For years, the Tesla community has joked, "The competition is coming," because every EV talked about was suddenly the Tesla killer. Recent numbers show no competition for Tesla in North America; all the other manufacturers could pool their numbers together and still not come close to Tesla's sales.
The latest sales figures prompted Elon Musk to state once again, "The competition is coming." There's no denying that Musk's company has reshaped the automotive world's landscape, especially in North America, where its supremacy is almost undisputed. However, when we cast our eyes further East to China, a different story begins to unravel, and a formidable challenger, BYD, steps onto the stage. That casual comment is starting to sound increasingly prophetic.
Q3 Numbers Show BYD is Coming
The latest Q3 sales data reveals an intriguing trend. While Tesla delivered a commendable 435,059 pure electric cars, BYD was hot on its heels with sales of 431,603 pure electric passenger vehicles. This places BYD's EV sales at an impressive 99.21% of Tesla's for this quarter. To provide context, Tesla outsold BYD by more than 670,000 vehicles in the preceding six quarters. Now, the sales gap has narrowed dramatically to a mere 3,456 units.
Moreover, while Tesla's quarter-to-quarter growth experienced a dip of 6.7% (mainly due to factory shutdown for retooling and buyers awaiting the new Model 3), BYD's pure EV sales witnessed a significant surge, boasting a year-on-year growth of 66.9%. Current trends suggest BYD might even surpass Tesla in the upcoming Q4 sales.
Global EV Race Is Just Starting
Both companies manifest global ambitions, setting up vehicle factories in various parts of the world. Tesla's footprint extends worldwide, with an upcoming factory in Mexico. In contrast, BYD is bolstering its position with facilities in China and substantial investments in countries like Uzbekistan, Thailand, and Brazil. But, BYD is now looking at the North American market with a starting point in Mexico.
The global stage is set for fierce competition between these automotive giants. BYD's aggressive push into the Mexican market with its electric offerings, like the recently unveiled DOLPHIN, underlines its global ambitions. As the brand further cements its presence, with endeavors like expanding to 50 dealership stores across all 32 Mexican states, the groundwork for a North American entry seems to be laid.
Beyond just numbers, BYD's commitment to innovation is evident. The DOLPHIN, for instance, with its unique "Ocean Aesthetics design philosophy," its efficient fast-charging capability, and a range of 405 km, exemplifies the company's drive to merge aesthetics with performance. Additionally, their play isn't solely in the EV space; BYD's diverse technological background spanning over 28 years across different sectors sets them apart.
Competition is Good
Yet, framing this as a mere 'Tesla vs. BYD' scenario would be remiss. This growth and competition signify a more considerable momentum in the global shift towards sustainable transportation. As BYD expands its footprint, it reinforces the idea that the EV revolution is not a monopoly but a collective endeavor. However, for Tesla enthusiasts and market analysts alike, the movements of BYD, especially in China, are becoming impossible to ignore.
While Tesla has been enjoying its reign, BYD's recent strides remind us that the crown is up for grabs in the dynamic world of electric vehicles. Elon Musk's playful warning might have been more prescient than anyone realized: the competition is not just coming; it's already here.
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Tesla signaled its intention to launch its first Robotaxi network in Austin, Texas, with company-owned and operated vehicles, back in January. This network will be Tesla’s first foray into truly autonomous vehicles - ones that aren’t being directly supervised by a driver. Later in February, Tesla’s executive team confirmed that the plans were on track for the launch of the Austin network both on X and during several interviews that they participated in.
At the end of February, we also found out that Tesla has applied for a Supervised Robotaxi license in California, where the network will also launch, but with safety drivers in place.
This is an ambitious plan, but FSD has really come a long way in the past year. FSD V12 was a massive step forward from V11, and V13 has made the experience smoother and safer than ever before. FSD V14 is expected to be another big step up with auto-regressive transformers and audio input.
Still on Track
Now, Elon has tripled down on the fact that Tesla will be launching their first autonomous robotaxi network in Austin - just two months away at this point. It seems that Tesla is fully set to launch their first fully unsupervised self-driving vehicles that will carry paying passengers in June.
