Tesla should’ve prioritized the next-generation mass-market vehicle ahead of the Cybertruck. As a disclaimer, I’m certainly not saying I’m smarter than Elon Musk, and I most definitely have the advantage of hindsight. I will also make this argument while wearing my Cybertruck t-shirt and awaiting my delivery notification.
There is no doubt that Cybertruck is a vehicle destined for the history books; Tesla achieved what it set out to do, throwing out the old truck design and making the future look like the future. But would the future be a little kinder to Tesla now if it prioritized the next generation model, the less expensive $25,000 car, over the Cybertruck?
This decision is worth a debate among enthusiasts and critics, weighing the potential benefits and drawbacks of focusing on a niche, high-profile product over a vehicle that will allow more people to drive an EV. This editorial delves into the pros and cons of Tesla's approach, examining the implications for the company's future and the broader EV landscape.
Pros of Prioritizing Cybertruck
Market Differentiation and Branding: The Cybertruck, with its bold design and robust features, positions Tesla uniquely in the pickup truck market, a segment that has featured the same design and has been dominated by gas-powered vehicles. This move not only strengthens Tesla's brand as a leader in innovation but also attracts a new demographic of consumers who value distinctiveness and performance.
Cybertruck hits different in Matte Black
Not a Tesla App
High-Profit Margins: Pickup trucks typically offer higher profit margins than smaller cars. By prioritizing the Cybertruck, Tesla can potentially boost its profitability, providing the financial flexibility needed to fund future projects, including developing and manufacturing the next-gen platform. This strategy has been Tesla’s game plan since the Roadster, which financed the development of the Model S, and the pattern repeated.
Early Advantage: Rivian and Ford held the electric pickup truck market alone until Tesla joined the party. Ford has since significantly reduced its production goals for the Lightning, and Rivian is struggling to produce at a rate that would compete with Tesla. Tesla can now set the standard for the sector as the company plans to deliver 250,000 a year and has over a million orders.
Cons of Delaying Next-Gen "Redwood"
Missed Opportunity for Mass Market Penetration: The next-gen that is rumored to have a codename of "Redwood" is anticipated to revolutionize not just vehicle design but, more significantly, the manufacturing process. Delaying its introduction until 2025 could mean missing the opportunity to lead the EV industry towards more accessible and affordable electric vehicles, potentially slowing the global transition to sustainable transportation. Remember, Cybertruck was first introduced in 2019.
Concept of the next generation car
Not a Tesla App
Competition Catching Up: The delay allows competitors, especially those in China like BYD, to consolidate their position in the affordable EV segment. As these companies expand their global footprint, Tesla's first-mover advantage in the mass-market EV space could diminish. BYD has already overtaken Tesla in EV sales thanks largely to its affordable small, compact cars.
Potential Impact on Mission Alignment: Tesla's mission to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy aligns more closely with making EVs accessible to the mass market. Prioritizing a high-end, niche product like the Cybertruck over a potentially revolutionary but more accessible vehicle could be a deviation from this mission.
Strategic Considerations
Innovation in Manufacturing: Elon Musk's emphasis on the revolutionary manufacturing system for Redwood suggests that Tesla is not merely delaying an affordable car but is rethinking the entire production paradigm. This could result in efficiencies and advancements that significantly lower the cost of EVs, making them more accessible on a global scale once the Redwood is introduced.
Balancing Short-Term and Long-Term Goals: Tesla's strategy may balance achieving short-term financial and branding objectives with Cybertruck and laying the groundwork for long-term industry transformation with Redwood. The success of the Cybertruck could provide Tesla with the necessary resources and technological insights to support the ambitious goals of the next-gen vehicle.
Global Expansion and Market Readiness: The staggered focus allows Tesla to plan its global expansion strategically, ensuring markets are ready to introduce groundbreaking vehicles. By the time the Redwood is prepared for production, Tesla may have established a more substantial worldwide infrastructure and a more favorable regulatory and consumer environment for its adoption.
Tesla's decision to prioritize the Cybertruck over the next-gen car is a calculated risk that we can consider and debate—the company balanced market opportunities with long-term transformative potential. The success of this approach will depend on Tesla's ability to execute its ambitious plans for the Cybertruck while simultaneously advancing its revolutionary manufacturing processes. Ultimately, Tesla's strategies reflect a nuanced understanding of the challenges and opportunities in leading the global transition to sustainable transportation.
Subscribe
Subscribe to our newsletter to stay up to date on the latest Tesla news, upcoming features and software updates.
It was a rainy April 1st when a news-searching author went on a delve into the depths of April Fools to find fact from falsehood. And while we found a lot of fantastic jokes, we also found some good ideas.
So, with a shoutout to MarcoRP on X, whose April Fool’s Joke gave us a good run for our money for a couple of minutes, we thought to ourselves - what would a Cybercab Charging Station / Cleaning Hub really look like?
Cybercab Wireless Charging Sites
Now, before continuing, we’d like to point out that the image up top is a joke from Marco - it isn’t an accurate or real site map submission from Tesla. However, it gave us the impetus to think critically about what is required for a Robotaxi fleet, based primarily on the Cybercab, to be able to service a city.
