Tesla Announcements: New Date for Robotaxi, FSD in Europe & China, Giga Mexico on Hold and More

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Yesterday Tesla held their Q2 2024 Earnings Call. Let’s take a deeper look at some of what was said.

Affordable Tesla

Tesla’s affordable model – previously dubbed the Model 2 by many, is supposed to be revealed in the first half of 2025. Tesla has been targeting a price point of about $25,000 USD for this vehicle, and many are excited to see an affordable EV from Tesla that doesn’t require the Federal EV Rebate to come down below $30,000.

The Model 2 is supposed to be built off the same production lines as Tesla’s other mass-manufactured vehicles — the Model 3 and the Model Y. Tesla has reserved their unique unboxed process testing for the upcoming Robotaxi instead.

New Date for Robotaxi Event

Speaking of the Robotaxi, Elon Musk confirmed in the earnings call that the Robotaxi event will be taking place on 10/10. In line with what we previously reported,  this delay was due to some important design changes. In addition, the extra time allows Tesla to “show off a few other things,” according to Musk.

We’re quite excited to see what these other things are – they could be previews of the affordable Tesla model, the Cybervan or a demo of the Robotaxi.

Unsupervised FSD Goal

In terms of FSD, Musk also mentioned that the hope is for Unsupervised FSD to be rolled out sometime between the end of 2024 and the end of 2025. That’s a pretty big time gap, and while we’re used to expecting the usual two weeks, Musk came clean and said he’s been overly confident in the past.

Instead, this new estimate is based on the current trend of miles per intervention, which has been growing at a steady clip since FSD v12 rolled out and has become more refined.

Expansion of FSD

But that’s not all. Tesla also intends to introduce FSD v12.5 or FSD v12.6 to Europe, China, and other countries by the end of this year, which is rapidly approaching. That’s a major piece of news for many countries that have limited access to Full Self Driving or Autopilot. Tesla previously worked hard to get regulatory approval for FSD in Europe and China and just launched some Vision-based features outside of North America.

Giga Mexico on Hold

Giga Mexico is now on hold, along with Tesla’s plans to produce their next-generation vehicle there. Instead, Tesla will be producing these vehicles at Giga Texas. This hold comes after US Presidential Candidate Donald Trump has said that if he’s elected, he will enforce heavy tariffs on vehicles that are produced in Mexico and imported to the United States.

Optimus Robot Timeline

Optimus has seen some timeline solidification between the Shareholder Meeting and this Earnings Call. While there are a few test units on the factory floors today, Tesla intends to begin limited production at Giga Texas for a V1 unit, to be used internally. This production run will be starting in early 2025.

They expect to work out any initial kinks and bugs, and then begin work on Optimus V2, which should be available for purchase to outside organizations by early 2026.

Megapack

Tesla Energy has seen the greatest growth, with production, revenue, and sales all being greater than in Q1 2024. In fact, Tesla’s megapack factory in Lathrop is continuing to expand and scale production, all while Mega Shanghai is also breaking ground. Overall, deployments of static energy storage doubled in Q2 from Q1, which already saw a doubling since last year.

Tesla is banking quite a bit on its energy business, and working to expand its supply chains, while also selling Megapacks to energy utilities around the world. And it's more than energy utilities interested – Megapack is being seen as an energy backup source for AI compute – data centers suck power extremely fast, and Megapack can help provide the juice needed.

There’s more on that front too – Tesla and energy utilities are looking to buffer power plants with Megapacks – which means powerplants can run at optimal capacity while Megapack handles the ebbs and flows. There could be a 2-3x increase in power plant efficiency, and this could also help with power plant base loading.

Earnings Call Video

So that’s it for all the big key points from the Earnings Call. If you want to know more about the call, you can review our recap, which includes some of the financial data, as well as lots of other information. You can also see the investor slide deck, or watch the earnings call below.

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Tesla Releases FSD V12.6.1 for Model 3 & Model Y

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Last night, Tesla released software update 2024.45.25.15, which includes FSD V12.6.1. This update adds support for all HW3 vehicles, including the Model 3 and Model Y. We’re excited to see the continued support for HW3 owners. 

