Last night Tesla rolled out update 2024.26.15 which included FSD v12.5.1.4. Although the release notes remain the same with this update, the big news is that Tesla has finally added support for hardware 3 vehicles to this FSD 12.5 version.
Once the release went out, we heard rumblings early on that update 2024.26.15 may add support for hardware 3, however, today we’ve been able to confirm that Tesla has HW3 vehicles running this latest FSD update.
Elon Musk initially said that FSD 12.5 was expected to be available for HW3 in about 10 days after it rolled out to AI4. Although that date has come and passed, it finally arrived for employees last night. Although It’s only been about three weeks, it felt like an eternity for HW3 owners who have been anxiously awaiting this update. Many owners weren’t sure whether their vehicles would be able to run the latest version of FSD once the original goal of 10 days was missed. This is one area where Tesla can stand to improve — consumer communication.
Rollout Plan
Although Tesla has internal HW3 vehicles running update FSD 12.5.1.4, their public rollout plan may not go to HW3 vehicles initially. Tesla may choose to roll out the update to vehicles with HW4 first to confirm there are no regressions before proceeding with the launch on HW3 vehicles.
Keep in mind that not every release that goes to employees ends up going out to the public. However, most releases usually start rolling out to early-access customers within a few days if there are no major issues.
HW3 vehicles are currently running FSD v12.3.6, while most HW4 (AI4) vehicles are running FSD v12.5.1.3. FSD v12.5 in general includes a huge array of optimizations and is supposed to be as big an improvement as the capability jump between v11 and v12.
We don’t expect any new features in FSD v12.5.1.4 besides HW3 support as that would complicate solving any potential regressions. However, we’re still awaiting several new features that come in a later version of FSD v12.5 such as nag-less FSD using sunglasses, FSD support on the Cybertruck, improved lane changes, end-to-end neural networks on the highway, and even Actually Smart Summon.
What’s Included & Who’s Eligible
This update is based on Tesla’s 2024.26 code branch, meaning that everyone who subscribes or owns FSD will be eligible to receive it. Tesla is already testing update 2024.32, but it hasn’t gone out to customers yet.
FSD V12.5 rolled out to AI4 vehicles much earlier than hardware 3 vehicles – as code optimization was required to have the FSD model run on the older hardware. It seems that the extra compute offered by AI4 vehicles has allowed Tesla to release V12.5 faster, which also helps them gather more data.
Now that HW3 support has been released, this could set the new tempo for new updates. Major FSD updates – V12.6 or V12.7 will likely also have AI4 support before hardware 3 support, as it seems easier to develop with more hardware power and then later optimize code once you have a working product. However, Tesla has committed to maintaining hardware 3 support, even if the code requires optimization to function on older hardware.
Divergence
AI4 only really started rolling out in the middle of last year, with most customer vehicles arriving with AI4 near May 2023. The optimization gap has been a surprise, especially since AI4 is still running hardware 3 in emulation mode. There will be a divergence between AI4 and Hardware 3, and Elon has mentioned that the new supercomputer cluster will be dedicated to preparing for AI4, and in the future, AI5.
This is going to be a big one for most people – after all, we’re estimating that nearly 85% of Tesla’s current fleet, if not more, is still on hardware 3. Did Tesla manage to fit the complete AI model, with all its parameters – a 6x increase over V12.3.6 – onto Hardware 3?
If there were compromises, we’ll need to watch and see. Hopefully, some enterprising Tesla X or YouTube owners will record a test drive on v12.5.1.4 on both, a HW3 and AI4 vehicle for us to compare the differences. We’re hoping that since the official divergence of hardware hasn’t happened yet, at this point, we won’t see any differences.
Upcoming Features
Once FSD v12.5 rolls out to hardware 3 vehicles, we can look forward to the upcoming list of features, including more natural and better-planned turns, the E2N highway stack, and vision-only monitoring with sunglasses. Of course, there are a few other hotly anticipated features we’re waiting for, but which aren’t on the Upcoming Improvements list provided in the patch notes – including Park Seek and Banish Autopark, as well as vehicle-to-fleet communications and FSD understanding hand gestures.
We’re hoping to see these features come in point releases of FSD V12.5, which means they should arrive at similar times for HW3 and AI4 vehicles.
The Super Manifold is Tesla’s solution to reducing the complexity of a heat pump system for an EV. Tesla showed off its engineering chops back with the original Model Y in 2019, where it introduced a new 8-way valve (the Octovalve) and a new heat pump alongside the uniquely designed Super Manifold to improve efficiency.
