Tesla has revolutionized the automotive industry; for all its accolades, the company has fallen short on the automatic wiper system. Even the most hardcore Tesla fan can only cringe as the wiper blade squeals across a dry windshield or squint as the wipers can’t keep up with the rain, sleet, or snow. However, it appears the company is set to roll out a critical update targeting the performance of its auto wipers.
Tesla's unique approach to automating wiper function is at the heart of the issue. Unlike traditional vehicles with rain sensors, Tesla's system leverages the vehicle's cameras and a computer vision neural network. This technology adjusts the wiper speed based on the detected precipitation intensity. However, the reality for many users has been a system that is either overly sensitive, activating in clear conditions, or under-responsive during actual rainfall or snowfall.
Anticipated Updates and Improvements
Countless grievances with video caught the attention of a Tesla engineer. Yun-Ta Tsai, a Senior AI Engineer at Tesla, responded on X: “The new improvement should go out soon.” How remains a mystery as the vehicles do not have rain sensors, and the cameras cannot get a clear view of the entire windshield.
This is not Tesla's first attempt to address the auto wipers' performance issues. In June 2023, Tesla announced a pivotal upgrade to its auto wiper system, Autowiper v4, signaling a leap forward from its 'Deep Rain' initiative. This new development, underscored by Elon Musk's assurance that "wipers will be super good," marked a shift towards a more sophisticated and responsive system. The technology would leverage a surround video technique, integrating data from all onboard cameras. But it appears the update did little to wipe away the complaints.
Reputation at Risk
Tesla's journey with the auto wiper system highlights the broader challenges and responsibilities of pioneering new technologies in the automotive sector. As the company pushes the boundaries of what's possible, particularly with its ambitious Full Self-Driving capabilities, addressing seemingly minor features like auto wipers is crucial. These features directly impact user experience and confidence in the brand's technological prowess.
Tesla's refinement of the auto wiper system (again) demonstrates the company’s responsiveness to customer feedback but also its dedication to improving vehicle safety and convenience under varying weather conditions. The outcome of these updates could serve as a benchmark for integrating AI and camera-based systems in automotive applications, potentially influencing future developments across the industry.
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Tesla’s long-awaited ambitions for a fully autonomous Robotaxi network powered by the futuristic, control-less Cybercab have finally started to take shape.
During their Q1 2025 earnings call, Tesla shared new details about its Robotaxi network, including that the network will start with new Model Ys. The Cybercab will join the network in 2026.
Robotaxi Plans
Tesla confirmed during the Earnings Call that it is on track to conduct the pilot launch of its Robotaxi network in Austin in June 2025. The first vehicles deployed for this service won’t be Cybercabs, as production for those is still in the prototyping stage.
However, Tesla did outline part of their plan for the Robotaxi network rollout. The initial aim is to begin driverless operations in Austin and then expand the service to other cities within the United States by the end of 2025. Interestingly, Tesla is also testing in California - albeit with safety drivers at this time.
Not a Tesla App
Looking further ahead, there are ambitious plans to ramp up operations to have millions of vehicles operating autonomously within the network by the end of 2026. While substantial revenue generation won’t be immediate, Tesla anticipates that the Robotaxi network will start to “meaningfully move the financial needle” in the second half of 2026.
Tesla also highlighted the current real-world benefits that FSD is already offering today—and will be able to offer to many more people in the near future.
These include reducing effort and time spent on daily commuting or transit, as well as improving mobility for customers with disabilities. Tesla plans to emphasize some of these community stories and wants to highlight the advantages and capabilities of FSD to improve people’s lives.
Robotaxi App and Robotaxi Vehicle UI
Not a Tesla App
After the call, Tesla AI also shared a video showcasing the Robotaxi interface in the Tesla app, as well as some footage that included the in-vehicle UI, at least as it currently stands.
The video shows Tesla employees using and testing Robotaxi features, although there are safety drivers in place. It looks like there is already a set of well-integrated UI mechanisms for both the front and rear screen when in Robotaxi mode.
Tesla is testing this today, and this network has already completed 1,500 trips, totaling approximately 15,000 miles. The system is being tested for vehicle allocation, mission control, and remote assistance operations.
Remote Operators
Inevitably, edge cases or unique situations will come up, and they will be difficult to handle. For these cases, where a Robotaxi vehicle gets stuck or requires assistance, Tesla will likely implement remote support.
While they didn’t completely confirm remote support operators on the Earnings Call, Tesla has previously posted positions for Teleoperator Engineers for Robotaxi, and an AI T=team member posted on LinkedIn about testing for remote assistance operations.
