With Tesla’s highly anticipated Robotaxi event just a couple of months away on 8/8, and the Robotaxi itself expected to come to market in 2025 or 2026, the question arises: what is Tesla’s future direction?
Will they continue to produce cutting-edge cars, or will they pivot toward a future where car ownership may no longer make sense?
Advantages of Robotaxi
One of Tesla’s upcoming focuses is bringing the price per mile for its Robotaxi network down to one that rivals bus tickets in major cities. Achieving this is quite an engineering and software feat and something that could still be years away.
But what about the Robotaxi itself? Will the advent of cheap, quickly available robotic taxis in cities and suburbs drive away car ownership in urbanized areas?
Tesla's robotaxi concept
Not a Tesla App
The potential for Tesla’s Robotaxi service to transform what we currently know as urban mobility is immense. By offering a cost-effective, convenient, and eco-friendly alternative to traditional car ownership, Tesla could change how people navigate cities. The allure of summoning a cheap, quick, and clean Robotaxi could reduce car ownership in cities, alleviate traffic congestion, reduce pollution, and ease parking issues in urban areas.
Moreover, if Tesla succeeds in reducing the price per mile to be competitive with, or even cheaper than mass transit options, the financial incentive to abandon car ownership could become even stronger. For many urbanites, the expenses associated with car ownership – such as insurance, parking, maintenance, charging or fueling costs, and the upfront purchase – can be prohibitive. Robotaxis could tip the balance by providing a seamless, on-demand transportation solution without these additional expenses.
Trust in Robotaxis
Tesla's robotaxi app
Not a Tesla App
However, there are significant obstacles between Tesla and its rosy Robotaxi future. Regulatory and societal hurdles loom ahead on the horizon. From a regulatory perspective, getting Robotaxi services approved will be a major challenge, as Tesla’s autonomous competitors have found themselves operating in regulatory grey zones. Governments will need to develop new frameworks to accommodate and oversee the deployment of autonomous vehicles, ensuring they meet safety and operational standards.
Societally, people will need to adapt to the idea of letting a computer drive them around. This transition can be challenging; even Tesla has found it difficult to convert those offered the FSD V12 trial into paying subscribers. Building trust in autonomous vehicle technology is crucial for the mass adoption of Robotaxi services. Outside of diehard fans and tech enthusiasts, the general public will need to be convinced of the safety and reliability of autonomous vehicles.
Ensuring that Tesla’s reputation for safe vehicles transfers to Robotaxi and FSD will be essential. Tesla must demonstrate the consistent safety and reliability of its Robotaxis to gain this trust.
Reducing Parking & Increasing Drop Off Zones
Moreover, the presence and availability of Robotaxis required to displace car ownership in urban centers will necessitate substantial infrastructure investment and acceptance by local governments. Tesla has already deployed an impressive Supercharger network, but the scale required for a fully operational Robotaxi network is much larger. This will mean developing parking garages and charging stations in urban centers, located in centralized areas to ensure ease of access for Robotaxis.
Additionally, integrating Robotaxis into the existing urban fabric will require collaboration with city planners and local authorities. They will need to address concerns about traffic flow, designated pickup and drop-off points, and the overall impact on public transportation systems. The seamless integration of Robotaxis into cityscapes will be critical for their success.
In short, while the promise of Tesla’s Robotaxi network is transformative, achieving this vision will require overcoming significant technical, regulatory, and societal challenges. If Tesla can navigate these obstacles, the benefits of a cost-effective, convenient, and eco-friendly transportation alternative could revolutionize urban mobility, reduce car ownership, and contribute to a more sustainable future.
The interior of Tesla's upcoming robotaxi, named Cybercab
Not a Tesla App
Tesla as a Car Company
Today, Tesla is still fundamentally a car company. It produces five different consumer vehicles: the Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, and the Cybertruck. Of these, the Model Y achieved remarkable success in 2023, becoming the best-selling vehicle in the world, a significant milestone for an electric vehicle (EV). This success underscores Tesla’s engineering and design prowess, demonstrating its ability to create vehicles that appeal to everyday consumers.