Requirements
Tesla will likely need to charge a small fleet of Cybercabs at a single time and in a single place. That means that the site needs to be large enough to cover a major metro area while also still being compact enough to not cost too much money to build out.
In addition, we need to factor in charge times. The Cybercab is likely to launch with a battery around 50 kWh, which will result in a range of approximately 300 miles. With that much range, the average Cybercab may not need to charge more than once or at all during daytime shifts, so instead, most of the vehicles will charge overnight.
MarcoRP
Math and Charge Times
The overnight charging means that most of these vehicles could be charged slowly. When we did some back-of-the-napkin math last year, we determined that Tesla’s wireless charger will likely peak around 17 kW (for comparison, Tesla’s Wall Connector at 32 amps charges at about 7 kW). If we scale Tesla’s wireless charger down slightly to 10 kW, accounting for some energy loss and the potential size of the site, that means a Cybercab will be able to charge in about 5 hours.
Tesla’s upcoming V4 Supercharger unit can currently handle 1.5MW per cabinet, but this slower-speed charging is A/C, not DC, which means there is a step-down loss of about 3-5%. Let’s make that a comfortable 10% for any other overages, but we can estimate around 1.35MW of power. That 1.3MW will easily handle charging up to 100 Cybercabs at once - all wirelessly, using Tesla’s unique beam-forming and beam-steering technology to keep efficiency high at every single stall.
Within about 5 hours, a whole fleet of 100 Cybercabs could be charged overnight when electricity rates are cheaper and still be out in time for the morning commute.
While this is all just hypothetical, it really does make sense that Tesla will be establishing these sites that won’t require much space or a ton of energy.
Tesla recently curtained off a large section of the parking garage at Giga Texas, as well as some of their chargers on the eastern end of the facility, leading us to believe they may just be testing this at scale internally.
There’s a lot to look forward to with Tesla’s V4 Supercharger deployment coming this year and with Robotaxi launching in just a couple of months.
Tesla released its Q1 2025 delivery and production numbers this morning, reporting 336,681 vehicles delivered and 362,615 produced—marking the company’s weakest quarter since 2022. Deliveries declined 13% year-over-year and fell well short of Wall Street estimates, which ranged from 360,000 to 370,000. Some analysts had forecast as many as 407,000 units.
Despite the shortfall, Tesla stock is actually up about 4% this morning, not only suggesting the market had already priced in weaker performance, but that this may be seen as the low point for the company. Tesla began delivering its refreshed Model Y in March, and production across all four Gigafactories was impacted by several weeks of downtime as Tesla retooled lines to accommodate the newer model. However, there’s no doubt that there is some brand impact from Elon Musk.
Comparing Numbers
Most of the deliveries—323,800 units—came from the Model 3 and Model Y lineup, while the “Other Models” category (including the Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X) accounted for 12,881 deliveries. That’s a 31% drop for Model 3/Y and a sharper 45% drop for the Other Models category compared to the previous quarter. However, comparing it to a more applicable Q1 2024, these numbers are only down about 13% for the Model 3/Y and down about 24% for the Model S/X and Cybertruck.
In terms of production, Tesla built 345,454 Model 3/Y vehicles and 17,161 from its “Other Models” line. The company attributed the production drop to the Model Y changeover but said the ramp is “going well.” This still leaves a large gap between production and delivery numbers, although they may not be as large as many had feared.
Q1 2025
Q1 2024
Q4 2024
Model 3/Y Deliveries
323,800
369,783
471,930
Model 3/Y Production
345,454
412,376
436,718
Other Models Deliveries
12,881
17,027
23,640
Other Models Production
17,161
20,995
22,727
Total Deliveries
336,681
386,810
495,570
Total Production
362,615
433,371
459,445
Cybertruck
One major weak point in Tesla’s numbers seems to be Cybertruck deliveries. While Tesla previously expected the Cybertruck to sell more than 250k units per year, we’re already seeing a decline in numbers. This is likely due to several factors, including the higher-than-expected price point of the truck, the unavailability of the RWD model, and the Cybertruck’s polarizing design, which may attract unwanted attention right now.
While the Cybertruck was ramping up production in 2024, making the lower numbers reasonable, the deliveries for Q1 2025 dropped drastically compared to the previous quarter. Cybertruck deliveries are estimated to be in the 5- 6k unit range for the quarter.
The good news to take away here is that the Single Motor variant of the Cybertruck appears to be nearing release. The price of the RWD version is expected to be about $60k USD before any incentives.
Q1 Earnings Call
Tesla announced their quarterly numbers this morning and posted on social media that they’ll live stream their Earnings Call on April 22nd.
This post was later edited to change “Q1 Earnings Call” to “Q1 Company Update.” It’s not clear whether there’s any significance in this change, but it could mean that Tesla has more to announce during the call.
The Company Update will occur on April 22nd at 2:30 PM PT / 5:30 PM ET. The standard Q&A session with executives and Musk is expected to follow the release of additional financial results for the quarter.
Tesla is set to launch its long-awaited Robotaxi service in June, and a cheaper, mass-market model is also planned for this year. With delivery numbers coming in soft and the refreshed Model Y just hitting the road, all eyes will be on forward-looking commentary during the update.
