In case you missed it, Tesla’s first-quarter numbers came in, and they have Wall Street running for the hills, with critics cheering: “I told you so.”
The company reported its first quarterly drop in deliveries in nearly four years, a moment some have termed a stark deviation from its historical trajectory of relentless growth. However, it’s worth delving deeper to understand the factors at play.
Economic and Competitive Landscape
First and foremost, the broader economic landscape cannot be overlooked. With rising interest rates dampening consumer spending power, the cost of living soaring, and the global economy showing signs of strain, the automotive sector, especially the EV market, has not been immune to these headwinds. Therefore, Tesla's sales performance this quarter cannot be viewed in isolation but as part of a larger economic tableau that has also left its mark on other sectors. The company also expected this, which prepared investors for a difficult year during the last earnings call.
Moreover, the competitive landscape has been intensifying. BYD, Tesla's closest competitor and a powerhouse in its own right, briefly overtook Tesla in sales in the last quarter of 2023, only to experience its own significant sales drop of 43% in the first quarter of 2024. This parallel trajectory underscores a shared challenge: navigating a market that is becoming increasingly saturated, competitive, and sensitive to pricing dynamics.
Musk's Commentary
In the wake of Tesla's reported delivery numbers, Elon Musk took to his platform X, which he has 180 million followers, to address critics directly. Musk's response to investment analyst Ross Gerber's continued criticism, stating, "He’s such an idiot that he can’t even tell he’s an idiot," defending Tesla's position by highlighting BYD's significant sales drop and asserting, "This was a tough quarter for everyone."
He’s such an idiot that he can’t even tell he’s an idiot.
BYD sales dropped by 42% from last quarter. This was a tough quarter for everyone.
Amidst this, Tesla's disproportionate share of media scrutiny makes these numbers seem even worse. For example, Reuters's story on BYD's 43% decline in deliveries was less than 400 words, while Tesla’s miss on deliveries was more than 800 words. The company's every move, statement, and quarterly performance is magnified, analyzed, and debated, creating a narrative battleground that extends far beyond the confines of financial spreadsheets, production lines, or even fair play.
Tesla’s Technological Innovations Extend Beyond the Car
Tesla's commitment to pushing the boundaries of technology remains unwavering, especially in the realm of Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities. The company's confidence in this revolutionary technology is apparent in a new offer of a complimentary one-month trial of its FSD software.
This bold move underscores Tesla's belief in the transformative potential of its autonomous driving technology and its readiness to showcase this innovation to a wider audience, inviting them to experience the future of driving firsthand.
Moreover, Musk's pinned post on X offers a visionary glimpse into Tesla's future, emphasizing the transformative potential of Tesla's Full Self-Driving technology.
Most people still have no idea how crushingly good Tesla FSD will get. It will be superhuman to such a degree that it will seem strange in the future that humans drove cars, even while exhausted and drunk!
The Future of Tesla and the EV Market
Tesla's strategic decisions, including price adjustments and the anticipation of a slower growth year, reflect a calculated approach to these challenges. The company's focus on ramping production for the updated Model 3 and navigating unforeseen disruptions, such as the Red Sea conflict and an arson attack at its Berlin factory, speaks to the operational hurdles it faces amid a complex global environment.
For Tesla and BYD, this period is a chapter in a longer saga of adaptation, resilience, and relentless pursuit of a future where electric vehicles are at the heart of global mobility. As the dust settles on this quarter's developments, the focus inevitably shifts to the strategies, innovations, and decisions that will define the next phase of growth for these electric vehicle titans.
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Tesla maintains two primary software branches: the main feature branch and the FSD branch. In general, the FSD branch lags behind on new features pushed to the main branch but provides a more recent FSD version.
However, now Tesla is updating the main branch to a much more recent version of FSD.
Current FSD Build & Shadow Mode
Nowadays, the main branch always includes an older but stable build of FSD. It’s been on FSD V12.3.6 since July 2024. So, if you subscribe to FSD in North America, this is the FSD version you’ll receive until you get added to the FSD track.
