In a recent series of posts on X, George Hotz, a figure renowned for his contributions to hacking and autonomous driving technology, provided a sobering perspective on the state of autonomous vehicles. Contrary to beliefs held firmly by Tesla and, of course, Elon Musk, Hotz suggests that full autonomy remains a distant goal, potentially over a decade away. This stance is a departure from the optimistic timelines often presented by major players in the AV industry.
The Path to Full Autonomy: A Decade of Development
Hotz acknowledges that while significant milestones will mark the journey to full autonomy, the ultimate goal remains elusive. The distinction between a vehicle's ability to predict and to act autonomously in a loop is vast. Hotz emphasizes that a fully autonomous car must exhibit "agentic behavior" far beyond anything currently demonstrated by existing technologies.
We'll get many useful intermediates on the path to full autonomy in the next 10 years, but the difference between predicting and acting in loop is huge.
A fully autonomous car is an agent so far beyond any agentic behavior I have seen to date. Sorry about bruising your hype.
Despite the long road ahead, Hotz is optimistic about the advancements that will emerge in the interim. Technologies allowing "eyes off" driving on highways could become available within the next decade. These limited-scope capabilities will pave the way for more sophisticated systems, gradually bridging the gap towards full autonomy.
Tesla's Profitability vs. Waymo's Vision
Hotz's commentary began as a response to contrasting views regarding Tesla and Waymo's progress toward full autonomy. While some believe Tesla is on the brink of achieving fully autonomous driving, others see Waymo as the front-runner. However, Hotz points out a critical distinction: Tesla's profitability as a company compared to Waymo's ongoing financial challenges. This underscores the complexity of achieving autonomy from a technical standpoint and as a viable business model.
Understanding Human Behavior: The Ultimate Challenge
Hotz concurs that autonomous vehicles must understand general human and world behavior to operate without geofencing. This level of comprehension is critical, as it encompasses learning from both on-road experiences and off-road simulations. Developing a "general agent" capable of navigating the myriad scenarios drivers encounter daily is fundamental to achieving true autonomy.
Exactly. Limited scope will be sub 10, like eyes off driving on highway. But a fully autonomous car needs to be a general agent.
It's a long road, but I think it's sub 20 years for human level agentic AI. I've devoted my life to this problem.
Hotz reveals a deep commitment to solving the autonomous driving puzzle in his discourse. Estimating that human-level agentic AI could be a reality in less than two decades, he shares his dedication to contributing towards this ambitious goal. His perspective not only tempers the prevailing "hype" around autonomy but also highlights the magnitude of the challenge ahead.
Subscribe
Subscribe to our newsletter to stay up to date on the latest Tesla news, upcoming features and software updates.
Tesla software update 2024.44.3 has started rolling out to customers in larger waves recently and it brings several new features - including Actually Smart Summon to Europe and the Middle East, as well as improvements to Autopark. But that’s not all, it also adds a new Blind Spot Monitoring feature to the new Model 3, and potentially the Cybertruck, but that’s still to be determined.
We previously covered the Blind Spot Warning While Parked as part of our preview notes for update 2024.44, but now that it's going out to customers, it's time to see it in action.
If the vehicle’s door open button is pressed, and a vehicle or object is near or incoming, the vehicle’s Blind Spot Warning Light (2024 Model 3 and Cybertruck) will illuminate, an audible tone will ring and the door won’t open. A message will also be displayed on the center displaying, letting driver’s know why the door didn’t open.
Pressing the button a second time will allow you to override the warning and open the door normally, providing a way to get out in case you just parked close to a nearby vehicle or obstacle.
The object detection for this new feature includes cars, pedestrians, cyclists, and other objects - like things including traffic cones, bollards, strollers, and other large obstacles that FSD and vision-based Autopark detect during normal operation. Of note - this only works for the front two doors. Thanks to X user Max, who did some testing for us, It does not work for the rear passenger doors.
