According to a post on X, Elon Musk said that Tesla has yet to unlock the full potential of AI4 – the now-renamed Hardware 4.
HW4 / AI4
AI4 currently runs Hardware 3 in emulation mode, which means it's only running about as fast as Hardware 3 can run. With just basic specs in mind, AI4’s cameras have 4-5x better overall resolution and fidelity than Hardware 3 and should be about 3-5x faster in inference capabilities. That’s a considerable increase over the baseline specs of Hardware 3.
With FSD 12.5, AI4 is running a FSD model that has a 5x increase in parameters, resulting in a smoother driving experience. Recently, Elon Musk noted that AI4 should be able to provide an additional 8x time increase in parameters. While we’re not exactly sure how the parameter metric computes vs the inference capability metric, but if we add them, it’s a 12x increase in capability.
However, Elon’s post implies that this is an 8x increase over the capacity they originally thought to have – nearly 50x faster than Hardware 3. That’s a bold claim, but could entirely be based on software optimization and not having to run Hardware 3 in emulation mode in the future, once AI4 and Hardware 3 begin to diverge.
AI4 Divergence
Divergence is still expected to be a few months away – at least not until early 2025. However, Elon confirmed that the new Supercomputer Cluster, which will run AI4 alongside Nvidia GPUs, is coming online very soon. This means that work on improving FSD with the newly unlocked potential of AI4 is going to start soon – however, it may not necessarily come to customers right away.
FSD on Hardware 3
Currently, most of Tesla’s fleet is still on Hardware 3 – the Model 3 only changed over after the refresh, and the Model Y only changed over in late 2023. Even if AI4 brings drastic improvements, Tesla will still have to focus a lot of energy on optimizing their model so that Hardware 3 vehicles – some of which are less than a year old today, can still run the latest FSD updates.
Musk recently commented on X that Tesla is still optimizing FSD to run on hardware 3. He originally estimated that it would take about 10 days to optimize the code for HW 3, however, that date has come and gone. We’re now on day 15, and HW 3 owners are getting increasingly frustrated about the delay and the worry that HW 3 is reaching its limits.
FSD v12.5.1.3 is currently the latest FSD version available to the public. However, Musk said that this version doesn’t have HW 3 support yet, and it’ll be a new unreleased version that will roll out for HW 3.
Following the successful launch of Robotaxi on Sunday, June 22nd, Tesla has begun moving to the next phase of its Robotaxi rollout. They have finally begun sending out a second, larger wave of invites, expanding the early access program to more members of the Tesla community across the United States.
This has moved them past the initial 20 or so users that were offered access on Sunday. That also means Tesla is on the hunt for something crucial: more real-world data.
More Riders ASAP
The initial launch was a tightly controlled event, with access granted to a small and curated group of influencers. While this approach was ideal for generating initial buzz for the launch and collecting feedback from high-quality testers, it also presented logistical challenges.
With only a handful of authorized riders and vehicles, the demand for rides would inevitably dry up as influencers begin their journeys back home. Without a public release, that would leave Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet idle, unable to gather additional data.
To rapidly improve on Robotaxi’s FSD, Tesla needs its vehicles to be constantly navigating real-world scenarios, encountering edge cases, and logging miles. The second round of invites is needed to keep Robotaxis learning and on the road.
Austin Users Next?
This new wave of invites isn’t an open door for members of the public quite yet. By continuing to send invites to trusted community members, Tesla is executing a slow and deliberate rollout by inviting members who know and love Tesla. This allows them to scale the program gradually, increasing the number of users and the diversity of ride requests without overwhelming the relatively small initial fleet of about 10 cars.
Future phases will likely involve opening access to Tesla owners within Austin, which would open up a regular flow of rides. Once that’s done, Robotaxi will likely open up to the public.
Sign of Confidence
The expansion of the early access program is a sign that Tesla is happy and confident with the rollout so far. While Tesla can gather plenty of data around Austin from Tesla owners using FSD, they also need to continue testing features that are exclusive to the Robotaxi, such as the Robotaxi app, support, and remotely control the vehicles when needed.
We expect a full launch to potentially still be months out, but this methodical expansion will likely see more users gradually gain access to the Robotaxi network in the coming weeks.