Tesla’s focus on innovation and pushing the boundaries has set it apart in the automotive industry. The company revolutionized car manufacturing with its Gigacasting process, which allows large sections of the vehicle to be made from single pieces of cast aluminum. This innovation reduces complexity, increases production efficiency, and lowers costs. Tesla continues to innovate with its Unboxed vehicle assembly process, further streamlining production. Tesla’s vertically integrated approach is unique in the industry, minimizing reliance on third-party suppliers for vehicle subcomponents. This strategy enhances quality control and allows for faster implementation of new technologies. The Gigafactory model, established by Tesla, plays a crucial role in this approach. Located in the United States, China, Germany, and soon in Mexico, these Gigafactories are not just manufacturing hubs; they are centers of innovation. They serve as test beds for updated production processes and vehicle designs and are sites for subcomponent and battery assembly.
Beyond their manufacturing capabilities, each Tesla vehicle is an engineering marvel. Tesla’s cars consistently score some of the highest ratings in safety tests, reflecting the company’s commitment to building safe vehicles. Their performance is equally impressive; for example, the updated Model 3 Performance boasts an impressive 0-60 mph acceleration time. Tesla also continues to push the envelope with forthcoming models, such as the eagerly anticipated updated Roadster, which promises to deliver unparalleled performance.
Tesla has set industry standards in several key areas, including over-the-air updates, battery performance, acceleration, range, and user experience. The ability to receive software updates remotely keeps Tesla vehicles current and continuously enhances the user experience. The company leads in battery technology, offering some of the best range and performance metrics in the industry. Tesla’s vehicles are known for their impressive acceleration and long driving ranges, making them not only environmentally friendly but also highly practical and enjoyable to drive. Furthermore, Tesla excels in providing a superior user experience, both in the vehicle and during the shopping process, with minimalist, high-tech interiors and intuitive user interfaces.
Tesla Challenges
However, Tesla faces significant challenges as it continues to grow. The automotive industry is fiercely competitive, with both established automakers and new entrants ramping up their EV offerings. Companies like Ford, General Motors, Volkswagen, and Rivian are investing heavily in electric vehicle technology and infrastructure, intensifying the competition. There are also upcoming Chinese EV companies making strides in both battery tech and additionally, the global transition from internal combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles is still in its early stages. Broader adoption of EVs depends on various factors, including government policies, the development of charging infrastructure, and changing consumer preferences. Tesla’s ability to influence and adapt to these factors will be crucial for its sustained growth as a car manufacturer.
Wrapping it all together, while Tesla is exploring new avenues as a services company, its core identity as a car manufacturer remains robust. The company’s success with the Model Y and its innovative manufacturing practices highlight its strength in the automotive sector. As Tesla continues to push the boundaries of electric vehicle technology and manufacturing, it solidifies its position as a leader in the industry and sets the stage for future growth.
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The Super Manifold is Tesla’s solution to reducing the complexity of a heat pump system for an EV. Tesla showed off its engineering chops back with the original Model Y in 2019, where it introduced a new 8-way valve (the Octovalve) and a new heat pump alongside the uniquely designed Super Manifold to improve efficiency.
Now, Tesla is launching an improved version with the refreshed Model Y - the Super Manifold V2. We got to hear about it thanks to Sandy Munro’s interview with Tesla’s Lars Moravy (Vice President of Vehicle Engineering) and Franz Von Holzhausen (Chief of Vehicle Design). You can watch the video further below.
What Is The Super Manifold?
The Super Manifold (get it, Superman?), is an all-in-one package that brings in all the components of a heat pump system into one component. The Super Manifold packs all the refrigerant and coolant components around a 2-layer PCB (printed circuit board).
This Super Manifold would normally have 15 or 20 separate components, but Tesla managed to integrate them all into one nice package. That presented Tesla with a new challenge: how to integrate a heat pump—capable of both heating and cooling—into a single, efficient platform?
