Tesla To Upgrade HW3 Cars If Needed: What To Expect

October 25, 2024

By Karan Singh

Not a Tesla App

At the Q3 2024 Investor Call, Elon Musk discussed the future of autonomy. One question that came up was what about FSD Hardware 3? Today, Hardware 3 has been lagging behind Hardware 4, now dubbed AI4.

Given what has been previously said at We, Robot, Elon and Tesla fully believed that autonomy - Unsupervised FSD and Robotaxi, would be possible on HW3. Now, that statement has been backtracked. Elon and Tesla’s top-notch engineers are no longer sure whether HW3 will be capable of meeting the expectations of a safe, autonomously driven vehicle.

With AI 5 entering into production in 2026, even AI4 has a short lease on production life. But what does that mean for HW3 vehicles today? Let’s dig in.

Tesla Will Upgrade HW3 If Needed

Elon has confirmed for the first time that if Tesla can not make autonomy work on HW3, they will upgrade the affected vehicles. That upgrade, of course, would be free for customers who purchased FSD on their HW3 vehicles. For the early Model 3 that came with Hardware 2.5, owners should also be able to get a free upgrade to newer hardware after they purchase FSD. Elon didn’t go into a lot of detail, but it’s not clear whether FSD subscribers would also get a free upgrade if needed, but it sounds like they would.

There are a few things to note here.

Elon didn’t provide a date for this potential future upgrade or any expectation of when HW3 will be officially considered legacy. Elon said that Tesla isn’t 100% sure whether FSD would be possible on HW3. Tesla’s approach to FSD will now be to make it work on HW4, then backport or find ways to make it work on HW3. At some point, it sounds like they may determine this to not be possible.

It’s in Tesla’s best interest financially to delay that decision as long as possible and instead move HW3 owners to AI4 or newer hardware through free FSD transfer opportunities.

However, if Tesla decides that HW3 doesn’t have enough compute power, there will always be a large number of vehicles that need to be upgraded. The Tesla drivetrain—motors and batteries—are built to last, and with less than 2% annual degradation being tracked by third parties, we can expect to see 2018 Model 3s still on the road in 2030 and beyond.

There is some chance that HW3 does not achieve a safety level that allows for unsupervised FSD

What’s the Upgrade?

Here’s the thing—Hardware 3 has lower-resolution cameras and uses a different wiring harness. AI4 and beyond use a unified harness and improved cameras. On the earnings call, Elon said that the upgrade would be an inference computer upgrade only.

That means better and faster processing and an improved FSD experience for users. It can also save Tesla money by having the AI team spend less time backporting FSD to HW3.

No Camera Upgrades

The unified wiring harness and the cameras in HW3 vehicles will remain since Tesla doesn’t see them hindering progress. The harness in HW3 vehicles isn’t capable of carrying more data or power, making upgrades to cameras or hardware difficult.

Tesla is already approaching autonomy-level capabilities on Hardware 3, so in their eyes, it's just a matter of improving the models and decision-making rather than increasing the raw pixel count coming in. According to Tesla, there will be no camera upgrades.

No Bumper Camera

We expect to see the front bumper camera added to more vehicles in the near future. The Cybercab and Cybertruck both already have front bumper cameras, while the Model Y Juniper Refresh has been seen with one as well. The Models S and X are also expecting a bumper camera whenever they get a refresh.

We’re not sure how much of an impact this will have on the robotaxi or Unsupervised FSD, but given that the refreshed Model 3 Highland didn’t come with the bumper camera last year alongside the Cybertruck, it may not be necessary.

HW 3.5 Upgrade

Many users are speculating that HW3 will be upgraded to HW4, but that is unlikely to be the case. As we mentioned, HW4 has a different wiring harness and cameras and those won’t easily fit into a HW3 vehicle due to space and power constraints.

Instead, Tesla will likely create a new inference chip and board made specifically for HW3 vehicles. It’ll need to be as powerful as HW4’s computer but much more efficient.

Tech progresses quickly, and what was once cutting-edge in 2017 is now left behind in the dust. So, this process of getting an HW4-capable computer working with the constraints of an HW3 vehicle will get easier the more time goes on. Tesla will likely start engineering the process in the future, using smaller transistors with a smaller process node, newer chipset-style processor designs, and overall better energy efficiency.

One thing to look out for is redundancy. This lets the FSD computer work on two separate chips, making sure they both reach the same conclusion before the vehicle acts on it. Redundancy helps with errors due to component failures, errors in processing or other issues. Hardware 3 was built with redundancy in mind, but Tesla has since removed it in order to use both nodes for processing power instead of redundancy. If and when Tesla releases the HW3 retrofit computer, it’ll be interesting to see if they include this back in.

When?

Right now, Tesla isn’t even sure whether an upgrade for HW3 will be needed. It sounds like that may be the case, but for now, Tesla isn’t for sure. They simply want to reassure owners that an upgrade will be available for HW3 if needed.

Tesla also doesn’t want to have to upgrade vehicles twice, so this upgrade will be the absolute last-ditch effort to get HW3 vehicles up to a safe level of autonomy. Even Tesla can’t be sure what it will take to completely solve autonomy yet, so they can’t build an upgrade until they know what it’ll take.

