The refresh, or Highland Model 3 began with engineering test vehicles being spotted near Giga Texas and the Fremont factory in California. Similarly, this covered-up Model Y was spotted near Pasadena, California.
Given the timelines we saw for the new Model 3, this prototype for the Model Y appears to be following a trajectory for an early to mid-2025 launch. Engineering test vehicles for the new Model 3 were first spotted in North America about 6-8 months prior to its introduction to China. After its initial release in Chinese, the vehicle was later released in North America just a few months later.
If timelines for Project Juniper are similar to what we saw for the Model 3, we should expect to see more engineering test vehicles on the road in North America soon.
The vehicle is expected to be released in China first, with a North American and European arrival following sometime after. While the Performance variant of the new Model 3 didn’t launch until April of 2024, several months after the Long Range version was available in North America, it’s not clear whether Tesla will follow a similar strategy and launch the Long Range version of the new Model Y before the Performance model.
Front Bumper Camera
There was a lot of speculation about the refreshed Model 3 coming with a front bumper camera, but so far the Cybertruck is the only Tesla vehicle that includes a bumper camera and a camera washer (video). While updated versions of the Model S and Model X are also expected to add the lower-bumper camera, so also have yet to go on sale as well.
It’s not clear why Tesla didn’t launch the new camera with the new Model 3 since the bumper was already being redesigned and the factories were being retooled. However, according to the spy shot of the updated Model Y, it looks like it could be Tesla’s second vehicle to include the bumper camera. TeslaNewswire shared a photo of the Model Y with the brightness increased which appears to reveal the new front bumper camera. The location is exactly where you’d expect, very similar to the Cybertruck and similar to early shots of the prototype Model 3 that also contained the bumper camera.
It’s not clear whether this additional camera will make it into the production version, but it’s at least a sign that Tesla is considering adding this camera to another model.
Musk Asks People to Stop
Elon Musk replied to Sawyer Merritt on X (Twitter), not only reiterating that the refreshed Model Y will not be released this year. He also asked people to stop hinting that it will be since it damages Tesla’s sales of the current vehicle.
Musk reiterates that the new Model Y will not launch in 2024
kylaschwaberow/X
Potential Upgrades
While the release of the new Model Y may be about a year out in North America – there is a chance that the updated Model Y Juniper could show up with Hardware 5 sensors and computers. Elon Musk estimated that HW5, now dubbed AI5 was about 12-18 months away from production. The new Model Y could be the vehicle that debuts the new FSD package.
Of course, all of the rest of the upgrades that came with the updated Model 3 will all likely come to the Model Y – a new front and rear fascia, new adaptive headlights, increased range, ambient lighting, new colors, new speakers, and better dynamics in general. Package all of that up with what was already the best-selling car in 2023, and we’ve got a hit on our hands.
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Tesla’s Cybertruck has officially earned a 5-Star Safety Rating from the NHTSA—an impressive achievement given the vehicle’s design. The achievement demonstrates Tesla’s engineering prowess. As one engineer points out, it wasn’t an easy feat.
Interestingly, the NHTSA only recently disclosed the results, despite the crash tests being completed a while ago. According to Lars Moravy, Tesla’s VP of Vehicle Engineering, the team had been aware of the 5-star rating for quite some time. While the reason for the delay remains unclear, now that the results are public, Tesla’s engineers can finally share how they achieved the rating.
Crumple Zones
Wes Morril, the Cybertruck’s Lead Engineer, wrote about the crash test video on X recently, addressing the claims that the Cybertruck doesn’t have a crumple zone. He also posted a side-by-side video (below) of the engineering analysis and the crash test itself.
Engineered Crash Safety
There’s a lot of engineering precision at play when a Cybertruck is involved in a crash. Unlike traditional crash structures that rely on crash cans and collapse points, the Cybertruck’s front gigacasting is designed to absorb and redirect impact forces in a highly controlled manner.
It all starts with the bumper beam, which crushes within the first few milliseconds of a high-speed impact. At the same time, the vehicle’s sensors rapidly analyze the crash dynamics and determine the optimal deployment of safety restraints, including airbags and seat belt pre-tensioners. These split-second actions are crucial in keeping occupants safe.
