For years, the Tesla community has joked, "The competition is coming," because every EV talked about was suddenly the Tesla killer. Recent numbers show no competition for Tesla in North America; all the other manufacturers could pool their numbers together and still not come close to Tesla's sales.
The latest sales figures prompted Elon Musk to state once again, "The competition is coming." There's no denying that Musk's company has reshaped the automotive world's landscape, especially in North America, where its supremacy is almost undisputed. However, when we cast our eyes further East to China, a different story begins to unravel, and a formidable challenger, BYD, steps onto the stage. That casual comment is starting to sound increasingly prophetic.
Q3 Numbers Show BYD is Coming
The latest Q3 sales data reveals an intriguing trend. While Tesla delivered a commendable 435,059 pure electric cars, BYD was hot on its heels with sales of 431,603 pure electric passenger vehicles. This places BYD's EV sales at an impressive 99.21% of Tesla's for this quarter. To provide context, Tesla outsold BYD by more than 670,000 vehicles in the preceding six quarters. Now, the sales gap has narrowed dramatically to a mere 3,456 units.
Moreover, while Tesla's quarter-to-quarter growth experienced a dip of 6.7% (mainly due to factory shutdown for retooling and buyers awaiting the new Model 3), BYD's pure EV sales witnessed a significant surge, boasting a year-on-year growth of 66.9%. Current trends suggest BYD might even surpass Tesla in the upcoming Q4 sales.
Global EV Race Is Just Starting
Both companies manifest global ambitions, setting up vehicle factories in various parts of the world. Tesla's footprint extends worldwide, with an upcoming factory in Mexico. In contrast, BYD is bolstering its position with facilities in China and substantial investments in countries like Uzbekistan, Thailand, and Brazil. But, BYD is now looking at the North American market with a starting point in Mexico.
The global stage is set for fierce competition between these automotive giants. BYD's aggressive push into the Mexican market with its electric offerings, like the recently unveiled DOLPHIN, underlines its global ambitions. As the brand further cements its presence, with endeavors like expanding to 50 dealership stores across all 32 Mexican states, the groundwork for a North American entry seems to be laid.
Beyond just numbers, BYD's commitment to innovation is evident. The DOLPHIN, for instance, with its unique "Ocean Aesthetics design philosophy," its efficient fast-charging capability, and a range of 405 km, exemplifies the company's drive to merge aesthetics with performance. Additionally, their play isn't solely in the EV space; BYD's diverse technological background spanning over 28 years across different sectors sets them apart.
Competition is Good
Yet, framing this as a mere 'Tesla vs. BYD' scenario would be remiss. This growth and competition signify a more considerable momentum in the global shift towards sustainable transportation. As BYD expands its footprint, it reinforces the idea that the EV revolution is not a monopoly but a collective endeavor. However, for Tesla enthusiasts and market analysts alike, the movements of BYD, especially in China, are becoming impossible to ignore.
While Tesla has been enjoying its reign, BYD's recent strides remind us that the crown is up for grabs in the dynamic world of electric vehicles. Elon Musk's playful warning might have been more prescient than anyone realized: the competition is not just coming; it's already here.
Subscribe
Subscribe to our newsletter to stay up to date on the latest Tesla news, upcoming features and software updates.
It was a rainy April 1st when a news-searching author went on a delve into the depths of April Fools to find fact from falsehood. And while we found a lot of fantastic jokes, we also found some good ideas.
So, with a shoutout to MarcoRP on X, whose April Fool’s Joke gave us a good run for our money for a couple of minutes, we thought to ourselves - what would a Cybercab Charging Station / Cleaning Hub really look like?
Cybercab Wireless Charging Sites
Now, before continuing, we’d like to point out that the image up top is a joke from Marco - it isn’t an accurate or real site map submission from Tesla. However, it gave us the impetus to think critically about what is required for a Robotaxi fleet, based primarily on the Cybercab, to be able to service a city.
Requirements
Tesla will likely need to charge a small fleet of Cybercabs at a single time and in a single place. That means that the site needs to be large enough to cover a major metro area while also still being compact enough to not cost too much money to build out.
In addition, we need to factor in charge times. The Cybercab is likely to launch with a battery around 50 kWh, which will result in a range of approximately 300 miles. With that much range, the average Cybercab may not need to charge more than once or at all during daytime shifts, so instead, most of the vehicles will charge overnight.
MarcoRP
Math and Charge Times
The overnight charging means that most of these vehicles could be charged slowly. When we did some back-of-the-napkin math last year, we determined that Tesla’s wireless charger will likely peak around 17 kW (for comparison, Tesla’s Wall Connector at 32 amps charges at about 7 kW). If we scale Tesla’s wireless charger down slightly to 10 kW, accounting for some energy loss and the potential size of the site, that means a Cybercab will be able to charge in about 5 hours.
