The company referred to as Tesla without the drama can now be called Tesla with more sales and less drama. The final quarter of 2023 marked a significant milestone as BYD, a Chinese automaker, surged ahead of Tesla in EV sales. BYD sold an impressive 526,409 fully electric cars, eclipsing Tesla's delivery of 484,507 vehicles. We saw this coming after the third quarter, and if projections hold, Tesla will not be regaining the EV crown anytime soon.
Tesla’s fourth quarter was impressive; deliveries were up 38% year over year, and production was up 35% year over year. Plus, the company sold more Model S and Model X than it has during any quarter in the past five years. However, for a company that has projected 50% year-over-year growth and has been the unquestioned king of the EV sector, this performance falls a little flat, and it’s allowed one of the bigger threats to catch up.
BYD's performance in the fourth quarter was nothing short of extraordinary, with a record sale of 942,651 vehicles. This figure included a 55% share of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) and 45% of Plugin Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV). Notably, BYD transitioned away from Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles in April 2022, focusing entirely on electric and hybrid models.
The Competition is Here
The origins of BYD trace back to its foundation as a battery company, later expanding into automobile manufacturing in the mid-2000s. With the backing of notable investor Warren Buffet, BYD has often been paralleled with Tesla; however, the two companies differ significantly in their product offerings and business strategies. Tesla adopts an online direct sales model, whereas BYD leverages a vast dealer network for both its international expansion and dominance in its domestic market. BYD has demonstrated a commitment to nurturing its dealership network, a model often perceived as outdated.
The competition between BYD and Tesla is set to intensify in 2024. BYD is venturing into areas previously dominated by Tesla, such as self-developed autonomous driving systems and a direct sales model. This shift is evident in establishing two new EV brands, YangWang, and Fang Cheng Bao, which adopt direct sales strategies and expand their own sales networks. Fang Cheng Bao launched 154 showrooms and direct-operated stores in 84 cities in 2023, while YangWang aimed to open 90 stores in 40 cities by the year's end.
Conventional Cars in Demand
In contrast to Tesla's focus on advanced autonomous driving capabilities and high-tech interiors, BYD's vehicles feature more traditional interiors, emphasizing physical buttons and conventional design. The company's research and development primarily centers on battery technology, striving to offer high-quality vehicles at reasonable prices.
BYD's approach to business is characterized by vertical integration. The company, led by founder and CEO Wang Chuanfu, controls the entire production chain, from lithium mining to battery manufacturing, vehicle assembly, shipping logistics, and even car insurance. This strategy mirrors Tesla's approach to some extent, with both companies prioritizing cost efficiency and affordability.
For the year 2023, BYD's total electric vehicle sales soared to 3,023,679, a 62% increase from the previous year. Of these, 1,574,804 were BEVs. Conversely, Tesla delivered 1,808,581 vehicles in 2023, marking a 38% increase from 1,313,851 in 2022.
Despite BYD's impressive annual performance, Tesla maintained its lead in cumulative sales for the year. However, projections suggest BYD is poised to continue as the leading EV manufacturer in 2024.
Tesla’s been on a roll with Supercharger improvements lately, from the 325kW charging update for the Cybertruck, to 500kW with V4 Superchargers coming next year. While those improvements have been limited to the Cybertruck, Tesla didn’t put all their focus on their new flagship vehicle, but looked at their more affordable vehicles as well.
LFP Battery Heating
Tesla’s Superchargers can now heat LFP Batteries - those that are in the Model 3 and Model Y Rear Wheel Drive variants. This applies to Long Range and Standard Range models, which saw a limited run. This is another update included as part of the 2024 Tesla Holiday Update - which really arrived with a lot of unannounced new features and capabilities.
The change is pretty interesting - Superchargers of the V3 and V4 variety can now pre-heat batteries for Model 3 and Model Y vehicles equipped with LFP battery packs. That means those vehicles are able to get back on the road faster when it's extremely cold. Of course, Tesla still advises you to precondition before you arrive, saving drivers time and money.