Optional Feature
The feature is optional - it’ll be enabled by default for safety, but if you need to enable or disable it, you can do so under Controls > Safety. For now, the feature is only available on the 2024 Model 3, but we expect it to roll out to the Cybertruck at least. However, there’s no reason why it can’t be added to other vehicles as well, minus the small red dot. We expect Tesla to eventually add this feature to all Tesla vehicles, but it’s currently not a part of update 2024.44.
Enhauto’s S3XY Buttons & Commander
If that’s not enough safety and vision for you, Enhauto, the makers of the popular S3XY Buttons and Commander recently put out a new software update for the 2024 Model 3, which makes some fantastic use of the ambient lighting.
With Enhauto’s solution, users are able to tie their ambient lights to Autopilot use, turn signals or even if a vehicle is their blind spot. Check out the video below for this awesome implementation, where the ambient lights turn red when another vehicle approaches.
Maybe Tesla will integrate something like this into a future update? We’ve been hoping for more customizability with their ambient lighting - it's an easy safety win and a demonstration of Tesla’s do-more-with-less attitude.
I look forward to @enhauto updates more than Tesla...
Ambient light effects....
I set default color to white. Blinks green on turn signals Turns blue on FSD activation Yellow if someone in blind spot Blinks red if turn signal on and blind spot activity detected.
The feature is now possible thanks to what Wes Morrill, Cybertruck’s lead engineering, points out is a huge rewrite of Tesla’s Trip Planner, which not only makes it much more accurate but will now allow users to choose their arrival charge percentage.
More Accurate Trip Planner
When you navigate to a destination, your Tesla will automatically calculate when, where, and how much you need to charge. While the process seems straightforward, Tesla deserves a lot of credit for creating a simple user experience because a lot goes into accurately determining this information.
Tesla has to calculate many moving pieces in order to accurately predict when and where you should stop. First, it needs to consider your driving efficiency and wind direction, terrain elevation, traffic, vehicle speed, and ambient temperature. It also needs to predict the best Superchargers to stop at, taking into account congestion and charger speed.
This morning, in response to Dan Burkland, Wes shared that Tesla had significantly rewritten the backend portion of Trip Planner. These improvements, made by several engineers, were designed to improve Trip Planner’s accuracy and open the door to future features.
It sounds like these changes are mostly server-side, so thanks to their OTA connection, more accurate predictions should be available to all vehicles—no vehicle update is required.
Arrival State of Charge
Along with Tesla’s improvements to Trip Planner, Wes also stated that these improvements allow for a popular feature request — the ability to select your desired charge level at arrival.
Up until now, Tesla’s Trip Planner tried to get you to your destination as quickly as possible, which usually meant arriving with a low state of charge.
While this was fine if you have a charger at your destination, it’s not great if you don’t, or it could be even worse if there are no chargers nearby.
Max de Zegher said on X that he has heard the requests for a selectable arrival state of charge. Wes later clarified this by saying that these improvements to Tesla’s Trip Planner now allow for additional features to be added, such as “desired arrival charge.”
Actually trip planner got a huge rewrite on the back end. I had a great conversation with one of the engineers working on this over a morning run a few weeks back, it's pretty neat. The rewrite also unlocks additional features, like desired arrival charge.
Given that Max de Zegher’s comments came last night and Wes Morrill commented this morning, this feature request likely won’t arrive with the upcoming Holiday Update. Tesla actually hinted at such a feature being added in their last app update, so it does seem like they’ve already planned for it.
Although ‘Arrival State of Charge’ was on our wishlist for the Holiday Update, it looks like it may arrive soon after the holidays.
![First Look at Tesla’s New 'Blind Spot While Parked' Feature [VIDEO]](https://www.notateslaapp.com/img/containers/article_images/model-3-2024/blind-spot-indicator-monitor.jpg/4cdcb11af7b1c7cf021ba96588fd4f1a/blind-spot-indicator-monitor.jpg)
![Tesla Adds HEPA Filter to New Model 3, Will it Get Bioweapon Defense Mode? [Update: Tesla Edits Post]](https://www.notateslaapp.com/images/news/2023/new-model-3-hepa-filter_300w.jpg)
