Tesla is on the verge of its Robotaxi announcement event on 8/8, and major investors like Ark Invest are examining and refreshing their bull case scenarios.
Robotaxi as a Focus
Ark Invest sees Robotaxi as a focus of Tesla’s ongoing business and sees Tesla’s autonomous ride-hailing revenue to net nearly $1 trillion in 2029. In comparison, they estimate Tesla’s vehicle sales to account for $0.4 trillion in revenue. With this bull case, Ark Invest also sees Tesla’s share price soaring to $3,100 by 2029. Ark Invest’s bear case sees the share price moving to $2,000 and robotaxi netting $0.63 billion in revenue.
Ark Invest gives Tesla a 58% chance of launching its robotaxi service in 2025, and a 38% chance in 2026. It’s clear that Tesla’s future lies in operating a fleet of autonomous vehicles and the question is just when it will happen. Given FSD’s massive improvements between FSD V11 and FSD V12, there is a possibility of Tesla meeting these estimates, although a lot depends on how fast improvements will continue to come. While FSD V12 is impressive, it’s still a long way from a true autonomous vehicle.
Rate of Improvement
Miles driven by Tesla FSD versus autonomous competitors
ARK Invest
Ark’s case is focused on the fact that FSD’s rapid improvement will continue, and a lot of that may be determined with the next few releases, including FSD 12.4.1, v12.5, and v12.6. When comparing Tesla to autonomous vehicles, Tesla has a drastic lead in miles driven, in fact, it’s so large that you can barely even see Tesla’s competitors. Tesla is at 1.3 billion miles driven with FSD, while the closest competitors are just reaching 15 million autonomous miles driven. While there’s a drastic difference in capabilities between Tesla’s FSD and autonomous vehicles such as Google’s Waymo, Tesla has the ability to gather data 86 times quicker.
Training data is key to building autonomous vehicles, and Tesla is currently the king of vehicle-related data.
Services Company
We previously wrote about whether Tesla’s future will be as a car company or a services company – and major investors such as Ark Invest and Morgan Stanley see Tesla’s AI services as a major driver of business in the future, and the focus of future revenue and profits.
Robotaxi, as both a service and as a physical product, has the opportunity to shake up markets in a unique way, providing quick, clean, and safe transportation between local destinations in urban areas, which could quickly outcompete traditional services like taxis, and tech competitors like Uber or Lyft. The market for robotaxi is untapped and massive, but Tesla isn’t the only one chasing the goal.
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Tesla is holding its 2025 Q1 earnings call today at 2:30 pm PT / 5:30 pm ET / 9:30 pm UTC. The earnings call will be followed by a Q&A session with Tesla executives, including Elon Musk.
We expect the focus to be on Tesla sales for the quarter, FSD Unsupservised and the Robotaxi network. Tesla may also discuss its upcoming, more affordable model, Optimus, and other products.
Listen Live
The event will be live-streamed on Tesla’s site. It is also expected to be streamed on X and YouTube like it has been in the past. Tesla has changed this from an Earnings Call to a Company Update, but it’s unclear whether the phrase change holds any significance in what will be shared.
We will provide links here when the live stream becomes available later today. So check back at the time indicated below to listen to the event live.
Start Time
Tesla's live stream starts at 2:30 pm PT, which is the following times around the world:
2:30 pm Pacific Time
5:30 pm Eastern Time
10:30 pm UTC
10:30 pm - London, England
11:30 pm - Berlin, Germany
9:30 am (April 23rd) - Sydney, Australia
Q&A Questions
The questions asked during the Q&A portion of the call come directly from investors. These are currently the top-voted questions, so we’ll likely see answers to several of these questions:
What are the highest risk items on the critical path to robotaxi launch and scaling?
When will FSD unsupervised be available for personal use on personally-owned cars?
Is Tesla still on track for releasing “more affordable models” this year? Or will you be focusing on simplified versions to enhance affordability, similar to the RWD Cybertruck?
Does Tesla see robotaxi as a winner-take-most market, and as you approach the Austin launch, how do you expect to compare against Waymo’s offering, especially regarding pricing, geofencing and regulatory flexibility?
Can you please provide an update on the unboxed method and how that is progressing?
