Tesla’s US Sales were recently released in the Kelly Blue Book, which provides insight into vehicle sales in the domestic United States. It doesn’t cover Canada or any other international markets but provides a lot of data to analyze.
We’re going to look at Tesla’s sales here, analyze some trends, and make some observations.
Tesla Sales in the U.S.
We’re specifically looking at EV sales in the US - so let’s lay out how each of Tesla’s vehicles did. The table below shows the relative rank of the vehicle compared to all EVs available in the US market, the 2024 and 2023 sales figures, as well as the percentage change year over year.
Vehicle
Rank
2024 Sales
2023 Sales
YoY Change
Model Y
1
372,613
398,782
-6.6%
Model 3
2
189,903
230,015
-17.4%
Cybertruck
5
38,965
--
--
Model X
15
19,855
24,767
-19.8%
Model S
24
12,426
18,052
-31.2%
Lower Sales
Overall, Tesla has seen a net shrink in the number of vehicles sold in the United States. This makes sense, especially as they reported similar findings in their 2024 Production and Delivery Numbers just recently. Surprisingly, the Model Y saw the lowest drop, even with the upcoming release of the refresh, while the Model 3 and Model X were hit pretty hard.
The worst of the bunch is the Model S, at an astounding -31.2% year-over-year change - a difference of nearly 6,000 vehicles. While that doesn’t seem like much, that’s at minimum $450M in sales revenue ($75,000 starting price x 6,000). The Model 3, on the other hand, makes that seem like a drop in the hat, with its difference of nearly 40,000 vehicles - costing Tesla a potential revenue of $1,760,000,000 - $1.76B. That’s a lot of 0’s, assuming everyone bought a Long Range RWD variant.
Sales Up In Other Regions
Tesla sales were not only lower in the United States but also in Europe. Canada was flat when compared to 2023. China and other regions (RoW) were actually the only ones that were up year-over-year, helping bring Tesla almost flat in total sales for the year. In 2024 Tesla delivered 1.79 million vehicles globally, compared to 1.81 million in 2023.
Update: This article has been updated to accurately reflect that sales were also down in Europe and not just the U.S.
Cybertruck
Overall, these lower sales in the United States and Europe have had a fairly significant impact on the company - but on the flip side, sales of the Cybertruck are fantastic news for Tesla. The Cybertruck is the 5th best-selling EV in the U.S. In fact, it sold better than the R1T and the Ford F-150 Lightning - which is the most “normal” EV truck anyone could buy. It is also the best-selling vehicle at or above the $100,000 USD price mark - a feat that isn’t easily achieved, especially as people have been more reticent to spend in difficult economic times.
The Model S and Model X
Ok, we’ll say it upfront. The Model S and Model X sales are… disappointing. The Model X was out-sold by the Rivian R1S by 35% (26,934 vehicles vs 19,855) - which came as a surprise.
While the R1S is a fantastic vehicle, the Model X has long been Tesla’s halo vehicle - the gullwing doors, sharp lines, and sportscar-like performance make a statement no matter where you go. These vehicles compete in a similar market, but the R1S has a distinct advantage in being able to seat more people and store more luggage, which is likely the same reason the Kia EV9 also outsold the Model X.
When we compared the Model X and R1S, we found them both to be amazing vehicles - but the Model X’s big advantage was the versatility of the gullwing doors and the overall quality of software and tech compared to Rivian’s offerings.
Time for a Refresh
All in all, both Model S and Model X desperately need a refresh. Tesla said its “other models” in the 2024 production and sales numbers added up to 85,133. These are global sales and account for the Semi, Cybertruck, Model S and Model X. However, if we add up the U.S. sales figures for the Cybertruck, Model S and Model X, the total comes to 71,246. That means that nearly all “Other models” sales were sold in the United States, leaving only about 14,000 of these vehicles being sold in other markets.
The remaining difference mostly went to Canada - simply because Tesla doesn’t offer an RHD variant of either vehicle anymore. Buyers in other markets have to purchase LHD vehicles - which can make things as simple as going through a drive-through or parking stall an awkward experience with a passenger in the front seat.
Refreshing both vehicles is going to be something Tesla will have to do sooner or later - they’re starting to get dated pretty quickly, and people like to see new changes to their vehicles. This is probably the prime time to do so - with the Cybertruck’s new 800V High Voltage and Low Voltage Architecture enabling both faster charging as well as Steer-By-Wire - enabling Tesla to simply install the steering wheel where required, rather than needing to engineer a different variant of the vehicle.
While we’ve heard rumors of a minor refresh with ambient lighting and a bumper camera, this hasn’t actually materialized in the year since we heard it. We haven’t even seen any additional vehicles or engineering variants for either vehicle.
