It's been a while since HW3 owners have received a new FSD update, with the latest update coming with FSD version 12.5.4.2. While this version added vision-based attention monitoring with sunglasses, it’s still far behind the latest features available on FSD v13.2.1.
Tesla shared their FSD roadmap twice in the past few months, but HW3 was mostly left out, except for a single bullet point that stated there would be improved V12.5.x AI models for city driving.
We’ve recently seen HW4 vehicles receive much larger AI models, camera improvements that include processing video feeds at full resolution and 36 FPS, and much more. FSD V13 also gained features such as the ability to reverse and start FSD from park, amongst others.
It’s clear that HW3 is not powerful enough to run these latest FSD models, but HW3 owners are right to feel left out and disappointed with Tesla selling vehicles with HW3 up through the middle of 2023. Elon Musk has stated that Tesla will upgrade HW3 cars if needed, but are left in the dark in terms of what the upgrade will be and when it’ll become available.
Since that comment from Musk and Tesla’s updated roadmap in late October, Tesla hasn’t shared any additional news on HW3, until now.
Ashok Elluswamy, VP of AI at Tesla, has confirmed on X that an FSD update for HW3 owners is coming before the end of the year. Putting aside the 2 weeks joke, he did confirm that FSD V12.6 will be on its way for HW3 vehicles by the end of the year - which just happens to be about 2 weeks away.
FSD V12.6
WholeMarsBlog on X
It seems that the V12.6 build will be unique to Hardware 3 - as there haven’t been any builds with that FSD version yet. The closest build that we have to look at is FSD V12.5.6.4, which only went out to HW4 vehicles. We expect FSD V12.6 to include everything in 12.5.6.4 with possibly some additions.
FSD V12.5.6 brought a lot of improvements. We covered all of the features in FSD 12.5.6 previously, if you want a detailed breakdown and photos of all the features. However, here’s a high level overview of everything that version included:
Better and More Natural Lane Change Decisions
Updated Speed Profiles, including Hurry Mode
Auto Speed Changes
End-to-End Highway Stack
Audio Data Collection
These changes greatly improved FSD on HW4, so we’ll have to wait and see if they provide similar improvements for HW3 vehicles. The more natural decisions should improve overall smoothness and get rid of the jerky-wheel syndrome and green-light braking that has become synonymous with V12.5.4.2. Alongside better lane selection, this makes the entire experience much smoother and more fitting of Full Self Driving.
The updated speed profiles are applicable on both roads and highways (up to 50 mph with this version), which means you’ll get an updated Chill Mode (with Minimal Lane Changes), Standard Mode, and the new Hurry Mode, which is focused on driving faster and making more frequent lane changes.
Auto Speed has also been removed in favor of Max Speed, which will let you define an overall max while letting FSD still pick its overall speed up to that maximum set speed. You can adjust the hard max by using your scroll wheel to slow down or speed up the vehicle.
However, the biggest feature in this update is the new End-to-End Highway Stack, which finally brings the benefits of FSD V12 on city streets to highway driving.
The final feature that we’re expecting in FSD V12.6 is the ability to collect audio data to begin training for hearing emergency vehicles. This one will be big and it’s what will make FSD feel very human-like. Tesla is starting off with detecting emergency vehicles, but you can expect them to start detecting much more than that soon.
Tesla hints at that in their release notes, saying that audio sharing will be used for features such as emergency vehicle detection. Expect FSD to react to more in the future, such as vehicles honking or someone yelling. Tesla also said that they’ll be looking to have the vehicle honk when needed.
Why FSD 12.6
It’s interesting that Tesla is choosing to name this version FSD 12.6 instead of FSD 12.5.6.x, like they’ve done in the past. This points at some additional improvements being included, but it’s not clear what they could be. Could Tesla bring down some improvements from FSD V13, or add some features such as the ability to reverse?
Tesla may want to stay away from the FSD V13 name if the HW3 version isn’t going to perform as well as FSD V13 on HW4, but at the same time, they could simplify some FSD V13 features and make them available for HW3 owners.
What’s in FSD V13
Let’s take a quick look at all the features in FSD V13 that weren’t in FSD 12.5.6.x. FSD V13 includes significant improvements to the FSD model that just won’t fit into HW3 that are likely responsible the the smoothness seen in FSD V13. This includes a much larger model, full camera resolution, higher frame rates, and more, but FSD V13 also includes these additional features:
Speed Profiles on both City Streets and Highways (available on all roads and speeds)
Integrated unpark, reverse, and park capabilities
Start FSD from Park
Improved reward predictions for collision avoidance
Improved camera cleaning
Redesigned controller for smoother, more accurate tracking
Dynamic routing around road closures, which displays them along an affected route when they are detected by the fleet
While the larger model of FSD V13 is not expected to be available for HW3 vehicles, some of these other features have the possibility of making the cut in V12.6.
