Is Tesla’s Future as a Car Company, or a Services Company?

By Karan Singh
Robotaxi concept idea
Robotaxi concept idea
SugarDesign

With Tesla’s highly anticipated Robotaxi event just a couple of months away on 8/8, and the Robotaxi itself expected to come to market in 2025 or 2026, the question arises: what is Tesla’s future direction?

Will they continue to produce cutting-edge cars, or will they pivot toward a future where car ownership may no longer make sense?

Advantages of Robotaxi

One of Tesla’s upcoming focuses is bringing the price per mile for its Robotaxi network down to one that rivals bus tickets in major cities. Achieving this is quite an engineering and software feat and something that could still be years away.

But what about the Robotaxi itself? Will the advent of cheap, quickly available robotic taxis in cities and suburbs drive away car ownership in urbanized areas?

Tesla's robotaxi concept
Tesla's robotaxi concept
Not a Tesla App

The potential for Tesla’s Robotaxi service to transform what we currently know as urban mobility is immense. By offering a cost-effective, convenient, and eco-friendly alternative to traditional car ownership, Tesla could change how people navigate cities. The allure of summoning a cheap, quick, and clean Robotaxi could reduce car ownership in cities, alleviate traffic congestion, reduce pollution, and ease parking issues in urban areas.

Moreover, if Tesla succeeds in reducing the price per mile to be competitive with, or even cheaper than mass transit options, the financial incentive to abandon car ownership could become even stronger. For many urbanites, the expenses associated with car ownership – such as insurance, parking, maintenance, charging or fueling costs, and the upfront purchase – can be prohibitive. Robotaxis could tip the balance by providing a seamless, on-demand transportation solution without these additional expenses.

Trust in Robotaxis

Tesla's robotaxi app
Tesla's robotaxi app
Not a Tesla App

However, there are significant obstacles between Tesla and its rosy Robotaxi future. Regulatory and societal hurdles loom ahead on the horizon. From a regulatory perspective, getting Robotaxi services approved will be a major challenge, as Tesla’s autonomous competitors have found themselves operating in regulatory grey zones. Governments will need to develop new frameworks to accommodate and oversee the deployment of autonomous vehicles, ensuring they meet safety and operational standards.

Societally, people will need to adapt to the idea of letting a computer drive them around. This transition can be challenging; even Tesla has found it difficult to convert those offered the FSD V12 trial into paying subscribers. Building trust in autonomous vehicle technology is crucial for the mass adoption of Robotaxi services. Outside of diehard fans and tech enthusiasts, the general public will need to be convinced of the safety and reliability of autonomous vehicles.

Ensuring that Tesla’s reputation for safe vehicles transfers to Robotaxi and FSD will be essential. Tesla must demonstrate the consistent safety and reliability of its Robotaxis to gain this trust.

Reducing Parking & Increasing Drop Off Zones

Moreover, the presence and availability of Robotaxis required to displace car ownership in urban centers will necessitate substantial infrastructure investment and acceptance by local governments. Tesla has already deployed an impressive Supercharger network, but the scale required for a fully operational Robotaxi network is much larger. This will mean developing parking garages and charging stations in urban centers, located in centralized areas to ensure ease of access for Robotaxis.

Additionally, integrating Robotaxis into the existing urban fabric will require collaboration with city planners and local authorities. They will need to address concerns about traffic flow, designated pickup and drop-off points, and the overall impact on public transportation systems. The seamless integration of Robotaxis into cityscapes will be critical for their success.

In short, while the promise of Tesla’s Robotaxi network is transformative, achieving this vision will require overcoming significant technical, regulatory, and societal challenges. If Tesla can navigate these obstacles, the benefits of a cost-effective, convenient, and eco-friendly transportation alternative could revolutionize urban mobility, reduce car ownership, and contribute to a more sustainable future.

The interior of Tesla's upcoming robotaxi, named Cybercab
The interior of Tesla's upcoming robotaxi, named Cybercab
Not a Tesla App

Tesla as a Car Company

Today, Tesla is still fundamentally a car company. It produces five different consumer vehicles: the Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, and the Cybertruck. Of these, the Model Y achieved remarkable success in 2023, becoming the best-selling vehicle in the world, a significant milestone for an electric vehicle (EV). This success underscores Tesla’s engineering and design prowess, demonstrating its ability to create vehicles that appeal to everyday consumers.

Tesla’s focus on innovation and pushing the boundaries has set it apart in the automotive industry. The company revolutionized car manufacturing with its Gigacasting process, which allows large sections of the vehicle to be made from single pieces of cast aluminum. This innovation reduces complexity, increases production efficiency, and lowers costs. Tesla continues to innovate with its Unboxed vehicle assembly process, further streamlining production. Tesla’s vertically integrated approach is unique in the industry, minimizing reliance on third-party suppliers for vehicle subcomponents. This strategy enhances quality control and allows for faster implementation of new technologies. The Gigafactory model, established by Tesla, plays a crucial role in this approach. Located in the United States, China, Germany, and soon in Mexico, these Gigafactories are not just manufacturing hubs; they are centers of innovation. They serve as test beds for updated production processes and vehicle designs and are sites for subcomponent and battery assembly.

