Tesla Earnings Call: Top Investor Questions and What to Expect

Render of a possible Model 2 approved by Elon Musk in December 2023 commenting on X “Good Design”

@Teslaconomics

Tuesday, April 23, marks one of the most expected events for Elon Musk-led company Tesla. No, it is not yet the unveil of the Robotaxi — which is planned for August 8th — but the first quarter earnings results followed by a 1-hour earnings call answering questions from analysts and shareholders.

As of today, more than 2,300 queries have been submitted by both individual and institutional investors using the Say Technologies Platform. A total of over 8,680 shareholders have engaged in the Q&A sessions, representing approximately 7.13 million shares.

Top Investor Questions

Key areas of interest among shareholders on the Say Platform include updates on Tesla's next-generation platform, advancements in Robotaxi development, progress on Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, and the scaling up of production for the 4680 cells.

The most prominent queries, based on votes, center around the 4680 cells initiative, followed by inquiries regarding the Optimus project and updates on Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, particularly in anticipation of the upcoming Robotaxi reveal scheduled for August. Here’s the list of the most up-voted questions.

1. What is the status of 4680? What is the current output?

2. What is the current status of Optimus? Are they currently performing any factory tasks? When do you expect to start mass production?

3. What is Tesla's current assessment of the pathway toward regulatory approval for unsupervised FSD in the US, and how should we think about the appropriate safety threshold compared to human drivers?

4. Following Tesla's Robotaxi unveil on 8/8, what is the realistic timeline for launching a revenue generating robotaxi network?

5. What is the progress on the cheaper next generation vehicle?

6. Can we make FSD transfer permanent? (until FSD is fully delivered / Level 5 autonomy)

7. Have any of the legacy automakers contacted Tesla about possibly licensing FSD in the future?

8. What is gating the production ramp at Lathrop? Where do you see the Megapack run rate by the end of the year?

Source: Say Platform as of April 20, 9AM ET

4680 Cells

The top-voted question, currently tallying 1,500 votes and representing 3.3 million shares, seeks insights into the development status and specifics of Tesla's 4680 battery cells.

In late January 24, Tesla said it was "running one production line and one assembly line" with "four more to be installed in the third quarter" adding that it expected "to ramp order from our suppliers". 

At the time, the world's largest EV manufacturer said the 4680 production was "ahead of the ramp, with weeks of finished cells in inventory". Six weeks later, in mid-March, Tesla said it produced over 1,000 Cybertrucks’ worth of 4680 cells at its Giga Texas. Given that each Cybertruck uses 1,366 4680 cells, Tesla produced in that week 1.366 million 4680 cells.

Optimus 

The second most popular query, trailing closely behind the first by a margin of 3.2 million versus 3.3 million shares represented, pertains to an update from Tesla's CEO regarding the status of Tesla's robot, Optimus.

Elon Musk garnered attention last January when he shared a video showcasing Optimus within a Tesla factory, demonstrating the robot folding a shirt. The video swiftly gained traction, prompting inquiries, including one from Marques Brownlee, one of the most popular YouTubers, who queried Musk: "Is this video authentic or computer-generated?”. The question was not answered by Elon. 

Approximately 30 minutes later, Musk clarified that Optimus is currently unable to autonomously fold a shirt, hinting at future developments. He asserted that it will be capable of doing so "certainly," further noting that it won't be limited to a fixed environment, such as a table with a single shirt.

Optimus folds a shirt pic.twitter.com/3F5o3jVLq1

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 15, 2024

One month later, Elon posted a new video of Optimus walking faster and in a closer human-like way when compared to the previous walkdown video posted on the last day of January.

After these developments, Tesla shareholders and enthusiasts have been questioning Musk for a precise timeline of when these robots can support the manufacturer and turn it faster and more efficient.

Robotaxi + $25k Model

According to three sources and company messages seen by Reuters in early April, Tesla was abandoning its plan to launch the $25,000 model. Yet, Tesla‘s CEO Elon Musk quickly dismissed the report without specifying any further details. 