Omead Afshar, who was previously Elon Musk’s “Fixer” and the Head of Operations for North America and Europe, has left the company, according to reports from Forbes and Bloomberg.
While some sources have claimed he was fired, others say he voluntarily left, but his exit isn’t exactly an isolated event.
Afshar’s departure is the second high-level exit this month, following Optimus' lead, Milan Kovac. When viewed together, alongside Elon's full-time return to Tesla, these changes may offer some insight into the pressures the Tesla executive team is facing during a transitional period.
Transition from what, you may ask? Well, from the world’s largest EV company to an AI and robotics-first company. This transition has been looming for years, and with Elon’s vision of a future powered by autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots. It’s the path that Tesla is determined to forge, ahead of anyone else, and despite the immense challenges of real-world AI.
Two Competing Narratives
Two primary theories have emerged to explain the timing of Afshar’s exit, and each paints quite a different picture.
The first, supported by the reporting from Forbes, frames him as a casualty of Tesla’s current sales issues. With sales having declined for five consecutive months in Europe and dropping in the US, the second quarter of 2025 has been rough for Tesla. In conjunction with recent factory shutdowns, a lot is happening behind the scenes, with Robotaxi taking the limelight and the missing Affordable Model in the backseat. Afshar’s departure could be the result of a move to show accountability for the performance drop of the core business he managed.
The second narrative is one of “mission accomplished.” Just days before his abrupt exit, Afshar posted a celebratory message on X about the successful launch of the Robotaxi Network.
Absolutely historic day for Tesla.
This has been years of hard work and focus by so many people within the company.
He followed up with a second celebratory-styled message the day after - it was a project he was deeply involved in as the do-it-all executive for Elon. This has led to speculation that his departure was planned, and potentially tied to compensation vesting with the launch of the Robotaxi Network, allowing him to leave on a high note after seeing the kick-off of one of Tesla’s most critical projects. This follows other recent departures of Tesla’s executive team, many of whom have gone to full-time retirement following years of hard work.
The Bigger Picture: What Is Tesla, really?
While both theories are plausible, the truth may be that Afshar’s departure is the symptom of a much larger challenge. Tesla is balancing two very different corporate identities.
On one hand, it's a manufacturing and sales powerhouse, responsible for the world’s best-selling electric vehicles, a business facing intense competition and brand perception challenges that even Elon has acknowledged.
On the other hand, Tesla is the only company shipping real-world AI for consumers, and betting its future on robotics and AI with massive investments in capacity for both future businesses.
The recent executive churn suggests that this balancing act is creating some strain, especially for Tesla’s senior executives. The departure of Milan Kovac signaled pressure on the future side of the business, where progress has been slow but consistent. Now, the exit of Afshar, who ran the “legacy” automotive side of the business, shows there’s pressure there, as the automotive business navigates a period of flattening growth and intense global competition.
So, we ask again - What is Tesla, really? Is it an AI and Robotics company? Kind of, but not really. Is it an EV company? Once again, kind of.
In our eyes, it is no longer just an EV company, but it’s at a critical point where it is transitioning to an AI and robotics company.
Tesla’s messaging to the outside world is similarly conflicted. On the one hand, the launch of the refreshed Model Y, a massive boost for the business, went seemingly unnoticed by Elon, who only posted a single update on the Model Y after its launch. On the other hand, we’ve seen consistent and non-stop posts about Robotaxi, which is likely years away from generating a significant portion of Tesla’s profits.
A Company in Transition
Ultimately, Omead Afshar’s departure is more than a single personnel change; it’s a reflection of Tesla navigating a crucial and challenging transition. The evidence of an abrupt halt, with internal sources reporting his account has been removed from internal company directories, suggests that there’s more to this than meets the eye.
Whether he was fired for declining sales or chose to leave after the successful launch of the Robotaxi Network, the outcome is the same. A key leader, tasked with managing the core business of the present, is gone at the very moment when the company is changing its path towards AI and robotics.
Being both a car company in a tough market and an AI company on the verge of a breakthrough is a monumental challenge, and the path forward is likely to see even more changes.
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