Beyond their manufacturing capabilities, each Tesla vehicle is an engineering marvel. Tesla’s cars consistently score some of the highest ratings in safety tests, reflecting the company’s commitment to building safe vehicles. Their performance is equally impressive; for example, the updated Model 3 Performance boasts an impressive 0-60 mph acceleration time. Tesla also continues to push the envelope with forthcoming models, such as the eagerly anticipated updated Roadster, which promises to deliver unparalleled performance.

Tesla has set industry standards in several key areas, including over-the-air updates, battery performance, acceleration, range, and user experience. The ability to receive software updates remotely keeps Tesla vehicles current and continuously enhances the user experience. The company leads in battery technology, offering some of the best range and performance metrics in the industry. Tesla’s vehicles are known for their impressive acceleration and long driving ranges, making them not only environmentally friendly but also highly practical and enjoyable to drive. Furthermore, Tesla excels in providing a superior user experience, both in the vehicle and during the shopping process, with minimalist, high-tech interiors and intuitive user interfaces.

Tesla Challenges

However, Tesla faces significant challenges as it continues to grow. The automotive industry is fiercely competitive, with both established automakers and new entrants ramping up their EV offerings. Companies like Ford, General Motors, Volkswagen, and Rivian are investing heavily in electric vehicle technology and infrastructure, intensifying the competition. There are also upcoming Chinese EV companies making strides in both battery tech and additionally, the global transition from internal combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles is still in its early stages. Broader adoption of EVs depends on various factors, including government policies, the development of charging infrastructure, and changing consumer preferences. Tesla’s ability to influence and adapt to these factors will be crucial for its sustained growth as a car manufacturer. 

Wrapping it all together, while Tesla is exploring new avenues as a services company, its core identity as a car manufacturer remains robust. The company’s success with the Model Y and its innovative manufacturing practices highlight its strength in the automotive sector. As Tesla continues to push the boundaries of electric vehicle technology and manufacturing, it solidifies its position as a leader in the industry and sets the stage for future growth.

Tesla Preparing to Expand Robotaxi Geofence As Validation Vehicles Spotted

By Karan Singh
Not a Tesla App

Tesla appears to be preparing to expand its Robotaxi geofence in Austin, Texas, with numerous engineering vehicles taking to the road. One of the most interesting sights, between the short and tall LiDAR rigs, was a Cybertruck validation vehicle, which we don’t often see.

Tesla’s expansion is moving the Robotaxi Network into downtown Austin, a dense urban environment that is currently outside the geofence. It appears Tesla is content with the latest builds of Robotaxi FSD and is ready to take on urban traffic.

The inclusion of a Cybertruck in the validation fleet is noteworthy, as the rest of the vehicles are Model Ys. This suggests that Tesla may be addressing two challenges simultaneously: expanding its service area while also addressing the FSD gap between the Cybertruck and other HW4 Tesla vehicles.

Using LiDAR

Recent sightings have shown a fleet of Tesla vehicles, equipped with rooftop validation sensor rigs, running routes throughout downtown Austin and across the South Congress Bridge. While these rigs include LiDAR, it’s not a sign that Tesla is abandoning its vision-only approach.

Instead, Tesla uses the high-fidelity data from the LiDAR as a ground truth measurement to validate and improve the performance of its cameras. In short, it essentially uses the LiDAR measurements as the actual distances and then compares the distances determined in vision-only to the LiDAR measurements. This allows Tesla to tweak and improve its vision system without needing LiDAR.

Additionally, the validation vehicles are likely scouting for the new, pre-determined, selectable pick-up locations that have just rolled out as part of the Robotaxi app.

Expanding the Geofence

This data collection in a new, complex environment right outside the Robotaxi geofence is an indicator that plans to expand the geofence. Tesla has previously indicated that they intend to roll out more vehicles and expand the geofence slowly. Given that their operational envelope includes the entire Austin Metro Area, we can expect more locations to open up gradually.

Once they expand the operational radius to include downtown Austin, they will likely also have to considerably increase the number of Robotaxis active in the fleet at any given time. Early-access riders are already saying that the wait time for a Robotaxi is too long, with them sometimes having to wait 15 minutes to be picked up.

With a larger service area, we expect Tesla to also increase the number of vehicles and the number of invited riders to try out the service.

After all, Tesla’s goal is to expand the Robotaxi Network to multiple cities within the United States by the end of 2025. Tesla has already been running an employees-only program in California, and we’ve seen validation vehicles as far away as Boston and New Jersey, on the other side of the country.