Scaling Up
Tesla initially intends to deploy a relatively small fleet in Austin, with its pilot beginning with about 10 to 20 vehicles on day 1. They will scale up gradually as the systems are validated and operations are refined, and the target is for anyone visiting Austin to be able to hail a robotaxi by the end of June or early July 2025.
Scaling Out
Not a Tesla App
Tesla’s confidence in scaling out stems from its generalized approach with FSD. The team believes that once FSD is thoroughly verified and capable in a few diverse North American cities, deploying it to any other North American city should be technically feasible. After all, driving regulations don’t vary much from one major city to another, except for things like no right turns on red lights.
The primary limitation with scaling out geographically is expected to be securing regulatory approvals in different regions and jurisdictions. While the principles of Tesla’s FSD are expected to apply globally, as with the China rollout, regulation will continue to be a considerable hurdle.
Cybercab
FSD Supervised ride-hailing service is live for an early set of employees in Austin & San Francisco Bay Area.
We've completed over 1.5k trips & 15k miles of driving.
This service helps us develop & validate FSD networks, the mobile app, vehicle allocation, mission control &… pic.twitter.com/pYVfhi935W
Tesla’s fully autonomous, two-seater vehicle, the Cybercab, is also being developed. While volume production for the Cybercab won’t begin until 2026, Tesla is already undergoing sample production validation. The first actual Cybercab builds are expected to be completed near the end of Q2 2025, and we’re excited to see if anything changes from the prototypes shown at We, Robot.
Tesla intends to build Cybercab at Giga Texas, and the production line is on schedule, according to Tesla. Cybercab production will not require a new building and will be built inside the existing Giga Texas factory.
Unboxed Method
Tesla's Shareholder Deck for Q1 2025 is now out, and we're 40 minutes away from the Earnings Call.
It seems Tesla won't be using the unboxed process for its more affordable model - which is a new vehicle.
The Cybercab’s production and low-cost methodology heavily rely upon Tesla’s innovative new unboxed manufacturing method. Tesla’s executive team mentioned that progress and implementation with this new manufacturing solution was going well, and it will be key to lowering the cost of production while considerably raising the level of automation.
Tesla has already achieved key milestones with this method, including successfully integrating large sub-assemblies and resolving challenges related to connecting portions of the vehicle's ceiling during the process. They have also successfully completed corrosion testing related to the new assembly method, as well as begun initial crash testing for the Cybercab.
All of that and more will eventually be incorporated into other vehicle production lines, and the Cybertruck is already benefiting from some aspects of these developments. With a final ambition of achieving a 5-second cycle time per Cybercab, Tesla has come a long way—but it still has quite a bit to go. They’ve managed to meet a 33-second cycle time for the Model Y at Giga Shanghai between two production lines, but 5 seconds per vehicle is quite ambitious.
Not a Tesla App
With all that said, between Robotaxi and Cybercab, there is a lot of interesting news coming from Tesla. We expect this to continue throughout the year as Tesla launches its network and then aims to release FSD Unsupervised to customers, with a potential price increase.
Tesla’s autonomy stack has been one of the primary focuses of Tesla’s earnings calls for quite some time. It is also crucial to achieving Tesla’s larger ambitions, such as its robotaxi network and humanoid robots like Optimus.
Now, with FSD Unsupervised being prepared for the robotaxi launch in June, there’s a lot of new information being shared by Tesla on what to expect.
FSD Supervised
The version currently available to customers, FSD Supervised, has been available since its rebranding with the launch of FSD V12 last year. However, it has been a while since we saw an update - in fact, over 100 days since the last public FSD update.
Tesla has been gathering and processing data at an unprecedented rate. In the shareholder’s deck, Tesla revealed that there had been over 7.7 million miles driven per day this past quarter in North America and China. Tesla’s recently deployed Dojo units are likely running at full tilt doing automated data labelling.
The launch in China earlier this year was the first launch of FSD outside of North America. Most interestingly, Tesla conducted that launch without any region-specific training data besides videos found online. Tesla needed to find a workaround, as Chinese data cannot be uploaded outside the country's physical boundaries due to local regulations.
FSD for Europe remains in the wings - Tesla is awaiting regulatory approval and appears hopeful that it will be able to begin deploying FSD Supervised in Europe before the end of 2025. That may be an optimistic goal, especially considering Tesla is facing additional regulatory delays. With UNECE regulators not addressing autonomy in the next several meetings, Tesla will rely on per-country exemptions, starting in the Netherlands.
