Tesla Likely to Launch Robotaxi Service in Next 5 Years, May Account for 90% of Future Profit

Ark Invest's prediction for Tesla in 2029

ARK Invest

Tesla is on the verge of its Robotaxi announcement event on 8/8, and major investors like Ark Invest are examining and refreshing their bull case scenarios.

Robotaxi as a Focus

Ark Invest sees Robotaxi as a focus of Tesla’s ongoing business and sees Tesla’s autonomous ride-hailing revenue to net nearly $1 trillion in 2029. In comparison, they estimate Tesla’s vehicle sales to account for $0.4 trillion in revenue. With this bull case, Ark Invest also sees Tesla’s share price soaring to $3,100 by 2029. Ark Invest’s bear case sees the share price moving to $2,000 and robotaxi netting $0.63 billion in revenue.

Ark Invest gives Tesla a 58% chance of launching its robotaxi service in 2025, and a 38% chance in 2026. It’s clear that Tesla’s future lies in operating a fleet of autonomous vehicles and the question is just when it will happen. Given FSD’s massive improvements between FSD V11 and FSD V12, there is a possibility of Tesla meeting these estimates, although a lot depends on how fast improvements will continue to come. While FSD V12 is impressive, it’s still a long way from a true autonomous vehicle.

Rate of Improvement

Miles driven by Tesla FSD versus autonomous competitors

ARK Invest

Ark’s case is focused on the fact that FSD’s rapid improvement will continue, and a lot of that may be determined with the next few releases, including FSD 12.4.1, v12.5, and v12.6. When comparing Tesla to autonomous vehicles, Tesla has a drastic lead in miles driven, in fact, it’s so large that you can barely even see Tesla’s competitors. Tesla is at 1.3 billion miles driven with FSD, while the closest competitors are just reaching 15 million autonomous miles driven. While there’s a drastic difference in capabilities between Tesla’s FSD and autonomous vehicles such as Google’s Waymo, Tesla has the ability to gather data 86 times quicker.

Training data is key to building autonomous vehicles, and Tesla is currently the king of vehicle-related data.

Services Company

We previously wrote about whether Tesla’s future will be as a car company or a services company – and major investors such as Ark Invest and Morgan Stanley see Tesla’s AI services as a major driver of business in the future, and the focus of future revenue and profits.

Robotaxi, as both a service and as a physical product, has the opportunity to shake up markets in a unique way, providing quick, clean, and safe transportation between local destinations in urban areas, which could quickly outcompete traditional services like taxis, and tech competitors like Uber or Lyft. The market for robotaxi is untapped and massive, but Tesla isn’t the only one chasing the goal.

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Tesla’s New Signal Viewer Panel in Service Mode+ Allows You to View Real-Time Data

@scotsrule08 on X

Tesla’s latest software update, version 2025.2, brings new features to Service Mode, continuing the trend of improving in-vehicle diagnostics.

Currently, this feature is only available for vehicles with AMD Ryzen infotainment systems and requires Service Mode+, which is a subscription service aimed at technicians. Intel-powered vehicles aren’t supported yet, but we expect this feature to roll out to them as well unless hardware limitations prevent it.

Thanks to Spencer for providing an image of the panel in action.

Signal Viewer Panel

While update 2025.2.6 adds four service mode improvements, including updates to brake burnishing, charge port calibration, and noise recording panel improvements. In this article, we’ll focus on the new signal viewer panel.

This new panel offers a live data feed from selectable vehicle sensors. You select the signals you’re interested in and it’ll plot the signal on a graph. In addition to allowing you to view real-time signal data, it also allows you to record them.

The signals are searchable and can be easily added or removed from the panel. You can track up to 10 sensors, and the UI allows three of them to be viewable at once.

However, this is Service Mode and it’s more than just pretty looks. You can really dig down into these charts. You can pan them left and right through time, and tapping a specific point shows the exact value of that signal. The panel also supports pinch-to-zoom, enabling you to adjust the time scale across all panels simultaneously.

