The company referred to as Tesla without the drama can now be called Tesla with more sales and less drama. The final quarter of 2023 marked a significant milestone as BYD, a Chinese automaker, surged ahead of Tesla in EV sales. BYD sold an impressive 526,409 fully electric cars, eclipsing Tesla's delivery of 484,507 vehicles. We saw this coming after the third quarter, and if projections hold, Tesla will not be regaining the EV crown anytime soon.
Tesla’s fourth quarter was impressive; deliveries were up 38% year over year, and production was up 35% year over year. Plus, the company sold more Model S and Model X than it has during any quarter in the past five years. However, for a company that has projected 50% year-over-year growth and has been the unquestioned king of the EV sector, this performance falls a little flat, and it’s allowed one of the bigger threats to catch up.
BYD's performance in the fourth quarter was nothing short of extraordinary, with a record sale of 942,651 vehicles. This figure included a 55% share of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) and 45% of Plugin Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV). Notably, BYD transitioned away from Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles in April 2022, focusing entirely on electric and hybrid models.
The Competition is Here
The origins of BYD trace back to its foundation as a battery company, later expanding into automobile manufacturing in the mid-2000s. With the backing of notable investor Warren Buffet, BYD has often been paralleled with Tesla; however, the two companies differ significantly in their product offerings and business strategies. Tesla adopts an online direct sales model, whereas BYD leverages a vast dealer network for both its international expansion and dominance in its domestic market. BYD has demonstrated a commitment to nurturing its dealership network, a model often perceived as outdated.
The competition between BYD and Tesla is set to intensify in 2024. BYD is venturing into areas previously dominated by Tesla, such as self-developed autonomous driving systems and a direct sales model. This shift is evident in establishing two new EV brands, YangWang, and Fang Cheng Bao, which adopt direct sales strategies and expand their own sales networks. Fang Cheng Bao launched 154 showrooms and direct-operated stores in 84 cities in 2023, while YangWang aimed to open 90 stores in 40 cities by the year's end.
Conventional Cars in Demand
In contrast to Tesla's focus on advanced autonomous driving capabilities and high-tech interiors, BYD's vehicles feature more traditional interiors, emphasizing physical buttons and conventional design. The company's research and development primarily centers on battery technology, striving to offer high-quality vehicles at reasonable prices.
BYD's approach to business is characterized by vertical integration. The company, led by founder and CEO Wang Chuanfu, controls the entire production chain, from lithium mining to battery manufacturing, vehicle assembly, shipping logistics, and even car insurance. This strategy mirrors Tesla's approach to some extent, with both companies prioritizing cost efficiency and affordability.
For the year 2023, BYD's total electric vehicle sales soared to 3,023,679, a 62% increase from the previous year. Of these, 1,574,804 were BEVs. Conversely, Tesla delivered 1,808,581 vehicles in 2023, marking a 38% increase from 1,313,851 in 2022.
Despite BYD's impressive annual performance, Tesla maintained its lead in cumulative sales for the year. However, projections suggest BYD is poised to continue as the leading EV manufacturer in 2024.
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Tesla’s VP of Charging, Max de Zegher, recently confirmed on X that the first 500kW Supercharger sites are coming soon. These next-generation chargers will not only support the Cybertruck charging at 500kW, but they’ll also be more cost-effective to deploy than previous models.
Late last year, Tesla indicated plans to accelerate Supercharger deployments, with many future locations featuring V4 cabinets. Some sites are already being equipped with V4 posts, offering improved charging capabilities, but the V4 cabinets allow Tesla to get even more power to each stall.
500kW Charging
Tesla recently enabled 325kW charging for the Cybertruck at compatible Superchargers across North America - specifically those with V4 posts and V3 cabinets, which are typically referred to as V3.5 Superchargers. The upcoming V4 Superchargers will also have a V4 cabinet, which will take this even further—delivering up to 500kW per stall.
While the increase to 325kW has already improved charging times by approximately 3–5 minutes, depending on the vehicle’s state of charge (SoC), the jump to 500kW is expected to have an even greater impact. With this upgrade, the Cybertruck could potentially charge from 10% to 80% SoC in under 30 minutes—an impressive feat for a vehicle with a massive 123kWh battery pack.
The vehicle’s ability to maintain a high level of charge current can make an even larger difference, so we’ll have to see what the charge curve looks like at these new 500kW chargers.
One of the biggest advantages of the V4 cabinet is its streamlined design. It can power up to eight charging posts—twice as many as the V3 cabinet—reducing site complexity and minimizing the amount of electrical work needed between the cabinet and the posts. This results in a smaller footprint and a more efficient installation process.