Now, Tesla is launching an improved version with the refreshed Model Y - the Super Manifold V2. We got to hear about it thanks to Sandy Munro’s interview with Tesla’s Lars Moravy (Vice President of Vehicle Engineering) and Franz Von Holzhausen (Chief of Vehicle Design). You can watch the video further below.
What Is The Super Manifold?
The Super Manifold (get it, Superman?), is an all-in-one package that brings in all the components of a heat pump system into one component. The Super Manifold packs all the refrigerant and coolant components around a 2-layer PCB (printed circuit board).
This Super Manifold would normally have 15 or 20 separate components, but Tesla managed to integrate them all into one nice package. That presented Tesla with a new challenge: how to integrate a heat pump—capable of both heating and cooling—into a single, efficient platform?
Several years ago, Tesla designed the Octovalve. It combines inlets and outlets and can variably change between heating or cooling on the fly - without needing to be plumbed in different directions. This is especially important for EVs, which may need to heat the battery with the waste heat generated from the motors or the heat pump while also cooling the cabin - or vice versa.
Original Super Manifold V1.1
Tesla launched the Super Manifold V1.1 back in 2022, and it provided some minor improvements to the waste heat processing of the heat exchange system. It also tightened up the Octovalve, preventing the leakage of oils into the HVAC loop that could cause it to freeze at extremely low temperatures.
Tesla has been using the V1.1 for several years now, and it has really solved the vast majority of issues with the heat pump system that many older Model Ys experienced.
Super Manifold V2 Coming Soon
Now, Tesla is introducing the Super Manifold V2 in the new Model Y. It will improve the overall cooling capacity provided by the original Super Manifold, but unfortunately, not every single new Model Y will come with it equipped. Tesla will be introducing it slowly across the lineup and at different rates at different factories, depending on part availability.
Eventually, the Super Manifold V2 will also make its way to other vehicles, potentially including the upcoming refresh for the Model S and Model X, but initially, it’ll be exclusive to the new Model Y. Tesla expects to have the new manifold in every new Model Y later this year.
If you’re interested in checking out the whole video, we’ve got it for you below.
Mark Rober, of glitter bomb package fame, recently released a video titled Can You Fool A Self-Driving Car? (posted below). Of course, the vehicle featured in the video was none other than a Tesla - but there’s a lot wrong with this video that we’d like to discuss.
We did some digging and let the last couple of days play out before making our case. Mark Rober’s Wile E. Coyote video is fatally flawed.
The Premise
Mark Rober wanted to prove whether or not it was possible to fool a self-driving vehicle, using various test scenarios. These included a wall painted to look like a road, low-lying fog, mannequins, hurricane-force rain, and bright beams.
All of these individual “tests” had their own issues - not least because Mark didn’t adhere to any sort of testing methodology, but because he was looking for a result - and edited his tests until he was sure of it.
Interestingly, many folks on X were quick to spot that Mark had been previously sponsored by Google to use a Pixel phone - but was using an iPhone to record within the vehicle - which he had edited to look like a Pixel phone for some reason. This, alongside other poor edits and cuts, led many, including us, to believe that Mark’s testing was edited and flawed.
Flaw 1: Autopilot, Not FSD
Let’s take a look at the first flaw. Mark tested Autopilot - not FSD. Autopilot is a driving aid for lane centering and speed control - and is not the least bit autonomous. It cannot take evasive maneuvers outside the lane it is in, but it can use the full stable of Tesla’s extensive features, including Automatic Emergency Braking, Forward Collision Warnings, Blind Spot Collision Warnings, and Lane Departure Avoidance.
On the other hand, FSD is allowed and capable of departing the lane to avoid a collision. That means that even if Autopilot tried to stop and was unable to, it would still impact whatever obstacle was in front of it - unlike FSD.
As we continue with the FSD argument - remember that Autopilot is running on a 5-year-old software stack that hasn’t seen updates. Sadly, this is the reality of Tesla not updating the Autopilot stack for quite some time. It seems likely that they’ll eventually bring a trimmed-down version of FSD to replace Autopilot, but that hasn’t happened yet.
Mark later admitted that he used Autopilot rather than FSD because “You cannot engage FSD without putting in a destination,” which is also incorrect. It is possible to engage FSD without a destination, but FSD chooses its own route. Where it goes isn’t within your control until you select a destination, but it tends to navigate through roads in a generally forward direction.
The whole situation, from not having FSD on the vehicle to not knowing you can activate FSD without a destination, suggests Mark is rather unfamiliar with FSD and likely has limited exposure to the feature.
