According to a post on X, Elon Musk said that Tesla has yet to unlock the full potential of AI4 – the now-renamed Hardware 4.
HW4 / AI4
AI4 currently runs Hardware 3 in emulation mode, which means it's only running about as fast as Hardware 3 can run. With just basic specs in mind, AI4’s cameras have 4-5x better overall resolution and fidelity than Hardware 3 and should be about 3-5x faster in inference capabilities. That’s a considerable increase over the baseline specs of Hardware 3.
With FSD 12.5, AI4 is running a FSD model that has a 5x increase in parameters, resulting in a smoother driving experience. Recently, Elon Musk noted that AI4 should be able to provide an additional 8x time increase in parameters. While we’re not exactly sure how the parameter metric computes vs the inference capability metric, but if we add them, it’s a 12x increase in capability.
However, Elon’s post implies that this is an 8x increase over the capacity they originally thought to have – nearly 50x faster than Hardware 3. That’s a bold claim, but could entirely be based on software optimization and not having to run Hardware 3 in emulation mode in the future, once AI4 and Hardware 3 begin to diverge.
AI4 Divergence
Divergence is still expected to be a few months away – at least not until early 2025. However, Elon confirmed that the new Supercomputer Cluster, which will run AI4 alongside Nvidia GPUs, is coming online very soon. This means that work on improving FSD with the newly unlocked potential of AI4 is going to start soon – however, it may not necessarily come to customers right away.
FSD on Hardware 3
Currently, most of Tesla’s fleet is still on Hardware 3 – the Model 3 only changed over after the refresh, and the Model Y only changed over in late 2023. Even if AI4 brings drastic improvements, Tesla will still have to focus a lot of energy on optimizing their model so that Hardware 3 vehicles – some of which are less than a year old today, can still run the latest FSD updates.
Musk recently commented on X that Tesla is still optimizing FSD to run on hardware 3. He originally estimated that it would take about 10 days to optimize the code for HW 3, however, that date has come and gone. We’re now on day 15, and HW 3 owners are getting increasingly frustrated about the delay and the worry that HW 3 is reaching its limits.
FSD v12.5.1.3 is currently the latest FSD version available to the public. However, Musk said that this version doesn’t have HW 3 support yet, and it’ll be a new unreleased version that will roll out for HW 3.
With Q1 2025 now behind us, another round of Tesla’s Supercharger Voting has wrapped up. The previous vote took place back in December, and we now get to see which locations came out on top.
Let’s take a look at the Q1 2025 winners of the Supercharger Vote:
North America
🇺🇸 Lake Wales, FL
🇺🇸 Henderson, NV
🇺🇸 Clarksville, TN
🇺🇸 Roswell, NM
🇺🇸 Long Beach, CA
🇺🇸 Decatur, IL
🇺🇸 McAlester, OK
Europe
🇬🇧 Bournemouth, United Kingdom
🇮🇹 Bari, Italy
🇵🇱 Wrocław, Poland
🇨🇿 Hradec Králové, Czech Republic
Asia-Pacific
🇰🇷 Namyangju - South Korea
🇦🇺 Nicholls, Australia
Supercharger Voting Q2 2025
Another quarter means another round of Tesla's Supercharger Voting, giving Tesla owners the chance to influence where new Supercharger sites will be built. Following the Q1 2025 voting round, Tesla is now opening the polls for Q2 2025.
How to Vote
To participate in the Q2 2025 Supercharger Voting, visit the Tesla Supercharger Voting page and sign in to your Tesla account. You can vote for up to five different locations, with a limit of one vote per location, every three months. The most popular Superchargers are displayed on the leaderboard, and you can also suggest new locations for future voting cycles.
We’ve known for a while now that Tesla has been using a custom build of FSD to allow its newly produced vehicles at Giga Texas and Fremont to autonomously navigate themselves from the production line to the outbound delivery lot.
While we knew they were using a custom build of what was likely FSD Unsupervised, thanks to a recent post from Tesla AI on X, this has now been confirmed. Tesla has also confirmed it has accrued over 50,000 driverless miles, totalled from vehicles autonomously driving themselves to delivery lots.
Giga Texas production now uses FSD Unsupervised to deliver cars from end of line to the outbound logistics lot.
Over 50,000 driverless miles have been accrued between California and Texas factories so far pic.twitter.com/79zKY0U6Ox
For most of Tesla’s vehicles - that’s a 1.4-mile trip that is shared with pedestrians, cars, trucks, and construction equipment. You can see in the video that the Teslas are navigating public roadways and encountering real human drivers.
That’s great news, especially since many were wondering whether Tesla would secure the necessary approvals in time to launch their Robotaxi network in June.
Increased Confidence
Following Tesla’s post to X, Musk followed up by saying that when Tesla launches FSD Unsupervised soon, it will be the first time there will be a generalized, pure AI solution to autonomy. Tesla and several executives continue to post more content about autonomy and the Robotaxi network, leading us to believe they’re feeling confident in the June launch.
Model Ys autonomously navigate a 1.4 mile trip on a road shared with pedestrians, cars, semi trucks, construction equipment & more pic.twitter.com/iPx2fs78v2
Back when Tesla initially announced the autonomous travel of its vehicles from production to loading lots, they mentioned that the Cybertruck was the only vehicle at Giga Texas not receiving that same treatment.
Now, that’s changed - Cybertruck is now also navigating through the Cybertunnel to make its way from the factory directly to the loading docks, all on Unsupervised FSD. And that’s making us even more excited, especially because Tesla was supposed to launch an FSD Update for the Cybertruck a little while ago - but it hasn’t made it to production yet. This update is set to bring Start FSD from Park, as well as Actually Smart Summon - bringing the Cybertruck to feature parity with Tesla’s other AI4 vehicles.
Cybertrucks autonomously navigate a 0.6 mile route traversing beneath one of America's fastest highways, emerging through a steep 17% grade to reach their destination pic.twitter.com/3ZMYCRPhIj
Now that Tesla is confidently using a build of Unsupervised FSD to navigate the tight confines of the tunnel and park, we’re pretty sure that Tesla will likely launch the expected FSD update in the near future.
FSD Update Soon?
It’s been a while since any FSD hardware variant has received an FSD update. It appears that Tesla has been focused on Unsupervised FSD and launching FSD outside of North America.
It seems like we may get a new FSD update soon, and we don’t believe it’ll be just for the Cybertruck. Those who have the opportunity to sign up for Tesla’s new Early Access program will likely be some of the first recipients to receive the FSD update, so stay tuned.
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