In a series of posts on X, Elon Musk stirred up some late-night excitement, offering tantalizing details about the new Tesla Roadster. Musk reached back to posts from 2018 to update his 374 million followers on X with the latest progress, suggesting that Tesla is on the brink of unveiling a vehicle that promises to redefine the boundaries of the automotive industry again.
Tonight, we radically increased the design goals for the new Tesla Roadster. There will never be another car like this, if you could even call it a car. -Elon Musk
A Leap Toward the Future
Musk kicked off the series of posts by returning to old Twitter posts from June 2018 when he announced that the Roadster would come with a SpaceX option package featuring around ten small rocket thrusters, hints at capabilities far beyond traditional sports cars. These thrusters are expected to dramatically enhance acceleration, top speed, braking, and cornering, with Musk going as far as teasing the possibility of flight.
Beyond Boundaries & Timelines
In 2018, Musk reflected on his automotive journey, from choosing a McLaren F1 over a house in Palo Alto. He updated that tweet by posting you will love the new Roadster more than your house. There’s no telling what happened behind closed doors, but with Cybertruck now out the door, several bright, creative engineers have moved to the next challenge, and given Musk’s posts, there has been a significant breakthrough.
I think it has a shot at being the most mind-blowing product demo of all time
Musk confidently states that there will never be another car like this, challenging the very definition of what a car can be. Completing the production design and announcing an unveiling by the end of the year set a clear timeline for its anticipated debut, matching what was predicated at a recent earnings call.
Collaboration and Innovation
The collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX symbolizes a fusion of automotive and aerospace technologies, promising a product demo that could be the most mind-blowing of all time. Musk's assertion that the Roadster could achieve a 0-60 mph time of less than one second—remarkably stated as the "least interesting part" sets unprecedented expectations for performance.
A Brief History and What We Know
Initially earmarked for a 2021 release, the Roadster's journey to production has been met with delays. Despite this, Musk has remained steadfast that this promised vehicle will not only shatter performance records but also redefine what electric cars are capable of.
Tesla's ambition for the Roadster is clear: to create the fastest production car in the world. With a target 0 to 60 mph acceleration time of under 1.9 seconds and a top speed exceeding 250 mph, the Roadster is poised to outperform even the most advanced sports cars, including Tesla's own Model S Plaid. Slave Popovski created a cool simulation animation of a drag race between the Standard Tesla Roadster and the SpaceX thruster version. He states that thrusters are only on for 1.1 seconds, and he uses motion physics to simulate online figures.
The Roadster's engineering marvel extends to its range and battery efficiency. Equipped with a 200 kWh battery pack, it aims to set a new standard with a range of up to 620 miles on a single charge.
Previously, we’ve heard numbers for a base model starting at around $200,000; the Roadster is positioned as a premium offering in the EV market. The limited-edition Founder's Series and the SpaceX Package will cater to enthusiasts and collectors, highlighting the Roadster's exclusivity.
As Tesla prepares for the most mind-blowing product demo of all time, Elon Musk's vision for the new Tesla Roadster is not just about creating another electric vehicle but pushing the limits of what's possible. With its groundbreaking design, unparalleled performance, and the hint of aerospace-inspired technology, the Roadster is shaping up to be a milestone in automotive history. With its groundbreaking design, unparalleled performance, and the hint of aerospace-inspired technology, the Roadster is shaping to be a milestone in automotive history.
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Tesla has been struggling to provide FSD updates for vehicles with Hardware 3 (HW3). What was once thought to be enough compute power to solve autonomy, is no longer able to handle the latest FSD updates.
Yesterday, Tesla finally confirmed that vehicles with HW3 will need to be upgraded to achieve Unsupervised FSD.
HW3 Upgrade Finally Confirmed
Musk had previously suggested that an upgrade might be necessary and Tesla would upgrade these vehicles if needed. However, during yesterday’s earnings call, Musk admitted that HW3 vehicles will, in fact, need to be upgraded. Tesla said that these upgrades will be performed free of charge for owners who have purchased the FSD package, leaving subscribers wondering what will happen to their cars.
Musk stated, “That's going to be painful and difficult, but we'll get it done. Now I'm kinda glad that not that many people bought the FSD package haha.” This appears to confirm that Tesla doesn’t plan on upgrading HW3 on vehicles that subscribe to FSD.
What About Subscription-Based FSD Owners?
While there are a lot of questions, one of the bigger ones is what happens to owners who have subscribed to FSD. Tesla didn’t touch on the topic, but if they’re not planning to upgrade HW3 subscribers, then they could potentially offer a paid retrofit. When the Model 3 was first released, it came standard with HW 2.5. At the time, Tesla said that you won’t need anything better unless you plan to buy FSD. Tesla ended up upgrading owners who had bought FSD for free, but non-FSD owners were required to pay for an upgrade.
Based on previous hardware upgrades—such as the HW2.5 to HW3 transition—a paid upgrade could cost between $1,000 to $3,000. However, it’s not clear what the upgrade to HW3 vehicles will be or how much it will cost even if a paid upgrade becomes available.
