Tesla To Upgrade HW3 Cars If Needed: What To Expect

October 25, 2024

By Karan Singh

Not a Tesla App

At the Q3 2024 Investor Call, Elon Musk discussed the future of autonomy. One question that came up was what about FSD Hardware 3? Today, Hardware 3 has been lagging behind Hardware 4, now dubbed AI4.

Given what has been previously said at We, Robot, Elon and Tesla fully believed that autonomy - Unsupervised FSD and Robotaxi, would be possible on HW3. Now, that statement has been backtracked. Elon and Tesla’s top-notch engineers are no longer sure whether HW3 will be capable of meeting the expectations of a safe, autonomously driven vehicle.

With AI 5 entering into production in 2026, even AI4 has a short lease on production life. But what does that mean for HW3 vehicles today? Let’s dig in.

Tesla Will Upgrade HW3 If Needed

Elon has confirmed for the first time that if Tesla can not make autonomy work on HW3, they will upgrade the affected vehicles. That upgrade, of course, would be free for customers who purchased FSD on their HW3 vehicles. For the early Model 3 that came with Hardware 2.5, owners should also be able to get a free upgrade to newer hardware after they purchase FSD. Elon didn’t go into a lot of detail, but it’s not clear whether FSD subscribers would also get a free upgrade if needed, but it sounds like they would.

There are a few things to note here.

Elon didn’t provide a date for this potential future upgrade or any expectation of when HW3 will be officially considered legacy. Elon said that Tesla isn’t 100% sure whether FSD would be possible on HW3. Tesla’s approach to FSD will now be to make it work on HW4, then backport or find ways to make it work on HW3. At some point, it sounds like they may determine this to not be possible.

It’s in Tesla’s best interest financially to delay that decision as long as possible and instead move HW3 owners to AI4 or newer hardware through free FSD transfer opportunities.

However, if Tesla decides that HW3 doesn’t have enough compute power, there will always be a large number of vehicles that need to be upgraded. The Tesla drivetrain—motors and batteries—are built to last, and with less than 2% annual degradation being tracked by third parties, we can expect to see 2018 Model 3s still on the road in 2030 and beyond.

There is some chance that HW3 does not achieve a safety level that allows for unsupervised FSD

What’s the Upgrade?

Here’s the thing—Hardware 3 has lower-resolution cameras and uses a different wiring harness. AI4 and beyond use a unified harness and improved cameras. On the earnings call, Elon said that the upgrade would be an inference computer upgrade only.

That means better and faster processing and an improved FSD experience for users. It can also save Tesla money by having the AI team spend less time backporting FSD to HW3.

No Camera Upgrades

The unified wiring harness and the cameras in HW3 vehicles will remain since Tesla doesn’t see them hindering progress. The harness in HW3 vehicles isn’t capable of carrying more data or power, making upgrades to cameras or hardware difficult.

Tesla is already approaching autonomy-level capabilities on Hardware 3, so in their eyes, it's just a matter of improving the models and decision-making rather than increasing the raw pixel count coming in. According to Tesla, there will be no camera upgrades.

No Bumper Camera

We expect to see the front bumper camera added to more vehicles in the near future. The Cybercab and Cybertruck both already have front bumper cameras, while the Model Y Juniper Refresh has been seen with one as well. The Models S and X are also expecting a bumper camera whenever they get a refresh.

We’re not sure how much of an impact this will have on the robotaxi or Unsupervised FSD, but given that the refreshed Model 3 Highland didn’t come with the bumper camera last year alongside the Cybertruck, it may not be necessary.

HW 3.5 Upgrade

Many users are speculating that HW3 will be upgraded to HW4, but that is unlikely to be the case. As we mentioned, HW4 has a different wiring harness and cameras and those won’t easily fit into a HW3 vehicle due to space and power constraints.

Instead, Tesla will likely create a new inference chip and board made specifically for HW3 vehicles. It’ll need to be as powerful as HW4’s computer but much more efficient.

Tech progresses quickly, and what was once cutting-edge in 2017 is now left behind in the dust. So, this process of getting an HW4-capable computer working with the constraints of an HW3 vehicle will get easier the more time goes on. Tesla will likely start engineering the process in the future, using smaller transistors with a smaller process node, newer chipset-style processor designs, and overall better energy efficiency.

One thing to look out for is redundancy. This lets the FSD computer work on two separate chips, making sure they both reach the same conclusion before the vehicle acts on it. Redundancy helps with errors due to component failures, errors in processing or other issues. Hardware 3 was built with redundancy in mind, but Tesla has since removed it in order to use both nodes for processing power instead of redundancy. If and when Tesla releases the HW3 retrofit computer, it’ll be interesting to see if they include this back in.

When?

Right now, Tesla isn’t even sure whether an upgrade for HW3 will be needed. It sounds like that may be the case, but for now, Tesla isn’t for sure. They simply want to reassure owners that an upgrade will be available for HW3 if needed.

Tesla also doesn’t want to have to upgrade vehicles twice, so this upgrade will be the absolute last-ditch effort to get HW3 vehicles up to a safe level of autonomy. Even Tesla can’t be sure what it will take to completely solve autonomy yet, so they can’t build an upgrade until they know what it’ll take.

Don’t expect a HW3 upgrade before FSD is solved. Once Tesla knows the computing power and potentially other hardware required, then they can start thinking about retrofitting vehicles that don’t meet those requirements. Our best guess is that a HW3 upgrade is still years away.