Tesla has optimized deployments by pre-mounting Supercharger posts on factory-made concrete bases, making them ready for quick installation. With this approach, Tesla is able to install each post for less than $40,000, according to Max de Zegher.
This is a fraction of the $225,000 per stall cost recently revealed in a contract awarded to Revel Charging. This massive price difference benefits both Tesla and site owners, allowing for faster and more cost-effective network expansion.
Lower costs also mean potential savings for customers, who will enjoy cheaper and faster charging. With the first full V4 sites set to roll out soon, it will be exciting to see how quickly the Cybertruck can charge. Looking ahead, future Tesla vehicles with 800V high-voltage architecture could also take advantage of these next-generation charging speeds.
Supercharging is fast and convenient, but there are times when a station reaches full capacity, requiring drivers to wait for an available stall. When there are only a few vehicles in line, the wait is minimal, and figuring out whose turn it is to charge is straightforward. However, long queues can form during peak travel times or in high-traffic areas, leading to confusion and frustration as vehicles cut the line.
Currently, there is no official system for managing Supercharger queues—drivers rely on informal, self-organized lines. While many follow an unspoken order, disputes can arise when some claim they arrived first or attempt to cut ahead.
Urban Superchargers in cities like Toronto, Los Angeles, and New York often see long lines during busy hours, with drivers doing their best to maintain order. A structured queuing system could help streamline the process, reducing conflicts and ensuring a fair, organized charging experience for all, and that’s exactly what Tesla is about to implement.
Virtual Queue
The Tesla Charging account on X has confirmed that it plans to introduce a Virtual Queuing system, with a pilot program set to launch at select Supercharger sites next quarter. While Tesla has yet to specify which locations will be included, it’s likely the initial rollout will take place in the United States, where the company typically begins testing new charging initiatives.
Tesla says that if the pilot program receives positive feedback, they will expand the system to more Superchargers this year.
The goal of Virtual Queuing is to improve the charging experience whenever wait times occur. According to Tesla, this would apply to roughly “~1% of cases,” though many high-demand Supercharger sites frequently experience long lines. While some remote locations may see little to no wait times, busier stations could greatly benefit from a structured queuing system.
Potential Implementations
While Tesla hasn’t detailed exactly how the Virtual Queuing system will work, there are a few likely possibilities. One approach could involve locking a vehicle’s VIN into the queue, preventing other vehicles from starting a charge prematurely. In this case, any attempt to charge out of turn might trigger a “Stall reserved for next vehicle in line” message.
This method would provide a straightforward solution—only the next vehicle in the queue would be able to initiate a session. The queuing process itself could be automated when a vehicle navigates to the Supercharger, factoring in estimated arrival time, or it might require manual enrollment once you arrive.
Tesla may also impose limits on queue validity. If a vehicle leaves the charging area, its position could be automatically forfeited.
Software Solution
In China, Superchargers sometimes include locks that come up from the ground, preventing non-Teslas from parking in these designated Supercharger spots. Up until recently, Tesla users had to open up the Tesla app and choose a stall before the lock would go down and allow them to park. However, with a recent update, this is all done on the vehicle’s screen, where the driver can pick the charging stall and automatically have the lock lower.
We may see a similar implementation, where a driver would choose to add themselves to the Supercharger queue, and their position in line and estimated wait time would then be viewable on the vehicle’s screen.
Reservation Signage
Tesla’s reservation about this new queuing system could be around driver confusion. Superchargers weren’t built with a queue system in mind, meaning that there’s no way to tell whether a stall is reserved for a specific vehicle.
A physical indicator could help owners quickly identify when a Supercharger stall is available for the next vehicle in the queue. Tesla could implement a system similar to grocery store checkout lights, where a change in lighting signals whether a register is open or closed.
For example, the Supercharger post could pulse blue when it’s ready for the next user, with a corresponding message in the vehicle stating, “Use the Supercharger post that is pulsing blue.” This would provide a clear, intuitive way to direct drivers to the correct stall.
Tesla can also display a menu inside a vehicle when it first arrives at a Supercharger, letting the driver know that there’s a wait time and explaining the process and their estimated wait time. It can also prompt the driver to be added to the queue.
Tesla Priority
Another factor to consider is how Tesla will handle non-Tesla vehicles in the queue. One possibility is giving priority access to Tesla owners or those subscribed to the Supercharger membership. This would ensure that Tesla vehicles and paying members receive preferred access at busy Supercharger sites, making the membership more valuable while also incentivizing Tesla ownership—especially as the network expands to other EV brands.
Regardless of whether Tesla introduces priority access, the Supercharger queuing system will be a valuable addition, particularly in high-traffic urban locations and during peak travel seasons. By having an official queue Tesla will create a smoother and more organized charging experience for all users.
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