Tesla recently launched another round of FSD Trials for both new and current customers. Like before, the trial is for 30 days. However, Tesla is now sending out emails to users that the trial is being extended — letting users get FSD for about an extra week.
FSD is built into every Tesla vehicle, but it comes with a hefty up-front price tag or a more economical subscription of $99 USD/CAD per month. Since not every customer has tried out the latest version of FSD, Tesla is sending out more trials, hoping it will stick with some customers. A longer trial could do just that, as users start relying on it for everyday drives instead of just trying it out.
The timing of the trial and extension is also interesting. Thanksgiving takes place in the United States on November 21st, which means that this trial ends shortly after the holiday. Having this trial active during the Thanksgiving holiday could expose many non-Tesla owners to FSD.
Update: This article has been updated to accurately reflect the 30-day trial. Users who are receiving the trial now are getting a 30-day trial. For users who received the free trial earlier, Tesla has extended it by 30 days from the day of the email, which ends up being about an extra week.
FSD V12.5.4.1
When a user receives the FSD trial, Tesla updates their cars to 2024.32.10, which includes FSD V12.5.4.1, alongside hands-free driver monitoring with sunglasses, as well as Actually Smart Summon. Essentially, this is a big moment for Tesla to show off the latest FSD features to as many customers as possible.
At the recent Q3 2024 Earnings Call, Tesla also confirmed that the FSD rate has been up since the We, Robot event. This is likely due to more people seeing the robotaxi and the fact that there were no incidents while moving thousands of people. This, plus the recent success of FSD V12.5, which has a lower intervention rate than earlier versions, is opening more people up to the idea of autonomy.
Trial Extension
Tesla is announcing the trial extension to some users through email or a message in the Tesla app, so keep an eye out for both. The email and message are going out to users in North America who subscribe to FSD or don’t have FSD at all. It does not include customers who have bought FSD since those owners already have it for the life of the vehicle.
Tesla appears to be phasing in the FSD trial, as not all users have received it yet, but we expect most users to receive it in the next few weeks.
Enable the Trial
Once you receive the email, check your vehicle to see whether it asks you to activate FSD. Keep in mind that it may take up to a day for FSD to show up in your vehicle. Once it does, FSD will be activated on your current software version, which is likely FSD 12.3.6, but update 2024.32.10 should be available to you shortly after.
Although Tesla has moved away from the FSD Beta wording and it’s now officially called FSD (Supervised), always remember that this feature requires you to be constantly aware of your surroundings and to monitor the vehicle closely. While FSD will navigate, change lanes, and even take turns, it's imperative to stay attentive and cautious—the system is designed to assist, not replace, the driver.
What If I Already Subscribe
In the previous FSD trial earlier this year, Tesla also gave a free trial to Tesla owners who already subscribe to FSD. This essentially gives you a month of FSD for free. We have confirmed that this trial is functioning the same way, and users who are already paying for FSD are receiving a free month.
If you receive the free FSD trial message in the app, you should see the payment date for FSD skip a month so that you only get charged the next FSD payment after your free month ends.
How to Get the FSD Trial
You don’t need to do anything to get the free FSD trial. Tesla isn’t sending it to everyone at once, but most owners who live in the U.S. or Canada should receive the free 30-day trial soon.
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Tesla was pretty light on the specifications and details behind the vehicles, but there was some information that made its way out to the open in the following days. We’ve gathered up all that juicy information, so leave your Supercharger cable behind, and let’s take a look at some Cybercab battery and range details.
In addition to Tesla Vision, Optimus leverages many of our vehicles' hardware components, like batteries, cameras & computers
Tesla released this excellent animation on X recently, which looked at the similarities between Optimus - Tesla’s humanoid robot - and the Cybercab. The key note is that the Cybercab and Optimus share the same batteries, same computer, and same cameras, all based on AI5. So, assuming the video is accurate, we can roughly determine how many batteries are inside the Robotaxi, and then extrapolate the range as well. We’ve also got a second method to take estimate the vehicle’s battery size, based on the video where Tesla showed off the Cybercab’s wireless charging capabilities.
