Tesla recently showed off a demo of Optimus, its humanoid robot, walking around in moderately challenging terrain—not on a flat surface but on dirt and slopes. These things can be difficult for a humanoid robot, especially during the training cycle.
Most interestingly, Milan Kovac, VP of Engineering for Optimus, clarified what it takes to get Optimus to this stage. Let’s break down what he said.
Optimus is Blind
Optimus is getting seriously good at walking now - it can keep its balance over uneven ground - even while walking blind. Tesla is currently using just the sensors, all powered by a neural net running on the embedded computer.
Essentially, Tesla is building Optimus from the ground up, relying on as much additional data as possible while it trains vision. This is similar to how they train FSD on vehicles, using LiDAR rigs to validate the vision system’s accuracy. While Optimus doesn’t have LiDAR, it relies on all those other sensors on board, many of which will likely become simplified as vision takes over as the primary sensor.
Today, Optimus is walking blind, but it’s able to react almost instantly to changes in the terrain underneath it, even if it falls or slips.
What’s Next?
Next up, Tesla AI will be adding vision to Optimus - helping complete the neural net. Remember, Optimus runs on the same overall AI stack as FSD - in fact, Optimus uses an FSD computer and an offshoot of the FSD stack for vision-based tasks.
Milan mentions they’re planning on adding vision to help the robot plan ahead and improve its walking gait. While the zombie shuffle is iconic and a little bit amusing, getting humanoid robots to walk like humans is actually difficult.
There’s plenty more, too - including better responsiveness to velocity and direction commands and learning to fall and stand back up. Falling while protecting yourself to minimize damage is something natural to humans - but not exactly natural to something like a robot. Training it to do so is essential in keeping the robot, the environment around it, and the people it is interacting with safe.
We’re excited to see what’s coming with Optimus next because it is already getting started in some fashion in Tesla’s factories.
Tesla’s US Sales were recently released in the Kelly Blue Book, which provides insight into vehicle sales in the domestic United States. It doesn’t cover Canada or any other international markets but provides a lot of data to analyze.
We’re going to look at Tesla’s sales here, analyze some trends, and make some observations.
Tesla Sales in the U.S.
We’re specifically looking at EV sales in the US - so let’s lay out how each of Tesla’s vehicles did. The table below shows the relative rank of the vehicle compared to all EVs available in the US market, the 2024 and 2023 sales figures, as well as the percentage change year over year.
Vehicle
Rank
2024 Sales
2023 Sales
YoY Change
Model Y
1
372,613
398,782
-6.6%
Model 3
2
189,903
230,015
-17.4%
Cybertruck
5
38,965
--
--
Model X
15
19,855
24,767
-19.8%
Model S
24
12,426
18,052
-31.2%
Lower Sales
Overall, Tesla has seen a net shrink in the number of vehicles sold in the United States. This makes sense, especially as they reported similar findings in their 2024 Production and Delivery Numbers just recently. Surprisingly, the Model Y saw the lowest drop, even with the upcoming release of the refresh, while the Model 3 and Model X were hit pretty hard.
The worst of the bunch is the Model S, at an astounding -31.2% year-over-year change - a difference of nearly 6,000 vehicles. While that doesn’t seem like much, that’s at minimum $450M in sales revenue ($75,000 starting price x 6,000). The Model 3, on the other hand, makes that seem like a drop in the hat, with its difference of nearly 40,000 vehicles - costing Tesla a potential revenue of $1,760,000,000 - $1.76B. That’s a lot of 0’s, assuming everyone bought a Long Range RWD variant.
What’s interesting is that why Tesla’s sales are drastically down in the US, they remain practically unchanged globally.
Cybertruck
Overall, these lower sales in the United States have had a fairly significant impact on the company - but on the flip side, sales of the Cybertruck are fantastic news for Tesla. The Cybertruck is the 5th best-selling EV in the U.S. In fact, it sold better than the R1T and the Ford F-150 Lightning - which is the most “normal” EV truck anyone could buy. It is also the best-selling vehicle at or above the $100,000 USD price mark - a feat that isn’t easily achieved, especially as people have been more reticent to spend in difficult economic times.
The Model S and Model X
Ok, we’ll say it upfront. The Model S and Model X sales are… disappointing. The Model X was out-sold by the Rivian R1S by 35% (26,934 vehicles vs 19,855) - which came as a surprise.
While the R1S is a fantastic vehicle, the Model X has long been Tesla’s halo vehicle - the gullwing doors, sharp lines, and sportscar-like performance make a statement no matter where you go. These vehicles compete in a similar market, but the R1S has a distinct advantage in being able to seat more people and store more luggage, which is likely the same reason the Kia EV9 also outsold the Model X.
When we compared the Model X and R1S, we found them both to be amazing vehicles - but the Model X’s big advantage was the versatility of the gullwing doors and the overall quality of software and tech compared to Rivian’s offerings.
