Is Tesla’s Future as a Car Company, or a Services Company?

By Karan Singh
Robotaxi concept idea
Robotaxi concept idea
SugarDesign

With Tesla’s highly anticipated Robotaxi event just a couple of months away on 8/8, and the Robotaxi itself expected to come to market in 2025 or 2026, the question arises: what is Tesla’s future direction?

Will they continue to produce cutting-edge cars, or will they pivot toward a future where car ownership may no longer make sense?

Advantages of Robotaxi

One of Tesla’s upcoming focuses is bringing the price per mile for its Robotaxi network down to one that rivals bus tickets in major cities. Achieving this is quite an engineering and software feat and something that could still be years away.

But what about the Robotaxi itself? Will the advent of cheap, quickly available robotic taxis in cities and suburbs drive away car ownership in urbanized areas?

Tesla's robotaxi concept
Tesla's robotaxi concept
Not a Tesla App

The potential for Tesla’s Robotaxi service to transform what we currently know as urban mobility is immense. By offering a cost-effective, convenient, and eco-friendly alternative to traditional car ownership, Tesla could change how people navigate cities. The allure of summoning a cheap, quick, and clean Robotaxi could reduce car ownership in cities, alleviate traffic congestion, reduce pollution, and ease parking issues in urban areas.

Moreover, if Tesla succeeds in reducing the price per mile to be competitive with, or even cheaper than mass transit options, the financial incentive to abandon car ownership could become even stronger. For many urbanites, the expenses associated with car ownership – such as insurance, parking, maintenance, charging or fueling costs, and the upfront purchase – can be prohibitive. Robotaxis could tip the balance by providing a seamless, on-demand transportation solution without these additional expenses.

Trust in Robotaxis

Tesla's robotaxi app
Tesla's robotaxi app
Not a Tesla App

However, there are significant obstacles between Tesla and its rosy Robotaxi future. Regulatory and societal hurdles loom ahead on the horizon. From a regulatory perspective, getting Robotaxi services approved will be a major challenge, as Tesla’s autonomous competitors have found themselves operating in regulatory grey zones. Governments will need to develop new frameworks to accommodate and oversee the deployment of autonomous vehicles, ensuring they meet safety and operational standards.

Societally, people will need to adapt to the idea of letting a computer drive them around. This transition can be challenging; even Tesla has found it difficult to convert those offered the FSD V12 trial into paying subscribers. Building trust in autonomous vehicle technology is crucial for the mass adoption of Robotaxi services. Outside of diehard fans and tech enthusiasts, the general public will need to be convinced of the safety and reliability of autonomous vehicles.

Ensuring that Tesla’s reputation for safe vehicles transfers to Robotaxi and FSD will be essential. Tesla must demonstrate the consistent safety and reliability of its Robotaxis to gain this trust.

Reducing Parking & Increasing Drop Off Zones

Moreover, the presence and availability of Robotaxis required to displace car ownership in urban centers will necessitate substantial infrastructure investment and acceptance by local governments. Tesla has already deployed an impressive Supercharger network, but the scale required for a fully operational Robotaxi network is much larger. This will mean developing parking garages and charging stations in urban centers, located in centralized areas to ensure ease of access for Robotaxis.

Additionally, integrating Robotaxis into the existing urban fabric will require collaboration with city planners and local authorities. They will need to address concerns about traffic flow, designated pickup and drop-off points, and the overall impact on public transportation systems. The seamless integration of Robotaxis into cityscapes will be critical for their success.

In short, while the promise of Tesla’s Robotaxi network is transformative, achieving this vision will require overcoming significant technical, regulatory, and societal challenges. If Tesla can navigate these obstacles, the benefits of a cost-effective, convenient, and eco-friendly transportation alternative could revolutionize urban mobility, reduce car ownership, and contribute to a more sustainable future.

The interior of Tesla's upcoming robotaxi, named Cybercab
The interior of Tesla's upcoming robotaxi, named Cybercab
Not a Tesla App

Tesla as a Car Company

Today, Tesla is still fundamentally a car company. It produces five different consumer vehicles: the Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, and the Cybertruck. Of these, the Model Y achieved remarkable success in 2023, becoming the best-selling vehicle in the world, a significant milestone for an electric vehicle (EV). This success underscores Tesla’s engineering and design prowess, demonstrating its ability to create vehicles that appeal to everyday consumers.