Method 1: Counting Batteries
Based on the animation, the grid of cells is 27 wide by 30 tall. If the video accurately depicts the Cybercab’s battery pack, that gives us 810 cells. We already know the 4680 battery pack in the Cybertruck has 1,344 cells, with a capacity of 123 kWh.That’s about 0.09kWh per cell, which works out to 74.685kWh in the Cybercab.
However, we feel that this number is far too large, especially given that Tesla is already intending to use the new NC05 battery format in the Cybercab. We expect the Cybercab to launch with a battery smaller than the Model 3 Standard Range (54 kWh). Therefore, we can try a different method to determine the pack size.
Method 2: Charging Math
Rafael Levy on X helped out with this calculation - it's possible to extrapolate the battery size in the Cybercab by looking at the charge rate, time remaining, and battery max charge level in Tesla’s wireless charging video. In the video, the car starts charging at 35% and is being charged at about 25 kW. The video shows the charger starting at 19 kW and going up to 25 kW of power. The video also shows that the vehicle is charged for 56 minutes. Near the end of the video the vehicle finishes charging at 80% - likely suggesting a non-LFP battery.
When you calculate it out - 25 kW for 56 minutes, you get 23.3 kWh, which is 45% of the battery pack (35% to 80%). Calculating for the full pack, it sounds like the Cybercab’s battery pack is approximately 51kWh, a much more reasonable number.
We expect the Cybercab to launch with the new NC05 cells that Tesla has been working on, which will likely be a smaller, more efficient cell than the Cybercells in today’s Cybertruck. Those smaller cells will also have less energy per cell while also taking up less space and being easier to warm or cool due to overall thermal mass.
The Cybercab doesn’t need to solve every travel case, just the most popular, which would be shorter distances. Tesla’s goal with the Cybercab is efficient and cost-effective, and a smaller battery pack definitely fits into that motive. We expect the Cybercab to include between a 40 kWh and 50 kWh battery pack.
Being autonomous, the Cybercab will have more opportunities to charge and clean itself without inconveniencing the consumer since it could go to a nearby hub after dropping off a customer.
Cybercab / Robotaxi Range
Yesterday, Tesla shared its Q3 earnings call deck, which revealed some new information about the Cybercab. In it, Tesla stated that the Cybercab will include a new powertrain and will achieve an estimated 5.5 miles per kWh. For reference, the Model 3 Long Range gets about 3.9 miles per kWh, so this is a massive improvement. Some of the improvements likely lie in the Cybercab's lighter weight and improved aerodynamics, but the new powertrain likely also brings some increased efficiency.
If the Cybercab achieves 5.5 miles per kWh, we can speculate that, depending on the battery pack size, it’ll have a range between 220 and 270 miles.
Top Gear also attended the Robotaxi event and was told by an employee that Tesla is aiming for a vehicle with 200 miles of range, which matches the lower end of our calculations above. Top Gear also stated at the time that the Cybercab would achieve 5.5 miles per kWh, which Tesla revealed yesterday.
Did you miss Tesla’s Q3 2024 Earnings Call, or just want to review everything Tesla announced? Either way, we’ve got an outline of everything Tesla announced during the call.
This call was strongly focused on autonomy and revealed a lot more details about Tesla’s plans for its ride sharing service and the Cybercab.
Below is a section-by-section outline of both the actual earnings call and Q&A session and the investor slide deck.
