these new indicator dots have a similar goal — to improve transparency on features that impact privacy.
Green Dot
If you’ve noticed a green dot on your Tesla display or the instrument cluster for the Model S or Model X, then you have access to Tesla’s hands-free Autopilot feature.
The green dot is displayed on the screen whenever FSD or Autopilot is active and the vehicle is using the interior camera to monitor the driver’s attention.
The cabin camera does a much better job monitoring the driver than the old method of sensing torque on the steering wheel. The cabin camera detects driver attention by tracking the driver’s head and eyes and making sure they’re focusing on the road. If the driver looks away from the road for an extended period, the vehicle will warn the driver or issue a strike for repeat offenses.
If the cabin camera is occluded or obscured, or if it’s simply too dark, the vehicle will fall back to monitoring the driver by detecting torque on the steering wheel.
The presence of the green dot not only lets the driver know that the interior camera is being used but also lets them know whether they need to keep their hands on the steering wheel.
It’s important to note that images and video taken with the interior camera are processed in the vehicle and do not leave the vehicle unless you have granted access for Tesla to use them to improve functionality.
You can check your privacy and data sharing policy in Controls > Software and tap the Data Sharing button at the bottom.
Orange Dot
The orange dot functions similarly to the green one, but instead of indicating cabin camera usage, it appears when the vehicle’s microphone is active. This was added with software update 2025.2, which now listens for audio cues to detect emergency vehicles and other types of noises that could help the vehicle better understand its environment in the future.
Tesla is currently collecting this data to refine its ability to detect emergency vehicles even before they come into view. This capability is expected to be added in FSD v14 along with a larger model size.
Like cabin camera analytics, drivers can opt to share audio data with Tesla to improve detection accuracy. Many users received an “Allow Sound Detection Analytics” prompt following the recent update. If they consent, Tesla may use certain audio snippets to help improve their detection model. Any data transmitted to Tesla is not linked to a specific user or vehicle, so it can’t be tied to a specific individual.
Otherwise, all audio detection and processing is completed in the vehicle to ensure the driver’s privacy.
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