Even if you don’t subscribe to or have purchased FSD, your vehicle has v12.3.6 on it. That includes vehicles in regions where FSD isn’t available for general use, such as Europe and China. In those cases, FSD runs in Shadow Mode, providing training data to Tesla if you’ve agreed to their data privacy policies. So Tesla is always analyzing what the vehicle would do compared to what the driver does. When there are contradictions, these are the clips and data Tesla will want to analyze.
FSD V12.5.4.2 on Main Branch
For the first time in five months, Tesla has now updated the baseline version of FSD in the main branch. The new version included with 2024.44 updates is FSD v12.5.4.2. This Tesla is updating the baseline FSD version to FSD V12.5.4.2
FSD 12.5 includes many features for a much smoother experience compared to FSD 12.3.6. Many users will appreciate that it gets rid of the steering wheel nag and instead relies on the cabin camera to provide real-time driver monitoring. This version also includes support for sunglasses with driver monitoring. It’ll be a big upgrade for anyone coming from FSD 12.3.6.
It's always a good thing when Tesla updates the baseline FSD version—that means that Tesla is confident that this new baseline is considerably safer and will continue to train the fleet against it.
What Update Am I Getting?
If you’re already on FSD V12.5.4.2, you’ll likely remain on that FSD build unless V13.3 manages to make its way to the public as Tesla originally planned, but that’s unlikely to happen before the Thanksgiving holiday. In all likelihood, you’ll be getting update 2024.44, which will give you some additional Tesla features while keeping you on the same FSD version.
For those who are already on 2024.44 - if you subscribe now, you’ll have V12.5.4.2 enabled on your vehicle.
If you have a Cybertruck, then you’ll receive update 2024.39.5 with FSD V12.5.5.3. They’re on a unique build for the moment, and this will likely be the case until Tesla acquires enough training data from the Cybertruck fleet.
The Cybertruck is having an eventful November. Just last week, we shared the news that Tesla isn’t offering their in-house wrap service for the Cybertruck anymore; the Foundation Series is now available in inventory in select US locations, Crossbars have arrived, and faster charging is around the corner. Now there’s even more to discuss about the stainless steel beast.
Projection Puddle Lights
Like the recently launched puddle lights for the Model 3 and Model Y, Tesla has introduced a set of add-on Projector Puddle Lights for the Cybertruck. These Cybertruck-specific ones go for $75 USD, or $105 CAD and are available in both the Canadian and US Tesla stores.
However, these don’t have the Tesla wordmark - instead, they feature the iconic Cybertruck symbol and, in our opinion, look even nicer. Here’s to hoping Tesla also introduces a set with the graffiti-style Cybertruck wordmark.
Powershare in Canada
While the Foundation Series Cybertruck has been getting delivered in Canada since November 7th, there was no news on Powershare being supported due to regulatory constraints. On the 20th, Foundation Series owners in Canada began to receive emails to get their Powershare installs started through Tesla’s official installer - Qmerit.
More to follow on pricing and the process as we receive our Canadian quote from Qmerit soon.
FSD in Canada
The Cybertruck Program Manager, Siddhant Awasthi, confirmed that with Powershare now becoming available, FSD for the Cybertruck in Canada will also become available soon. Canadian trucks shipped with a factory software build that didn’t include FSD, but did include TACC and stoplight/traffic control.
Early this morning Tesla began rolling out a new version of FSD 12.5.5.3 for the Cybertruck, which is update 2024.39.5. Will this be the version that rolls out in Canada?
Update: Yesterday, Tesla started rolling out FSD on the Cybertruck in Canada for the first time. The update being rolled out is update 2024.39.5, which not only features the latest FSD available on the Cybertruck, version 12.5.5.3, but it also includes all the features update 2024.38, which includes the huge Sentry Mode improvements that reduce power consumption by about 40%.
Following Integrated Flight Test 6 for SpaceX’s Starship, Elon Musk confirmed that uncrewed Starships are likely to begin making their way to Mars in about 2 years. You’re probably going to ask what’s going to be in those Starships - that’s what Brett Winston on X asked as well. Elon confirmed that Cybertrucks and Optimus robots will be among some of the first items landing on Mars.
That’s a ton of awesome news for Cybertruck, and there’s absolutely going to be more around the corner, especially as we await the big Tesla Holiday Update. While you wait, why not take a look at our Holiday Update Wishlists?
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