While we’re at it, let’s look closely at the Model S Plaid. Once upon a time, the S Plaid was the king of the track. It was pretty much an uncontested ruler, but today, that’s changed. The Model S Plaid - even with the Track Pack equipped, isn’t the king anymore. That title has been ceded to vehicles with newer technological advances that take their flagship sportscars' improvements seriously. After all, why would you buy the second or third fastest car when you can afford the absolute fastest?
We’re hoping Tesla puts the pedal to the metal here and brings forward a full refresh of both the Model X and Model S - one that cements them as part of Tesla’s flagship lineup of vehicles.
The Political Angle
Kelley Blue Book
While Elon’s involvement in politics isn’t surprising, it appears it has played a role in sales. Even the Model 3 saw a sharp decline in sales, even after a recent refresh that provides a much better vehicle. The new Model 3 is a world above the Ford Mach-E, Ioniq5, and others, but somehow, those vehicles saw year-over-year sale improvements of 25%+ while the Model 3 was down 17%.
EVs have increased - but Tesla sales have seen a fairly sharp and drastic drop in 2024 - with the start of Elon taking his political stances. We don’t have a particular opinion on Elon’s politics - after all, to each their own - however, it is clear that he has isolated much of the left-wing political community in the United States - those who used to be Tesla’s staunchest supporters in the interest of an electric tomorrow.
Tesla Isn’t Going Anywhere
While Tesla sales may be down in several regions in 2024, we don’t expect this trend to continue in the long term. Global sales remain high thanks to China and Tesla adding new regions. We also expect price and software to eventually win and sales will rebound in the U.S./Europe during 2025.
We’re hoping that 2025 sees a more nuanced Elon who returns to bringing us awesome news about FSD, amazing advances in human spaceflight, and spectacularly wholesome news of healing paraplegia.
The good news is that sales in China don’t appear to have been affected. No matter how it turns out, we still know that Tesla and Elon both are going to be bringing some absolutely insane new engineering - with the next-gen model arriving sometime in 2025, Optimus beginning to take its first steps, and Starship landing on those tiny little chopsticks.
Tesla offers owners an easy-to-use battery health tool, which allows users to view the degradation of their vehicle’s battery and improve the range estimate.
Battery Health
Like all batteries, electric vehicle batteries naturally degrade over time as a result of the chemical reactions that occur during charging and discharging cycles. Other factors also play a role, but the number of charge cycles and how long the battery stays at low or high states of charge play one of the biggest roles.
Your battery’s health refers to how much of its original energy capacity remains. For example, a battery at 85% health has lost about 15% of its capacity, meaning your vehicle will deliver roughly 85% of the range it had when new.
Battery Degradation
Battery degradation is worst in the first few months of ownership, and you will see the steepest degradation (1-3%) as your vehicle settles in. Part of this initial decline is due to the Battery Management System (BMS), which recalibrates to provide a more conservative and accurate estimate of your vehicle’s range and charging capacity.
According to Tesla, vehicle batteries generally degrade at a rate of about 15% per 200,000 miles, with the first year of ownership accounting for approximately 5% of this degradation. Battery degradation is less of an issue in modern EVs than many people think, because the BMS systems have become much more accurate and intelligent.
Tesla offers a long warranty on its vehicles, covering both the battery and the drive units. These warranties cover up to 70% pack retention, meaning that if your battery health degrades below the 70% mark while under warranty, Tesla will replace your battery pack.
Tesla provides a drive train and battery warranty on its vehicles, which is longer than the standard vehicle warranty. This warranty guarantees the battery will have at least 70% of its original capacity within the given time period. If your battery health drops below that threshold during the coverage period, Tesla will replace the battery pack.
The warranty varies slightly based on your Tesla model and configuration, which is outlined below:
Vehicle
Warranty
Model S, Model X, Cybertruck
8 Years / 150,000 mi (240,000km)
Model 3 / Model Y RWD
8 Years / 100,000 mi (160,000km)
All Other Model 3 / Model Y
8 Years / 120,000 mi (192,000km)
How to Test Battery Health
Not a Tesla App
While you can usually get a fairly accurate estimate of your Tesla’s battery health by calculating the amount of miles the vehicle could travel when charged to 100% and comparing that to the vehicle’s original range, Tesla has also added a tool to give you a better estimate.
Tesla has a user-friendly method of testing your vehicle’s battery health. The tool is practically identical to the one available through Service Mode, and the test and results are the same.
In order to test your vehicle’s battery health, you can navigate to Controls > Service, and then scroll down and select Battery Health. Upon tapping the button, the vehicle will display requirements for the battery test and the date and health of your last battery test.
Battery Health Test Requirements / How Long It Takes
Your vehicle will need to plugged in to a Wall Connector or Mobile Connector for up to 18 hours to run the battery test. The charger will need to be able to provide at least 5 kW of power, which is roughly about 20 amps at 240v.
