Tesla Analyst Believes Tesla Will Launch Uber Competitor

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Adam Jonas, the Managing Director for Global Auto and Shared Mobility with Morgan Stanley, released a note earlier this month about Tesla’s future Robotaxi service and some possible expectations for its upcoming Robotaxi event on Thursday.

Let’s take a look at what he has to say about Tesla.

Robotaxi Event

Jonas predicts that Tesla’s event will serve as a showcase for the Cybercab, showing off its capabilities and design features. Attendees will be shown and given rides in the Tesla Robotaxi at the event, which will provide a set of baseline expectations for Tesla’s future service.

Dual Approach

However, he predicts Tesla will roll out Robotaxi in a two-pronged approach. In his eyes, Tesla will offer a fully autonomous app-based robotaxi/Cybercab service, but it will also offer a second option, a “supervised” autonomous/FSD-based rideshare service. He believes that the second item here—the rideshare service—is the biggest one that will impact investors. This human-powered fleet will essentially be an Uber competitor, which raked in 10 billion dollars in revenue last quarter.

Targeting

Jonas breaks down Tesla’s approach to rolling out Robotaxi and Unsupervised FSD in the future. As we previously discussed in an article on Tesla’s future, Tesla will likely target urban and metro areas for its initial rollout of Cybercab. Other areas may receive service from the supervised rideshare service.

Jonas estimates the FSD take rate will approach 30% this year with the now lower prices. Tesla may choose to keep the FSD price low to continue the high adoption of the service. This will help Tesla build out its human-based network faster until it can achieve a fully autonomous fleet that will work anywhere.

Morgan Stanley also believes Tesla will offer more favorable rates than Uber and its competitors, leaving more money in the driver’s pocket while Tesla grows its rideshare community.

Uber

Uber will be a direct competitor to Tesla’s in-house rideshare service, and Teslas likely account for approximately 5-9% of all Uber trips today. Tesla will have to ensure that its new owners who intend to do ridesharing will switch to Tesla’s service rather than continue with Uber’s well-established taxi service.

We’ll see how the future rollout of Tesla’s Unsupervised FSD and Robotaxi goes on 10/10, which is just a few days away. Be sure to check out our article on what to expect at Tesla’s event.

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Tesla Vision-Based Monitoring Appears to be Live in Europe [VIDEO]

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With Tesla software update 2024.32.6, users on X have begun reporting a big difference in how Tesla’s Autopilot detects attention. While Tesla’s latest FSD versions in North America support vision-based attention monitoring when the cabin is well lit, the feature has yet to be officially released outside of the region or apply to Autopilot.

On FSD updates in North America, Tesla now only uses steering wheel torque on vehicles that don’t include a cabin camera or when the camera can’t see the driver properly.

Vision-Based Attention Monitoring

VBAM, or Vision-Based Attention Monitoring, was introduced to Full Self-Driving in FSD update V12.4 and subsequently rolled out wide to North American users on update V12.5.4.

However, it now seems that Europeans with update 2024.32.6 may be experiencing some form of vision-based monitoring as well. While the green dot of VBAM isn’t shown next to the Autopilot icon, users are noticing that they no longer need to apply resistance to the wheel while using Navigate on Autopilot.

Meanwhile, for regular Autopilot, nudges are still required – but users are reporting that simply having your hands on the steering wheel is now enough, and you no longer need to apply pressure to the wheel. It looks like Tesla may be using the cabin camera to monitor whether the user’s hands are on the steering wheel instead of detecting torque on the wheel.

In addition, while using Navigate on Autopilot, the driver no longer needs to apply torque to the wheel in order to accept a lane change. This has been one of the largest regulatory obstacles for Tesla to tackle and is partially what prevented FSD from rolling out in Europe in the first place.

In the EU, any autonomous vehicle actions, including changing lanes, had to be approved by the driver. This means the driver would need to nudge the steering wheel to accept lane changes or have the vehicle take an exit while on Navigate on Autopilot. This EU requirement was recently lifted, and this change to Navigate on Autopilot is a distinct sign that FSD could be around the corner for Europe.

