In case you missed it, Tesla’s first-quarter numbers came in, and they have Wall Street running for the hills, with critics cheering: “I told you so.”
The company reported its first quarterly drop in deliveries in nearly four years, a moment some have termed a stark deviation from its historical trajectory of relentless growth. However, it’s worth delving deeper to understand the factors at play.
Economic and Competitive Landscape
First and foremost, the broader economic landscape cannot be overlooked. With rising interest rates dampening consumer spending power, the cost of living soaring, and the global economy showing signs of strain, the automotive sector, especially the EV market, has not been immune to these headwinds. Therefore, Tesla's sales performance this quarter cannot be viewed in isolation but as part of a larger economic tableau that has also left its mark on other sectors. The company also expected this, which prepared investors for a difficult year during the last earnings call.
Moreover, the competitive landscape has been intensifying. BYD, Tesla's closest competitor and a powerhouse in its own right, briefly overtook Tesla in sales in the last quarter of 2023, only to experience its own significant sales drop of 43% in the first quarter of 2024. This parallel trajectory underscores a shared challenge: navigating a market that is becoming increasingly saturated, competitive, and sensitive to pricing dynamics.
Musk's Commentary
In the wake of Tesla's reported delivery numbers, Elon Musk took to his platform X, which he has 180 million followers, to address critics directly. Musk's response to investment analyst Ross Gerber's continued criticism, stating, "He’s such an idiot that he can’t even tell he’s an idiot," defending Tesla's position by highlighting BYD's significant sales drop and asserting, "This was a tough quarter for everyone."
He’s such an idiot that he can’t even tell he’s an idiot.
BYD sales dropped by 42% from last quarter. This was a tough quarter for everyone.
Amidst this, Tesla's disproportionate share of media scrutiny makes these numbers seem even worse. For example, Reuters's story on BYD's 43% decline in deliveries was less than 400 words, while Tesla’s miss on deliveries was more than 800 words. The company's every move, statement, and quarterly performance is magnified, analyzed, and debated, creating a narrative battleground that extends far beyond the confines of financial spreadsheets, production lines, or even fair play.
Tesla’s Technological Innovations Extend Beyond the Car
Tesla's commitment to pushing the boundaries of technology remains unwavering, especially in the realm of Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities. The company's confidence in this revolutionary technology is apparent in a new offer of a complimentary one-month trial of its FSD software.
This bold move underscores Tesla's belief in the transformative potential of its autonomous driving technology and its readiness to showcase this innovation to a wider audience, inviting them to experience the future of driving firsthand.
Moreover, Musk's pinned post on X offers a visionary glimpse into Tesla's future, emphasizing the transformative potential of Tesla's Full Self-Driving technology.
Most people still have no idea how crushingly good Tesla FSD will get. It will be superhuman to such a degree that it will seem strange in the future that humans drove cars, even while exhausted and drunk!
The Future of Tesla and the EV Market
Tesla's strategic decisions, including price adjustments and the anticipation of a slower growth year, reflect a calculated approach to these challenges. The company's focus on ramping production for the updated Model 3 and navigating unforeseen disruptions, such as the Red Sea conflict and an arson attack at its Berlin factory, speaks to the operational hurdles it faces amid a complex global environment.
For Tesla and BYD, this period is a chapter in a longer saga of adaptation, resilience, and relentless pursuit of a future where electric vehicles are at the heart of global mobility. As the dust settles on this quarter's developments, the focus inevitably shifts to the strategies, innovations, and decisions that will define the next phase of growth for these electric vehicle titans.
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It was a rainy April 1st when a news-searching author went on a delve into the depths of April Fools to find fact from falsehood. And while we found a lot of fantastic jokes, we also found some good ideas.
So, with a shoutout to MarcoRP on X, whose April Fool’s Joke gave us a good run for our money for a couple of minutes, we thought to ourselves - what would a Cybercab Charging Station / Cleaning Hub really look like?
Cybercab Wireless Charging Sites
Now, before continuing, we’d like to point out that the image up top is a joke from Marco - it isn’t an accurate or real site map submission from Tesla. However, it gave us the impetus to think critically about what is required for a Robotaxi fleet, based primarily on the Cybercab, to be able to service a city.
Requirements
Tesla will likely need to charge a small fleet of Cybercabs at a single time and in a single place. That means that the site needs to be large enough to cover a major metro area while also still being compact enough to not cost too much money to build out.
In addition, we need to factor in charge times. The Cybercab is likely to launch with a battery around 50 kWh, which will result in a range of approximately 300 miles. With that much range, the average Cybercab may not need to charge more than once or at all during daytime shifts, so instead, most of the vehicles will charge overnight.