Autonomy and FSD
Tesla is still focusing hard on autonomy
There were 50 autonomous vehicles at the We, Robot event
Carried thousands of people with no incidents or issues
20 were Cybercabs and 30 were regular Model Ys
Cybercab will reach volume production by 2026
Expected to reach 2 million units per year for initial capacity
Tesla could see expanding it to 4 million units per year
There have been significant improvements in FSD year-to-date
FSD launched in the Cybertruck, FSD V12.5 launched most recently
Actually Smart Summon is a taste of Unsupervised FSD
Single Stack for Highway and City, all end-to-end, all neural nets coming soon in V13
100x improvement in miles per intervention between FSD v11.4.9 and FSD v12.5
Tesla expects a 5-6x improvement in miles per intervention between FSD v12.5 and FSD v13
By Q2 next year Tesla expects FSD to have higher miles per critical intervention than the average human’s miles per collision
This is the “safer than a human” mark Tesla is aiming for
Hardware 4 has made significant strides in helping progress FSD due to the available processing power
Tesla will continue to roll out more 30-day trials with every significant FSD improvement
FSD has seen an increased take-rate after We, Robot
Internal Testing for Robotaxi
Tesla employees in the California Bay Area have already been testing Tesla’s Robotaxi service, which is run with Model Y’s
These vehicles have a safety driver
Tesla is also testing the Robotaxi / ridesharing app internally
Ride Hailing
Ride Hailing/Robotaxi network’s initial rollout will begin in Texas and maybe California next year
California’s regulatory approvals will be challenging, and Texas may happen sooner.
California may be delayed to 2026
Other states that follow Texas could come sooner
Driverless Teslas will be offering paid rides sometime next year
Some recently released features were designed for the Robotaxi, but went to every Tesla
Robotaxis will automatically load and adopt your Tesla profile, logging you into media apps, adjusting the vehicle’s climate and seat settings for comfort
Navigation can be done with the phone app, and you can also track progress of Robotaxis on-route
Cybercab, Models S3XY, already meet federal vehicle regulations for autonomy
State vehicle regulations are all over the place, each state has different (or no) process for autonomy
Hardware 3
“Vast Majority” of Tesla’s vehicles on the road today will be capable of autonomy
Tesla will continue to iterate FSD on HW4 first, and then backport to HW3
HW3 does not “fundamentally support” kernel features, and Tesla has to use tricks and additional work to get it to function
Elon admits he is not 100% sure HW3 will be capable of autonomy
If HW3 cannot do the job, Tesla will upgrade HW3 computers for owners who have purchased FSD.
Tesla has previously said multiple times this was not possible, this is big news
Upgrade will only cover the inference computers, not cameras or other parts
Affordable Model - 25K
Tesla’s more affordable model is still on track for the first half of 2025.
It will be built on the same next-gen platform as Cybercab, with an estimated 5.5mi/kWh.
This will be Tesla’s most efficient powertrain.
Tesla will continue to innovate to reduce the cost of its current lineup (S, 3, X, Y, CT).
CT is now profit neutral/approaching profitability
Semi
Semi factory is well under construction, CapEx for the factory is complete
Pilot builds of the updated Semi begin next year
Production ramp begins in 2026
Lots of signaled demand from trucking companies
Tesla is not expecting a demand issue
Cost per mile per ton is far lower than diesel trucks
Companies that don’t adopt Semi won’t be able to keep up
Pepsi’s drivers don’t want to go back to their old vehicles, fight to stay on Tesla’s Semis
“Couple hundred” already deployed this year
Tesla is training the Semi fleet on FSD, will deploy FSD to the Semi when its ready.
Roadster
Roadster is the “cherry on the icing on the cake”
Not a priority for the Tesla mission
Will come after other items that have a bigger impact on the mission (25K Model, etc.,)
Design is close to finalization
Service
Tesla is trying to fix issues upstream - at the factory level - to reduce service wait times
Tesla is looking to establish dedicated service facilities where they have dedicated lanes and technicians for certain specific issues
Throughput of service matters
Tesla, unlike other auto manufacturers, services cars
Normally, car dealers, not manufacturers make money on service
Tesla does not make money on service
Tesla has an incentive to reduce servicing costs as much as possible
Tesla is working on automating vehicle diagnostics and prep work
Vehicle self-diagnoses, information is provided to Tesla
Parts arrive, lift is booked and tools prepared
Vehicle arrives, technician is fully aware of the issue and can immediately fix the problem without wasting time
Already, most of the time Tesla doesn’t need to diagnose the issue, the car diagnoses itself and reports potential problems to Service.