Later in the day, Elon Musk announced that Tesla is set to unveil its highly anticipated robotaxi on August 8th which is expected to be constructed upon Tesla's next-generation vehicle platform.

Two weeks ago, Tesla Chief Designer Franz von Holzhausen commented on the rumors saying "I would just say stay tuned. Don’t always believe what you read".

Franz @woodhaus2 on the new rumored $25,000 future Tesla pic.twitter.com/eAK7u3wxUI

— Zack (@BLKMDL3) April 7, 2024

In recent weeks, scrutiny has intensified among shareholders and enthusiasts regarding the accuracy of reports surrounding Tesla's $25,000 model, and whether it has been canceled or deprioritized as the company shifts its focus towards autonomous driving technology.

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives, in a note released on Friday, remarked that the debate between the Model 2 and Robotaxi has gained significant attention, with investors eagerly anticipating an announcement from Tesla CEO Elon Musk regarding the Model 2 within the next 12 to 18 months.

Deutsche Bank analyst Emanuel Rosner echoed similar sentiments earlier in the week, expressing a belief in the "high likelihood" of a delay in the Model 2 release, citing Tesla's strategic pivot towards Robotaxi technology. Rosner emphasized that the firm's Buy rating hinged on the arrival of Tesla's next-generation vehicle, originally anticipated for late next year.

On Friday, Tesla's stock plunged to a new 15-month low of $145.05 per share during pre-market trading, resulting in a market capitalization dip below $480 billion.

Earlier this week, Tesla expanded its 0 percent interest financing program to the German market, mirroring a similar initiative launched in China earlier this month. This financing option is now available for the Model Y Long Range Dual Motor or Performance variants in Germany, with the Performance model starting at €59,990 and the Long Range dual motor variant priced at €54,990.

In a significant internal announcement on Monday, Tesla disclosed a workforce reduction exceeding 10%, affecting over 14,000 employees globally.

Despite Tesla's recent announcement of the production of 433,371 vehicles, with 386,783 delivered, the figures fell short of Wall Street's expectations of 431,000 units delivered.

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Tesla Updates FSD From V12.3.6 to V12.5 on Update 2024.44

Not a Tesla App

Tesla maintains two primary software branches: the main feature branch and the FSD branch. In general, the FSD branch lags behind on new features pushed to the main branch but provides a more recent FSD version.

However, now Tesla is updating the main branch to a much more recent version of FSD.

Current FSD Build & Shadow Mode

Nowadays, the main branch always includes an older but stable build of FSD. It’s been on FSD V12.3.6 since July 2024. So, if you subscribe to FSD in North America, this is the FSD version you’ll receive until you get added to the FSD track.

Even if you don’t subscribe to or have purchased FSD, your vehicle has v12.3.6 on it. That includes vehicles in regions where FSD isn’t available for general use, such as Europe and China. In those cases, FSD runs in Shadow Mode, providing training data to Tesla if you’ve agreed to their data privacy policies. So Tesla is always analyzing what the vehicle would do compared to what the driver does. When there are contradictions, these are the clips and data Tesla will want to analyze.

FSD V12.5.4.2 on Main Branch

For the first time in five months, Tesla has now updated the baseline version of FSD in the main branch. The new version included with 2024.44 updates is FSD v12.5.4.2. This Tesla is updating the baseline FSD version to FSD V12.5.4.2

FSD 12.5 includes many features for a much smoother experience compared to FSD 12.3.6. Many users will appreciate that it gets rid of the steering wheel nag and instead relies on the cabin camera to provide real-time driver monitoring. This version also includes support for sunglasses with driver monitoring. It’ll be a big upgrade for anyone coming from FSD 12.3.6.

It's always a good thing when Tesla updates the baseline FSD version—that means that Tesla is confident that this new baseline is considerably safer and will continue to train the fleet against it.

What Update Am I Getting?