Don’t expect a HW3 upgrade before FSD is solved. Once Tesla knows the computing power and potentially other hardware required, then they can start thinking about retrofitting vehicles that don’t meet those requirements. Our best guess is that a HW3 upgrade is still years away.

World’s Largest Tesla Supercharger: 168 Stalls, 100% Off-Grid, Powered by Sun and Battery Storage

July 7, 2025

By Karan Singh

Not a Tesla App

In just 8 months, Tesla has gone from breaking ground to delivering electrons at its most ambitious Supercharger project to date, just in time to be ready for the busy Fourth of July holiday weekend. Project Oasis, the world’s largest Supercharger site, is now partially open to customers for its first phase in Lost Hills, California.

What makes this remarkable is the speed of execution. In just eight months, Tesla has constructed a site that will eventually feature 168 stalls (84 stalls are now open), supported by 11 MW of solar power and 10 Megapacks of battery storage. That construction speed is pretty impressive, but what is even more impressive is how this new station operates and what it means for future Supercharging infrastructure.

Self-Sufficient Energy Oasis

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The first 84 stalls at Lost Hills are now open, and according to the Tesla Charging team, they are currently powered solely by the sun and operate off-grid.

This makes it more than just a new Supercharger site. It serves as a proof of concept for a new type of Supercharger. Unlike nearly every other charging site in the world, which draws power from local utilities, this station generates its own clean electricity from its massive solar array and stores it in its array of on-site Megapacks.

Self-sufficient charging stations are something completely different than what we see today. They are highly resilient since they’re not reliant on the grid. That means that even if there is a local power outage, brownout, or blackout, one can always come to Lost Hills to Supercharge.

If you’ve got a Cybertruck, you could take advantage of the Cybertruck’s Powershare feature and charge up at Lost Hills to help keep your home powered during a blackout, utilizing the Cybertruck as a portable battery charger. Now that’s true independence and self-reliance.

The Future of Charging

Solar-powered Superchargers help avoid massive new loads on already stressed electrical grids, especially during peak afternoon and evening hours, when demand is the highest.

This is Tesla’s vision for the future of charging: a clean, fully closed-loop ecosystem that sustains itself. The sun’s energy is captured, stored, and delivered directly to vehicles on site at any time of day without relying on the electrical grid or fossil fuels.

Largest Supercharger in the World

This opening of 84 stalls is just the first phase of the project. Tesla says that the remaining stalls, as well as a new on-site lounge, are coming later this year. Once complete, the 168-stall site will be the largest Supercharger site in the world.

While the speed of building such a massive project in just eight months is a testament to Tesla’s execution, the true innovation is actually that self-sustainability. Let’s hope we see even more large, self-sufficient Supercharger sites across the world in the near future.

The future lounge

Not a Tesla App

Elon Musk Considers Solar Gigafactory in North America to Power AI Boom

July 7, 2025

By Karan Singh

Not a Tesla App

Elon Musk is once again seeking to expand Tesla’s vertical integration in the energy sector, this time focusing squarely on solar power. Following discussions on X that highlighted the massive gap in solar deployments between the US and China, Elon is now discussing the need for a Tesla Solar Gigafactory in the United States.

This potential move is driven by a specific catalyst: the exponential growth of AI is creating an insatiable demand for electricity. For Tesla and xAI, two of Elon’s companies betting their future on AI, building the power generation required is a strategic necessity.

A new factory wouldn’t just be about making panels; it would be about manufacturing the final missing piece in Tesla’s vertically integrated energy ecosystem.

Maybe there should be a solar Gigafactory in America
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 2, 2025

Catching Up to China

The context for this renewed focus is pretty stark. In May, China reportedly added a staggering 93 gigawatts (GW) of solar power capacity. In contrast, the United States installed approximately 14 GW over the entire first quarter, roughly 20 times less than China.

The primary driver of this demand is the revolution in AI. Training ever-larger and smarter AI models involves operating vast data centers, which consume staggering amounts of power. Google, Amazon, and Microsoft have turned to small-scale nuclear reactors, with Microsoft petitioning to reopen the infamous Three Mile Island for its AI operations.

For Elon’s companies, whose future products like FSD, Optimus, and Grok are built on a foundation of real-world AI, securing a massive and sustainable energy supply isn’t a side quest. It is part of the main mission, especially in conjunction with grid-scale storage, such as Megapacks and Powerwalls. You can’t power a world of autonomous robots without a world of abundant, clean energy.

The Tesla Ecosystem

A US solar gigafactory would be the final, logical step in completing Tesla’s energy hardware ecosystem. While Tesla already manufactures some solar panels and the Tesla solar roof, the scale is too minuscule to matter.

By mass-producing its own panels, while also increasing Solar Roof production, Tesla would become a true one-stop shop for all things green energy. This would allow the company to supply its own large-scale projects, like the massive solar array for Project Oasis - the world’s largest Supercharger site.

It would also enable more complete residential packages, like the Giga-Small Haus concept home, combining Tesla-made panels and roofs with a Powerwall 3. This level of vertical integration would give Tesla complete control over the technology, cost, and supply of every major component in its energy ecosystem, from generation to storage to mobility.

Building a new Solar Gigafactory is about much more than just simply producing solar panels. It’s a requirement to power Tesla’s future products and make solar panels accessible to everyone.