In response to the many questions the Tesla AI team receives daily, they’ve finally caved in and shared their FSD release roadmap. Release Roadmap. This roadmap outlines the upcoming feature improvements and plans for FSD in the short term, up to about Q1 2025.
We expect this roadmap to be more accurate than some of the timelines we’ve heard from Elon in the past for FSD releases, as it's something that the entire team has presumably had some input in.
Let’s take a look at what we’ve got coming up soon!
September 2024
September looks to be full of improvements for FSD V12.5, and some of them are quite exciting. First off Tesla outlines the improvements that are available with FSD v12.5.2, which recently started going out to HW3 and HW4 vehicles.
FSD 12.5.2 & Reduced Interventions - Tesla says that FSD 12.5.2 brings a 3x improvement between necessary interventions. That will be a great improvement, especially as users on FSD 12.5.1.5 have noted several major issues with the path planner, including braking on green lights and path-planning to the opposite side of traffic.
Larger FSD Model for HW3 - Another big September item is that v12.5.2 is confirmed to be a unified FSD model. The same AI model that powers FSD 12.5 on AI4 is now being shared with the less powerful hardware 3. HW3 was previously running a smaller FSD model that was less intensive, although we were told they would soon run the same model.
This is definitely great news, as v12.5.1 has a different model for HW3 and AI4. We expect HW3 to see a performance boost in capabilities with the newer model. Tesla releasing a unified model shows their commitment to continue developing and supporting older hardware, so we’re happy to see this. If you’re not sure which FSD hardware you have, you can check here.
Actually Smart Summon - The improved Summon was released to early access testers already, (including on HW3), but it’s also on the list for September for a wider release. The feature isn’t available on FSD v12.5.2, but it is on v12.5.3.
Cybertruck Autopark - The Cybertruck which recently received High-Fidelity Park Assist, will be receiving AutoPark this weekend. Later this month Tesla says it will also receive full FSD support. Some Cybertruck owners have been waiting close to a year waiting for FSD capabilities, but with four-wheel steering, steer-by-wire, and cameras in slightly different locations, it’s not surprising it’s taken longer to implement. The Cybertruck is Tesla’s only vehicle with a front bumper camera, so it’ll be interesting to see if Tesla will leverage this camera for FSD in addition to the vehicle’s other 8 cameras.
Vision-Monitoring With Sunglasses - One of Tesla’s latest features, eye tracking, replaces the previous steering wheel torque detection. Tesla confirms that they’ll add support for vision monitoring with sunglasses in September. This feature isn’t available in FSD 12.5.3, so it could be a part of FSD 12.5.4 or FSD 12.6. Newer Tesla vehicles feature infra-red lights near the cabin camera which allows the camera to see at night. It’s not clear whether Tesla will leverage IR lights to help see-through sunglasses or what kind of sunglasses will be allowed.
End-to-end on the Highway - Tesla says they’ll also support end-to-end FSD for highway driving, which should be a huge improvement – as highways are still running the FSD v11 stack. End-to-end allows for AI to control the vehicle’s output like acceleration and steering instead of just input from cameras. When E2E was implemented for city-driving it was a huge boost, and we expect to see similar improvements for highway driving.
End-to-end for highway driving will only be included on the latest FSD versions for now, but at some point we expect the same end-to-end highway support to trickle down to regular Autopilot highway use, even outside of North America. The vehicle may not be more capable, but what it’s allowed to do in other regions will be smoother.
October 2024
Tesla AI seems to be focusing on Unpark, Park, and Reverse in FSD for October 2024. This appears to have been a milestone for a while now which we’re associating with Tesla’s previous comments on Park Seek and Banish Autopark. These two features allow the vehicle to drive around a parking lot by itself, find a parking spot, and finally park itself. These functions are necessary for Robotaxi to function, and with the Robotaxi event taking place in October, it’s a good fit that these features are also coming along for the ride — at least in an internal beta the Robotaxi will be running.
Unpark - Tesla mentions “unpark,” which sounds very much like Actually Smart Summon — essentially having the vehicle remove itself from a parking spot and start driving. These capabilities appear to be coming to FSD. You'll be able to start FSD from a parked position and the vehicle will back up and exit the parking spot before it starts driving to your destination.