MarcoRP
Math and Charge Times
The overnight charging means that most of these vehicles could be charged slowly. When we did some back-of-the-napkin math last year, we determined that Tesla’s wireless charger will likely peak around 17 kW (for comparison, Tesla’s Wall Connector at 32 amps charges at about 7 kW). If we scale Tesla’s wireless charger down slightly to 10 kW, accounting for some energy loss and the potential size of the site, that means a Cybercab will be able to charge in about 5 hours.
Tesla’s upcoming V4 Supercharger unit can currently handle 1.5MW per cabinet, but this slower-speed charging is A/C, not DC, which means there is a step-down loss of about 3-5%. Let’s make that a comfortable 10% for any other overages, but we can estimate around 1.35MW of power. That 1.3MW will easily handle charging up to 100 Cybercabs at once - all wirelessly, using Tesla’s unique beam-forming and beam-steering technology to keep efficiency high at every single stall.
Within about 5 hours, a whole fleet of 100 Cybercabs could be charged overnight when electricity rates are cheaper and still be out in time for the morning commute.
While this is all just hypothetical, it really does make sense that Tesla will be establishing these sites that won’t require much space or a ton of energy.
Tesla recently curtained off a large section of the parking garage at Giga Texas, as well as some of their chargers on the eastern end of the facility, leading us to believe they may just be testing this at scale internally.
There’s a lot to look forward to with Tesla’s V4 Supercharger deployment coming this year and with Robotaxi launching in just a couple of months.
Tesla released its Q1 2025 delivery and production numbers this morning, reporting 336,681 vehicles delivered and 362,615 produced—marking the company’s weakest quarter since 2022. Deliveries declined 13% year-over-year and fell well short of Wall Street estimates, which ranged from 360,000 to 370,000. Some analysts had forecast as many as 407,000 units.
Despite the shortfall, Tesla stock is actually up about 4% this morning, not only suggesting the market had already priced in weaker performance, but that this may be seen as the low point for the company. Tesla began delivering its refreshed Model Y in March, and production across all four Gigafactories was impacted by several weeks of downtime as Tesla retooled lines to accommodate the newer model. However, there’s no doubt that there is some brand impact from Elon Musk.
Comparing Numbers
Most of the deliveries—323,800 units—came from the Model 3 and Model Y lineup, while the “Other Models” category (including the Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X) accounted for 12,881 deliveries. That’s a 31% drop for Model 3/Y and a sharper 45% drop for the Other Models category compared to the previous quarter. However, comparing it to a more applicable Q1 2024, these numbers are only down about 13% for the Model 3/Y and down about 24% for the Model S/X and Cybertruck.
In terms of production, Tesla built 345,454 Model 3/Y vehicles and 17,161 from its “Other Models” line. The company attributed the production drop to the Model Y changeover but said the ramp is “going well.” This still leaves a large gap between production and delivery numbers, although they may not be as large as many had feared.
Q1 2025
Q1 2024
Q4 2024
Model 3/Y Deliveries
323,800
369,783
471,930
Model 3/Y Production
345,454
412,376
436,718
Other Models Deliveries
12,881
17,027
23,640
Other Models Production
17,161
20,995
22,727
Total Deliveries
336,681
386,810
495,570
Total Production
362,615
433,371
459,445
Cybertruck
One major weak point in Tesla’s numbers seems to be Cybertruck deliveries. While Tesla previously expected the Cybertruck to sell more than 250k units per year, we’re already seeing a decline in numbers. This is likely due to several factors, including the higher-than-expected price point of the truck, the unavailability of the RWD model, and the Cybertruck’s polarizing design, which may attract unwanted attention right now.
While the Cybertruck was ramping up production in 2024, making the lower numbers reasonable, the deliveries for Q1 2025 dropped drastically compared to the previous quarter. Cybertruck deliveries are estimated to be in the 5- 6k unit range for the quarter.
The good news to take away here is that the Single Motor variant of the Cybertruck appears to be nearing release. The price of the RWD version is expected to be about $60k USD before any incentives.
Q1 Earnings Call
Tesla announced their quarterly numbers this morning and posted on social media that they’ll live stream their Earnings Call on April 22nd.
This post was later edited to change “Q1 Earnings Call” to “Q1 Company Update.” It’s not clear whether there’s any significance in this change, but it could mean that Tesla has more to announce during the call.
The Company Update will occur on April 22nd at 2:30 PM PT / 5:30 PM ET. The standard Q&A session with executives and Musk is expected to follow the release of additional financial results for the quarter.
Tesla is set to launch its long-awaited Robotaxi service in June, and a cheaper, mass-market model is also planned for this year. With delivery numbers coming in soft and the refreshed Model Y just hitting the road, all eyes will be on forward-looking commentary during the update.
![Video Reveals the Cybertruck's Unique User Interface [Video]](https://www.notateslaapp.com/images/news/2023/cybertruck-ui-1_300w.jpg)