FSD to Feature Region-Specific Parameters
While FSD continues to expand, Tesla has acknowledged that certain conditions, like snow, are posing difficulties. They intend to increase the comfort and safety level of driving in inclement or locale-specific conditions in the future by adding parameters that are explicitly trained on those types of conditions and regions.
Tesla’s team specifically mentioned that these new parameters aren’t a legal necessity to get FSD Unsupervised or Supervised approved but will instead increase reliability and comfort for users. They also addressed concerns about sun glare, sand, dust, and fog impacting road conditions.
With sun glare in particular, as Tesla uses a photon-count analysis before processing the digital signal, its cameras are not as blinded as they may appear on-screen. FSD performs its analysis before the data is turned into an image, meaning that it can still perceive things even when a human may not be able to from the camera feed.
FSD Price Changes
Tesla’s executive team also raised an interesting point, but one we’ve heard before in 2023. As FSD’s capabilities evolve and increase, they believe that pricing will also be subject to change. The value of FSD, once it is fully Unsupervised, will rise greatly, and the current subscription option is far too inexpensive, according to Tesla.
It appears that Tesla is considering different pricing options for FSD Unsupervised in the future, but for now, the $99 monthly subscription remains in place. It’s possible we may see different prices for FSD Supervised versus FSD Unsupervised.
Ongoing Challenges
Tesla’s current challenges with working on FSD can be described as the march of nines. This is the exponentially increasing work needed as you need to take the system closer and closer to 100%.
Validation primarily remains a challenge due to the difficulty of encountering and then solving edge cases. The internal QA fleet in Austin can operate for multiple days without a single intervention, making it challenging to measure the progression and regression.
Tesla noted that, on average, an intervention is currently required every 10,000 miles. That is equivalent to the average North American driving for an entire year. Therefore, a substantial amount of data is necessary to continue improving the current issues. With 7.7 million miles driven by FSD every day, Tesla has, on average, 770 events to review each day.
Tesla is also continuing to deploy and expand its AI training centers. Cortex, Tesla’s latest, is already online at Giga Texas and crunching through immense amounts of data to train FSD.
FSD Unsupervised
The ultimate goal, of course, is FSD Unsupervised. A fully autonomous experience that can take you from Point A to Point B without needing any human supervision or intervention at all.
Tesla has already deployed FSD Unsupervised to take its Model 3, Model Y, and Cybertrucks from the production line to the outbound lot at both Giga Texas and Fremont, saving considerable man-hours. These vehicles are also autonomously interacting with traffic on their way over to the outbound lot - and it’s an expression of Tesla’s confidence in the system.
Fleet Capabilities
Tesla also mentioned that the vast majority of its fleet on the roads today will be capable of FSD Unsupervised. In particular, Elon mentioned the Model S, 3, X, and Y. Interestingly, this is the fourth event (We, Robot, Q4 Earnings 2024, All-Hands, and Q1 Earnings 2025) without mention of the Cybertruck being capable, likely meaning that FSD development for the Cybertruck is further behind as we’ve seen.
Hardware 3 Retrofit
There was no mention of the limitations of Hardware 3 or Tesla’s exact plans for a future retrofit at this time. While Tesla has already promised to replace HW3 with a future iteration of an AI computer, as we haven’t seen any FSD updates recently, so it’s hard to say whether any future FSD updates will arrive for HW3 besides bug fixes.
We believe Tesla is planning to solve FSD first and then work backward from there. At this point, they’ll know the compute power required for FSD Unsupervised and could make a retrofit that fits into a hardware 3 vehicle with the power and space constraints it imposes.
Unsupervised for Customers
Tesla’s goal is to launch FSD Unsupervised for customers ideally by the end of 2025. The executive team specifically mentioned that their key restrictions are twofold here.
One is that they need to be sure that FSD Unsupervised is meaningfully safer (10x, as per Q4 2024) than a human driver. Tesla has a focus on safety and intends to be extremely careful with the rollout of Unsupervised to ensure there are no incidents or accidents.
The second is that regulatory approvals will continue to be a limitation. However, as more cities and states begin to approve FSD Unsupervised in their locales, Tesla will be able to roll it out faster and faster. The intent is to have FSD Unsupervised available throughout the United States by the second half of 2026, according to Tesla.
Tesla also confirmed their intent to have a Model Y deliver itself from Giga Texas or Fremont to a customer by the end of 2025. This will likely be a local customer, and we did a deep-dive into the potential advantages and disadvantages of this delivery method.
While it may be a slow period for FSD updates right now, there are a lot of changes happening this year with the launch of FSD Unsupervised, the robotaxi network and the expansion to Europe.
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