Park - “Park,” could see some improvements over what is available today. Right now Tesla’s new AutoPark feature is only capable of backing a vehicle into a parking spot, which actually isn’t allowed in some areas. With improvements to Park, we could see the ability for the vehicle to go nose-in into parking spots or maybe support angled parking spaces.
Parking in FSD is a feature we’ve also been waiting for. Eventually, the car should be able to navigate to a parking lot, cruise around until it finds a parking stall, and then AutoPark should be initiated. Musk said this was coming to FSD back in May, so it seems like we may finally be close. You could see the pieces coming together where Actually Smart Summon can now traverse parking lots and Autopark can park itself. It’s just a matter of piecing these together.
Banish AutoPark is expected to be an upgrade to the current Autopark feature – where the vehicle drops you off near the entrance to your destination and then finds a parking stall autonomously, and parks itself entirely without user intervention. This is one feature we’re super excited about and is pretty much the opposite of Actually Smart Summon.
Reverse in FSD - Reversing capability for FSD will be huge. It’ll allow the vehicle to perform much more complex turns and even back up when it has gone too far into an intersection. Currently, FSD cannot shift into reverse, but users have already noticed that the path planner is capable of thinking about switching to reverse but is unable to. Reverse may already be part of the FSD model, but Tesla has a strict rule that doesn’t allow the vehicle to be put into reverse.
The ability for the vehicle to go in reverse will be critical to get the vehicle moving in and out of parking lots, as well as making tight three-point turns, so we’re excited to see what this will enable FSD to do.
FSD V13 - The final item Tesla lists for FSD in October is FSD v13. Tesla says v13 will bring a 6x improvement in miles between necessary interventions. That’s a huge leap, but we’ve heard similar numbers in the past that didn’t come to fruition, so we’ll have to wait and see. Tesla doesn’t release a major FSD version without large architectural improvements, so we do expect major improvements in capabilities or interventions — or both.
Q1 2025 - FSD Outside of North America
To go along with all the FSD improvements, Tesla also announced its FSD expansion plans and timelines. Tesla specifically outlined that they expect to launch FSD in Europe and China in Q1 of 2025. However, Tesla did say that this is pending regulatory approval. If Tesla has FSD ready for these markets, they should be able to launch at least portions of it in some countries.
This is definitely a slip from Tesla’s original release plan of EOY 2024 for FSD in Europe and China, but it's still a good sign to see the light at the end of the tunnel. We recently found out that the FSD test for China was put on hold, which could explain some of the delays.
Q2 2025 - FSD for Right Hand Drive
This time frame seems a bit more flexible following a comment from Elon on the post, but it seems that right-hand drive markets will take a bit longer than the team initially expected. Musk followed up saying that RHD markets will arrive in late Q1/Q2, pending approval.
The Tesla AI team has been hard at work getting FSD prepared for RHD markets, while other parts of Tesla have been working closely with national and regional governments to get approval for FSD.
Overall, this roadmap looks fantastic, and we’re happy to see Tesla AI providing this information to reduce speculation and help provide real timelines to Tesla owners. This is a super-packed release roadmap, and all the upcoming features and updates are going to be coming in back-to-back until the end of this year, with more around the corner next year!
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The Super Manifold is Tesla’s solution to reducing the complexity of a heat pump system for an EV. Tesla showed off its engineering chops back with the original Model Y in 2019, where it introduced a new 8-way valve (the Octovalve) and a new heat pump alongside the uniquely designed Super Manifold to improve efficiency.
Now, Tesla is launching an improved version with the refreshed Model Y - the Super Manifold V2. We got to hear about it thanks to Sandy Munro’s interview with Tesla’s Lars Moravy (Vice President of Vehicle Engineering) and Franz Von Holzhausen (Chief of Vehicle Design). You can watch the video further below.
What Is The Super Manifold?
The Super Manifold (get it, Superman?), is an all-in-one package that brings in all the components of a heat pump system into one component. The Super Manifold packs all the refrigerant and coolant components around a 2-layer PCB (printed circuit board).