Time for a Refresh
All in all, both Model S and Model X desperately need a refresh. Tesla said its “other models” in the 2024 production and sales numbers added up to 85,133. These are global sales and account for the Semi, Cybertruck, Model S and Model X. However, if we add up the U.S. sales figures for the Cybertruck, Model S and Model X, the total comes to 71,246. That means that nearly all “Other models” sales were sold in the United States, leaving only about 14,000 of these vehicles being sold in other markets.
The remaining difference mostly went to Canada - simply because Tesla doesn’t offer an RHD variant of either vehicle anymore. Buyers in other markets have to purchase LHD vehicles - which can make things as simple as going through a drive-through or parking stall an awkward experience with a passenger in the front seat.
Refreshing both vehicles is going to be something Tesla will have to do sooner or later - they’re starting to get dated pretty quickly, and people like to see new changes to their vehicles. This is probably the prime time to do so - with the Cybertruck’s new 800V High Voltage and Low Voltage Architecture enabling both faster charging as well as Steer-By-Wire - enabling Tesla to simply install the steering wheel where required, rather than needing to engineer a different variant of the vehicle.
While we’ve heard rumors of a minor refresh with ambient lighting and a bumper camera, this hasn’t actually materialized in the year since we heard it. We haven’t even seen any additional vehicles or engineering variants for either vehicle.
While we’re at it, let’s look closely at the Model S Plaid. Once upon a time, the S Plaid was the king of the track. It was pretty much an uncontested ruler, but today, that’s changed. The Model S Plaid - even with the Track Pack equipped, isn’t the king anymore. That title has been ceded to vehicles with newer technological advances that take their flagship sportscars' improvements seriously. After all, why would you buy the second or third fastest car when you can afford the absolute fastest?
We’re hoping Tesla puts the pedal to the metal here and brings forward a full refresh of both the Model X and Model S - one that cements them as part of Tesla’s flagship lineup of vehicles.
The Political Angle
Kelley Blue Book
While Elon’s involvement in politics isn’t something that is surprising - it does appear it has played a role in sales in the U.S. Even the Model 3 saw a sharp decline in sales, even after a recent refresh that provides a much better vehicle. The new Model 3 is a world above the Ford Mach-E, Ioniq5, and others, but somehow, those vehicles saw year-over-year sale improvements of 25%+ while the Model 3 was down 17%.
EVs have increased - but Tesla sales have seen a fairly sharp and drastic drop in 2024 - with the start of Elon taking his political stances. We don’t have a particular opinion on Elon’s politics - after all, to each their own - however, it is clear that he has isolated much of the left-wing political community in the United States - those who used to be Tesla’s staunchest supporters in the interest of an electric tomorrow.
We’re hoping that 2025 sees a more nuanced Elon who returns to bringing us awesome news about FSD, amazing advances in human spaceflight, and spectacularly wholesome news of healing paraplegia.
The good news is that sales outside of the U.S. don’t appear to have been affected. No matter how it turns out, we still know that Tesla and Elon both are going to be bringing some absolutely insane new engineering - with the next-gen model arriving sometime in 2025, Optimus beginning to take its first steps, and Starship landing on those tiny little chopsticks.
Tesla’s been on a roll with Supercharger improvements lately, from the 325kW charging update for the Cybertruck, to 500kW with V4 Superchargers coming next year. While those improvements have been limited to the Cybertruck, Tesla didn’t put all their focus on their new flagship vehicle, but looked at their more affordable vehicles as well.
LFP Battery Heating
Tesla’s Superchargers can now heat LFP Batteries - those that are in the Model 3 and Model Y Rear Wheel Drive variants. This applies to Long Range and Standard Range models, which saw a limited run. This is another update included as part of the 2024 Tesla Holiday Update - which really arrived with a lot of unannounced new features and capabilities.
The change is pretty interesting - Superchargers of the V3 and V4 variety can now pre-heat batteries for Model 3 and Model Y vehicles equipped with LFP battery packs. That means those vehicles are able to get back on the road faster when it's extremely cold. Of course, Tesla still advises you to precondition before you arrive, saving drivers time and money.
Max de Zegher, Tesla’s Director of Charging, also commented on the new feature. Essentially, Tesla is inducing an AC (alternating) ripple current through the battery to warm it up. Keep in mind that Superchargers are DC charging. That means it is possible to get a cold-soaked LFP vehicle on the road 4x faster than before, assuming that it didn’t precondition at all and that it is in the worst-case scenario (below 0ºF).
In essence, Tesla is using some engineering magic to turn the circuits inside the LFP battery into an electric heater - and powering that heater through the Supercharger. An AC ripple current is a small oscillation in the DC charging current that generates heat through electrical resistance, warming up the battery. Those ripples are a byproduct of converting AC to DC and back - so Tesla is using the onboard charger to induce those ripples to warm up the battery. Definitely an innovative technique that’s really only possible with the versatility of the NACS connector.
We’re hoping Tesla can implement this across their full lineup of vehicles, but we’ll have to wait and see how it is trialed across LFP vehicles first and if it is even possible on vehicles with 2170 or 4680 battery packs.