FSD V12.6.1

V12.6.1 is now going wide, according to Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s VP of AI. This update is going to the Model 3 and Model Y for the first time - as only the Model S and Model X were included in FSD V12.6. 

V12.6 is a big step forward for HW3 - it includes End-to-End on Highway, Improved City Streets Behavior, and Smoother and More Accurate Tracking - all contributing towards a better, smoother, and more comfortable build of FSD. You can read our comparison between FSD V12.6 and V13.2.2 here. 

In short, FSD V12.6 performs considerably closer to V13 than V12.5.4.2 - which is a massive improvement. It performs as well as the Cybertruck version of FSD V13, which is still missing a few features when compared to other HW4 vehicles, but it’s a great sign for HW3. A lot of the improvements can be pointed to in the improvements to lane selection and decision-making - the vehicle tends to hesitate far less on V12.6, meaning the ride is a lot smoother. Many early V12.6 testers mentioned that it felt more like V13-mini than anything else.

Legacy Model S & X

We haven’t seen this update hit any legacy Model S and Model X vehicles just yet. We’re not sure whether Ashok’s statement of “generally” applies here - but it should. If you do get the update, please let us know.

Legacy Model S and Model X vehicles are still on an older FSD build and potentially won’t see another FSD update for a little while longer. While they do have the same FSD hardware as other vehicles, there are enough hardware differences that require a build specifically for these vehicles.

Release Date

FSD V12.6.1 is going out now to the redesigned Model S and X with HW3 and all Model 3 and Model Y vehicles with HW3. The initial wave went out last night, and we expect to see more later today or tomorrow. If this release ends up going “wide,” we should see much larger waves go out next week.

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Tesla Issues Physical & OTA Recall for Hardware 4 Computer

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Tesla has issued a recall for some vehicles due to issues linked to a revision of the Hardware 4 (HW4) computer that was introduced this past November. This recall affects all vehicles with the revised hardware except for the Cybertruck, as it uses a slightly modified version of the HW4 system.

Many vehicle owners have reported a complete failure of their Autopilot computer, which not only leaves the vehicle without FSD and Autopilot but also disables many of the active safety features that make a Tesla what it is.

Let’s take a look at this recall - because the recall is partially physical and partially a software recall.

HW4 Failure

Tesla has identified the failure and flagged it to the U.S. NHTSA (but not Transport Canada or Euro NCAP at the time of publishing) as a recall.

Tesla mentions that the vehicle’s FSD computer circuit board may short circuit, resulting in the loss of the rearview camera image. The recall itself is focused on the rearview camera - as not having a functional rearview camera breaks a Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard. However, it does impact more than just the rearview camera.

As previously mentioned, users have experienced the full loss of Autopilot and FSD on these vehicles, as well as reduced traction control and removal of safety features such as automatic emergency braking, collision avoidance assist, and forward collision warnings. 

While the vehicle remains driveable, it is not necessarily a good idea to drive the vehicle with many of these features, especially with the reduced traction control noted by many people. We’ve already noted that while Tesla has been sending tow trucks to pick up some vehicles, it is also prompting owners to drive the vehicle to their service center in some cases.

Remedy

Unlike most of Tesla’s recalls, this one isn’t entirely an OTA recall, owing to the fact that people have already experienced circuit board shorts and are already waiting for replacements.

The software portion of the recall has already been mostly completed for any vehicles with Tesla software update 2024.45.25.3 or greater. However, a significant portion of the tracked fleet remains on update 2024.44.25.2 (approximately 20%), so we recommend updating your HW4 vehicle whenever you receive the notification.

On the hardware side, Tesla is immediately identifying and replacing hardware that has had circuit board failure. Tesla is also reaching out to customers who have expressed intermittent issues with Autopilot features, active safety features, or vehicle cameras that don't display correctly. If you have experienced any of these issues in a late 2024 vehicle, we recommend submitting a service ticket with Tesla to ensure that your vehicle isn’t affected by this recall.

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