Legacy Vehicles
There’s no news on Model S and Model X legacy vehicles with MCU 1 receiving the same update just yet. Teslas with MCU 1 did receive FSD V12.3.6 on update 2024.26.3.1, but we haven’t seen anything indicating there will be another update coming soon. However, getting FSD 12.6 out for HW3 with MCU 2 could be the precursor to it becoming available for older MCU 1 vehicles.
We’re super excited to hear Tesla talking about HW3 vehicles and that an update is coming in just a couple of weeks. While it’s not FSD V13, it could provide massive improvements until a hardware upgrade becomes available for HW3 owners.
Tesla vehicles rely heavily on external cameras for their advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and the future of fully autonomous robotaxis. However, driving in bad weather presents a significant challenge: keeping those cameras clean. Without a reliable cleaning solution, Robotaxis, which depend entirely on vision, cannot function safely and effectively.
Tesla owner Chuck Cook recently brought up this issue on X, saying to the Tesla AI team, “While I agree cleaning cameras while supervised is definitely something we need to consider... having an official post from @Tesla_AI about cleaning our own cameras is a bit concerning. You have a plan for this, right? Unsupervised can’t have customers wiping cameras.”
The Tesla_AI team responded, “On a more serious note, a more comprehensive cleaning solution is being worked on.”
Front Cameras
With the redesigned 2025 Model Y, Tesla introduced a front-facing camera, joining the Cybertruck in this regard. The Model S and Model X are also slated to receive this upgrade in the future and we eventually expect all Tesla vehicles to come with one standard.
Camera Washers
While the addition of a front camera is a step forward, it introduces another yet camera that needs to be cleaned.
Currently, the Cybertruck is the only known Tesla model equipped with a dedicated camera washer. This system drips water onto the front camera lens, allowing the wind to blow the moisture away. While it’s a simple and effective feature, it’s unclear whether Tesla implemented a similar feature in the new Model Y.
Rear Camera Shield
Sawyer Merritt/X
Tesla recently added a small shield around the rear camera to reduce the amount of dirt and water splashing onto the lens. Additionally, the rear camera on the new Model Y was relocated from above the license plate to the trunk lid. This repositioning presumably helps keep the lens cleaner by reducing its exposure to road spray.
While these adjustments are helpful, they don’t fully solve the issue, especially in harsher environments with constant rain, snow, or road debris.
Potential Solutions
There are several possible ways Tesla could address this issue:
Camera Washers: Expanding the Cybertruck’s washer feature to all external cameras or at least to the rear camera could provide a straightforward solution for keeping lenses clean.
Lens Coatings: Applying special coatings that repel water, dirt, and debris could reduce buildup on camera lenses. However, these coatings would still have limitations in extreme weather conditions.
Software Alerts: Software already notifies drivers when a camera is obstructed or dirty, but this wouldn’t solve the issue without a hardware solution to physically clean the lens.
Given that the new Model Y has already been announced, it doesn’t sound like Tesla incorporated a “comprehensive” solution to the dirty camera issue.
Tesla’s Solution?
Tesla’s mention of working on a “comprehensive cleaning solution” raises questions about what’s in development. The new Model Y doesn’t appear to feature anything we’d classify as comprehensive, and it’s unclear whether it even has a front camera washer like the Cybertruck.
One potential solution could tie into Tesla’s Robotaxi plans. Tesla is building hubs for its Robotaxis, where vehicles can be cleaned and maintained using robotic systems. These cleaning hubs could include robotic arms that wipe down exterior cameras when needed.
While this approach may work for Robotaxis in most situations, it doesn’t address the needs of private Tesla owners who rely on their vehicles daily. Tesla may assume that individual owners can manually clean their cameras as needed.
2024 was an amazing year for Tesla. Tesla went from FSD 12.1 in early January to FSD V13.2 by the end of November. While FSD appeared to be stagnant for a while, FSD V13 revived Tesla’s potential for an autonomous future. It made a lot of us realize that Tesla may be closer to an unsupervised version than we initially thought. While there are still leaps to be made to truly be unsupervised, Tesla is now closer than ever and may be able to release a geofenced version later this year or next year.
2024 also brought a new UI in the Spring Update and many exciting features such as Actually Smart Summon, Apple Watch support, Weather radar, new music services, hands-free trunk opening and many more.
As 2025 kicks off, we’re tempted to look at what Tesla vehicles could look like by the end of the year. We’ll take a look at new vehicles, improved hardware and new software features.