Additional Cities
The best part is that Elon also confirmed that they’re targeting robotaxi networks launching in many cities within the United States by the end of this year. However, remember that this will be a Tesla-run network at first - Tesla owners won’t be able to add their vehicles to the Robotaxi fleet right away.
Adding Customer Vehicles
It will take some time before Tesla meets their strict internal safety requirements before it lets customers add their own vehicles to the network. Tesla’s executive team mentioned that they intend to let owners add their own vehicles to the fleet sometime in 2026. This happens to be the same time frame that Tesla plans to launch the Robotaxi across the United States, Mexico, and Canada — something that could only be done with customer-owned cars.
That final step will be bold—and it may come with complications, especially given that autonomous vehicle approval spans municipal, state or provincial, and even federal levels. There are plenty of regulatory hurdles ahead, but this is undoubtedly shaping up to be one of the most exciting times for Tesla.
Launch Event
With the Robotaxi network launching and Unsupervised FSD just around the corner, there’s a lot to get excited about. Tesla is expected to host a launch event at Gigafactory Texas in Austin to mark the debut of its first Robotaxi network. The company previously hinted that referral code users could receive invites—offering a rare chance to score an early ride in a Robotaxi outside the Hollywood studio lot.
Tesla’s engineering mule vehicles—used to test autonomy for future platforms—have resurfaced after an extended absence. The last time we saw them was back in July, when Tesla was gearing up for its initial We, Robot event. Since then, sightings have been scarce.
These vehicles typically signal that Tesla is testing new camera placements or validating FSD ground-truth data. This time, however, they appear to be outfitted exclusively with the updated camera hardware seen on the Cybercab.
New Sightings
The mules have now been spotted in Boston, Massachusetts, and Concord, New Hampshire—their first known appearances this far east. This suggests Tesla is actively collecting data to evaluate and optimize FSD performance in new regions. Thanks to Reddit user Ready_Medium_6693 for catching the one in Concord.
Elon Musk recently mentioned that Tesla plans to expand Robotaxi networks beyond the initial Texas and California launches. So while these sightings aren’t entirely unexpected, the speed of their arrival is. It suggests Tesla is confident in its ability to train FSD for local traffic rules and driving behaviors to the point it no longer needs a driver.
Bumper Cameras
The vehicle that’s been spotted in Boston is the usual Tesla engineering Model 3… except with one unique twist. It includes a front bumper camera. Shout out to @Dylan02939106 for catching the bumper camera in these photos.
The Refreshed Model 3 Mule with a Bumper Camera!
@Dylan02939106 on X
We previously released an opinion piece regarding whether the front bumper camera would be required for Unsupervised FSD. In our eyes, Tesla will require a bumper camera for Unsupervised FSD - if only to improve direct visibility in the bumper area of the vehicle. This is key for low-speed maneuvering in crowded areas like parking lots and garages, as well as for key features like Actually Smart Summon.
It isn’t surprising that Tesla is continuing to evaluate vehicles with a bumper camera - the Cybertruck, Cybercab, and Refreshed Model Y all have them now - and the rest of the lineup, including the flagship Model S and X, as well as the refreshed Model 3 - were supposed to eventually receive them as well.
With the Model S and Model X set for refreshes this year—and the front bumper camera on this Model 3 looking well-integrated rather than a temporary setup—it seems likely that front bumper cameras will soon become standard across Tesla’s entire lineup.
The Robotaxi Mule in Boston
@Dylan02939106 on X
In fact, Tesla’s newest iteration of the FSD computer has a slot for the Bumper Camera on all AI4/HW4 vehicles, so a future retrofit could even be possible.
These are some pretty exciting times - we may see Robotaxi networks actually deploy in time for Tesla’s lofty goal of “sometime in 2026” for cities throughout North America. Once many American cities begin to accept their deployment, it will be easier to seek homologation in Mexico and Canada, enabling deployment throughout the continent.
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