Tesla’s focus on innovation and pushing the boundaries has set it apart in the automotive industry. The company revolutionized car manufacturing with its Gigacasting process, which allows large sections of the vehicle to be made from single pieces of cast aluminum. This innovation reduces complexity, increases production efficiency, and lowers costs. Tesla continues to innovate with its Unboxed vehicle assembly process, further streamlining production. Tesla’s vertically integrated approach is unique in the industry, minimizing reliance on third-party suppliers for vehicle subcomponents. This strategy enhances quality control and allows for faster implementation of new technologies. The Gigafactory model, established by Tesla, plays a crucial role in this approach. Located in the United States, China, Germany, and soon in Mexico, these Gigafactories are not just manufacturing hubs; they are centers of innovation. They serve as test beds for updated production processes and vehicle designs and are sites for subcomponent and battery assembly.

Beyond their manufacturing capabilities, each Tesla vehicle is an engineering marvel. Tesla’s cars consistently score some of the highest ratings in safety tests, reflecting the company’s commitment to building safe vehicles. Their performance is equally impressive; for example, the updated Model 3 Performance boasts an impressive 0-60 mph acceleration time. Tesla also continues to push the envelope with forthcoming models, such as the eagerly anticipated updated Roadster, which promises to deliver unparalleled performance.

Tesla has set industry standards in several key areas, including over-the-air updates, battery performance, acceleration, range, and user experience. The ability to receive software updates remotely keeps Tesla vehicles current and continuously enhances the user experience. The company leads in battery technology, offering some of the best range and performance metrics in the industry. Tesla’s vehicles are known for their impressive acceleration and long driving ranges, making them not only environmentally friendly but also highly practical and enjoyable to drive. Furthermore, Tesla excels in providing a superior user experience, both in the vehicle and during the shopping process, with minimalist, high-tech interiors and intuitive user interfaces.

Tesla Challenges

However, Tesla faces significant challenges as it continues to grow. The automotive industry is fiercely competitive, with both established automakers and new entrants ramping up their EV offerings. Companies like Ford, General Motors, Volkswagen, and Rivian are investing heavily in electric vehicle technology and infrastructure, intensifying the competition. There are also upcoming Chinese EV companies making strides in both battery tech and additionally, the global transition from internal combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles is still in its early stages. Broader adoption of EVs depends on various factors, including government policies, the development of charging infrastructure, and changing consumer preferences. Tesla’s ability to influence and adapt to these factors will be crucial for its sustained growth as a car manufacturer. 

Wrapping it all together, while Tesla is exploring new avenues as a services company, its core identity as a car manufacturer remains robust. The company’s success with the Model Y and its innovative manufacturing practices highlight its strength in the automotive sector. As Tesla continues to push the boundaries of electric vehicle technology and manufacturing, it solidifies its position as a leader in the industry and sets the stage for future growth.

Tesla’s Hollywood Diner: In-Car Controls & Theater Screens Turned On [VIDEO]

By Karan Singh
Sky Fox

Tesla has been quietly building something pretty unique on the streets of Hollywood—and we’ve been keeping a close eye on it. That’s right: the long-anticipated Tesla Hollywood Drive-In, Diner, and Supercharger is shaping up to be one of the most creative approaches to EV charging yet.

But this isn’t your average Supercharger site. It features a retro-futuristic, 24-hour diner and an outdoor movie theater, blending the charm of the 1980s with the tech-forward vibe of the 2020s.

Construction has been underway for quite some time, with the Cybertruck-inspired stainless steel structure going up around mid-2024. And more recently, we spotted hints in the Tesla app that the Diner’s debut is getting close.

Diner Controls in App / Car

Tesla hacker Greentheonly managed to spot some new evidence of changes within Tesla’s 2025.8.6 software build, which includes a new modal for “Charger Diner Controls”. While there isn’t anything to activate this new modal just yet, it is an indication of how Tesla intends to integrate the experience right into each and every Tesla.

The text in the modal reads: “Plug in, place your order, recharge” - which means that once you arrive and are plugged in, you’ll be able to place your order - and likely pay through Tesla’s payment system. It seems like this will all be done through either the Tesla app or the vehicle’s tocuh screen. No need to fumble with a separate app or pull out your wallet.

This is definitely a level of integration you just can’t have anywhere else - and just like any other Supercharger site, the Tesla Diner will appear as a suggested site for charging when you’re navigating or looking around the Hollywood area.

45-Foot Screens Ready

Those two absolutely gigantic 45-foot LED screens have now been turned on for the first time, meaning that Tesla is likely close to opening the Supercharger site. The screens were spotted displaying some test patterns, as well as some Tesla-themed content. It really brings the construction site to life - and it's the clearest sign that the Diner is well on its way to completion.