Tesla's New Model Y to Receive Adaptive Headlight Support in U.S. Soon

February 10, 2025

By Karan Singh

@DriveGreen80167 on X

In the latest episode of Jay Leno’s Garage, Tesla’s VP of Vehicle Engineering, Lars Moravy, confirmed that the new Model Y will feature adaptive headlights.

As Moravy was talking about the updated headlights in the vehicle, which now sit a few inches lower than before, he stated that in a couple of months, Tesla will add adaptive headlights in the U.S.

While Tesla has already introduced adaptive headlights in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, the feature has yet to make its way to North America.

Originally delayed in the U.S. due to regulatory issues, manufacturers have been able to implement adaptive headlights since mid-2024. Meanwhile, competitors like Rivian and Mercedes-Benz have already rolled out their own full matrix headlight systems, matching what’s available in other regions.

Update: This article has been updated to clarify that adaptive headlights will indeed be launched in the U.S., shortly after the vehicle launching in March.

Adaptive Headlights

Back in October 2024, Lars confirmed that matrix headlight functionality was just around the corner for North America. However, as we enter 2025, it’s still unclear when Teslas with matrix headlights will receive the feature.

Currently, Tesla in North America supports adaptive high beams and automatic headlight adjustment for curves, but full matrix functionality has yet to be rolled out. Meanwhile, matrix headlights are already available in Europe, where they selectively dim individual beam pixels to reduce glare for oncoming traffic and adapt to curves in the road.

It was surprising that matrix functionality wasn’t included in the comprehensive 2024 Tesla Holiday Update. This feature would likely improve safety ratings, so we can only assume Tesla is diligently working to secure regulatory approval.

Adaptive Headlights on Other Models

Lars didn’t confirm whether the refreshed Model Y comes with the same headlights as the new Model 3 and the Cybertruck, instead simply calling them "matrix-style” headlights.

The headlights on the new Model Y appear very similar to those available in the 2024+ Model 3, possibly meaning these other models will also receive adaptive headlight capabilities in the next couple of months.

For vehicles with older-style matrix headlights, it’s unlikely that adaptive beams support will launch at the same time, but they will hopefully become available soon afterward.

You can check our guide here to see if your vehicle includes matrix headlights.

Tesla Starts Underwriting Its Own Insurance: Will They Insure Their Own Robotaxis?

February 10, 2025

By Karan Singh

Not a Tesla App

For the first time since launching Tesla Insurance in 2019, Tesla will begin underwriting its own policies, starting in California.

Tesla Insurance originally debuted in California and has since expanded to several U.S. states. Until now, policies were underwritten by State National, a subsidiary of the Markel Insurance Group. However, Tesla is now transitioning to fully in-house underwriting, beginning with its home state.

As part of this shift, California Tesla Insurance customers who receive an in-app offer to switch will be eligible for a one-time 3% discount on their next term’s premium—covered entirely by Tesla Insurance.

What is Underwriting

Underwriting is the process an insurance company uses to assess risk and determine whether to offer coverage, at what price, and under what terms.

Insurers evaluate factors such as driving history, credit score, age, vehicle type, and location. In Tesla’s case, vehicle driving data (not available in California) also plays a key role in risk assessment. These factors help classify drivers into risk categories, which influence their base premium.

From there, coverage limits, deductibles, and policy inclusions or exclusions can further adjust the final premium up or down.

Robotaxi and Other Benefits

At first glance, underwriting insurance might seem like a complex and costly process for Tesla. However, there are several compelling reasons why this move makes sense.

Insurance Income: Insurance is a highly profitable industry. Companies set rates based on risk, offering lower premiums to safer drivers and higher rates to riskier ones. This not only maximizes profitability but also incentivizes safer driving behavior, reducing overall claims.

Data Advantage: Tesla collects vast amounts of driving data through its Safety Score system. While California doesn’t allow Safety Score to impact premiums, Tesla can still use this data in the underwriting process to refine risk assessments and pricing for its vehicles.

Control Over Repair Costs: By underwriting its own policies, Tesla gains direct control over repairs and total loss decisions. This allows them to dictate when, where, and how repairs are done, optimizing costs for parts, labor, and service while ensuring vehicles are fixed according to Tesla’s standards.

FSD-Driven Discounts: Tesla has already begun offering insurance discounts for drivers using Full Self-Driving (FSD). By underwriting its own policies, Tesla could expand these incentives, potentially offering greater discounts to frequent FSD users in the future.

Preparing for Robotaxi: Perhaps the biggest long-term reason for this shift is the June launch of the Robotaxi fleet. How will Tesla insure these vehicles? The answer is simple—by underwriting its own policies and assuming liability.

Tesla’s decision to underwrite its own insurance isn’t just about cutting out middlemen—it’s a step toward lowering costs, increasing profitability, and preparing for the future of autonomous driving, a risk many insurance companies may be unwilling to make.

Further Expansion

This could be a strong sign that Tesla is preparing to expand its insurance offerings now that it has taken on the underwriting process itself. In July 2024, Tesla hired a former GEICO insurance executive to lead the expansion of Tesla Insurance and help reduce costs—a move that now appears to be paying off.

Rather than a traditional expansion, Tesla has instead made a bold move by bringing underwriting in-house, something few expected. However, it aligns with Tesla’s strategy of vertically integrating and controlling key aspects of its business, whether in manufacturing, software, or now, insurance.

If this pilot program proves successful, it could pave the way for Tesla Insurance to launch in more states—and potentially even other countries. With 2025 shaping up to be a pivotal year, we may see Tesla accelerate its insurance expansion sooner than expected.