Tesla's market share in the US has climbed up to 4.2%
ICannot_Enough / X
Tesla not only continued to dominate the EV segment but also made significant inroads into the overall automotive market in the United States, surpassing established players like Volkswagen. According to Cox Automotive and Kelley Blue Book, Tesla's market share in the US automotive sector climbed to 4.2% in 2023, up from 3.8% in 2022. This increase was bolstered by an impressive 25.4% jump in sales, with Tesla selling approximately 654,888 vehicles in the US.
While the numbers are impressive, they don’t show how Tesla has pulled this feat off. No car company worldwide is under more mainstream media scrutiny than Telsa. The company does little advertising, and despite committing to try marketing its product more traditionally, Tesla still strives on word of mouth. Its CEO, Elon Musk, is a lightning rod for controversy. Musk is under a continuous attack that has caused some shareholders to be concerned in the past. Despite all of that, Tesla is on the rise.
Comparison with Traditional Automakers
Data from Cox Automotive and Kelley Blue Book reveals a remarkable upswing in Tesla's market share in the US. Climbing from 3.8% in 2022 to 4.2% in 2023, Tesla's growth trajectory reflects a robust 25.4% increase in sales, translating to about 654,888 vehicles sold in the US.
While Tesla's market share is still behind giants such as GM, Ford, and Toyota, its growth trajectory is notable. In 2023, Tesla's market share exceeded that of Volkswagen (4.1%), Subaru (4.1%), and BMW (2.5%). This achievement is significant, considering Tesla exclusively sells EVs, unlike Volkswagen and others that offer mostly internal combustion engines. However, Tesla's rise in sales came with a reduction in profitability, as the average transaction price for its cars dropped from around $60,000 to just over $50,000 by the year's end.
The Changing EV Landscape
The EV sector is poised for a significant transformation, with over 70 new EV models expected to debut in the next two years. This influx of new models will intensify competition, challenging Tesla's current market dominance. However, Tesla is not resting on its laurels, with the introduction of the Cybertruck and updates to popular models like the Model 3 (now available in North America) and the Model Y anticipated to stimulate further growth.
Tesla's innovative approach and strong brand recognition position it well to navigate the increasingly competitive EV market. The company's ability to adapt to market demands and its commitment to technological advancements are key factors that will likely sustain its growth trajectory.
Market Dynamics and Tesla's Strategy
The automotive market in the US is expected to experience an uptick in sales, with new vehicle sales projected to reach 15.7 million in 2024. Tesla's strategy seems well-aligned with these market dynamics, as evidenced by its expanding product line, like the “Model 2” and strategic pricing adjustments.
Tesla has the largest growth over the last eight years
ICannot_Enough / X
Tesla's remarkable performance in 2023 signifies a major shift in the automotive industry, highlighting the growing appeal of EVs and Tesla's capability to leverage this trend. Despite facing challenges from a rapidly evolving market and increased competition, Tesla's innovative strategies and strong market presence have established it as a formidable player in the automotive sector. The company's journey from a niche EV manufacturer to a key competitor against established automotive giants like Volkswagen is proof of its resilience and adaptability.
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With Tesla software update 2024.32.6, users on X have begun reporting a big difference in how Tesla’s Autopilot detects attention. While Tesla’s latest FSD versions in North America support vision-based attention monitoring when the cabin is well lit, the feature has yet to be officially released outside of the region or apply to Autopilot.
On FSD updates in North America, Tesla now only uses steering wheel torque on vehicles that don’t include a cabin camera or when the camera can’t see the driver properly.
Vision-Based Attention Monitoring
VBAM, or Vision-Based Attention Monitoring, was introduced to Full Self-Driving in FSD update V12.4 and subsequently rolled out wide to North American users on update V12.5.4.
However, it now seems that Europeans with update 2024.32.6 may be experiencing some form of vision-based monitoring as well. While the green dot of VBAM isn’t shown next to the Autopilot icon, users are noticing that they no longer need to apply resistance to the wheel while using Navigate on Autopilot.
Meanwhile, for regular Autopilot, nudges are still required – but users are reporting that simply having your hands on the steering wheel is now enough, and you no longer need to apply pressure to the wheel. It looks like Tesla may be using the cabin camera to monitor whether the user’s hands are on the steering wheel instead of detecting torque on the wheel.