FSD
Tesla FSD V13 has set the bar pretty high, but let’s focus on the features we want to see. Of course, right off the bat, we know that Unsupervised FSD is possible sometime in 2025. While we don’t expect to see it early, there is a good chance we could see it in the latter half of the year in specific cities.
Tesla has been working with both Palo Alto in California and Austin in Texas on establishing the first Tesla Robotaxi network, so when Tesla finally launches in a specific market, its likely to be in one of these two.
Hardware 3
While FSD 12.6.1 is rolling out to a variety of vehicles with hardware 3, it’s still not V13. It does include the new highway stack and improved smoothness, but it lacks other V13 features such as the ability to Park, Unpark, and Reverse - the key features that really makeup FSD V13. The “Tap to Start FSD” button is also not available for HW3 or the Cybertruck.
Cybertruck
While the Cybertruck is already running FSD V13, it still lacks a lot of the same features as HW3 vehicles. Actually Smart Summon is also not available on the Cybertruck - it never received it with the initial launch of ASS earlier this year. Cybertruck is already a sight to see on roads and in parking lots, and a self-driving Cybertruck with nobody in it? Alien technology right there.
Better ASS
Actually, Smart Summon was a huge leap forward for Tesla’s robotaxi ambitions, and it really signaled just how far they’ve come with autonomy. However, it's still quite limited, with a fairly short range in North America of just 215 feet (65m). Then again, anything is better than the current European launch, with a paltry range of just 19.5 feet (6m) in some European nations.
Longer Range, both in North America - but especially in Europe - will be one of the keys to making it a far more useful feature than it already is. Most parking lots are far larger than the 215-foot distance that Actually Smart Summon currently supports, so in order to use it as designed, you really need to be parked near where you want to summon.
Doubling that distance to 500 feet will make a big difference in being able to summon your car from a reasonable distance, but with that much of a leap, Tesla will also need to allow Actually Smart Summon to be able to function on public roads for short times. Given that NHTSA has now opened up an investigation for Actually Smart Summon, these changes will likely not occur until the software feature is improved.
FSD in Europe & China
Today, Full Self-driving is restricted to just the United States and Canada - so most of North America. In fact, Mexico is geo-fenced, and FSD gets completely disabled when a vehicle with it enabled drives across the border.
Putting aside Mexico, FSD is expected to make its way to Europe and China sometime in 2025, especially with changes to European regulations coming to help allow FSD to actually function in its Supervised format. We’ll probably see the launch of FSD to European markets in some fashion later this year, but expect it to be behind Tesla’s target date of Q1.
In China, Tesla recently began showing the option to enable FSD, but it's greyed out for now, indicating that it’s potentially close to launching. Tesla has received approval to start testing FSD in China, so at this point, it seems to be a matter of time - cutting through red tape and gathering enough initial training data are going to be key.
Right-hand drive markets are also an additional challenge, as Tesla previously mentioned. Training for the time being has been focused on Left Hand Drive markets, so RHD markets will require additional training and refinement for FSD to really shine there.
New Vehicle Launches
Tesla has been hinting at an upcoming event in their updated referral program, which includes a potential invite to a future Tesla event. While we just had the Robotaxi event and Tesla just showed off the Model Y Juniper refresh, there is still more to come.
Next-Gen Model - Project Redwood
Tesla’s next-gen model, internally known as Project Redwood, is getting close to launch. While many have referred to this as the Model 2 or Model Q, we’re still not sure what it’ll be called just yet - or even what it will really look like.
However, Tesla seems primed to launch the vehicle sometime this year, and it’ll be a fairly compact vehicle, 15% smaller and 30% lighter than the Model 3 - the same size as the average Mini. If Tesla manages to keep in line with its originally promised pricing targets of $25,000 USD, this will be one of the best-selling EVs available. We expect it to be heavily based off of the Cybercab, but time will tell.
Tesla Semi Factory
Ok, while this isn’t “launching” next year, the Giga Texas Semi Factory is expected to be completed and operational by the end of 2025, so we’re likely going to see the Tesla Semi fleet start getting ramped up and expanded in late 2025 and early 2026, and this is one of Tesla’s most exciting products.
It has the potential to make the biggest impact on carbon emissions and fuel usage in a consumer-adjacent industry, so we could see a lot of immediate positive change from Tesla’s Semi in day-to-day life.
We’re super excited to see the Semi Factory get off the ground and more Tesla Semis begin to make their way into the wild.
Tesla Software
There have been some great software improvements made this year, especially during the UI redesign in the Spring Update, but there’s always more we’d love to see.
AirPlay / Google Cast Support
Being able to cast from your iOS or Android device right to your Tesla display would be a fantastic addition. Imagine not having to worry about logging in, or whether a streaming service is available via the browser or app in your vehicle. Simply load it on your phone and cast it to your vehicle.
