For the first time since launching Tesla Insurance in 2019, Tesla will begin underwriting its own policies, starting in California.
Tesla Insurance originally debuted in California and has since expanded to several U.S. states. Until now, policies were underwritten by State National, a subsidiary of the Markel Insurance Group. However, Tesla is now transitioning to fully in-house underwriting, beginning with its home state.
As part of this shift, California Tesla Insurance customers who receive an in-app offer to switch will be eligible for a one-time 3% discount on their next term’s premium—covered entirely by Tesla Insurance.
What is Underwriting
Underwriting is the process an insurance company uses to assess risk and determine whether to offer coverage, at what price, and under what terms.
Insurers evaluate factors such as driving history, credit score, age, vehicle type, and location. In Tesla’s case, vehicle driving data (not available in California) also plays a key role in risk assessment. These factors help classify drivers into risk categories, which influence their base premium.
From there, coverage limits, deductibles, and policy inclusions or exclusions can further adjust the final premium up or down.
Robotaxi and Other Benefits
At first glance, underwriting insurance might seem like a complex and costly process for Tesla. However, there are several compelling reasons why this move makes sense.
Insurance Income: Insurance is a highly profitable industry. Companies set rates based on risk, offering lower premiums to safer drivers and higher rates to riskier ones. This not only maximizes profitability but also incentivizes safer driving behavior, reducing overall claims.
Data Advantage: Tesla collects vast amounts of driving data through its Safety Score system. While California doesn’t allow Safety Score to impact premiums, Tesla can still use this data in the underwriting process to refine risk assessments and pricing for its vehicles.
Control Over Repair Costs: By underwriting its own policies, Tesla gains direct control over repairs and total loss decisions. This allows them to dictate when, where, and how repairs are done, optimizing costs for parts, labor, and service while ensuring vehicles are fixed according to Tesla’s standards.
FSD-Driven Discounts: Tesla has already begun offering insurance discounts for drivers using Full Self-Driving (FSD). By underwriting its own policies, Tesla could expand these incentives, potentially offering greater discounts to frequent FSD users in the future.
Preparing for Robotaxi: Perhaps the biggest long-term reason for this shift is the June launch of the Robotaxi fleet. How will Tesla insure these vehicles? The answer is simple—by underwriting its own policies and assuming liability.
Tesla’s decision to underwrite its own insurance isn’t just about cutting out middlemen—it’s a step toward lowering costs, increasing profitability, and preparing for the future of autonomous driving, a risk many insurance companies may be unwilling to make.
Further Expansion
This could be a strong sign that Tesla is preparing to expand its insurance offerings now that it has taken on the underwriting process itself. In July 2024, Tesla hired a former GEICO insurance executive to lead the expansion of Tesla Insurance and help reduce costs—a move that now appears to be paying off.
Rather than a traditional expansion, Tesla has instead made a bold move by bringing underwriting in-house, something few expected. However, it aligns with Tesla’s strategy of vertically integrating and controlling key aspects of its business, whether in manufacturing, software, or now, insurance.
If this pilot program proves successful, it could pave the way for Tesla Insurance to launch in more states—and potentially even other countries. With 2025 shaping up to be a pivotal year, we may see Tesla accelerate its insurance expansion sooner than expected.
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Tesla’s ambitious 4680 cell program has been pivotal for its vehicle roadmap - and in particular, for the Cybertruck. Bonnue Eggleston, Tesla’s Senior Director for the 4680 cell project at Tesla, recently sat down with Sandy Munro on Munro Live, offering valuable insights into cell development, manufacturing hurdles, and Tesla’s future trajectory. You can watch the video in its entirely below.
The 4680 cell, like many batteries, is characterized by its dimensions: 46mm in diameter and 80mm long. Tesla is currently producing the 2nd generation of the 4680 - internally known as the Cybercell - which is shipped with every variant of the Cybertruck. This Gen 2 variant is a considerable step up from Gen 1 - whose limited production was cancelled following the slow charging issues with the 4680 Model Y.
Prototypes are Easy; Production is Hard
Bringing the 4680 from a concept cell to mass production hasn’t been easy, but according to Tesla, it has now become Tesla’s cheapest cell per kWh. Eggleston emphasized in the video that scaling up was an immense challenge - and required an extreme attention to detail.
With a team possessing a broad skill set, it took considerable effort to bring the 4680 to life, starting from the raw electrode material and progressing through the crucial formation process.
Breaking Barriers
To overcome these hurdles, Eggleston’s team leaned into innovation and focused on new processes that had not been utilized in the battery world yet. The groundbreaking new dry electrode process is the key here, which eliminates the use of toxic solvents and large ovens required in traditional production methods. This reduces internal factory footprint, while also being cleaner and safer, building a better cell from the ground up.
Complementing this, Tesla has also been developing a custom electrolyte formulation in-house, tailored specifically for their anode, cathode, and separator materials, all aimed at expanding their deep vertical integration.
This vertical integration has been key to the 4680 program, and Tesla has further extended it, with in-house production of components like cell cans serving to optimize the process and reduce waste. Eggleston also pointed out the unique terminal design on the 4680, which allows for easier and more reliable welding, contributing to the high production output that Tesla is aiming for.
Sustainability
On the sustainability front, Tesla has been hard at work recovering and recycling materials right from the manufacturing line to minimize waste. Eggleston highlighted this as part of Tesla's effort to promote sustainability, which ties in with the environmental benefits gained from avoiding solvents in the dry electrode process.
