In case you missed it, Tesla’s first-quarter numbers came in, and they have Wall Street running for the hills, with critics cheering: “I told you so.”
The company reported its first quarterly drop in deliveries in nearly four years, a moment some have termed a stark deviation from its historical trajectory of relentless growth. However, it’s worth delving deeper to understand the factors at play.
Economic and Competitive Landscape
First and foremost, the broader economic landscape cannot be overlooked. With rising interest rates dampening consumer spending power, the cost of living soaring, and the global economy showing signs of strain, the automotive sector, especially the EV market, has not been immune to these headwinds. Therefore, Tesla's sales performance this quarter cannot be viewed in isolation but as part of a larger economic tableau that has also left its mark on other sectors. The company also expected this, which prepared investors for a difficult year during the last earnings call.
Moreover, the competitive landscape has been intensifying. BYD, Tesla's closest competitor and a powerhouse in its own right, briefly overtook Tesla in sales in the last quarter of 2023, only to experience its own significant sales drop of 43% in the first quarter of 2024. This parallel trajectory underscores a shared challenge: navigating a market that is becoming increasingly saturated, competitive, and sensitive to pricing dynamics.
Musk's Commentary
In the wake of Tesla's reported delivery numbers, Elon Musk took to his platform X, which he has 180 million followers, to address critics directly. Musk's response to investment analyst Ross Gerber's continued criticism, stating, "He’s such an idiot that he can’t even tell he’s an idiot," defending Tesla's position by highlighting BYD's significant sales drop and asserting, "This was a tough quarter for everyone."
He’s such an idiot that he can’t even tell he’s an idiot.
BYD sales dropped by 42% from last quarter. This was a tough quarter for everyone.
Amidst this, Tesla's disproportionate share of media scrutiny makes these numbers seem even worse. For example, Reuters's story on BYD's 43% decline in deliveries was less than 400 words, while Tesla’s miss on deliveries was more than 800 words. The company's every move, statement, and quarterly performance is magnified, analyzed, and debated, creating a narrative battleground that extends far beyond the confines of financial spreadsheets, production lines, or even fair play.
Tesla’s Technological Innovations Extend Beyond the Car
Tesla's commitment to pushing the boundaries of technology remains unwavering, especially in the realm of Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities. The company's confidence in this revolutionary technology is apparent in a new offer of a complimentary one-month trial of its FSD software.
This bold move underscores Tesla's belief in the transformative potential of its autonomous driving technology and its readiness to showcase this innovation to a wider audience, inviting them to experience the future of driving firsthand.
Moreover, Musk's pinned post on X offers a visionary glimpse into Tesla's future, emphasizing the transformative potential of Tesla's Full Self-Driving technology.
Most people still have no idea how crushingly good Tesla FSD will get. It will be superhuman to such a degree that it will seem strange in the future that humans drove cars, even while exhausted and drunk!
The Future of Tesla and the EV Market
Tesla's strategic decisions, including price adjustments and the anticipation of a slower growth year, reflect a calculated approach to these challenges. The company's focus on ramping production for the updated Model 3 and navigating unforeseen disruptions, such as the Red Sea conflict and an arson attack at its Berlin factory, speaks to the operational hurdles it faces amid a complex global environment.
For Tesla and BYD, this period is a chapter in a longer saga of adaptation, resilience, and relentless pursuit of a future where electric vehicles are at the heart of global mobility. As the dust settles on this quarter's developments, the focus inevitably shifts to the strategies, innovations, and decisions that will define the next phase of growth for these electric vehicle titans.
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Tesla signaled its intention to launch its first Robotaxi network in Austin, Texas, with company-owned and operated vehicles, back in January. This network will be Tesla’s first foray into truly autonomous vehicles - ones that aren’t being directly supervised by a driver. Later in February, Tesla’s executive team confirmed that the plans were on track for the launch of the Austin network both on X and during several interviews that they participated in.
At the end of February, we also found out that Tesla has applied for a Supervised Robotaxi license in California, where the network will also launch, but with safety drivers in place.
This is an ambitious plan, but FSD has really come a long way in the past year. FSD V12 was a massive step forward from V11, and V13 has made the experience smoother and safer than ever before. FSD V14 is expected to be another big step up with auto-regressive transformers and audio input.
