In case you missed it, Tesla’s first-quarter numbers came in, and they have Wall Street running for the hills, with critics cheering: “I told you so.”
The company reported its first quarterly drop in deliveries in nearly four years, a moment some have termed a stark deviation from its historical trajectory of relentless growth. However, it’s worth delving deeper to understand the factors at play.
Economic and Competitive Landscape
First and foremost, the broader economic landscape cannot be overlooked. With rising interest rates dampening consumer spending power, the cost of living soaring, and the global economy showing signs of strain, the automotive sector, especially the EV market, has not been immune to these headwinds. Therefore, Tesla's sales performance this quarter cannot be viewed in isolation but as part of a larger economic tableau that has also left its mark on other sectors. The company also expected this, which prepared investors for a difficult year during the last earnings call.
Moreover, the competitive landscape has been intensifying. BYD, Tesla's closest competitor and a powerhouse in its own right, briefly overtook Tesla in sales in the last quarter of 2023, only to experience its own significant sales drop of 43% in the first quarter of 2024. This parallel trajectory underscores a shared challenge: navigating a market that is becoming increasingly saturated, competitive, and sensitive to pricing dynamics.
Musk's Commentary
In the wake of Tesla's reported delivery numbers, Elon Musk took to his platform X, which he has 180 million followers, to address critics directly. Musk's response to investment analyst Ross Gerber's continued criticism, stating, "He’s such an idiot that he can’t even tell he’s an idiot," defending Tesla's position by highlighting BYD's significant sales drop and asserting, "This was a tough quarter for everyone."
He’s such an idiot that he can’t even tell he’s an idiot.
BYD sales dropped by 42% from last quarter. This was a tough quarter for everyone.
Amidst this, Tesla's disproportionate share of media scrutiny makes these numbers seem even worse. For example, Reuters's story on BYD's 43% decline in deliveries was less than 400 words, while Tesla’s miss on deliveries was more than 800 words. The company's every move, statement, and quarterly performance is magnified, analyzed, and debated, creating a narrative battleground that extends far beyond the confines of financial spreadsheets, production lines, or even fair play.
Tesla’s Technological Innovations Extend Beyond the Car
Tesla's commitment to pushing the boundaries of technology remains unwavering, especially in the realm of Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities. The company's confidence in this revolutionary technology is apparent in a new offer of a complimentary one-month trial of its FSD software.
This bold move underscores Tesla's belief in the transformative potential of its autonomous driving technology and its readiness to showcase this innovation to a wider audience, inviting them to experience the future of driving firsthand.
Moreover, Musk's pinned post on X offers a visionary glimpse into Tesla's future, emphasizing the transformative potential of Tesla's Full Self-Driving technology.
Most people still have no idea how crushingly good Tesla FSD will get. It will be superhuman to such a degree that it will seem strange in the future that humans drove cars, even while exhausted and drunk!
The Future of Tesla and the EV Market
Tesla's strategic decisions, including price adjustments and the anticipation of a slower growth year, reflect a calculated approach to these challenges. The company's focus on ramping production for the updated Model 3 and navigating unforeseen disruptions, such as the Red Sea conflict and an arson attack at its Berlin factory, speaks to the operational hurdles it faces amid a complex global environment.
For Tesla and BYD, this period is a chapter in a longer saga of adaptation, resilience, and relentless pursuit of a future where electric vehicles are at the heart of global mobility. As the dust settles on this quarter's developments, the focus inevitably shifts to the strategies, innovations, and decisions that will define the next phase of growth for these electric vehicle titans.
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Following customer requests, Tesla has once again returned FSD Transfers for North America. This comes after some new details we received on FSD Supervised and Unsupervised at the recent Q1 2025 Earnings Call.
Vox Populi, Vox Dei … FSD Transfer is back
All countries (in NA), all S3XY + @cybertruck (excl Foundation Series & Launch Series)
This latest round of FSD transfers doesn’t have a specific time limit - so if you’re in the market for a new vehicle and were worried about transferring FSD from a HW3 vehicle - now is the best chance.
This transfer opportunity is applicable for any new vehicle purchases, including the Model S, 3, X, Y, as well as the Cybertruck. The only vehicles it doesn’t apply to are the Foundation-Series Cybertruck or a Launch-Series Model Y, which already come with FSD included.
If you’re conducting an FSD transfer, you’ll need to reach out to your Tesla delivery coordinator through the Tesla app to confirm you’re eligible and to get the process started.
Note that once you take delivery, FSD access is removed from your older vehicle, regardless if you plan to trade in your vehicle or keep it.
Canada and Mexico
For those in Canada and Mexico, there’s some good news. This opportunity is available for customers in those countries as well, however, new vehicle orders are currently paused in Canada and Mexico for unknown reasons.
Running Offers
There are also several other offers running in North America, with the country flags indicating which countries their available in:
0% Financing on new Model 3 Orders (60mo, 0.99% for 72mo) 🇺🇸
Deep Blue Metallic and Pearl White are currently free on a new Model 3 Performance 🇺🇸
Original Model Y Owners are receiving $2,000 off the purchase of a Refreshed Model Y 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 🇲🇽
Free Supercharging on the Model S and Model X 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 🇲🇽
Free Supercharging on the Foundation-Series Cybertruck 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 🇲🇽
Tesla’s long-awaited ambitions for a fully autonomous Robotaxi network powered by the futuristic, control-less Cybercab have finally started to take shape.
