Last night Tesla rolled out update 2024.26.15 which included FSD v12.5.1.4. Although the release notes remain the same with this update, the big news is that Tesla has finally added support for hardware 3 vehicles to this FSD 12.5 version.
Once the release went out, we heard rumblings early on that update 2024.26.15 may add support for hardware 3, however, today we’ve been able to confirm that Tesla has HW3 vehicles running this latest FSD update.
Elon Musk initially said that FSD 12.5 was expected to be available for HW3 in about 10 days after it rolled out to AI4. Although that date has come and passed, it finally arrived for employees last night. Although It’s only been about three weeks, it felt like an eternity for HW3 owners who have been anxiously awaiting this update. Many owners weren’t sure whether their vehicles would be able to run the latest version of FSD once the original goal of 10 days was missed. This is one area where Tesla can stand to improve — consumer communication.
Rollout Plan
Although Tesla has internal HW3 vehicles running update FSD 12.5.1.4, their public rollout plan may not go to HW3 vehicles initially. Tesla may choose to roll out the update to vehicles with HW4 first to confirm there are no regressions before proceeding with the launch on HW3 vehicles.
Keep in mind that not every release that goes to employees ends up going out to the public. However, most releases usually start rolling out to early-access customers within a few days if there are no major issues.
HW3 vehicles are currently running FSD v12.3.6, while most HW4 (AI4) vehicles are running FSD v12.5.1.3. FSD v12.5 in general includes a huge array of optimizations and is supposed to be as big an improvement as the capability jump between v11 and v12.
We don’t expect any new features in FSD v12.5.1.4 besides HW3 support as that would complicate solving any potential regressions. However, we’re still awaiting several new features that come in a later version of FSD v12.5 such as nag-less FSD using sunglasses, FSD support on the Cybertruck, improved lane changes, end-to-end neural networks on the highway, and even Actually Smart Summon.
What’s Included & Who’s Eligible
This update is based on Tesla’s 2024.26 code branch, meaning that everyone who subscribes or owns FSD will be eligible to receive it. Tesla is already testing update 2024.32, but it hasn’t gone out to customers yet.
FSD V12.5 rolled out to AI4 vehicles much earlier than hardware 3 vehicles – as code optimization was required to have the FSD model run on the older hardware. It seems that the extra compute offered by AI4 vehicles has allowed Tesla to release V12.5 faster, which also helps them gather more data.
Now that HW3 support has been released, this could set the new tempo for new updates. Major FSD updates – V12.6 or V12.7 will likely also have AI4 support before hardware 3 support, as it seems easier to develop with more hardware power and then later optimize code once you have a working product. However, Tesla has committed to maintaining hardware 3 support, even if the code requires optimization to function on older hardware.
Divergence
AI4 only really started rolling out in the middle of last year, with most customer vehicles arriving with AI4 near May 2023. The optimization gap has been a surprise, especially since AI4 is still running hardware 3 in emulation mode. There will be a divergence between AI4 and Hardware 3, and Elon has mentioned that the new supercomputer cluster will be dedicated to preparing for AI4, and in the future, AI5.
This is going to be a big one for most people – after all, we’re estimating that nearly 85% of Tesla’s current fleet, if not more, is still on hardware 3. Did Tesla manage to fit the complete AI model, with all its parameters – a 6x increase over V12.3.6 – onto Hardware 3?
If there were compromises, we’ll need to watch and see. Hopefully, some enterprising Tesla X or YouTube owners will record a test drive on v12.5.1.4 on both, a HW3 and AI4 vehicle for us to compare the differences. We’re hoping that since the official divergence of hardware hasn’t happened yet, at this point, we won’t see any differences.
Upcoming Features
Once FSD v12.5 rolls out to hardware 3 vehicles, we can look forward to the upcoming list of features, including more natural and better-planned turns, the E2N highway stack, and vision-only monitoring with sunglasses. Of course, there are a few other hotly anticipated features we’re waiting for, but which aren’t on the Upcoming Improvements list provided in the patch notes – including Park Seek and Banish Autopark, as well as vehicle-to-fleet communications and FSD understanding hand gestures.
We’re hoping to see these features come in point releases of FSD V12.5, which means they should arrive at similar times for HW3 and AI4 vehicles.
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Tesla signaled its intention to launch its first Robotaxi network in Austin, Texas, with company-owned and operated vehicles, back in January. This network will be Tesla’s first foray into truly autonomous vehicles - ones that aren’t being directly supervised by a driver. Later in February, Tesla’s executive team confirmed that the plans were on track for the launch of the Austin network both on X and during several interviews that they participated in.