The total amount of time the test will take will vary based on your vehicle’s battery size, your charging speed and the current battery level. If you’re unable to finish a battery health test and need the vehicle before it has completed, you can stop the test at any time.
Your vehicle will also need to be at a 20% or less state of charge, so you’ll need to plan accordingly.
The other requirements should be straight forwar and are listed here:
Vehicle is in Park
Battery level is at 20% or less
Vehicle is connected to the Internet
No software updates are scheduled
No battery or thermal alerts are active
Vehicle is connected to an AC charging station
AC charging equipment can provide at least 5 kW of power
Running the Battery Test
During the battery test, your vehicle will discharge and charge your battery to calibrate the BMS. Therefore, the lower the state of charge, the quicker the test will run and less energy will be wasted.
Your vehicle will run the motors and heat pump or heater to help discharge energy until the batteries are nearly empty, and then begin charging.
During the test, you may hear your vehicle’s fan run at maximum speed and become very loud, especially in an enclosed garage while the vehicle is discharging. This is normal and your vehicle is just using up energy.
Battery Test Results
Not a Tesla App
Once the battery test has completed, you’ll receive a notification in the Tesla app. You can check the results in the vehicle or in the Tesla app by navigiating to Service > Battery Health.
Most vehicles will have a degradation range between 10-20%, depending on your charging habits, age and use of your battery.
If you receive a result that’s 70% or less and are within the warranty period, you should reach out to Tesla for a replacement.
Since your battery test will recalibrate the vehicle’s BMS, you may see your vehicle’s range adjusted after the test. Keep in mind that the range of your vehicle hasn’t been affected and the vehicle is simply displaying a more accurate estimate of its range.
Note: Once the battery test completes, the vehicle will keep your battery at 100%, which isn’t a good practice for battery health. It’d be a good improvement if Tesla used up energy to bring the battery level back to the charge limit if the vehicle isn’t used after an hour or two.
You should not leave your vehicle at 100% unless you have a LFP battery. Plan to go for a drive shortly after the battery test completes. If you can’t drive, we recommend running the climate system to use up some energy.
Test Limitations
Since Tesla’s battery test uses up energy and discharges your battery to near 0% and then charges it to 100%, it’s best not to perform it often. Tesla also only allows one battery test every six months, unless you go into Service Mode to perform the battery test.
Tesla offers users some specific tools under its service menu (Controls > Service). These tools include features such as Car Wash Mode and Tow Mode. Just like other vehicle features, these are also updated and improved over time.
As Tesla vehicles use electric motors, towing them with any wheels on the ground could cause the motors to backfeed energy, generating considerable amounts of heat. If done for an extended period of time, especially at higher speeds, it could cause damage since the vehicle isn’t running its coolant loop to dump waste heat.
To help solve this problem, Tesla provides Tow Mode, which breaks down the steps needed to tow a Tesla. It also provides an easy way to put the vehicle in neutral and disengage the parking brake.
The improvement to Tow Mode now displays a checklist similar to Car Wash Mode. Each item in the list will light up green or red, depending on whether it’s already in the correct setting for Tow Mode.
Tesla has also added a readout of the low-voltage battery. While this could be useful for anyone wanting to check the current on their LV battery, it’s an important detail to be aware of if you’re towing because the vehicle’s high-voltage battery has been run down. All of the vehicle’s electronics are powered by the LV battery, and depleting it could cause the display to not turn on, as well as prevent access to certain vehicle features.
The vehicle shown in the diagram is also unique to the vehicle you are driving - a Model 3 will display a Model 3, while the Cybertruck will display a Cybertruck - just a subtle touch of Tesla precision to the entire presentation.
You can activate or check out Tow Mode from Controls > Service > Tow Mode.
Tire Service Improvements
Tesla has also improved its Tire Service menu, which is now tied into Maintenance History. These menus allow you to switch the wheels and tires your vehicle is using. It’s important to note that the wheel is not only used in the vehicle’s visualization, but also has impacts on the vehicle’s ability to accurately predict its range.
In the Tire menu, Tesla has added a Service Type dropdown, allowing you to select why you’re switching your tires. You can choose whether you’re rotating your tires, replacing them, or swapping them out for seasonal tires. This change will then be recorded in Maintenance History, allowing you to track the maintenance of your tires, including the date of the last maintenance and the ability to see the mileage on your current set of tires.
You can navigate to the Wheel and Tire menu by going to Controls > Service > Wheel & Tire.
The updated Wheel and Tire menu
Not a Tesla App
Cybertruck
As a note, the Tire Service improvements are not fully implemented in the Cybertruck in the primary menu. If you wish to mark a Seasonal Tire Change in your Cybertruck, you’ll need to head into Service Mode and add a Correction Code for Seasonal Tire Change from there.
We expect Tesla to fix or add this in an upcoming update for the Cybertruck.
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