Several years ago, Tesla designed the Octovalve. It combines inlets and outlets and can variably change between heating or cooling on the fly - without needing to be plumbed in different directions. This is especially important for EVs, which may need to heat the battery with the waste heat generated from the motors or the heat pump while also cooling the cabin - or vice versa.
Original Super Manifold V1.1
Tesla launched the Super Manifold V1.1 back in 2022, and it provided some minor improvements to the waste heat processing of the heat exchange system. It also tightened up the Octovalve, preventing the leakage of oils into the HVAC loop that could cause it to freeze at extremely low temperatures.
Tesla has been using the V1.1 for several years now, and it has really solved the vast majority of issues with the heat pump system that many older Model Ys experienced.
Super Manifold V2 Coming Soon
Now, Tesla is introducing the Super Manifold V2 in the new Model Y. It will improve the overall cooling capacity provided by the original Super Manifold, but unfortunately, not every single new Model Y will come with it equipped. Tesla will be introducing it slowly across the lineup and at different rates at different factories, depending on part availability.
Eventually, the Super Manifold V2 will also make its way to other vehicles, potentially including the upcoming refresh for the Model S and Model X, but initially, it’ll be exclusive to the new Model Y. Tesla expects to have the new manifold in every new Model Y later this year.
If you’re interested in checking out the whole video, we’ve got it for you below.
Mark Rober, of glitter bomb package fame, recently released a video titled Can You Fool A Self-Driving Car? (posted below). Of course, the vehicle featured in the video was none other than a Tesla - but there’s a lot wrong with this video that we’d like to discuss.
We did some digging and let the last couple of days play out before making our case. Mark Rober’s Wile E. Coyote video is fatally flawed.
The Premise
Mark Rober wanted to prove whether or not it was possible to fool a self-driving vehicle, using various test scenarios. These included a wall painted to look like a road, low-lying fog, mannequins, hurricane-force rain, and bright beams.
All of these individual “tests” had their own issues - not least because Mark didn’t adhere to any sort of testing methodology, but because he was looking for a result - and edited his tests until he was sure of it.
Interestingly, many folks on X were quick to spot that Mark had been previously sponsored by Google to use a Pixel phone - but was using an iPhone to record within the vehicle - which he had edited to look like a Pixel phone for some reason. This, alongside other poor edits and cuts, led many, including us, to believe that Mark’s testing was edited and flawed.
Flaw 1: Autopilot, Not FSD
Let’s take a look at the first flaw. Mark tested Autopilot - not FSD. Autopilot is a driving aid for lane centering and speed control - and is not the least bit autonomous. It cannot take evasive maneuvers outside the lane it is in, but it can use the full stable of Tesla’s extensive features, including Automatic Emergency Braking, Forward Collision Warnings, Blind Spot Collision Warnings, and Lane Departure Avoidance.
On the other hand, FSD is allowed and capable of departing the lane to avoid a collision. That means that even if Autopilot tried to stop and was unable to, it would still impact whatever obstacle was in front of it - unlike FSD.
As we continue with the FSD argument - remember that Autopilot is running on a 5-year-old software stack that hasn’t seen updates. Sadly, this is the reality of Tesla not updating the Autopilot stack for quite some time. It seems likely that they’ll eventually bring a trimmed-down version of FSD to replace Autopilot, but that hasn’t happened yet.
Mark later admitted that he used Autopilot rather than FSD because “You cannot engage FSD without putting in a destination,” which is also incorrect. It is possible to engage FSD without a destination, but FSD chooses its own route. Where it goes isn’t within your control until you select a destination, but it tends to navigate through roads in a generally forward direction.
The whole situation, from not having FSD on the vehicle to not knowing you can activate FSD without a destination, suggests Mark is rather unfamiliar with FSD and likely has limited exposure to the feature.
Let’s keep in mind that FSD costs $99 for a single month, so there’s no excuse for him not using it in this video.
Flaw 2: Cancelling AP and Pushing Pedals
Many people on X also followed up with reports that Mark was pushing the pedals or pulling on the steering wheel. When you tap on the brake pedal or pull or jerk the steering wheel too much, Autopilot will disengage. For some reason, during each of his “tests,” Mark closely held the steering wheel of the vehicle.
