Tesla's Model 3 is expected to lose half of its tax incentive
Tesla
Tesla has sounded the alarm bells once again regarding the potential reduction in the federal tax credit. As the year-end approaches, potential buyers may want to make a decision and possibly save some money, as there may be a significant impact on the final price tag of their electric car.
All new Model 3 vehicles currently qualify for a federal tax credit for eligible buyers. $7,500 tax credit expected to reduce to $3,750 on Dec 31, pending federal guidance. Take delivery to guarantee full incentive.
Changes to the Tax Credit
The 2024 tax credit's eligibility criteria will tighten. Specifically, the requirement for critical minerals used in batteries, such as those extracted or recycled within the U.S. (or nations with a U.S. free trade agreement), will increase from 40% to 50%. Furthermore, the mandate for battery components will also intensify, with 60% of these components needing domestic manufacturing or production within free trade agreement nations. Vehicles that don't meet these more stringent guidelines will only access half the credit, $3,750 USD.
A Flashback to July's Warning
We've heard the warning before. In July, Tesla made a somewhat ambiguous warning about the impending decrease of the coveted $7,500 tax credit on some of its vehicle models. Back then, while all Model Ys were eligible for the full credit, the base version of the Model 3 faced a restriction due to its use of Chinese battery cells. This particular battery choice made it eligible for just half the credit. The higher-end models, Model S and Model X, didn't qualify because of their premium pricing. In an exciting twist, Tesla announced that even the base Model 3 would be eligible for the full tax credit.
The Highland is Coming
Fast forward to the present, Tesla is again cautioning its consumers. It is worth noting that Tesla plans to roll out the new Model 3 Highland to North America in 2024. While it hasn't reached the U.S. shores yet, this development could be strategic. Clearing out stocks of the older design Model 3s before the Highland's U.S. debut could be why Tesla urges consumers to capitalize on the current tax incentives by taking delivery soon.
Also, Tesla missed its third-quarter projections. There are plenty of valid reasons behind having fewer deliveries. However, the point remains that the numbers were down. If we have learned anything about Elon Musk over the years, he likes to show constant improvement. We saw this late last year when Tesla rolled out some significant price decreases as the end of the year approached.
As we venture into 2024, some pivotal shifts are expected in the electric vehicle federal tax credit framework. The most notable change is the point of access - it will transition from a tax rebate to an immediate discount at the dealership.
Tesla reiterates concerns about the potential tax credit reduction, and prospective buyers must be proactive. The clock is ticking, and decisions made in the next few months could save some cash or be a moot point.
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Tesla’s been on a roll with Supercharger improvements lately, from the 325kW charging update for the Cybertruck, to 500kW with V4 Superchargers coming next year. While those improvements have been limited to the Cybertruck, Tesla didn’t put all their focus on their new flagship vehicle, but looked at their more affordable vehicles as well.
LFP Battery Heating
Tesla’s Superchargers can now heat LFP Batteries - those that are in the Model 3 and Model Y Rear Wheel Drive variants. This applies to Long Range and Standard Range models, which saw a limited run. This is another update included as part of the 2024 Tesla Holiday Update - which really arrived with a lot of unannounced new features and capabilities.
The change is pretty interesting - Superchargers of the V3 and V4 variety can now pre-heat batteries for Model 3 and Model Y vehicles equipped with LFP battery packs. That means those vehicles are able to get back on the road faster when it's extremely cold. Of course, Tesla still advises you to precondition before you arrive, saving drivers time and money.
Max de Zegher, Tesla’s Director of Charging, also commented on the new feature. Essentially, Tesla is inducing an AC (alternating) ripple current through the battery to warm it up. Keep in mind that Superchargers are DC charging. That means it is possible to get a cold-soaked LFP vehicle on the road 4x faster than before, assuming that it didn’t precondition at all and that it is in the worst-case scenario (below 0ºF).
In essence, Tesla is using some engineering magic to turn the circuits inside the LFP battery into an electric heater - and powering that heater through the Supercharger. An AC ripple current is a small oscillation in the DC charging current that generates heat through electrical resistance, warming up the battery. Those ripples are a byproduct of converting AC to DC and back - so Tesla is using the onboard charger to induce those ripples to warm up the battery. Definitely an innovative technique that’s really only possible with the versatility of the NACS connector.
We’re hoping Tesla can implement this across their full lineup of vehicles, but we’ll have to wait and see how it is trialed across LFP vehicles first and if it is even possible on vehicles with 2170 or 4680 battery packs.
Tesla launched two FSD updates simultaneously on Saturday night, and what’s most interesting is that they arrived on the same software version. We’ll dig into that a little later, but for now, there’s good news for everyone. For Hardware 3 owners, FSD V12.6.1 is launching to all vehicles, including the Model 3 and Model Y. For AI4 owners, FSD V13.2.4 is launching, starting with the Cybertruck.
FSD V13.2.4
A new V13 build is now rolling out to the Cybertruck and is expected to arrive for the rest of the AI4 fleet soon. However, this build seems to be focused on bug fixes. There are no changes to the release notes for the Cybertruck with this release, and it’s unlikely to feature any changes when it arrives on other vehicles.
FSD V12.6.1 builds upon V12.6, which is the latest FSD version for HW3 vehicles. While FSD V12.6 was only released for the redesigned Model S and Model X with HW3, FSD V12.6.1 is adding support for the Model 3 and Model Y.
While this is only a bug-fix release for users coming from FSD V12.6, it includes massive improvements for anyone coming from an older FSD version. Two of the biggest changes are the new end-to-end highway stack that now utilizes FSD V12 for highway driving and a redesigned controller that allows FSD to drive “V13” smooth.
It also adds speed profiles, earlier lane changes, and more. You can read our in-depth look at all the changes in FSD V12.6.
Same Update, Multiple FSD Builds
What’s interesting about this software version is that it “includes" two FSD updates, V12.6.1 for HW3 and V13.2.4 for HW4 vehicles. While this is interesting, it’s less special when you understand what’s happening under the hood.
The vehicle’s firmware and Autopilot firmware are actually completely separate. While a vehicle downloading a firmware update may look like a singular process, it’s actually performing several functions during this period. First, it downloads the vehicle’s firmware. Upon unpacking the update, it’s instructed which Autopilot/FSD firmware should be downloaded.
While the FSD firmware is separate, the vehicle can’t download any FSD update. The FSD version is hard-coded in the vehicle’s firmware that was just downloaded. This helps Tesla keep the infotainment and Autopilot firmware tightly coupled, leading to fewer issues.
What we’re seeing here is that HW3 vehicles are being told to download one FSD version, while HW4 vehicles are being told to download a different version.
While this is the first time Tesla has had two FSD versions tied to the same vehicle software version, the process hasn’t actually changed, and what we’re seeing won’t lead to faster FSD updates or the ability to download FSD separately. What we’re seeing is the direct result of the divergence of HW3 and HW4.
While HW3/4 remained basically on the same FSD version until recently, it is now necessary to deploy different versions for the two platforms. We expect this to be the norm going forward, where HW3 will be on a much different version of FSD than HW4. While each update may not include two different FSD versions going forward, we may see it occasionally, depending on which features Autopilot is dependent on.
Thanks to Greentheonly for helping us understand what happened with this release and for the insight into Tesla’s processes.
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