During their Q1 2025 earnings call, Tesla shared new details about its Robotaxi network, including that the network will start with new Model Ys. The Cybercab will join the network in 2026.
Robotaxi Plans
Tesla confirmed during the Earnings Call that it is on track to conduct the pilot launch of its Robotaxi network in Austin in June 2025. The first vehicles deployed for this service won’t be Cybercabs, as production for those is still in the prototyping stage.
However, Tesla did outline part of their plan for the Robotaxi network rollout. The initial aim is to begin driverless operations in Austin and then expand the service to other cities within the United States by the end of 2025. Interestingly, Tesla is also testing in California - albeit with safety drivers at this time.
Not a Tesla App
Looking further ahead, there are ambitious plans to ramp up operations to have millions of vehicles operating autonomously within the network by the end of 2026. While substantial revenue generation won’t be immediate, Tesla anticipates that the Robotaxi network will start to “meaningfully move the financial needle” in the second half of 2026.
Tesla also highlighted the current real-world benefits that FSD is already offering today—and will be able to offer to many more people in the near future.
These include reducing effort and time spent on daily commuting or transit, as well as improving mobility for customers with disabilities. Tesla plans to emphasize some of these community stories and wants to highlight the advantages and capabilities of FSD to improve people’s lives.
Robotaxi App and Robotaxi Vehicle UI
Not a Tesla App
After the call, Tesla AI also shared a video showcasing the Robotaxi interface in the Tesla app, as well as some footage that included the in-vehicle UI, at least as it currently stands.
The video shows Tesla employees using and testing Robotaxi features, although there are safety drivers in place. It looks like there is already a set of well-integrated UI mechanisms for both the front and rear screen when in Robotaxi mode.
Tesla is testing this today, and this network has already completed 1,500 trips, totaling approximately 15,000 miles. The system is being tested for vehicle allocation, mission control, and remote assistance operations.
Remote Operators
Inevitably, edge cases or unique situations will come up, and they will be difficult to handle. For these cases, where a Robotaxi vehicle gets stuck or requires assistance, Tesla will likely implement remote support.
While they didn’t completely confirm remote support operators on the Earnings Call, Tesla has previously posted positions for Teleoperator Engineers for Robotaxi, and an AI T=team member posted on LinkedIn about testing for remote assistance operations.
Scaling Up
Tesla initially intends to deploy a relatively small fleet in Austin, with its pilot beginning with about 10 to 20 vehicles on day 1. They will scale up gradually as the systems are validated and operations are refined, and the target is for anyone visiting Austin to be able to hail a robotaxi by the end of June or early July 2025.
Scaling Out
Not a Tesla App
Tesla’s confidence in scaling out stems from its generalized approach with FSD. The team believes that once FSD is thoroughly verified and capable in a few diverse North American cities, deploying it to any other North American city should be technically feasible. After all, driving regulations don’t vary much from one major city to another, except for things like no right turns on red lights.
The primary limitation with scaling out geographically is expected to be securing regulatory approvals in different regions and jurisdictions. While the principles of Tesla’s FSD are expected to apply globally, as with the China rollout, regulation will continue to be a considerable hurdle.
Cybercab
FSD Supervised ride-hailing service is live for an early set of employees in Austin & San Francisco Bay Area.
We've completed over 1.5k trips & 15k miles of driving.
This service helps us develop & validate FSD networks, the mobile app, vehicle allocation, mission control &… pic.twitter.com/pYVfhi935W
Tesla’s fully autonomous, two-seater vehicle, the Cybercab, is also being developed. While volume production for the Cybercab won’t begin until 2026, Tesla is already undergoing sample production validation. The first actual Cybercab builds are expected to be completed near the end of Q2 2025, and we’re excited to see if anything changes from the prototypes shown at We, Robot.
Tesla intends to build Cybercab at Giga Texas, and the production line is on schedule, according to Tesla. Cybercab production will not require a new building and will be built inside the existing Giga Texas factory.
Unboxed Method
Tesla's Shareholder Deck for Q1 2025 is now out, and we're 40 minutes away from the Earnings Call.
It seems Tesla won't be using the unboxed process for its more affordable model - which is a new vehicle.
The Cybercab’s production and low-cost methodology heavily rely upon Tesla’s innovative new unboxed manufacturing method. Tesla’s executive team mentioned that progress and implementation with this new manufacturing solution was going well, and it will be key to lowering the cost of production while considerably raising the level of automation.
Tesla has already achieved key milestones with this method, including successfully integrating large sub-assemblies and resolving challenges related to connecting portions of the vehicle's ceiling during the process. They have also successfully completed corrosion testing related to the new assembly method, as well as begun initial crash testing for the Cybercab.
All of that and more will eventually be incorporated into other vehicle production lines, and the Cybertruck is already benefiting from some aspects of these developments. With a final ambition of achieving a 5-second cycle time per Cybercab, Tesla has come a long way—but it still has quite a bit to go. They’ve managed to meet a 33-second cycle time for the Model Y at Giga Shanghai between two production lines, but 5 seconds per vehicle is quite ambitious.
Not a Tesla App
With all that said, between Robotaxi and Cybercab, there is a lot of interesting news coming from Tesla. We expect this to continue throughout the year as Tesla launches its network and then aims to release FSD Unsupervised to customers, with a potential price increase.
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