Tesla is on the verge of its Robotaxi announcement event on 8/8, and major investors like Ark Invest are examining and refreshing their bull case scenarios.
Robotaxi as a Focus
Ark Invest sees Robotaxi as a focus of Tesla’s ongoing business and sees Tesla’s autonomous ride-hailing revenue to net nearly $1 trillion in 2029. In comparison, they estimate Tesla’s vehicle sales to account for $0.4 trillion in revenue. With this bull case, Ark Invest also sees Tesla’s share price soaring to $3,100 by 2029. Ark Invest’s bear case sees the share price moving to $2,000 and robotaxi netting $0.63 billion in revenue.
Ark Invest gives Tesla a 58% chance of launching its robotaxi service in 2025, and a 38% chance in 2026. It’s clear that Tesla’s future lies in operating a fleet of autonomous vehicles and the question is just when it will happen. Given FSD’s massive improvements between FSD V11 and FSD V12, there is a possibility of Tesla meeting these estimates, although a lot depends on how fast improvements will continue to come. While FSD V12 is impressive, it’s still a long way from a true autonomous vehicle.
Rate of Improvement
Miles driven by Tesla FSD versus autonomous competitors
ARK Invest
Ark’s case is focused on the fact that FSD’s rapid improvement will continue, and a lot of that may be determined with the next few releases, including FSD 12.4.1, v12.5, and v12.6. When comparing Tesla to autonomous vehicles, Tesla has a drastic lead in miles driven, in fact, it’s so large that you can barely even see Tesla’s competitors. Tesla is at 1.3 billion miles driven with FSD, while the closest competitors are just reaching 15 million autonomous miles driven. While there’s a drastic difference in capabilities between Tesla’s FSD and autonomous vehicles such as Google’s Waymo, Tesla has the ability to gather data 86 times quicker.
Training data is key to building autonomous vehicles, and Tesla is currently the king of vehicle-related data.
Services Company
We previously wrote about whether Tesla’s future will be as a car company or a services company – and major investors such as Ark Invest and Morgan Stanley see Tesla’s AI services as a major driver of business in the future, and the focus of future revenue and profits.
Robotaxi, as both a service and as a physical product, has the opportunity to shake up markets in a unique way, providing quick, clean, and safe transportation between local destinations in urban areas, which could quickly outcompete traditional services like taxis, and tech competitors like Uber or Lyft. The market for robotaxi is untapped and massive, but Tesla isn’t the only one chasing the goal.
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Tesla recently showed off Giga Small Haus, an interesting new display project hosted at Giga Berlin. The small new house is located just outside the main entrance of Tesla’s Giga Berlin factory, with a Quicksilver Model Y parked inside.
Giga Small Haus is powered only by solar and Powerwall 3 - disconnected from the local grid and from Giga Berlin itself. It serves as a live demonstration of Tesla Solar and Tesla’s Powerwall battery backup.
Giga Small Haus
The centerpiece of the display is a Model Y in Quicksilver - a beautiful pick for a beautifully lit house. However, that’s not the real focus here - it's the Powerwall and Gateway on the wall.
The Powerwall is the focus of Giga Small Haus, and there’s a display with some additional information on the wall. Part of the display also includes a screen that displays the current output of the Powerwall itself versus the consumption of Giga Small Haus, as well as the input from solar.
The interior exhibit of Giga Small Haus
Not a Tesla App
The text on the exhibit is divided into several sections. Here’s a translated and edited version of what we can see from Tesla’s images. Some additional text is obscured. If someone visits Giga Small Haus, let us know.
Powerwall
Powerwall is a home battery system that stores energy from solar panels, the electrical grid, or during off-peak hours and powers your home during the day or during a power outage.
With Powerwall, you can use self-generated solar energy during the day and night, thus avoiding high electricity costs. You can also store excess energy produced during sunny periods for use during times of low production or power outages.
Key Features
Energy Storage: Powerwall stores excess energy from solar panels or the grid for later use or during power outages.
Backup Power: In the event of a power outage, Powerwall automatically switches to battery power to ensure continuous power supply.
Integration: Powerwall can be seamlessly integrated with existing solar systems and other power sources.
Scalability: Multiple Powerwalls can be installed to meet higher energy storage needs.
Smart Energy Management: Powerwall works with Tesla's software to optimize energy consumption and reduce costs.
How Powerwall Works
Storage: During the day, when solar panels produce more energy than needed, the excess is stored in Powerwall.
Usage: At night or during times of low solar production, the stored energy is used to power the home, reducing reliance on the grid.
Backup: During a power outage, Powerwall automatically provides power to critical circuits, ensuring continuous operation of essential appliances.
Benefits
Cost Savings: By storing and using solar energy, you can reduce your electricity bills.
Reliability: Provides backup power during outages, ensuring your home remains powered.
Sustainability: Promotes the use of renewable energy by storing excess solar production for later use.
Overall, Giga Small Haus is an interesting real-life demo of what Powerwall and Solar can accomplish. It would be neat if Tesla built more of these displays - perhaps near major Delivery and Service Centers and at Giga Texas, Fremont, Giga Shanghai, and other facilities. Many Tesla owners have yet to learn about and experience some of Tesla’s Energy products.
Tesla has added the Acceleration Boost option to the Tesla store for owners of the 2024 Model 3 Long Range - specifically owners in Australia and China. Acceleration Boost is an upgrade that provides a significant performance boost, drastically narrowing the performance gap between the Long Range and Performance versions of the same model.
This upgrade will likely become available in Europe, Canada, and the United States in the next few days as Tesla updates its shops globally.
Acceleration Boost
This new Acceleration Boost is retailing for $3,000 AUD, or approximately $2,000 USD. That’s the same price for current owners of older Model 3 or Model Y Long Range vehicles, which all have the option to purchase Acceleration Boost through the shop.
The boost provides improved 0-100km/h (0-60mph) performance, bumping the 2024 Model 3 LR from 4.4s to 3.8s. The 2024 Performance version comes in at a blazing fast 2.9 seconds, so while it isn’t equivalent to just buying a performance variant in the first place, it is still a noticeable and significant upgrade.
Performance variants also come with a different front fascia vent for cooling, performance drive units, sport seats, adaptive suspension, 20-inch wheels, and Track Mode V3. That’s a significant number of additional features in the $10,000 USD price difference between the Long Range and Performance versions.
Should You Buy It?
If you’ve purchased a Long Range model and are itching to go just that little bit faster at every red light, this is the upgrade for you. It previously came with the cost of slightly reducing vehicle range, but the Tesla store doesn’t make a note of reduced range this time around. The 2023 Model 3 and Model Y Long Range models had an efficiency loss of about 5% due to the additional always-available acceleration and cooling.
You could drive in Chill mode to mostly negate that efficiency loss, but what’s the fun in driving in Chill when you just got Acceleration Boost? Anyhow, the shop listing for the 2024 variant doesn’t include this detail, so it's possible Tesla may have worked some more engineering magic.
Overall, if you’ve got the $3,000 AUD burning a hole in your pocket, some Tesla referral credits sitting around, or just want to go faster, it's definitely an upgrade many users find valuable.