This comes off as rather odd - at the extremely short distances he was enabling AP at, there wouldn’t be enough time for a wheel nag or takeover warning required. In addition, we can visibly see him pulling the steering wheel before “impact” in multiple tests.
Over on X, techAU breaks it down excellently on a per-test basis. Mark did not engage AP in several tests, and he potentially used the accelerator pedal during the first test - which means that Automatic Emergency Braking is overridden. In another test, Mark admitted to using the pedals.
Flaw 3: Luminar Sponsored
This video was potentially sponsored by a LiDAR manufacturer - Luminar. Although Mark says that this isn’t the case. Interestingly, Luminar makes LiDAR rigs for Tesla - who uses them to test ground truth accuracy for FSD. Just as interesting, Luminar’s Earnings Call was also coming up at the time of the video’s posting.
Luminar had linked the video at the top of their homepage but has since taken it down. While Mark did not admit to being sponsored by Luminar, there appear to be more distinct conflicts of interest, as Mark’s charity foundation has received donations from Luminar’s CEO.
Given the positivity of the results for Luminar, it seems that the video had been well-designed and well-timed to take advantage of the current wave of negativity against Tesla, while also driving up Luminar’s stock.
Flaw 4: Vision-based Depth Estimation
The next flaw to address is the fact that humans and machines can judge depth using vision. On X, user Abdou ran the “invisible wall” through a monocular depth estimation model (DepthAnythingV2) - one that uses a single image with a single angle. This fairly simplified model can estimate the distance and depth of items inside an image - and it was able to differentiate the fake wall from its surroundings easily.
Tesla’s FSD uses a far more advanced multi-angle, multi-image tool that stitches together and creates a 3D model of the environment around it and then analyzes the result for decision-making and prediction. Tesla’s more refined and complex model would be far more able to easily detect such an obstacle - and these innovations are far more recent than the 5-year-old Autopilot stack.
While detecting distances is more difficult in a single image, once you have multiple images, such as in a video feed, you can more easily decipher between objects and determine distances by tracking the size of each pixel as the object approaches. Essentially, if all pixels are growing at a constant rate, then that means it’s a flat object — like a wall.
Case in Point: Chinese FSD Testers
To make the case stronger - some Chinese FSD testers took to the streets and put up a semi-transparent sheet - which the vehicle refused to drive through or drive near. It would immediately attempt to maneuver away each time the test was engaged - and refused to advance with a pedestrian standing in the road.
Would FSD hit a transparent film wall? This test showed it just avoids it.
Thanks to Douyin and Aaron Li for putting this together, as it makes an excellent basic example of how FSD would handle such a situation in real life.
Flaw 5: The Follow-Up Video and Interview
Following the community backlash, Mark released a video on X, hoping to resolve the community’s concerns. However, this also backfired. It turned out Mark’s second video was of an entirely different take than the one in the original video - this was at a different speed, angle, and time of initiation.
Mark then followed up with an interview with Philip DeFranco (below), where he said that there were multiple takes and that he used Autopilot because he didn’t know that FSD could be engaged without a destination. He also answered here that Luminar supposedly did not pay him for the video - even with their big showing as the “leader in LiDAR technology” throughout the video.
Putting It All Together
Overall, Mark’s video was rather duplicitous - he recorded multiple takes to get what he needed, prevented Tesla’s software from functioning properly by intervening, and used an outdated feature set that isn’t FSD - like his video is titled.
Upcoming Videos
Several other video creators are already working to replicate what Mark “tried” to test in this video.
To get a complete picture, we need to see unedited takes, even if they’re included at the end of the video. The full vehicle specifications should also be disclosed. Additionally, the test should be conducted using Tesla’s latest hardware and software—specifically, an HW4 vehicle running FSD v13.2.8.
In Mark’s video, Autopilot was engaged just seconds before impact. However, for a proper evaluation, FSD should be activated much earlier, allowing it time to react and, if capable, stop before hitting the wall.
A wave of new videos is likely on the way—stay tuned, and we’ll be sure to cover the best ones.
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