As the crash progresses, the vehicle’s structure deforms in a carefully engineered sequence. The drive unit cradle bends, directing the solid drive unit downward and out of the way, allowing the gigacasting to begin absorbing impact forces.
The casting crushes cell by cell, methodically dissipating energy in a controlled manner. This gradual deceleration reduces the g-forces transferred to occupants, making the crash much less severe. As the gigacast begins crushing, the safety restraints are deployed.
As Wes points out in his post - you can see how accurate the virtual analysis and modeling were. The video shows the simulated crash side by side with the real-life crash test and they’re almost identical. All that virtual testing helps provide feedback into the loop to design a better and safer system - one that is uniquely different than any other vehicle on the road.
All the armchair experts claimed the Cybertruck has no crumple zone and I get it, the proportions seem impossible. It was a tough one and there is a lot of engineering that went into it. Let me break it down for you:
Tesla has pioneered the use of single-piece castings for the front and rear sections of their vehicles, thanks to its innovative Gigapress process. Many automakers are now following suit, as this approach allows the crash structure to be integrated directly into the casting.
This makes the castings not only safer but also easier to manufacture in a single step, reducing costs and improving repairability. For example, replacing the entire rear frame of a Cybertruck is estimated to cost under $10,000 USD, with most of the expense coming from labor, according to estimates shared on X after high-speed rear collisions.
These insights come from Sandy Munro’s interview (posted below) with Lars Moravy, Tesla’s VP of Vehicle Engineering, highlighting how these advancements contribute to the improvements in Tesla’s latest vehicles, including the New Model Y.
However, with the new Model Y, Tesla has decided to go a different route and eliminated the front gigacast.
No Front Casting
Tesla’s factories aren’t equipped to produce both front and rear castings for the Model Y. Only Giga Texas and Giga Berlin used structural battery packs, but these were quickly phased out due to the underwhelming performance of the first-generation 4680 battery.
Tesla has gone back to building a common body across the globe, increasing part interchangeability and reducing supply chain complexity across the four factories that produce the Model Y. They’ve instead improved and reduced the number of unique parts up front to help simplify assembly and repair.
There is still potential for Tesla to switch back to using a front and rear casting - especially with their innovative unboxed assembly method. However, that will also require Tesla to begin using a structural battery pack again, which could potentially happen in the future with new battery technology.
Rear Casting Improvements
The rear casting has been completely redesigned, shedding 7 kg (15.4 lbs) and cutting machining time in half. Originally weighing around 67 kg (147 lbs), the new casting is now approximately 60 kg (132 lbs).
This 15% weight reduction improves both vehicle dynamics and range while also increasing the rear structure’s stiffness, reducing body flex during maneuvers.
Tesla leveraged its in-house fluid dynamics software to optimize the design, resulting in castings that resemble organic structures in some areas and flowing river patterns in others. Additionally, manufacturing efficiency has dramatically improved—the casting process, which originally took 180 seconds per part, has been reduced to just 75 seconds, a nearly 60% time reduction per unit.
Advancements in die-casting machines and cooling systems have allowed @Tesla to dramatically reduce cycle times and improve dimensional stability. pic.twitter.com/WB5ji67rvV
Tesla’s new casting method incorporates conformal cooling, which cools the die directly within the gigapress. Tesla has been refining the die-casting machines and collaborating with manufacturers to improve the gigapress process.
In 2023, Tesla patented a thermal control unit for the casting process. This system uses real-time temperature analysis and precise mixing of metal streams to optimize casting quality. SETI Park, which covers Tesla’s manufacturing patents on X, offers a great series for those interested in learning more.
The new system allows Tesla to control the flow of cooling liquid, precisely directing water to different parts of the die, cooling them at varying rates. This enables faster material flow and quicker cooling, improving both dimensional stability and the speed of removing the part from the press for the next stage.
With these new process improvements, Tesla now rolls out a new Model Y at Giga Berlin, Giga Texas, and Fremont every 43 seconds—an astounding achievement in auto manufacturing. Meanwhile, Giga Shanghai operates two Model Y lines, delivering a completed vehicle every 35 seconds.
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