This Super Manifold would normally have 15 or 20 separate components, but Tesla managed to integrate them all into one nice package. That presented Tesla with a new challenge: how to integrate a heat pump—capable of both heating and cooling—into a single, efficient platform?
Several years ago, Tesla designed the Octovalve. It combines inlets and outlets and can variably change between heating or cooling on the fly - without needing to be plumbed in different directions. This is especially important for EVs, which may need to heat the battery with the waste heat generated from the motors or the heat pump while also cooling the cabin - or vice versa.
Original Super Manifold V1.1
Tesla launched the Super Manifold V1.1 back in 2022, and it provided some minor improvements to the waste heat processing of the heat exchange system. It also tightened up the Octovalve, preventing the leakage of oils into the HVAC loop that could cause it to freeze at extremely low temperatures.
Tesla has been using the V1.1 for several years now, and it has really solved the vast majority of issues with the heat pump system that many older Model Ys experienced.
Super Manifold V2 Coming Soon
Now, Tesla is introducing the Super Manifold V2 in the new Model Y. It will improve the overall cooling capacity provided by the original Super Manifold, but unfortunately, not every single new Model Y will come with it equipped. Tesla will be introducing it slowly across the lineup and at different rates at different factories, depending on part availability.
Eventually, the Super Manifold V2 will also make its way to other vehicles, potentially including the upcoming refresh for the Model S and Model X, but initially, it’ll be exclusive to the new Model Y. Tesla expects to have the new manifold in every new Model Y later this year.
If you’re interested in checking out the whole video, we’ve got it for you below.
Mark Rober, of glitter bomb package fame, recently released a video titled Can You Fool A Self-Driving Car? (posted below). Of course, the vehicle featured in the video was none other than a Tesla - but there’s a lot wrong with this video that we’d like to discuss.
We did some digging and let the last couple of days play out before making our case. Mark Rober’s Wile E. Coyote video is fatally flawed.
The Premise
Mark Rober wanted to prove whether or not it was possible to fool a self-driving vehicle, using various test scenarios. These included a wall painted to look like a road, low-lying fog, mannequins, hurricane-force rain, and bright beams.
All of these individual “tests” had their own issues - not least because Mark didn’t adhere to any sort of testing methodology, but because he was looking for a result - and edited his tests until he was sure of it.
Interestingly, many folks on X were quick to spot that Mark had been previously sponsored by Google to use a Pixel phone - but was using an iPhone to record within the vehicle - which he had edited to look like a Pixel phone for some reason. This, alongside other poor edits and cuts, led many, including us, to believe that Mark’s testing was edited and flawed.
Flaw 1: Autopilot, Not FSD
Let’s take a look at the first flaw. Mark tested Autopilot - not FSD. Autopilot is a driving aid for lane centering and speed control - and is not the least bit autonomous. It cannot take evasive maneuvers outside the lane it is in, but it can use the full stable of Tesla’s extensive features, including Automatic Emergency Braking, Forward Collision Warnings, Blind Spot Collision Warnings, and Lane Departure Avoidance.
On the other hand, FSD is allowed and capable of departing the lane to avoid a collision. That means that even if Autopilot tried to stop and was unable to, it would still impact whatever obstacle was in front of it - unlike FSD.
As we continue with the FSD argument - remember that Autopilot is running on a 5-year-old software stack that hasn’t seen updates. Sadly, this is the reality of Tesla not updating the Autopilot stack for quite some time. It seems likely that they’ll eventually bring a trimmed-down version of FSD to replace Autopilot, but that hasn’t happened yet.
Mark later admitted that he used Autopilot rather than FSD because “You cannot engage FSD without putting in a destination,” which is also incorrect. It is possible to engage FSD without a destination, but FSD chooses its own route. Where it goes isn’t within your control until you select a destination, but it tends to navigate through roads in a generally forward direction.
The whole situation, from not having FSD on the vehicle to not knowing you can activate FSD without a destination, suggests Mark is rather unfamiliar with FSD and likely has limited exposure to the feature.
Let’s keep in mind that FSD costs $99 for a single month, so there’s no excuse for him not using it in this video.
Flaw 2: Cancelling AP and Pushing Pedals
Many people on X also followed up with reports that Mark was pushing the pedals or pulling on the steering wheel. When you tap on the brake pedal or pull or jerk the steering wheel too much, Autopilot will disengage. For some reason, during each of his “tests,” Mark closely held the steering wheel of the vehicle.