Cyber FSD Lagging Behind

One of the most significant details from these recent sightings is the presence of a Cybertruck. Cybertruck’s FSD builds have famously lagged behind the builds available on the rest of Tesla’s HW4 fleet. Key features that were expected never fully materialized for the Cybertruck, and the list of missing features is quite extensive.

  • Start FSD from Park

  • Improved Controller

  • Reverse on FSD

  • Actually Smart Summon

It may not look like a lot, but if you drive a Cybertruck on FSD and then hop in any of the rest of Tesla’s HW4 vehicles, you’ll notice a distinct difference. This is especially evident on highways, where the Cybertruck tends to drift out of the lane, often crossing over the lane markings.

We previously released an exclusive mentioning that a well-positioned internal source confirmed with us that a new FSD build for the Cybertruck was upcoming, but we never ended up receiving that particular build, only a point release to V13.2.9. The AI team’s focus had clearly shifted to getting the latest Robotaxi builds running and validated, and while a flagship, the Cybertruck fleet was small and new, and really a secondary task.

The Cybertruck’s larger size, steer-by-wire, rear-wheel steering, and different camera placements likely present a bigger set of challenges for FSD. Deploying it now as a validation vehicle in a complex environment like downtown Austin suggests that Tesla is finally gathering the specific data needed to bring the Cybertruck’s capabilities up to par. This focused effort is likely the necessary step to refine FSD’s handling of the Cybertruck before they begin rolling out new public builds.

When?

Once Tesla’s validation is complete, we can probably expect the Robotaxi Network to expand its borders for the first time in the coming days or weeks. However, we’ll likely see more signs of the expansion, such as Robotaxi vehicles driving themselves around the area, before the expansion actually happens.

Hopefully, the Cybertruck will also learn from its older siblings and receive the rest of its much-needed FSD features, alongside an FSD update for the entire fleet.

Tesla Updates Robotaxi App: Adds Adjustable Pick Up Locations, Shows Wait Time and More [VIDEO]

By Karan Singh
Nic Cruz Patane

Tesla is rolling out a fairly big update for its iOS and early-access-only Robotaxi app, delivering a suite of improvements that address user feedback from the initial launch last month. The update improves the user experience with increased flexibility, more information, and overall design polish.

The most prominent feature in this update is that Tesla now allows you to adjust your pickup location. Once a Robotaxi arrives at your pickup location, you have 15 minutes to start the ride. The app will now display the remaining time your Robotaxi will wait for you, counting down from 15:00. The wait time is also shown in the iOS Live Activity if your phone is on the lock screen.

How Adjustable Pickups Work

We previously speculated that Tesla had predetermined pickup locations, as the pickup location wasn’t always where the user was. Now, with the ability to adjust the pickup location, we can clearly see that Tesla has specific locations where users can be picked up.

Rather than allowing users to drop a pin anywhere on the map, the new feature works by having the user drag the map to their desired area. The app then presents a list of nearby, predetermined locations to choose from. Once a user selects a spot from this curated list, they hit “Confirm.” The pickup site can also be changed while the vehicle is en route.

This specific implementation raises an interesting question: Why limit users to predetermined spots? The answer likely lies in how Tesla utilizes fleet data to improve its service.

Release Notes

While the app is still only available on iOS through Apple’s TestFlight program, invited users can download and update the app.

Tesla included these release notes in update 25.7.0 of the Robotaxi app:

  • You can now adjust pickup location

  • Display the remaining wait time at pickup in the app and Live Activity

  • Design improvements

  • Bug fixes and stability improvements

Nic Cruz Patane

Why Predetermined Pick Up Spots?

The use of predetermined pickup points is less of a limitation and more of a feature. These curated locations are almost certainly spots that Tesla’s fleet data has identified as optimal and safe for an autonomous vehicle to perform a pickup or drop-off.

This suggests that Tesla is methodically “mapping” its service area not just for calibration and validation of FSD builds but also to help perform the first and last 50-foot interactions that are critical to a safe and smooth ride-hailing experience.

An optimal pickup point likely has several key characteristics identified by the fleet, including:

  • A safe and clear pull-away area away from traffic

  • Good visibility for cameras, free of obstructions

  • Easy entry and exit paths for an autonomous vehicle

This change to pick-up locations reveals how Tesla’s Robotaxi Network is more than just Unsupervised FSD. There are a lot of moving parts, many of which Tesla recently implemented, and others that likely still need to be implemented, such as automated charging.

Frequent Updates

This latest update delivers a much-needed feature for adjusting pickup locations, but it also gives us a view into exactly what Tesla is doing with all the data it is collecting with its validation vehicles rolling around Austin, alongside its Robotaxi fleet.

Tesla is quickly iterating on its app and presumably the vehicle’s software to build a reliable and predictable network, using data to perfect every aspect of the experience, from the moment you hail the ride to the moment you step out of the car.

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