4680 Cell
Tesla has produced the 100 millionth 4680 cell in Q3 2024.
Rapidly becoming the most competitive cell in terms of price
Tesla’s internally produced 4680 will be the most cost-competitive cell in North America
Continued progress on the dry-cathode line and expanding past the initial test batch
Tesla will continue to rely upon external cell providers
Lots of capacity is needed for both vehicles and stationary storage that can’t be achieved internally
AI and Optimus
AI training capacity is still expanding
Tesla is not compute constrained right now, especially with Cortex coming online
FSD is getting good enough that it is hard to find and figure out issues
Can see 10,000 miles of FSD video and not find an issue in current builds
Tesla is testing both virtually and physically
Real-life physical testing offers additional benefits, interacting with real humans, etc.,
Optimus’ new hand has 22 DoF, and is extremely humanlike
Tesla is likely the only company that can scale humanoid robots
This is likely due to Tesla’s extreme vertical integration, including batteries, actuators, sensors, software, and inference
FSD provides the humanlike brain, while Tesla’s factories can provide volume production capabilities
Grok in Tesla / Infotainment
Tesla will keep expanding what’s available for infotainment, will include AI support
Will also include browser improvements, movies, games, productivity
Energy
Energy is still doing well, lots of space to continuing scaling this business sector
Megafactory Lathrop is doing 200 Megapacks a week, for 40GWh a year
Shanghai will begin doing 20GWh per year, starting Q1 2025
Tesla wants to ship at least 100GWh per year by the end of 2025
Tesla wants to meet the stationary energy demands for a sustainable energy future
This includes the delivery of multiple terawatt hours per year
No material limitations on stationary battery business expansion
No rare materials or complex procedures are involved in the production process
Financial & Deliveries
Tesla has pushed out record deliveries this quarter.
No other EV company or EV section of another automaker is profitable
Tesla’s future is the world’s future - autonomous and fully electric
As Tesla executes on its objectives, Tesla will become the most valuable company in the world.
Tesla has done an excellent job executing in a difficult fiscal and regulatory environment so far
As cyclic fiscal and standing regulatory challenges are overcome, Tesla can continue to expand and grow in value
Automotive revenue grew Quarter over Quarter
Financial incentives have hurt direct profit numbers, but increased overall sales considerably
Tesla will continue to offer compelling financing options, but sparingly
Tesla has a compelling overall package - safety, autonomy, features, total cost of ownership
Tesla acknowledges there is an awareness gap about these items with new and old buyers alike
Tesla has had their vehicle margins grow Quarter over Quarter due to optimizations
Tesla continues to squeeze costs without compromising on the customer experience
Tesla has benefitted from lower freight and duties by delivering vehicles locally in markets where possible
North American vehicles from North America, European vehicles from Giga Berlin, Asian vehicles from China
Decline in interest rates as economy steadies will have a drastic impact on automotive demand
Due to interest rates, people have been holding onto cars longer, especially in North America
This has impacted new vehicle sales, as people are hesitant to spend money
Tesla sees an opportunity to educate and find new buyers in this market sector
Energy saw a decline in Q3, due to cyclic conditions
Projects are long term, and many begin in Q3, while ending in other quarters
Q4 will show growth for Energy
Q3 has been Tesla’s off-quarter for Energy (2021, 2022, 2023)
Tesla’s Q2 restructuring continuing to impact the company, will have no more impacts after Q4
GPU deployments continue, and Tesla will continue making quarterly investments, but sparingly
As it stands, Tesla has more GPU capacity than they can work with now - not compute constrained
Fragmented regulatory landscape will cause issues for the rollout of the Robotaxi Network and Unsupervised FSD
Most automotive companies have not internalized autonomy or EVs, and Tesla is a leader in both sectors
If you’d like to listen to the earnings call, it’s available below.
Plus, Tesla put out a highlight list of some of their biggest achievements for this quarter here on X.