This comes off as rather odd - at the extremely short distances he was enabling AP at, there wouldn’t be enough time for a wheel nag or takeover warning required. In addition, we can visibly see him pulling the steering wheel before “impact” in multiple tests.
Over on X, techAU breaks it down excellently on a per-test basis. Mark did not engage AP in several tests, and he potentially used the accelerator pedal during the first test - which means that Automatic Emergency Braking is overridden. In another test, Mark admitted to using the pedals.
Flaw 3: Luminar Sponsored
This video was potentially sponsored by a LiDAR manufacturer - Luminar. Although Mark says that this isn’t the case. Interestingly, Luminar makes LiDAR rigs for Tesla - who uses them to test ground truth accuracy for FSD. Just as interesting, Luminar’s Earnings Call was also coming up at the time of the video’s posting.
Luminar had linked the video at the top of their homepage but has since taken it down. While Mark did not admit to being sponsored by Luminar, there appear to be more distinct conflicts of interest, as Mark’s charity foundation has received donations from Luminar’s CEO.
Given the positivity of the results for Luminar, it seems that the video had been well-designed and well-timed to take advantage of the current wave of negativity against Tesla, while also driving up Luminar’s stock.
Flaw 4: Vision-based Depth Estimation
The next flaw to address is the fact that humans and machines can judge depth using vision. On X, user Abdou ran the “invisible wall” through a monocular depth estimation model (DepthAnythingV2) - one that uses a single image with a single angle. This fairly simplified model can estimate the distance and depth of items inside an image - and it was able to differentiate the fake wall from its surroundings easily.
Tesla’s FSD uses a far more advanced multi-angle, multi-image tool that stitches together and creates a 3D model of the environment around it and then analyzes the result for decision-making and prediction. Tesla’s more refined and complex model would be far more able to easily detect such an obstacle - and these innovations are far more recent than the 5-year-old Autopilot stack.
While detecting distances is more difficult in a single image, once you have multiple images, such as in a video feed, you can more easily decipher between objects and determine distances by tracking the size of each pixel as the object approaches. Essentially, if all pixels are growing at a constant rate, then that means it’s a flat object — like a wall.
Case in Point: Chinese FSD Testers
To make the case stronger - some Chinese FSD testers took to the streets and put up a semi-transparent sheet - which the vehicle refused to drive through or drive near. It would immediately attempt to maneuver away each time the test was engaged - and refused to advance with a pedestrian standing in the road.
Would FSD hit a transparent film wall? This test showed it just avoids it.
Thanks to Douyin and Aaron Li for putting this together, as it makes an excellent basic example of how FSD would handle such a situation in real life.
Flaw 5: The Follow-Up Video and Interview
Following the community backlash, Mark released a video on X, hoping to resolve the community’s concerns. However, this also backfired. It turned out Mark’s second video was of an entirely different take than the one in the original video - this was at a different speed, angle, and time of initiation.
Mark then followed up with an interview with Philip DeFranco (below), where he said that there were multiple takes and that he used Autopilot because he didn’t know that FSD could be engaged without a destination. He also answered here that Luminar supposedly did not pay him for the video - even with their big showing as the “leader in LiDAR technology” throughout the video.
Putting It All Together
Overall, Mark’s video was rather duplicitous - he recorded multiple takes to get what he needed, prevented Tesla’s software from functioning properly by intervening, and used an outdated feature set that isn’t FSD - like his video is titled.
Upcoming Videos
Several other video creators are already working to replicate what Mark “tried” to test in this video.
To get a complete picture, we need to see unedited takes, even if they’re included at the end of the video. The full vehicle specifications should also be disclosed. Additionally, the test should be conducted using Tesla’s latest hardware and software—specifically, an HW4 vehicle running FSD v13.2.8.
In Mark’s video, Autopilot was engaged just seconds before impact. However, for a proper evaluation, FSD should be activated much earlier, allowing it time to react and, if capable, stop before hitting the wall.
A wave of new videos is likely on the way—stay tuned, and we’ll be sure to cover the best ones.
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