Tesla’s latest set of updates has been fast-moving, with lots of bug fixes, and this fits with Musk’s philosophy of moving fast and breaking things. Some people are still on 2024.8.9, some are still on 2024.3.25, and some people are already on the 2024.14.8 Spring Update, and there’s also the brand-new 2024.20 update that just went out to employees for testing.
Let’s take a look at how Tesla’s software distribution system works, and why you are where you are.
Statistics
Before diving deep into how it all works, let’s get some statistics out of the way. We’ll be using the statistics we use here on the site, which are powered by TeslaFi.
The vehicles on each update
Not a Tesla App
As we can see, the tracked fleet is about 30% 2024.14 – the spring update; 2024.8 – Tesla’s previous major update, which contains FSD V11; and 2024.3 – the FSD V12.3 update. The remaining fleet on 2023.44 or other updates is fairly negligible, at around 10%.
So, about 65% of the tracked fleet has access to FSD V12, depending on their country of origin. The remaining 25% of the fleet only has access to FSD V11 if they’re in an eligible region.
FSD Update Track
When someone subscribes or purchases FSD in the U.S. or Canada, Tesla enables the FSD feature on that vehicle’s firmware, which currently could be either FSD v11 or FSD v12.
Once you’ve subscribed to FSD, you’re generally put on the ‘FSD Track,’ which means you’ll start receiving the latest FSD updates, like FSD v12.4. These updates are usually exclusive to FSD subscribers as they serve as a testing ground for the latest FSD revision. They’ve been update versions such as 2024.9.5, 2024.3.25, 2023.27.5 and so on. In the past year or so, they’ve all been odd week numbers, but that hasn’t always been the case.
However, the downside is that Tesla develops FSD at a different pace, and while you’re one of the earlier individuals to test out the latest FSD version, these updates are usually several major updates behind Tesla’s latest, meaning you don’t always have access to Tesla’s latest features. Currently, these are owners on update 2024.3.25 who are waiting on FSD v12.4, but still don’t have the Tesla features in update 2024.8 or 2024.14.
Vehicle Eligibility
Not all vehicles are eligible for all updates, and this is a twofold reason. First, if you’re on an update that is on a newer branch, say 2024.8.9, you cannot go down to 2024.3.5. The version number is broken down to year, week number and revision. So update 2024.8.9 is the 9th revision of the update that was created on the 8th week of 2024.
In general, Tesla does not roll back versions, so if someone is already on update 2024.14, then their vehicle wouldn’t be eligible for FSD 12.4, which is update 2024.9.5. This is mainly due to potential issues since Tesla doesn’t thoroughly test rolling back software.
Your vehicle will always be eligible for updates on a later branch, even if you won’t necessarily receive that update – like the many owners on update 2024.8 or 2024.3 who haven’t received update 2024.14 yet.
The second factor is hardware. Vehicles on older hardware variants, or vehicles that are considered to be legacy, are just not eligible for some updates. This is something that Tesla decides as newer hardware is needed for newer features and support for legacy hardware may not be included in all updates.
If you’ve subscribed to FSD and you’re on update 2024.8.9 and wondering why you’re not receiving update 2024.14, that’s why. Tesla wants your vehicle to be eligible for the next FSD v12.4 update, which will be update 2024.9.5.
Vehicle Variants
Sometimes, updates are not sent out widely for the simple reason of hardware variants. Tesla’s fleet has become widely fractured over the years, with many different variants of vehicles on the road today. Some 2022 Model Y’s may have Matrix headlights, while some may not, and some may have USS, while others don’t. Most have HW3, but a few have HW4!
That’s 6 possible branching variants in one year – a total of 24 possible variants for just the 2022 Model Y, not including the Performance, Long-Range, Rear-Wheel Drive, 4680-cell Rear-Wheel Drive, and the odd 2022 Standard-Range Dual-Motor variants that are also all different! If you did the math, there are 362 thousand possible variants, but not likely more than ~40 or so actual builds that Tesla differentiates between for software for all vehicles.
That means a complex and well-thought-out update process has to be built in order to deploy a functional update to all these vehicle variants.
Bug Fixing
Besides the complexity of vehicle variants, Tesla also has to catch and fix bugs. No matter how good one is at software development, sometimes bugs just escape into the wild. And fixing those bugs is essential since they could leave a vehicle undriveable. Although a major issue is rare, Tesla has had some issues in the past, such as Automatic Emergency Braking being disabled due to a software issue. This is why Tesla rolls out updates gradually.
We’ve seen this play out with update 2024.14, which has received numerous bug-fix releases. Tesla will release an update to a set of cars, discover an issue, and stop the rollout. A few days later, another update is out with additional fixes, and so on.
Conclusion
So, if you’re stuck on update 2024.8.9 or 2024.3.25, and are wondering when you’ll get FSD V12 or the Spring Update, you’ll have to hang on – the author is also on 2024.8.9 with V11!