Structural Battery Packs
While the 4680 is intrinsically linked to the Cybertruck, we expect Tesla to expand this to its future vehicles eventually - whether through use of the specific cell format, or the technologies learned through its development. Eggleston noted that the efficiency of the Cybertruck is partly due to his team’s cooperation and work with the vehicle team. The structural battery pack minimizes weight and provides additional support and protection to the cabin and occupants.
4680 in the Future
Eggleston expressed a considerable amount of confidence in Tesla’s 4680 program and the progress - citing significant improvements in throughput, yields, and product quality since he took leadership.
He acknowledged the ambitious targets that Tesla and Elon have set - and mentioned that the use of metrics like headcount per gigawatt helps drive production efficiently. This metric essentially measures labor efficiency – producing more battery capacity (gigawatt-hours) with fewer people indicates a more streamlined and cost-effective manufacturing process.
While Eggleston hinted at future developments, and we have previously heard of Tesla working on even more cells for the future, the battery technology race has been progressing rapidly around the world. While Tesla has been pushing 4680 production and deploying 325kW-capable Superchargers (and soon 500kW), they continue to face challenges from the competition.
Brands like China’s Zeekr are demonstrating new LFP batteries capable of charging from 10-80% in under 10 minutes, while achieving sustained speeds of 400kW+. Currently, the Cybertruck can only sustain the 325kW cap speed for a few minutes at best, resulting in a sub-par charging curve compared to upcoming competitors.
Tesla will have to focus on developing and producing new cells that maintain that cost-competitive advantage the 4680 has built, while also achieving faster charging speeds across its entire lineup. For now, these new faster charging speeds are restricted to the Cybertruck, but with refreshes for the Model S and Model X on the horizon, we expect that Tesla’s updated flagship vehicles will make the best use of this tech until it is ready for the rest of the lineup.
According to a report from Reuters, obtained from three sources with inside knowledge, Tesla is delaying the launch of its more affordable model - the cheaper variant of the Model Y. Tesla has promised the launch of a more affordable model in the first half of 2025, but we have yet to see anything come to light.
Tesla has been especially secretive with new product launches - the fact that nobody leaked the announcement of the Robovan or the final design of the Cybercab for We, Robot shows Tesla’s commitment to keeping things under wraps.
Tesla’s Affordable Vehicle Plan
The Reuters report sheds some light on what Tesla's immediate affordable vehicle plans might actually entail with a changed approach: a stripped-down version of its best-selling Model Y SUV, internally code named E41. This approach seems to align with earlier speculation that Tesla might opt for more affordable versions of existing platforms rather than launching an entirely new vehicle like the often-rumored "Model Q" or "Project Redwood."
According to Reuters' sources, the US production launch for this cheaper Model Y has slipped. Instead of the first half of 2025, the target for the start of US production is now reportedly somewhere between Q3 2025 and early 2026. The specific reason for this delay wasn't made clear in the report.
‘E41’ Speculations
Despite the delay, Tesla appears to have set a production target for the vehicle in the US, aiming for 250,000 vehicles in 2026. This suggests that Tesla is banking on this being a high-volume vehicle, and expects significant demand at the price point. The report also reiterates previous accounts that this affordable Model Y variant is planned for eventual production in China and Europe as well.
Sources familiar with the Chinese plans indicated a 2026 launch there, with the vehicle potentially being smaller and costing 20% less to produce than the current refreshed Model Y. The timing for a European rollout remains unclear, but would likely follow a Chinese launch.
Affordable Model 3
Interestingly, the Reuters report also mentions, based on the three sources, that Tesla is planning a similar strategy for the Model 3, intending to launch a bare-bones version. This will likely be an even more cut-down version of the Mexican Model 3. This further supports the idea that Tesla's path to affordability, for now, involves cost-optimizing its existing popular models.
These more affordable vehicles will be crucial for Tesla. The company reported its first annual delivery decline recently, and faces analyst expectations of another drop this year. Factors cited include increased Chinese competition and potential brand reputation impacts. A cheaper Model Y and Model 3 could help attract new customers.
Strategy Pivot
This strategy also exists in the context of Tesla's potential pivot away from a dedicated, all-new $25,000 platform. Elon had previously indicated that the project was deprioritized in favor of focusing resources on developing the Robotaxi network and Cybercab.
The E41 and cheaper Model 3 appear to be the revised approach to hitting lower price points using existing manufacturing lines and platforms, albeit likely not reaching the originally hoped-for $25,000 base price - perhaps after the Federal EV Rebate.
Tariff Impact
Finally, the report touched upon the challenging geopolitical and economic landscape, particularly potential US tariffs. Automakers are wary of rising costs from tariffs on imported vehicles and parts. Tesla has reportedly increased its North American sourcing for many components over the past couple of years, a move that could lessen the tariff impact on a US-produced E41.
This contrasts with recent reports suggesting Tesla suspended plans to ship some components from China for the Cybercab and Semi programs, specifically due to tariff concerns. This highlights the complex supply chain calculations Tesla is making as it tries to balance production cost, tariffs, and vertical supply chain integrations.
With Tesla's Q1 2025 earnings call scheduled for Tuesday, everyone, including us, will be keenly listening for the next steps on these crucial affordable models.
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