We’re excited to see if Tesla hits its original timeline of Q1 2025 for FSD's release outside of North America. With these changes to VBAM and regulatory changes in the European Union, the goal finally appears to be in sight.

Video

A Tesla owner has recently posted a video that shows the new behavior in Europe.

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Tesla’s Robotaxi Event – What to Expect

Image released by Tesla

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Tesla’s Robotaxi event—We, Robot—is right around the corner. It takes place this Thursday, October 10th. Invites for the event were recently sent out in batches to those who won the shareholder raffle, and those who RSVP will receive their tickets 2-3 days before the event.

And it’ll be happening in none other than Hollywood, Los Angeles. The event will take place at the Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. Studios, a massive 110-acre location that includes large sets prepared for all sorts of movies and TV shows.

So, let’s take a minute to take stock of what we know about the event, and what we can expect.

What We Know

We know the event is taking place in and around Discovery Inc. Studios, as Tesla has been intensively gathering FSD data in the area around the studio before the event. In addition to that, some camouflaged Robotaxi prototypes have been seen driving around the actual Studio grounds.

What’s interesting is that Tesla has been intensively gathering data throughout San Francisco, Los Angeles, and the Bay Area – including certain destinations like the Tesla Diner in Hollywood. We saw Robotaxi Mules – vehicles equipped with cameras in places we expect the Robotaxi to have them – running the routes in these areas, gathering data ahead of time to train the FSD model.

We’ve also seen some official – and some fan – renderings of what we expect Cybercab – the Robotaxi – to look like. On top of all that, we’ve seen the patents for Robotaxi Sanitization and, most excitingly – wireless EV charging!

With all that, we have some of our own expectations for the event.

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What We Expect

There’s a lot of speculation about the Robotaxi, and lots of hints that Tesla has dropped over time. We expect Tesla to deliver a small, two-door sedan with two seats. The car is expected to have four wheels, although there was some speculation of three wheels at one point. It’ll likely include a good amount of trunk space for luggage as well. Based on camouflaged vehicles, sneak peeks Tesla has shared, and the Robotaxi mules, we expect the vehicle to be quite a bit smaller, although the body styling appears to be similar to a Model 3.

Tesla’s focus will likely be on autonomy and cheap production, so don’t expect large screens, rotating seats, tables, etc, in the vehicle. It’ll likely include a single screen in the middle like the Model 3. The UI for the vehicle will likely be very similar to production vehicles today but simplified since you won’t be able to control some aspects. There may also be new modules that will display important customer information front and center, such as their ETA and fare price.

We’re not sure how much Tesla will talk about FSD hardware at the event, as they won’t want customers to feel like they’re being left out, but we expect the Robotaxi to include Tesla’s upcoming Hardware 5 FSD suite or a completely different hardware that focuses on redundancy and safeguards that will be crucial to operate an autonomous fleet.

A concept of what the UI in the Robotaxi may look like

@dkrasniy

One of the key things we expect at the event is the opportunity for attendees to experience Robotaxi, along with the entire Tesla experience from start to finish. The event will probably start with a keynote address from Elon Musk and Ashok Elluswamy – the directors of the upcoming show.

It will likely progress to a virtual demonstration of Robotaxi – including how Tesla’s upcoming Robotaxi summoning will work via the Robotaxi app, and then a quick showing of some other information at the keynote. We’ll also find out whether or not Tesla will initially launch their Robotaxi network with Tesla-owned Robotaxis, customer-owned Robotaxis, or customer-supervised vehicles.

Hopefully, Tesla also showcases a few more things – including that wireless EV charging, and potentially some other things that have been behind the curtain.

The final and most exciting portion of the event will be when users get the opportunity to be hands-on with the Robotaxi. Hopefully, they’ll get access to the interface from their Tesla app and be able to summon a Robotaxi and have it take them somewhere on the studio grounds. This time will also serve as a chance for people to get up close and personal with Robotaxi, poke around and see any unique features of the vehicle. We still have a lot to learn about the vehicle.

Of course, these are just our expectations of the event. For all we know, it could turn out to be the same, but in reverse.

For those who have been lucky enough to receive a ticket, please let us know if you have a +1. We’d love to be able to cover the event in person and experience Robotaxi ourselves.

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