The iOS / Android ecosystem is just too big for Tesla to try to rebuild it in their vehicles, and even if they did or emulated Android apps, you’d still be stuck logging in to each service.
We all already have a much faster computer in our pockets that’s used daily. Lots of times it’s used in short spurts, so being able to quickly send a vehicle to your vehicle’s larger display would be ideal.
While the feature was dropped in newer Model S and Model X vehicles, there is still a chance Tesla could bring it back with improved support. After all, the AMD APU likely outperforms the Steam Deck - a portable PC gaming device that was released in 2022.
However, support for those features on Android, as well as an Android Wear App, hasn’t been mentioned yet. We’d love for Tesla to show Android users some support, especially as Android holds a 50% market share in the US and over 70% globally.
Group Text Support
Today, if you’re in a group chat using RCS or iMessage and use your Tesla messages app to respond, you’ll likely send a direct message to the first person in the group rather than the whole group. What’s even worse is you can’t tell the difference between a message that’s sent directly to you or to a group.
That’s annoying at best, and downright a hassle at worst if you’re driving for a long time and unable to use your phone. It would be a fantastic wish come true if Tesla brought full support for group texts.
Smart Voice Assistant
Tesla’s current system is a list of voice commands that, while useful, leaves a lot to be desired when compared to modern voice assistants such as Google Assistant and even Alexa. However, a smart voice assistant based on an LLM that uses xAI’s Grok could be coming soon. Elon previously confirmed that Grok would make its way into Tesla vehicles.
Avoid Highways Option
Users have been asking for an ‘Avoid Highways’ option forever, as it’s a standard option in navigation systems nowadays. While the Alternate Routes feature is helpful, it may not always provide a route that avoids the highway.
In June, Elon Musk confirmed that a “Avoid Highways” option would be added to Tesla navigation, and now we have the new route options in China. We’re fairly confident that it will eventually be available in Tesla vehicles, but the question is when?
Arrival State of Charge in App
While the vehicle received arrival state of charge with the holiday update, we’re still waiting on it being added to the app. Tesla has already made some phrasing changes and other UI improvements that allow the new feature to slide right now.
We expect this to be added in the next month or two, but for anyone that does any serious trip planning from the Tesla app, it can’t come soon enough.
Live Activities
Not a Tesla App
Apple’s Live Activities are auto-updating, persistent notifications that can provide real-time information about a certain task. Live Activities are useful for Uber, flight information or other critical tasks that can change often. In Tesla’s case, they can be used when Supercharging or using Sentry Mode. You’d quickly be able to see how much time is remaining your charging session or how many Sentry Mode events you’ve received.
Tesla Energy
Tesla’s energy wing has been quietly doing a lot of work behind the scenes, so let’s take a moment to appreciate everything that’s happening here.
These V4 Supercharger cabinets are capable of dispensing up to 500kW for the Cybertruck, using its unique 800v architecture. While Cybertruck can already hit 325kW from V3+ Superchargers, this is the next step forward to making Tesla's charge even faster.
Tesla Solar, Powerwall, and Megapack
Solar, Powerwall, and Megapack have been dutifully plodding away in the background, and Tesla has been working on expanding the factories that produce them. Both Mega Lathrop in the US and Mega Shanghai are undergoing expansions, and Tesla has released financial guidance that Megapack and Powerwall are going to be some of their biggest businesses.
Solar, on the other hand, seems to be slowly dying off. Tesla has killed off all their first-party solar installation and instead handed off the Tesla Solar program to third-party installers. There is also no news of pushing the Tesla Solar Roof to other countries - for now, it is only available in the United States “officially’.
We’d love to see Solar Roof and Tesla Solar make their way to other countries and even see some progress on the rumored Tesla home heat pump. While existing heat pumps are functional, Tesla has a way of disrupting industries and making them work smarter and harder like no one else.
Optimus
Tesla’s humanoid robot has made a big splash at the We, Robot event, and now we’ve even seen it starting to walk on its own. Tesla has also started to deploy Optimus to do some basic tasks at its factories in Texas.
Optimus is going to be another big game-changer, but this one is still years out. For now, we’d like to see more of the updated Optimus hands, and more of Optimus doing daily tasks, whether it's just walking, folding clothes, or tightening some bolts down.
Optimus is a fantastic future vision for Tesla, and it’ll definitely be something to keep an eye on in 2025. Who knows, maybe we’ll get another autonomy event from Tesla in 2025 where we’ll learn more about Optimus.
To wrap up this wishlist, there’s a lot to look forward to. 2024 was a fantastic year, and Tesla really hit most of their milestones. We saw amazing progress in FSD, the Cybertruck, and Model 3 Highland really settled in, and now there’s so much more to look forward to.