This feature is exclusive to Service Mode+, which requires a subscription to Tesla’s ToolBox3 software and a connection to a computer. It’s designed to help technicians diagnose issues related to signal quality, noise in the vehicle’s electrical systems, and signal variance in components during driving.

We’re excited to see Tesla’s continued focus on repairability, especially with additions like the Cybertruck’s Interactive Wiring Diagram and the launch of the Tesla Online Parts Catalog, which lets customers purchase parts directly.

Plus, with the reduced cost of ToolBox 3 subscriptions, even DIY enthusiasts now have access to tools that make Tesla repairs more accessible.

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Tesla Introduces New Model Y Variants in Europe; Ends Launch Series

Not a Tesla App

Tesla has updated its Model Y lineup in Europe, introducing new standard configurations while discontinuing the limited-edition Launch Series. With the new variants now available, European customers will have more choices and cheaper options to pick from.

The Launch Series and some of its exclusive features will no longer be offered—except in the UK, where it remains available alongside the new lineup.

New Models Introduced

Tesla’s new Model Y lineup in Europe includes three main variants. The prices vary slightly from country to country.

• Rear-Wheel Drive (RWD): Priced at €44,990, this model is the most affordable new Model Y, but it also has the shortest range and is missing a few features available on other trim levels.

• Long Range Rear-Wheel Drive (LR RWD): Available for €49,990, this version is essentially the same as the RWD model, but with a larger battery. It has seen a €1,000 price increase compared to the outgoing Long Range RWD model.

• Long Range All-Wheel Drive (LR AWD): At €52,990, this model has seen a price drop of €2,000, making it a better deal than the previous LR AWD Model Y. This is also the only new Model Y to come with most of the same features as the Launch Series, including additional speakers, a subwoofer, premium materials inside the cabin and improved acceleration. Acceleration boost should also become available for this model, letting it match the performance of the Launch Series.

All Model Y variants come with all the improvements that we’ve discussed about the new Model Y, including the new front and rear light bars, improved aerodynamics, ventilated seats, improved heat and sound isolation, and the 8-inch rear touchscreen. Some exclusive options, like the Midnight Cherry Red paint, appear to no longer be available. However, Tesla has already said that they’ll be introducing new paint options for the Model Y in North America.

Compare Model Y Variants

Here’s how the various Model Y variants compare to each other:

Launch Series Ends

Not a Tesla App

The Launch Series, which debuted just weeks ago in Europe, has now been phased out. This limited-edition model was priced at €60,990 and included a suite of premium features comparable to a bundle deal you may find with other products. It came equipped with Full Self-Driving (FSD), Acceleration Boost, and exclusive badging on the rear liftgate, door sill plates, and puddle lights.

While the Launch Series is no longer available for new orders in most European countries, customers can still get a similar vehicle by opting for the Long Range AWD model and manually adding premium features like FSD. Acceleration Boost, which was standard in the Launch Series, is expected to become available for purchase once these vehicles are delivered or soon afterward. However, some exclusive elements, such as badging and trim details, will remain unique to the discontinued edition.

For now, the UK remains an exception, still offering the Launch Series alongside the newly introduced models.

Performance Model Still to Come

With Tesla now introducing the expected variants of the refreshed Model Y, one notable absence is the Performance model. While the Launch Series was fast due to the Acceleration Boost addon, there’s no doubt the Performance version will be in a league of its own.

What we saw Tesla do with the 2024+ Model 3 Performance variant was more than just using binned motors. The vehicle featured unique bumpers, a spoiler, an improved suspension, sport seats, Track Mode V3 and other features that made the vehicle stand out compared to the Model 3 AWD.

The Performance version of the new Model Y is expected to become available later this year, however, expect it to carry a $5-$8k premium over the AWD model.

Other Regions to Follow

As Europe phases out the Launch Series, other regions are expected to see similar changes. With the other models now revealed, owners in other regions have a better idea of whether they should buy the Launch Series or wait for the additional models to arrive.

Tesla naturally adjusts its offerings based on market demand, and if sales of the Launch Series remain strong in other parts of the world, Tesla will likely wait it out a little longer before offering the other models.

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