Tesla has updated its Vehicle Safety Report once again, in line with the third financial quarter of 2024. Each quarter, alongside its Earnings Call, Tesla provides an update to its Vehicle Safety Report, which includes a massive amount of data on how safe Tesla’s vehicles are.
Q3 2024
In the third quarter, Tesla vehicles had one crash every 7.08 million miles while drivers were using either Autopilot or FSD. Meanwhile, those who didn’t use either regularly had one crash every 1.29 million miles in a Tesla.
The NHTSA shows that the average driver is in a crash once every 670,000 miles. Even if you weren’t using Autopilot or FSD but were in a Tesla, you were twice as unlikely to be in a crash. If you were using Autopilot or FSD, you were over 10.5 less likely to be in an accident compared to the average driver in the United States.
In Q1 2024, Tesla achieved a record-breaking 7.6 million miles driven before an accident while on Autopilot or FSD, and they’re trending back upwards after a Q2 miss at 6.8 million miles. Every batch of major improvements has increased this number drastically. If we look back to Q3 2021, it was only 5.5 million miles, while Q3 2019 was at 3.85 million miles.
It’s not a coincidence that Tesla’s safety numbers continue to improve. Tesla’s overall package of safety features, including technologies like Automatic Emergency Braking, Lane Departure Avoidance, and Collision Avoidance Assist, work through FSD’s vision-based system to keep both the vehicle’s occupants as well as other road users safe. Tesla continues to improve these safety features through continuous software updates, and as FSD improves, so do these safety features.
When you combine safety features with the only fully vision-based self-driving package on the market, you’ve got a vehicle that is demonstrably safer than the average road vehicle.
Tesla signaled its intention to launch its first Robotaxi network in Austin, Texas, with company-owned and operated vehicles, back in January. This network will be Tesla’s first foray into truly autonomous vehicles - ones that aren’t being directly supervised by a driver. Later in February, Tesla’s executive team confirmed that the plans were on track for the launch of the Austin network both on X and during several interviews that they participated in.
At the end of February, we also found out that Tesla has applied for a Supervised Robotaxi license in California, where the network will also launch, but with safety drivers in place.
This is an ambitious plan, but FSD has really come a long way in the past year. FSD V12 was a massive step forward from V11, and V13 has made the experience smoother and safer than ever before. FSD V14 is expected to be another big step up with auto-regressive transformers and audio input.
Still on Track
Now, Elon has tripled down on the fact that Tesla will be launching their first autonomous robotaxi network in Austin - just two months away at this point. It seems that Tesla is fully set to launch their first fully unsupervised self-driving vehicles that will carry paying passengers in June.
Additional Cities
The best part is that Elon also confirmed that they’re targeting robotaxi networks launching in many cities within the United States by the end of this year. However, remember that this will be a Tesla-run network at first - Tesla owners won’t be able to add their vehicles to the Robotaxi fleet right away.
Adding Customer Vehicles
It will take some time before Tesla meets their strict internal safety requirements before it lets customers add their own vehicles to the network. Tesla’s executive team mentioned that they intend to let owners add their own vehicles to the fleet sometime in 2026. This happens to be the same time frame that Tesla plans to launch the Robotaxi across the United States, Mexico, and Canada — something that could only be done with customer-owned cars.
That final step will be bold—and it may come with complications, especially given that autonomous vehicle approval spans municipal, state or provincial, and even federal levels. There are plenty of regulatory hurdles ahead, but this is undoubtedly shaping up to be one of the most exciting times for Tesla.
Launch Event
With the Robotaxi network launching and Unsupervised FSD just around the corner, there’s a lot to get excited about. Tesla is expected to host a launch event at Gigafactory Texas in Austin to mark the debut of its first Robotaxi network. The company previously hinted that referral code users could receive invites—offering a rare chance to score an early ride in a Robotaxi outside the Hollywood studio lot.
Tesla’s engineering mule vehicles—used to test autonomy for future platforms—have resurfaced after an extended absence. The last time we saw them was back in July, when Tesla was gearing up for its initial We, Robot event. Since then, sightings have been scarce.
These vehicles typically signal that Tesla is testing new camera placements or validating FSD ground-truth data. This time, however, they appear to be outfitted exclusively with the updated camera hardware seen on the Cybercab.
New Sightings
The mules have now been spotted in Boston, Massachusetts, and Concord, New Hampshire—their first known appearances this far east. This suggests Tesla is actively collecting data to evaluate and optimize FSD performance in new regions. Thanks to Reddit user Ready_Medium_6693 for catching the one in Concord.
Elon Musk recently mentioned that Tesla plans to expand Robotaxi networks beyond the initial Texas and California launches. So while these sightings aren’t entirely unexpected, the speed of their arrival is. It suggests Tesla is confident in its ability to train FSD for local traffic rules and driving behaviors to the point it no longer needs a driver.
Bumper Cameras
The vehicle that’s been spotted in Boston is the usual Tesla engineering Model 3… except with one unique twist. It includes a front bumper camera. Shout out to @Dylan02939106 for catching the bumper camera in these photos.
The Refreshed Model 3 Mule with a Bumper Camera!
@Dylan02939106 on X
We previously released an opinion piece regarding whether the front bumper camera would be required for Unsupervised FSD. In our eyes, Tesla will require a bumper camera for Unsupervised FSD - if only to improve direct visibility in the bumper area of the vehicle. This is key for low-speed maneuvering in crowded areas like parking lots and garages, as well as for key features like Actually Smart Summon.
It isn’t surprising that Tesla is continuing to evaluate vehicles with a bumper camera - the Cybertruck, Cybercab, and Refreshed Model Y all have them now - and the rest of the lineup, including the flagship Model S and X, as well as the refreshed Model 3 - were supposed to eventually receive them as well.
With the Model S and Model X set for refreshes this year—and the front bumper camera on this Model 3 looking well-integrated rather than a temporary setup—it seems likely that front bumper cameras will soon become standard across Tesla’s entire lineup.
The Robotaxi Mule in Boston
@Dylan02939106 on X
In fact, Tesla’s newest iteration of the FSD computer has a slot for the Bumper Camera on all AI4/HW4 vehicles, so a future retrofit could even be possible.
These are some pretty exciting times - we may see Robotaxi networks actually deploy in time for Tesla’s lofty goal of “sometime in 2026” for cities throughout North America. Once many American cities begin to accept their deployment, it will be easier to seek homologation in Mexico and Canada, enabling deployment throughout the continent.