In addition, while using Navigate on Autopilot, the driver no longer needs to apply torque to the wheel in order to accept a lane change. This has been one of the largest regulatory obstacles for Tesla to tackle and is partially what prevented FSD from rolling out in Europe in the first place.
In the EU, any autonomous vehicle actions, including changing lanes, had to be approved by the driver. This means the driver would need to nudge the steering wheel to accept lane changes or have the vehicle take an exit while on Navigate on Autopilot. This EU requirement was recently lifted, and this change to Navigate on Autopilot is a distinct sign that FSD could be around the corner for Europe.
We’re excited to see if Tesla hits its original timeline of Q1 2025 for FSD's release outside of North America. With these changes to VBAM and regulatory changes in the European Union, the goal finally appears to be in sight.
Video
A Tesla owner has recently posted a video that shows the new behavior in Europe.
Tesla’s Robotaxi event—We, Robot—is right around the corner. It takes place this Thursday, October 10th. Invites for the event were recently sent out in batches to those who won the shareholder raffle, and those who RSVP will receive their tickets 2-3 days before the event.
And it’ll be happening in none other than Hollywood, Los Angeles. The event will take place at the Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. Studios, a massive 110-acre location that includes large sets prepared for all sorts of movies and TV shows.
So, let’s take a minute to take stock of what we know about the event, and what we can expect.
What We Know
We know the event is taking place in and around Discovery Inc. Studios, as Tesla has been intensively gathering FSD data in the area around the studio before the event. In addition to that, some camouflaged Robotaxi prototypes have been seen driving around the actual Studio grounds.
What’s interesting is that Tesla has been intensively gathering data throughout San Francisco, Los Angeles, and the Bay Area – including certain destinations like the Tesla Diner in Hollywood. We saw Robotaxi Mules – vehicles equipped with cameras in places we expect the Robotaxi to have them – running the routes in these areas, gathering data ahead of time to train the FSD model.
With all that, we have some of our own expectations for the event.
Not a Tesla App
What We Expect
There’s a lot of speculation about the Robotaxi, and lots of hints that Tesla has dropped over time. We expect Tesla to deliver a small, two-door sedan with two seats. The car is expected to have four wheels, although there was some speculation of three wheels at one point. It’ll likely include a good amount of trunk space for luggage as well. Based on camouflaged vehicles, sneak peeks Tesla has shared, and the Robotaxi mules, we expect the vehicle to be quite a bit smaller, although the body styling appears to be similar to a Model 3.
Tesla’s focus will likely be on autonomy and cheap production, so don’t expect large screens, rotating seats, tables, etc, in the vehicle. It’ll likely include a single screen in the middle like the Model 3. The UI for the vehicle will likely be very similar to production vehicles today but simplified since you won’t be able to control some aspects. There may also be new modules that will display important customer information front and center, such as their ETA and fare price.
We’re not sure how much Tesla will talk about FSD hardware at the event, as they won’t want customers to feel like they’re being left out, but we expect the Robotaxi to include Tesla’s upcoming Hardware 5 FSD suite or a completely different hardware that focuses on redundancy and safeguards that will be crucial to operate an autonomous fleet.
A concept of what the UI in the Robotaxi may look like
@dkrasniy
One of the key things we expect at the event is the opportunity for attendees to experience Robotaxi, along with the entire Tesla experience from start to finish. The event will probably start with a keynote address from Elon Musk and Ashok Elluswamy – the directors of the upcoming show.
It will likely progress to a virtual demonstration of Robotaxi – including how Tesla’s upcoming Robotaxi summoning will work via the Robotaxi app, and then a quick showing of some other information at the keynote. We’ll also find out whether or not Tesla will initially launch their Robotaxi network with Tesla-owned Robotaxis, customer-owned Robotaxis, or customer-supervised vehicles.
Hopefully, Tesla also showcases a few more things – including that wireless EV charging, and potentially some other things that have been behind the curtain.
The final and most exciting portion of the event will be when users get the opportunity to be hands-on with the Robotaxi. Hopefully, they’ll get access to the interface from their Tesla app and be able to summon a Robotaxi and have it take them somewhere on the studio grounds. This time will also serve as a chance for people to get up close and personal with Robotaxi, poke around and see any unique features of the vehicle. We still have a lot to learn about the vehicle.
Of course, these are just our expectations of the event. For all we know, it could turn out to be the same, but in reverse.
For those who have been lucky enough to receive a ticket, please let us know if you have a +1. We’d love to be able to cover the event in person and experience Robotaxi ourselves.
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