How is Tesla positioning itself to flexibly adapt to global economic risks in the form of tariffs, political biases, etc.?
Does Tesla still have a battery supply constraint (noted on Q4 ER call) and how does this change w/tariffs?
Did Tesla experience any meaningful changes in order inflow rate in Q1 relating to all of the rumors of “brand damage”?
Regarding the Tesla Optimus pilot line, could you confirm if it is currently operational? If so, what is the current production rate of Optimus bots per week? Additionally, how might the recent tariffs impact the scalability of this production line moving forward?
Robotaxi still on track for this year?’
Look Back at 2025 Q1 Numbers
Most of Tesla’s Q1 deliveries, 323,800 units, were unsurprisingly for the Model 3 and Model Y, while the “Other Models” category (including the Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X) accounted for 12,881 deliveries.
Comparing these numbers to Q1 2024, the Model 3/Y is down about 13%, while the Model S/X and Cybertruck are down about 24%.
In terms of production, Tesla built 345,454 Model 3/Y vehicles and 17,161 from its “Other Models” line. The company attributed the production drop to the Model Y changeover but stated that the ramp is “going well.” However, deliveries and production were both down year over year.
Q1 2025
Q1 2024
Q4 2024
Model 3/Y Deliveries
323,800
369,783
471,930
Model 3/Y Production
345,454
412,376
436,718
Other Models Deliveries
12,881
17,027
23,640
Other Models Production
17,161
20,995
22,727
Total Deliveries
336,681
386,810
495,570
Total Production
362,615
433,371
459,445
Although Tesla doesn’t officially break down its numbers by region, Troy Teslike, who closely monitors Tesla's delivery and production numbers has provided estimates that show Tesla’s deliveries across regions. Tesla delivered the most vehicles in China this past quarter, so it’ll be interesting to see if this trend continues.
Tesla’s Giga Texas factory usually gives us the first site of Tesla’s upcoming products. We first saw the Cybertruck and Model Y castings here. With Giga Texas being one of Tesla’s largest factories, it’s logical that most products would originate here.
Tesla has also stated that it intends to manufacture the Cybercab, Semi, the next-generation vehicle, and Optimus at Giga Texas over the coming years. The affordable vehicle and Cybercab were originally intended to be manufactured at Giga Mexico, but the plans for that facility were waylaid by changes in economic policy.
Robotaxi Castings
These new castings were spotted by Joe Tegtmeyer, who regularly does drone flights of Giga Texas. Joe pointed out that these castings don’t look like the usual Model Y or Cybertruck castings usually seen outside Giga Texas.
With an eagle eye, @minusYCore on X also spotted some interesting text on the frames holding the castings up. In particular, the castings say “RTTX050” and “W68-RSF AS-CAST”. These could be interpreted as ‘Robotaxi Texas’ and ‘Rear SubFrame,’ as Tesla marks Cybertruck castings as “CTTX.” The as-cast portion indicates that these particular castings haven’t been trimmed yet, according to the X user.
The castings laid out.
@JoeTegtmeyer
The size and shape of these castings—combined with rumors that Tesla’s more affordable vehicle has been delayed—suggest that these castings are intended for the Cybercab.
These castings are much flatter and appear to be a different size than the castings found throughout Giga Texas, indicating that they are intended for an entirely different product.
It’s possible that these are the first castings used by Tesla to test their unboxed assembly process, which the Cybercab is expected to rely on. If you take a closer look at the video below, you’ll note that these new castings look very similar to the ones in the unboxed assembly video.
Interestingly, Tesla did say that they don’t intend to have the Cybercab available for customers before late 2026 or early 2027, but we’ll likely hear updated timelines as Tesla’s Q1 2025 Earnings Call tomorrow.
A more vertical look at the castings.
@JoeTegtmeyer
New Giga Presses
To top it all off, new parts for a Giga Press - the machine Tesla uses to make these castings - were also sighted in Texas. These machines are few and far between, and each one is highly specialized for the particular vehicle it produces. Seeing new parts coming in usually indicates that a new assembly line is under construction, or that changes are being made to an existing line to either expand it or update it.
There’s a lot happening and we will hopefully know more tomorrow evening.
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