Max de Zegher, Tesla’s Director of Charging, also commented on the new feature. Essentially, Tesla is inducing an AC (alternating) ripple current through the battery to warm it up. Keep in mind that Superchargers are DC charging. That means it is possible to get a cold-soaked LFP vehicle on the road 4x faster than before, assuming that it didn’t precondition at all and that it is in the worst-case scenario (below 0ºF).
In essence, Tesla is using some engineering magic to turn the circuits inside the LFP battery into an electric heater - and powering that heater through the Supercharger. An AC ripple current is a small oscillation in the DC charging current that generates heat through electrical resistance, warming up the battery. Those ripples are a byproduct of converting AC to DC and back - so Tesla is using the onboard charger to induce those ripples to warm up the battery. Definitely an innovative technique that’s really only possible with the versatility of the NACS connector.
We’re hoping Tesla can implement this across their full lineup of vehicles, but we’ll have to wait and see how it is trialed across LFP vehicles first and if it is even possible on vehicles with 2170 or 4680 battery packs.
Tesla launched two FSD updates simultaneously on Saturday night, and what’s most interesting is that they arrived on the same software version. We’ll dig into that a little later, but for now, there’s good news for everyone. For Hardware 3 owners, FSD V12.6.1 is launching to all vehicles, including the Model 3 and Model Y. For AI4 owners, FSD V13.2.4 is launching, starting with the Cybertruck.
FSD V13.2.4
A new V13 build is now rolling out to the Cybertruck and is expected to arrive for the rest of the AI4 fleet soon. However, this build seems to be focused on bug fixes. There are no changes to the release notes for the Cybertruck with this release, and it’s unlikely to feature any changes when it arrives on other vehicles.
FSD V12.6.1 builds upon V12.6, which is the latest FSD version for HW3 vehicles. While FSD V12.6 was only released for the redesigned Model S and Model X with HW3, FSD V12.6.1 is adding support for the Model 3 and Model Y.
While this is only a bug-fix release for users coming from FSD V12.6, it includes massive improvements for anyone coming from an older FSD version. Two of the biggest changes are the new end-to-end highway stack that now utilizes FSD V12 for highway driving and a redesigned controller that allows FSD to drive “V13” smooth.
It also adds speed profiles, earlier lane changes, and more. You can read our in-depth look at all the changes in FSD V12.6.
Same Update, Multiple FSD Builds
What’s interesting about this software version is that it “includes" two FSD updates, V12.6.1 for HW3 and V13.2.4 for HW4 vehicles. While this is interesting, it’s less special when you understand what’s happening under the hood.
The vehicle’s firmware and Autopilot firmware are actually completely separate. While a vehicle downloading a firmware update may look like a singular process, it’s actually performing several functions during this period. First, it downloads the vehicle’s firmware. Upon unpacking the update, it’s instructed which Autopilot/FSD firmware should be downloaded.
While the FSD firmware is separate, the vehicle can’t download any FSD update. The FSD version is hard-coded in the vehicle’s firmware that was just downloaded. This helps Tesla keep the infotainment and Autopilot firmware tightly coupled, leading to fewer issues.
What we’re seeing here is that HW3 vehicles are being told to download one FSD version, while HW4 vehicles are being told to download a different version.
While this is the first time Tesla has had two FSD versions tied to the same vehicle software version, the process hasn’t actually changed, and what we’re seeing won’t lead to faster FSD updates or the ability to download FSD separately. What we’re seeing is the direct result of the divergence of HW3 and HW4.
While HW3/4 remained basically on the same FSD version until recently, it is now necessary to deploy different versions for the two platforms. We expect this to be the norm going forward, where HW3 will be on a much different version of FSD than HW4. While each update may not include two different FSD versions going forward, we may see it occasionally, depending on which features Autopilot is dependent on.
Thanks to Greentheonly for helping us understand what happened with this release and for the insight into Tesla’s processes.