At the end of February, we also found out that Tesla has applied for a Supervised Robotaxi license in California, where the network will also launch, but with safety drivers in place.
This is an ambitious plan, but FSD has really come a long way in the past year. FSD V12 was a massive step forward from V11, and V13 has made the experience smoother and safer than ever before. FSD V14 is expected to be another big step up with auto-regressive transformers and audio input.
Still on Track
Now, Elon has tripled down on the fact that Tesla will be launching their first autonomous robotaxi network in Austin - just two months away at this point. It seems that Tesla is fully set to launch their first fully unsupervised self-driving vehicles that will carry paying passengers in June.
Additional Cities
The best part is that Elon also confirmed that they’re targeting robotaxi networks launching in many cities within the United States by the end of this year. However, remember that this will be a Tesla-run network at first - Tesla owners won’t be able to add their vehicles to the Robotaxi fleet right away.
Adding Customer Vehicles
It will take some time before Tesla meets their strict internal safety requirements before it lets customers add their own vehicles to the network. Tesla’s executive team mentioned that they intend to let owners add their own vehicles to the fleet sometime in 2026. This happens to be the same time frame that Tesla plans to launch the Robotaxi across the United States, Mexico, and Canada — something that could only be done with customer-owned cars.
That final step will be bold—and it may come with complications, especially given that autonomous vehicle approval spans municipal, state or provincial, and even federal levels. There are plenty of regulatory hurdles ahead, but this is undoubtedly shaping up to be one of the most exciting times for Tesla.
Launch Event
With the Robotaxi network launching and Unsupervised FSD just around the corner, there’s a lot to get excited about. Tesla is expected to host a launch event at Gigafactory Texas in Austin to mark the debut of its first Robotaxi network. The company previously hinted that referral code users could receive invites—offering a rare chance to score an early ride in a Robotaxi outside the Hollywood studio lot.
Tesla’s engineering mule vehicles—used to test autonomy for future platforms—have resurfaced after an extended absence. The last time we saw them was back in July, when Tesla was gearing up for its initial We, Robot event. Since then, sightings have been scarce.
These vehicles typically signal that Tesla is testing new camera placements or validating FSD ground-truth data. This time, however, they appear to be outfitted exclusively with the updated camera hardware seen on the Cybercab.
New Sightings
The mules have now been spotted in Boston, Massachusetts, and Concord, New Hampshire—their first known appearances this far east. This suggests Tesla is actively collecting data to evaluate and optimize FSD performance in new regions. Thanks to Reddit user Ready_Medium_6693 for catching the one in Concord.
Elon Musk recently mentioned that Tesla plans to expand Robotaxi networks beyond the initial Texas and California launches. So while these sightings aren’t entirely unexpected, the speed of their arrival is. It suggests Tesla is confident in its ability to train FSD for local traffic rules and driving behaviors to the point it no longer needs a driver.
Bumper Cameras
The vehicle that’s been spotted in Boston is the usual Tesla engineering Model 3… except with one unique twist. It includes a front bumper camera. Shout out to @Dylan02939106 for catching the bumper camera in these photos.
The Refreshed Model 3 Mule with a Bumper Camera!
@Dylan02939106 on X
We previously released an opinion piece regarding whether the front bumper camera would be required for Unsupervised FSD. In our eyes, Tesla will require a bumper camera for Unsupervised FSD - if only to improve direct visibility in the bumper area of the vehicle. This is key for low-speed maneuvering in crowded areas like parking lots and garages, as well as for key features like Actually Smart Summon.
It isn’t surprising that Tesla is continuing to evaluate vehicles with a bumper camera - the Cybertruck, Cybercab, and Refreshed Model Y all have them now - and the rest of the lineup, including the flagship Model S and X, as well as the refreshed Model 3 - were supposed to eventually receive them as well.
With the Model S and Model X set for refreshes this year—and the front bumper camera on this Model 3 looking well-integrated rather than a temporary setup—it seems likely that front bumper cameras will soon become standard across Tesla’s entire lineup.
The Robotaxi Mule in Boston
@Dylan02939106 on X
In fact, Tesla’s newest iteration of the FSD computer has a slot for the Bumper Camera on all AI4/HW4 vehicles, so a future retrofit could even be possible.
These are some pretty exciting times - we may see Robotaxi networks actually deploy in time for Tesla’s lofty goal of “sometime in 2026” for cities throughout North America. Once many American cities begin to accept their deployment, it will be easier to seek homologation in Mexico and Canada, enabling deployment throughout the continent.