Still on Track
Now, Elon has tripled down on the fact that Tesla will be launching their first autonomous robotaxi network in Austin - just two months away at this point. It seems that Tesla is fully set to launch their first fully unsupervised self-driving vehicles that will carry paying passengers in June.
Additional Cities
The best part is that Elon also confirmed that they’re targeting robotaxi networks launching in many cities within the United States by the end of this year. However, remember that this will be a Tesla-run network at first - Tesla owners won’t be able to add their vehicles to the Robotaxi fleet right away.
Adding Customer Vehicles
It will take some time before Tesla meets their strict internal safety requirements before it lets customers add their own vehicles to the network. Tesla’s executive team mentioned that they intend to let owners add their own vehicles to the fleet sometime in 2026. This happens to be the same time frame that Tesla plans to launch the Robotaxi across the United States, Mexico, and Canada — something that could only be done with customer-owned cars.
That final step will be bold—and it may come with complications, especially given that autonomous vehicle approval spans municipal, state or provincial, and even federal levels. There are plenty of regulatory hurdles ahead, but this is undoubtedly shaping up to be one of the most exciting times for Tesla.
Launch Event
With the Robotaxi network launching and Unsupervised FSD just around the corner, there’s a lot to get excited about. Tesla is expected to host a launch event at Gigafactory Texas in Austin to mark the debut of its first Robotaxi network. The company previously hinted that referral code users could receive invites—offering a rare chance to score an early ride in a Robotaxi outside the Hollywood studio lot.
Tesla’s engineering mule vehicles—used to test autonomy for future platforms—have resurfaced after an extended absence. The last time we saw them was back in July, when Tesla was gearing up for its initial We, Robot event. Since then, sightings have been scarce.
These vehicles typically signal that Tesla is testing new camera placements or validating FSD ground-truth data. This time, however, they appear to be outfitted exclusively with the updated camera hardware seen on the Cybercab.
New Sightings
The mules have now been spotted in Boston, Massachusetts, and Concord, New Hampshire—their first known appearances this far east. This suggests Tesla is actively collecting data to evaluate and optimize FSD performance in new regions. Thanks to Reddit user Ready_Medium_6693 for catching the one in Concord.
Elon Musk recently mentioned that Tesla plans to expand Robotaxi networks beyond the initial Texas and California launches. So while these sightings aren’t entirely unexpected, the speed of their arrival is. It suggests Tesla is confident in its ability to train FSD for local traffic rules and driving behaviors to the point it no longer needs a driver.
Bumper Cameras
The vehicle that’s been spotted in Boston is the usual Tesla engineering Model 3… except with one unique twist. It includes a front bumper camera. Shout out to @Dylan02939106 for catching the bumper camera in these photos.
The Refreshed Model 3 Mule with a Bumper Camera!
@Dylan02939106 on X
We previously released an opinion piece regarding whether the front bumper camera would be required for Unsupervised FSD. In our eyes, Tesla will require a bumper camera for Unsupervised FSD - if only to improve direct visibility in the bumper area of the vehicle. This is key for low-speed maneuvering in crowded areas like parking lots and garages, as well as for key features like Actually Smart Summon.
It isn’t surprising that Tesla is continuing to evaluate vehicles with a bumper camera - the Cybertruck, Cybercab, and Refreshed Model Y all have them now - and the rest of the lineup, including the flagship Model S and X, as well as the refreshed Model 3 - were supposed to eventually receive them as well.
With the Model S and Model X set for refreshes this year—and the front bumper camera on this Model 3 looking well-integrated rather than a temporary setup—it seems likely that front bumper cameras will soon become standard across Tesla’s entire lineup.
The Robotaxi Mule in Boston
@Dylan02939106 on X
In fact, Tesla’s newest iteration of the FSD computer has a slot for the Bumper Camera on all AI4/HW4 vehicles, so a future retrofit could even be possible.
These are some pretty exciting times - we may see Robotaxi networks actually deploy in time for Tesla’s lofty goal of “sometime in 2026” for cities throughout North America. Once many American cities begin to accept their deployment, it will be easier to seek homologation in Mexico and Canada, enabling deployment throughout the continent.
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