FSD on HW3
Musk also hinted that FSD was not selling as well as Tesla had hoped, which likely influenced the introduction of subscription-based FSD.
Meanwhile, Tesla continues to improve HW3-based FSD. FSD V12.6 offers major improvements in smoothness and is considered a “baby V13” with notable improvements over V12.5.4.2. Reverse capabilities are also expected to arrive in a future release for HW3 vehicles, so Tesla hasn’t stopped development just yet. However, Musk was clear that HW3 will continue to lag behind HW4 releases moving forward.
FSD V14 and the Future of HW3
Tesla has stated that FSD V14 will be another significant step toward achieving Unsupervised FSD. The increasing complexity of FSD models and their growing context sizes mean that HW3 is already not able to run the larger FSD V13 models, but according to Tesla, V14 will increase the AI model even further, making it nearly impossible to run on HW3. As AI models become increasingly larger and AI5’s impending arrival approaches, one wonders how long before HW4 can’t run the latest models.
However, Tesla appears confident that HW4 will be sufficient, given its plans to launch FSD-powered robotaxis later this year.
What Will the HW3 Upgrade Look Like?
While Tesla has confirmed the HW3 upgrade, specific details remain unknown. We know that it won’t just be an upgrade to hardware 4 since that computer consumes more power than HW3’s electrical harness can provide, and it also has a different form factor, making retrofitting difficult.
Instead, Tesla will likely have to develop a new FSD hardware unit tailored for the retrofit or modify existing components to fit HW3-equipped vehicles. The hardware will need to be at least as computationally capable as HW4, but use the power of a HW3 unit.
Tesla has also said that it has no plans to replace cameras during the upgrade, despite HW3 cameras having significantly lower resolutions than HW4’s. While Tesla appears confident that this won’t be an issue, owners have reasons to be concerned as Tesla recently increased video processing resolution on HW4 cameras to improve FSD performance.
Tesla’s confirmation of an HW3 upgrade certainly makes more owners comfortable. However, the lack of details leaves subscribers and others wondering what will happen to their vehicles. It also doesn’t do much to ease the frustration of dealing with slower and less capable FSD releases, especially when they pay the same amount as HW4 owners, who receive more features and a smoother ride.
While free upgrades will be available for those who bought FSD outright, subscription-based owners are left in limbo, with no details on potential paid upgrade options.
With FSD V14 on the horizon and HW3 vehicles already struggling with the latest models, this upgrade will be crucial to keep existing owners happy.
Tesla continues to find efficiencies that lower vehicle production costs. In fact, at their earnings call, Tesla announced that their cost of goods (COGs) are now the lowest they’ve ever been. The other day, Tesla completed the Cybertunnel, an underground tunnel that goes underneath a highway, making it easier to get Cybertrucks to their loading lot, and now they’re incorporating FSD into the process.
Tesla announced that newly built vehicles at its Fremont factory now autonomously drive themselves from the end of the production line to the logistics lot, where they are prepared for delivery. This again increases efficiency and lowers vehicle costs.
Unsupervised FSD
Tesla isn’t just using FSD for this. For the first time outside of testing and the Robotaxi event, Tesla is using Unsupervised FSD.
While Unsupervised FSD is not yet ready for widespread public use, Tesla has implemented it in a controlled setting on private property. Without human intervention, the vehicles navigate a 1.2-mile route from the Fremont factory to their designated loading dock lanes. This allows Tesla to refine the software in a real-world environment while avoiding regulatory hurdles that apply to public roads.
One hurdle Tesla needed to overcome was camera calibration. Vehicles typically need to be driven for 20-25 miles on clearly marked roads for the cameras to be calibrated. Only once this process is complete, does FSD become available to the driver.
This meant that new owners weren’t able to experience FSD right after delivery and instead usually needed to wait a day or two before calibration was completed. However, Tesla now calibrates the cameras at the factory with presumably new methods so that the vehicle doesn’t need to be driven a bunch of miles before FSD is ready.
Calibration is now done automatically as the vehicle moves through the manufacturing line.
With Tesla’s Fremont factory successfully deploying Unsupervised FSD, attention now turns to Giga Texas and other factories globally. Fresh lane markings have recently been noticed at the logistics lot in Texas, suggesting that Tesla may soon introduce a similar process there.
Tesla recently completed the Cybertunnel, an underground tunnel connecting Giga Texas to the Cybertruck’s loading area. This tunnel shortens transportation time for Cybertrucks moving from the production floor to the logistics lot. When Tesla shared the Cybertunnel video, you could clearly see employees driving the Cybertrucks through the tunnel, but it’s likely just a matter of time before Cybertrucks navigate the Cybertunnel autonomously.
This new move by Tesla helps them continue testing and refining Unsupervised FSD while also reducing costs by eliminating manual driving from production to shipping lots. It also improves the new customer experience by having cameras calibrated and FSD ready to go at delivery. Tesla said years ago that one day, you’ll be able to order a Tesla, and it’ll drive itself to you. This process would further eliminate costs and speed up delivery times. While this may still be years away, it seems like we’re now one step closer.
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