If you’re already on FSD V12.5.4.2, you’ll likely remain on that FSD build unless V13.3 manages to make its way to the public as Tesla originally planned, but that’s unlikely to happen before the Thanksgiving holiday. In all likelihood, you’ll be getting update 2024.44, which will give you some additional Tesla features while keeping you on the same FSD version.

For those who are already on 2024.44 - if you subscribe now, you’ll have V12.5.4.2 enabled on your vehicle.

If you have a Cybertruck, then you’ll receive update 2024.39.5 with FSD V12.5.5.3. They’re on a unique build for the moment, and this will likely be the case until Tesla acquires enough training data from the Cybertruck fleet.

What About FSD V12.5.6? V13?

FSD V12.5.6 is currently the build being provided to early access testers who have AI4 vehicles. It has new features like Driver Profiles, better lane change decisions, improved Max Speed Offset, and a few others. Tesla last pushed an update to FSD 12.5.6.2 in early November with some improvements to Driver Profiles.

That build is likely going to be deprecated as Tesla gets closer to releasing FSD v13, which they showed off at the We, Robot event back in October. The AI4 Model Ys and Cybercabs at We, Robot were running an early V13 build/ 

The updated FSD roadmap provided at the end of October mentioned that V13.3 will be the build that will make its way to customers sometime around Thanksgiving, but so far, no employee vehicles have been spotted with FSD v13.

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Tesla Cybertruck: Puddle Lights, FSD/Powershare, Mars? [Update: FSD Now Available in Canada]

Not a Tesla App

The Cybertruck is having an eventful November. Just last week, we shared the news that Tesla isn’t offering their in-house wrap service for the Cybertruck anymore; the Foundation Series is now available in inventory in select US locations, Crossbars have arrived, and faster charging is around the corner. Now there’s even more to discuss about the stainless steel beast.

Projection Puddle Lights

Like the recently launched puddle lights for the Model 3 and Model Y, Tesla has introduced a set of add-on Projector Puddle Lights for the Cybertruck. These Cybertruck-specific ones go for $75 USD, or $105 CAD and are available in both the Canadian and US Tesla stores.

However, these don’t have the Tesla wordmark - instead, they feature the iconic Cybertruck symbol and, in our opinion, look even nicer. Here’s to hoping Tesla also introduces a set with the graffiti-style Cybertruck wordmark.

Powershare in Canada

While the Foundation Series Cybertruck has been getting delivered in Canada since November 7th, there was no news on Powershare being supported due to regulatory constraints. On the 20th, Foundation Series owners in Canada began to receive emails to get their Powershare installs started through Tesla’s official installer - Qmerit.

More to follow on pricing and the process as we receive our Canadian quote from Qmerit soon.

FSD in Canada

The Cybertruck Program Manager, Siddhant Awasthi, confirmed that with Powershare now becoming available, FSD for the Cybertruck in Canada will also become available soon. Canadian trucks shipped with a factory software build that didn’t include FSD, but did include TACC and stoplight/traffic control.

Early this morning Tesla began rolling out a new version of FSD 12.5.5.3 for the Cybertruck, which is update 2024.39.5. Will this be the version that rolls out in Canada?

Update: Yesterday, Tesla started rolling out FSD on the Cybertruck in Canada for the first time. The update being rolled out is update 2024.39.5, which not only features the latest FSD available on the Cybertruck, version 12.5.5.3, but it also includes all the features update 2024.38, which includes the huge Sentry Mode improvements that reduce power consumption by about 40%.

First Mars Payload

Following Integrated Flight Test 6 for SpaceX’s Starship, Elon Musk confirmed that uncrewed Starships are likely to begin making their way to Mars in about 2 years. You’re probably going to ask what’s going to be in those Starships - that’s what Brett Winston on X asked as well. Elon confirmed that Cybertrucks and Optimus robots will be among some of the first items landing on Mars.

That’s a ton of awesome news for Cybertruck, and there’s absolutely going to be more around the corner, especially as we await the big Tesla Holiday Update. While you wait, why not take a look at our Holiday Update Wishlists?

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