For years, the Tesla community has joked, "The competition is coming," because every EV talked about was suddenly the Tesla killer. Recent numbers show no competition for Tesla in North America; all the other manufacturers could pool their numbers together and still not come close to Tesla's sales.
The latest sales figures prompted Elon Musk to state once again, "The competition is coming." There's no denying that Musk's company has reshaped the automotive world's landscape, especially in North America, where its supremacy is almost undisputed. However, when we cast our eyes further East to China, a different story begins to unravel, and a formidable challenger, BYD, steps onto the stage. That casual comment is starting to sound increasingly prophetic.
Q3 Numbers Show BYD is Coming
The latest Q3 sales data reveals an intriguing trend. While Tesla delivered a commendable 435,059 pure electric cars, BYD was hot on its heels with sales of 431,603 pure electric passenger vehicles. This places BYD's EV sales at an impressive 99.21% of Tesla's for this quarter. To provide context, Tesla outsold BYD by more than 670,000 vehicles in the preceding six quarters. Now, the sales gap has narrowed dramatically to a mere 3,456 units.
Moreover, while Tesla's quarter-to-quarter growth experienced a dip of 6.7% (mainly due to factory shutdown for retooling and buyers awaiting the new Model 3), BYD's pure EV sales witnessed a significant surge, boasting a year-on-year growth of 66.9%. Current trends suggest BYD might even surpass Tesla in the upcoming Q4 sales.
Global EV Race Is Just Starting
Both companies manifest global ambitions, setting up vehicle factories in various parts of the world. Tesla's footprint extends worldwide, with an upcoming factory in Mexico. In contrast, BYD is bolstering its position with facilities in China and substantial investments in countries like Uzbekistan, Thailand, and Brazil. But, BYD is now looking at the North American market with a starting point in Mexico.
The global stage is set for fierce competition between these automotive giants. BYD's aggressive push into the Mexican market with its electric offerings, like the recently unveiled DOLPHIN, underlines its global ambitions. As the brand further cements its presence, with endeavors like expanding to 50 dealership stores across all 32 Mexican states, the groundwork for a North American entry seems to be laid.
Beyond just numbers, BYD's commitment to innovation is evident. The DOLPHIN, for instance, with its unique "Ocean Aesthetics design philosophy," its efficient fast-charging capability, and a range of 405 km, exemplifies the company's drive to merge aesthetics with performance. Additionally, their play isn't solely in the EV space; BYD's diverse technological background spanning over 28 years across different sectors sets them apart.
Competition is Good
Yet, framing this as a mere 'Tesla vs. BYD' scenario would be remiss. This growth and competition signify a more considerable momentum in the global shift towards sustainable transportation. As BYD expands its footprint, it reinforces the idea that the EV revolution is not a monopoly but a collective endeavor. However, for Tesla enthusiasts and market analysts alike, the movements of BYD, especially in China, are becoming impossible to ignore.
While Tesla has been enjoying its reign, BYD's recent strides remind us that the crown is up for grabs in the dynamic world of electric vehicles. Elon Musk's playful warning might have been more prescient than anyone realized: the competition is not just coming; it's already here.
Last night, Tesla released software update 2024.45.25.15, which includes FSD V12.6.1. This update adds support for all HW3 vehicles, including the Model 3 and Model Y. We’re excited to see the continued support for HW3 owners.
FSD V12.6.1
V12.6.1 is now going wide, according to Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s VP of AI. This update is going to the Model 3 and Model Y for the first time - as only the Model S and Model X were included in FSD V12.6.
V12.6 is a big step forward for HW3 - it includes End-to-End on Highway, Improved City Streets Behavior, and Smoother and More Accurate Tracking - all contributing towards a better, smoother, and more comfortable build of FSD. You can read our comparison between FSD V12.6 and V13.2.2 here.
In short, FSD V12.6 performs considerably closer to V13 than V12.5.4.2 - which is a massive improvement. It performs as well as the Cybertruck version of FSD V13, which is still missing a few features when compared to other HW4 vehicles, but it’s a great sign for HW3. A lot of the improvements can be pointed to in the improvements to lane selection and decision-making - the vehicle tends to hesitate far less on V12.6, meaning the ride is a lot smoother. Many early V12.6 testers mentioned that it felt more like V13-mini than anything else.
Legacy Model S & X
We haven’t seen this update hit any legacy Model S and Model X vehicles just yet. We’re not sure whether Ashok’s statement of “generally” applies here - but it should. If you do get the update, please let us know.
Legacy Model S and Model X vehicles are still on an older FSD build and potentially won’t see another FSD update for a little while longer. While they do have the same FSD hardware as other vehicles, there are enough hardware differences that require a build specifically for these vehicles.
FSD V12.6.1 is going out now to the redesigned Model S and X with HW3 and all Model 3 and Model Y vehicles with HW3. The initial wave went out last night, and we expect to see more later today or tomorrow. If this release ends up going “wide,” we should see much larger waves go out next week.
Tesla has issued a recall for some vehicles due to issues linked to a revision of the Hardware 4 (HW4) computer that was introduced this past November. This recall affects all vehicles with the revised hardware except for the Cybertruck, as it uses a slightly modified version of the HW4 system.
Many vehicle owners have reported a complete failure of their Autopilot computer, which not only leaves the vehicle without FSD and Autopilot but also disables many of the active safety features that make a Tesla what it is.
Let’s take a look at this recall - because the recall is partially physical and partially a software recall.
HW4 Failure
Tesla has identified the failure and flagged it to the U.S. NHTSA (but not Transport Canada or Euro NCAP at the time of publishing) as a recall.
Tesla mentions that the vehicle’s FSD computer circuit board may short circuit, resulting in the loss of the rearview camera image. The recall itself is focused on the rearview camera - as not having a functional rearview camera breaks a Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard. However, it does impact more than just the rearview camera.
As previously mentioned, users have experienced the full loss of Autopilot and FSD on these vehicles, as well as reduced traction control and removal of safety features such as automatic emergency braking, collision avoidance assist, and forward collision warnings.
While the vehicle remains driveable, it is not necessarily a good idea to drive the vehicle with many of these features, especially with the reduced traction control noted by many people. We’ve already noted that while Tesla has been sending tow trucks to pick up some vehicles, it is also prompting owners to drive the vehicle to their service center in some cases.
Remedy
Unlike most of Tesla’s recalls, this one isn’t entirely an OTA recall, owing to the fact that people have already experienced circuit board shorts and are already waiting for replacements.
The software portion of the recall has already been mostly completed for any vehicles with Tesla software update 2024.45.25.3 or greater. However, a significant portion of the tracked fleet remains on update 2024.44.25.2 (approximately 20%), so we recommend updating your HW4 vehicle whenever you receive the notification.
On the hardware side, Tesla is immediately identifying and replacing hardware that has had circuit board failure. Tesla is also reaching out to customers who have expressed intermittent issues with Autopilot features, active safety features, or vehicle cameras that don't display correctly. If you have experienced any of these issues in a late 2024 vehicle, we recommend submitting a service ticket with Tesla to ensure that your vehicle isn’t affected by this recall.
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