Let’s keep in mind that FSD costs $99 for a single month, so there’s no excuse for him not using it in this video.
Flaw 2: Cancelling AP and Pushing Pedals
Many people on X also followed up with reports that Mark was pushing the pedals or pulling on the steering wheel. When you tap on the brake pedal or pull or jerk the steering wheel too much, Autopilot will disengage. For some reason, during each of his “tests,” Mark closely held the steering wheel of the vehicle.
This comes off as rather odd - at the extremely short distances he was enabling AP at, there wouldn’t be enough time for a wheel nag or takeover warning required. In addition, we can visibly see him pulling the steering wheel before “impact” in multiple tests.
Over on X, techAU breaks it down excellently on a per-test basis. Mark did not engage AP in several tests, and he potentially used the accelerator pedal during the first test - which means that Automatic Emergency Braking is overridden. In another test, Mark admitted to using the pedals.
Flaw 3: Luminar Sponsored
This video was potentially sponsored by a LiDAR manufacturer - Luminar. Although Mark says that this isn’t the case. Interestingly, Luminar makes LiDAR rigs for Tesla - who uses them to test ground truth accuracy for FSD. Just as interesting, Luminar’s Earnings Call was also coming up at the time of the video’s posting.
Luminar had linked the video at the top of their homepage but has since taken it down. While Mark did not admit to being sponsored by Luminar, there appear to be more distinct conflicts of interest, as Mark’s charity foundation has received donations from Luminar’s CEO.
Given the positivity of the results for Luminar, it seems that the video had been well-designed and well-timed to take advantage of the current wave of negativity against Tesla, while also driving up Luminar’s stock.
Flaw 4: Vision-based Depth Estimation
The next flaw to address is the fact that humans and machines can judge depth using vision. On X, user Abdou ran the “invisible wall” through a monocular depth estimation model (DepthAnythingV2) - one that uses a single image with a single angle. This fairly simplified model can estimate the distance and depth of items inside an image - and it was able to differentiate the fake wall from its surroundings easily.
Tesla’s FSD uses a far more advanced multi-angle, multi-image tool that stitches together and creates a 3D model of the environment around it and then analyzes the result for decision-making and prediction. Tesla’s more refined and complex model would be far more able to easily detect such an obstacle - and these innovations are far more recent than the 5-year-old Autopilot stack.
While detecting distances is more difficult in a single image, once you have multiple images, such as in a video feed, you can more easily decipher between objects and determine distances by tracking the size of each pixel as the object approaches. Essentially, if all pixels are growing at a constant rate, then that means it’s a flat object — like a wall.
Case in Point: Chinese FSD Testers
To make the case stronger - some Chinese FSD testers took to the streets and put up a semi-transparent sheet - which the vehicle refused to drive through or drive near. It would immediately attempt to maneuver away each time the test was engaged - and refused to advance with a pedestrian standing in the road.
Would FSD hit a transparent film wall? This test showed it just avoids it.
Thanks to Douyin and Aaron Li for putting this together, as it makes an excellent basic example of how FSD would handle such a situation in real life.
Flaw 5: The Follow-Up Video and Interview
Following the community backlash, Mark released a video on X, hoping to resolve the community’s concerns. However, this also backfired. It turned out Mark’s second video was of an entirely different take than the one in the original video - this was at a different speed, angle, and time of initiation.
Mark then followed up with an interview with Philip DeFranco (below), where he said that there were multiple takes and that he used Autopilot because he didn’t know that FSD could be engaged without a destination. He also answered here that Luminar supposedly did not pay him for the video - even with their big showing as the “leader in LiDAR technology” throughout the video.
Putting It All Together
Overall, Mark’s video was rather duplicitous - he recorded multiple takes to get what he needed, prevented Tesla’s software from functioning properly by intervening, and used an outdated feature set that isn’t FSD - like his video is titled.
Upcoming Videos
Several other video creators are already working to replicate what Mark “tried” to test in this video.
To get a complete picture, we need to see unedited takes, even if they’re included at the end of the video. The full vehicle specifications should also be disclosed. Additionally, the test should be conducted using Tesla’s latest hardware and software—specifically, an HW4 vehicle running FSD v13.2.8.
In Mark’s video, Autopilot was engaged just seconds before impact. However, for a proper evaluation, FSD should be activated much earlier, allowing it time to react and, if capable, stop before hitting the wall.
A wave of new videos is likely on the way—stay tuned, and we’ll be sure to cover the best ones.
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