Elon Musk mentioned on X that FSD V12.4 should be the update the reduces FSD branching and will bring everyone to FSD V12 in general. 2024.9.5 is the FSD V12.4 update, and it looks like vehicles that are below that branch number should be collectively receiving the reduced-nag V12.4 update.
When we finally receive FSD V12.4, we’ll likely need to hang on for a little longer until FSD V12.4.1 or FSD V12.5 rolls along to have the Spring Update.
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The Super Manifold is Tesla’s solution to reducing the complexity of a heat pump system for an EV. Tesla showed off its engineering chops back with the original Model Y in 2019, where it introduced a new 8-way valve (the Octovalve) and a new heat pump alongside the uniquely designed Super Manifold to improve efficiency.
Now, Tesla is launching an improved version with the refreshed Model Y - the Super Manifold V2. We got to hear about it thanks to Sandy Munro’s interview with Tesla’s Lars Moravy (Vice President of Vehicle Engineering) and Franz Von Holzhausen (Chief of Vehicle Design). You can watch the video further below.
What Is The Super Manifold?
The Super Manifold (get it, Superman?), is an all-in-one package that brings in all the components of a heat pump system into one component. The Super Manifold packs all the refrigerant and coolant components around a 2-layer PCB (printed circuit board).
This Super Manifold would normally have 15 or 20 separate components, but Tesla managed to integrate them all into one nice package. That presented Tesla with a new challenge: how to integrate a heat pump—capable of both heating and cooling—into a single, efficient platform?
Several years ago, Tesla designed the Octovalve. It combines inlets and outlets and can variably change between heating or cooling on the fly - without needing to be plumbed in different directions. This is especially important for EVs, which may need to heat the battery with the waste heat generated from the motors or the heat pump while also cooling the cabin - or vice versa.
Original Super Manifold V1.1
Tesla launched the Super Manifold V1.1 back in 2022, and it provided some minor improvements to the waste heat processing of the heat exchange system. It also tightened up the Octovalve, preventing the leakage of oils into the HVAC loop that could cause it to freeze at extremely low temperatures.
Tesla has been using the V1.1 for several years now, and it has really solved the vast majority of issues with the heat pump system that many older Model Ys experienced.
Super Manifold V2 Coming Soon
Now, Tesla is introducing the Super Manifold V2 in the new Model Y. It will improve the overall cooling capacity provided by the original Super Manifold, but unfortunately, not every single new Model Y will come with it equipped. Tesla will be introducing it slowly across the lineup and at different rates at different factories, depending on part availability.
Eventually, the Super Manifold V2 will also make its way to other vehicles, potentially including the upcoming refresh for the Model S and Model X, but initially, it’ll be exclusive to the new Model Y. Tesla expects to have the new manifold in every new Model Y later this year.
If you’re interested in checking out the whole video, we’ve got it for you below.
Mark Rober, of glitter bomb package fame, recently released a video titled Can You Fool A Self-Driving Car? (posted below). Of course, the vehicle featured in the video was none other than a Tesla - but there’s a lot wrong with this video that we’d like to discuss.
We did some digging and let the last couple of days play out before making our case. Mark Rober’s Wile E. Coyote video is fatally flawed.
The Premise
Mark Rober wanted to prove whether or not it was possible to fool a self-driving vehicle, using various test scenarios. These included a wall painted to look like a road, low-lying fog, mannequins, hurricane-force rain, and bright beams.
All of these individual “tests” had their own issues - not least because Mark didn’t adhere to any sort of testing methodology, but because he was looking for a result - and edited his tests until he was sure of it.
Interestingly, many folks on X were quick to spot that Mark had been previously sponsored by Google to use a Pixel phone - but was using an iPhone to record within the vehicle - which he had edited to look like a Pixel phone for some reason. This, alongside other poor edits and cuts, led many, including us, to believe that Mark’s testing was edited and flawed.
Flaw 1: Autopilot, Not FSD
Let’s take a look at the first flaw. Mark tested Autopilot - not FSD. Autopilot is a driving aid for lane centering and speed control - and is not the least bit autonomous. It cannot take evasive maneuvers outside the lane it is in, but it can use the full stable of Tesla’s extensive features, including Automatic Emergency Braking, Forward Collision Warnings, Blind Spot Collision Warnings, and Lane Departure Avoidance.
On the other hand, FSD is allowed and capable of departing the lane to avoid a collision. That means that even if Autopilot tried to stop and was unable to, it would still impact whatever obstacle was in front of it - unlike FSD.
As we continue with the FSD argument - remember that Autopilot is running on a 5-year-old software stack that hasn’t seen updates. Sadly, this is the reality of Tesla not updating the Autopilot stack for quite some time. It seems likely that they’ll eventually bring a trimmed-down version of FSD to replace Autopilot, but that hasn’t happened yet.