We’re hoping that this first Tesla Diner sees plenty of success - and that Tesla begins opening more of these types of facilities throughout North America, and eventually globally. Given Tesla’s penchant for unique Superchargers, we imagine this could truly be the case one day.

Tesla’s FSD V13 Pushes HW4 Hardware Capabilities; End of Line for HW3?

By Karan Singh
Not a Tesla App

As Tesla continues to push the capabilities of its hardware as it prepares for autonomy with FSD Unsupervised, there has been a distinct divergence in features between HW4-equipped vehicles on FSD V13, and HW3-equipped vehicles on FSD V12.6. 

There are definitely reasons for this, and Tesla hacker Greentheonly, over on X, went into great detail on some of the reasons why this divergence has continued and is likely to continue.

If you’re interested in some background, we recommend the following articles. Although they’re not necessary, you may enjoy reading them before diving right in if you enjoy this topic.

Back in the summer of 2024, we reported that Tesla’s HW4 had yet to reach its full potential, and that HW3 still had some compute to work with. However, FSD has undergone a rapid evolution - there are now fundamental differences driven by the hardware capabilities and sheer scale of the latest builds of FSD.

FSD V13’s Gargantuan Neural Networks

FSD V13 is a substantial leap for Tesla. It features substantially larger neural networks - the core brain that processes all the environmental data and makes decisions. Those networks are far larger in V13 than in V12, which results in a much smoother and human-like expereience.

Tesla’s FSD computers contain two nodes. According to Green’s analysis of FSD V13, Node B, which handles the actual end-to-end driving logic, tripled in size from 2.3 GB in V12 to a staggering 7.5 GB in V13. That’s a substantial increase, and one of the main reasons why HW3 can’t handle FSD V13. While Interestingly, Node A on HW4 remains similar in size to FSD V12, using up about 2.3 GB.

However, this massive size is also pushing the limits of HW4. While this isn’t necessarily a big problem immediately - at the end of the day, there is a limited amount of compute and ram available and model sizes will likely grow in the future. In fact, Tesla is planning to scale model sizes in the next FSD version and has already said they’ll need to optimize them, as context size is limited by on-board memory.

HW3 Limitations

Since HW3 can’t run the latest FSD models, where does this leave millions of Tesla vehicles equipped with the now-legacy FSD hardware? Are they hitting a dead end? Not exactly - Tesla has promised to replace HW3 computers with new units during the Q4 2024 Earnings Call, but only for those who have purchased FSD and only if Tesla is no longer able to update HW3 vehicles.

There’s no doubt Tesla hopes to achieve autonomy and then work backwards to make it compatible with HW3, but that’s unlikely to happen with the limited ram available on HW3.

Tesla’s AI team has continued to say that they’re still working on updating HW3 vehicles - but that they will be taking a backburner to updates for HW4 until the team can optimize the model efficiently enough to run on the smaller footprint. That means V12.6 isn’t just V13 “lite” - it is a distinctly different software branch tailored specifically for HW3’s capabilities.

Green's analysis showed that HW3 under V12.6 runs NNs totaling 1.2 GB on Node A and 3.1 GB on Node B, which is significantly smaller than the footprint of V13. Back in November, we discussed how Tesla is running a smaller and optimized FSD model on HW3, with the specific goal of achieving similar performance to V13. FSD V12.6 appears to be the current implementation of that smaller model strategy.

Green also found that of the total neural nets used for FSD, 135 are shared between the current V12.6 and FSD V13.2 releases, which is the result of Tesla’s AI team working to optimize and refine the V13 model for HW3. So some neural nets are shared between the two sets of hardware, while others are specific to HW3 or HW4.

AI4 in the Future

The fact that V13 is already stretching HW4’s limits makes us wonder about Tesla’s imminent release of AI5. Last year, Tesla mentioned that AI5 would be 18 months away - which is now about 8 months away, and potentially even sooner to help solve the autonomy problem.

At the same time, Tesla is looking to launch Unsupervised FSD in June in Austin, Texas, with presumably HW4, which would indicate that they’re confident in its capabilities.

Unless Tesla launches the Robotaxi network with AI5, we don’t believe AI5 will be a “must have” item. Undoubtedly, it will result in similar improvements to HW4 compared to HW3. However, the software needed to take advantage of the newer hardware could still be years away.

All eyes will be on Tesla’s Robotaxi network launch and the hardware required for it. For now, HW4 owners are in good hands with future updates are on the horizon, and we’re certainly excited for what’s next.

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