Tesla’s upcoming V4 Supercharger unit can currently handle 1.5MW per cabinet, but this slower-speed charging is A/C, not DC, which means there is a step-down loss of about 3-5%. Let’s make that a comfortable 10% for any other overages, but we can estimate around 1.35MW of power. That 1.3MW will easily handle charging up to 100 Cybercabs at once - all wirelessly, using Tesla’s unique beam-forming and beam-steering technology to keep efficiency high at every single stall.
Within about 5 hours, a whole fleet of 100 Cybercabs could be charged overnight when electricity rates are cheaper and still be out in time for the morning commute.
While this is all just hypothetical, it really does make sense that Tesla will be establishing these sites that won’t require much space or a ton of energy.
Tesla recently curtained off a large section of the parking garage at Giga Texas, as well as some of their chargers on the eastern end of the facility, leading us to believe they may just be testing this at scale internally.
There’s a lot to look forward to with Tesla’s V4 Supercharger deployment coming this year and with Robotaxi launching in just a couple of months.
Tesla released its Q1 2025 delivery and production numbers this morning, reporting 336,681 vehicles delivered and 362,615 produced—marking the company’s weakest quarter since 2022. Deliveries declined 13% year-over-year and fell well short of Wall Street estimates, which ranged from 360,000 to 370,000. Some analysts had forecast as many as 407,000 units.
Despite the shortfall, Tesla stock is actually up about 4% this morning, not only suggesting the market had already priced in weaker performance, but that this may be seen as the low point for the company. Tesla began delivering its refreshed Model Y in March, and production across all four Gigafactories was impacted by several weeks of downtime as Tesla retooled lines to accommodate the newer model. However, there’s no doubt that there is some brand impact from Elon Musk.
Comparing Numbers
Most of the deliveries—323,800 units—came from the Model 3 and Model Y lineup, while the “Other Models” category (including the Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X) accounted for 12,881 deliveries. That’s a 31% drop for Model 3/Y and a sharper 45% drop for the Other Models category compared to the previous quarter. However, comparing it to a more applicable Q1 2024, these numbers are only down about 13% for the Model 3/Y and down about 24% for the Model S/X and Cybertruck.
In terms of production, Tesla built 345,454 Model 3/Y vehicles and 17,161 from its “Other Models” line. The company attributed the production drop to the Model Y changeover but said the ramp is “going well.” This still leaves a large gap between production and delivery numbers, although they may not be as large as many had feared.
Q1 2025
Q1 2024
Q4 2024
Model 3/Y Deliveries
323,800
369,783
471,930
Model 3/Y Production
345,454
412,376
436,718
Other Models Deliveries
12,881
17,027
23,640
Other Models Production
17,161
20,995
22,727
Total Deliveries
336,681
386,810
495,570
Total Production
362,615
433,371
459,445
Cybertruck
One major weak point in Tesla’s numbers seems to be Cybertruck deliveries. While Tesla previously expected the Cybertruck to sell more than 250k units per year, we’re already seeing a decline in numbers. This is likely due to several factors, including the higher-than-expected price point of the truck, the unavailability of the RWD model, and the Cybertruck’s polarizing design, which may attract unwanted attention right now.
While the Cybertruck was ramping up production in 2024, making the lower numbers reasonable, the deliveries for Q1 2025 dropped drastically compared to the previous quarter. Cybertruck deliveries are estimated to be in the 5- 6k unit range for the quarter.
The good news to take away here is that the Single Motor variant of the Cybertruck appears to be nearing release. The price of the RWD version is expected to be about $60k USD before any incentives.
Q1 Earnings Call
Tesla announced their quarterly numbers this morning and posted on social media that they’ll live stream their Earnings Call on April 22nd.
This post was later edited to change “Q1 Earnings Call” to “Q1 Company Update.” It’s not clear whether there’s any significance in this change, but it could mean that Tesla has more to announce during the call.
The Company Update will occur on April 22nd at 2:30 PM PT / 5:30 PM ET. The standard Q&A session with executives and Musk is expected to follow the release of additional financial results for the quarter.
Tesla is set to launch its long-awaited Robotaxi service in June, and a cheaper, mass-market model is also planned for this year. With delivery numbers coming in soft and the refreshed Model Y just hitting the road, all eyes will be on forward-looking commentary during the update.
![Tesla Adds HEPA Filter to New Model 3, Will it Get Bioweapon Defense Mode? [Update: Tesla Edits Post]](https://www.notateslaapp.com/images/news/2023/new-model-3-hepa-filter_300w.jpg)