Mark later admitted that he used Autopilot rather than FSD because “You cannot engage FSD without putting in a destination,” which is also incorrect. It is possible to engage FSD without a destination, but FSD chooses its own route. Where it goes isn’t within your control until you select a destination, but it tends to navigate through roads in a generally forward direction.
The whole situation, from not having FSD on the vehicle to not knowing you can activate FSD without a destination, suggests Mark is rather unfamiliar with FSD and likely has limited exposure to the feature.
Let’s keep in mind that FSD costs $99 for a single month, so there’s no excuse for him not using it in this video.
Flaw 2: Cancelling AP and Pushing Pedals
Many people on X also followed up with reports that Mark was pushing the pedals or pulling on the steering wheel. When you tap on the brake pedal or pull or jerk the steering wheel too much, Autopilot will disengage. For some reason, during each of his “tests,” Mark closely held the steering wheel of the vehicle.
This comes off as rather odd - at the extremely short distances he was enabling AP at, there wouldn’t be enough time for a wheel nag or takeover warning required. In addition, we can visibly see him pulling the steering wheel before “impact” in multiple tests.
Over on X, techAU breaks it down excellently on a per-test basis. Mark did not engage AP in several tests, and he potentially used the accelerator pedal during the first test - which means that Automatic Emergency Braking is overridden. In another test, Mark admitted to using the pedals.
Flaw 3: Luminar Sponsored
This video was potentially sponsored by a LiDAR manufacturer - Luminar. Although Mark says that this isn’t the case. Interestingly, Luminar makes LiDAR rigs for Tesla - who uses them to test ground truth accuracy for FSD. Just as interesting, Luminar’s Earnings Call was also coming up at the time of the video’s posting.
Luminar had linked the video at the top of their homepage but has since taken it down. While Mark did not admit to being sponsored by Luminar, there appear to be more distinct conflicts of interest, as Mark’s charity foundation has received donations from Luminar’s CEO.
Given the positivity of the results for Luminar, it seems that the video had been well-designed and well-timed to take advantage of the current wave of negativity against Tesla, while also driving up Luminar’s stock.
Flaw 4: Vision-based Depth Estimation
The next flaw to address is the fact that humans and machines can judge depth using vision. On X, user Abdou ran the “invisible wall” through a monocular depth estimation model (DepthAnythingV2) - one that uses a single image with a single angle. This fairly simplified model can estimate the distance and depth of items inside an image - and it was able to differentiate the fake wall from its surroundings easily.
Tesla’s FSD uses a far more advanced multi-angle, multi-image tool that stitches together and creates a 3D model of the environment around it and then analyzes the result for decision-making and prediction. Tesla’s more refined and complex model would be far more able to easily detect such an obstacle - and these innovations are far more recent than the 5-year-old Autopilot stack.
While detecting distances is more difficult in a single image, once you have multiple images, such as in a video feed, you can more easily decipher between objects and determine distances by tracking the size of each pixel as the object approaches. Essentially, if all pixels are growing at a constant rate, then that means it’s a flat object — like a wall.
Case in Point: Chinese FSD Testers
To make the case stronger - some Chinese FSD testers took to the streets and put up a semi-transparent sheet - which the vehicle refused to drive through or drive near. It would immediately attempt to maneuver away each time the test was engaged - and refused to advance with a pedestrian standing in the road.
Would FSD hit a transparent film wall? This test showed it just avoids it.
Thanks to Douyin and Aaron Li for putting this together, as it makes an excellent basic example of how FSD would handle such a situation in real life.
Flaw 5: The Follow-Up Video and Interview
Following the community backlash, Mark released a video on X, hoping to resolve the community’s concerns. However, this also backfired. It turned out Mark’s second video was of an entirely different take than the one in the original video - this was at a different speed, angle, and time of initiation.
Mark then followed up with an interview with Philip DeFranco (below), where he said that there were multiple takes and that he used Autopilot because he didn’t know that FSD could be engaged without a destination. He also answered here that Luminar supposedly did not pay him for the video - even with their big showing as the “leader in LiDAR technology” throughout the video.
Putting It All Together
Overall, Mark’s video was rather duplicitous - he recorded multiple takes to get what he needed, prevented Tesla’s software from functioning properly by intervening, and used an outdated feature set that isn’t FSD - like his video is titled.
Upcoming Videos
Several other video creators are already working to replicate what Mark “tried” to test in this video.
To get a complete picture, we need to see unedited takes, even if they’re included at the end of the video. The full vehicle specifications should also be disclosed. Additionally, the test should be conducted using Tesla’s latest hardware and software—specifically, an HW4 vehicle running FSD v13.2.8.
In Mark’s video, Autopilot was engaged just seconds before impact. However, for a proper evaluation, FSD should be activated much earlier, allowing it time to react and, if capable, stop before hitting the wall.
A wave of new videos is likely on the way—stay tuned, and we’ll be sure to cover the best ones.
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