A rendering of what the Model 3 refresh could look like
Cybrtrk420/Twitter
We don't need to read tea leaves or look into a crystal ball to predict that Tesla's Model 3 refresh, a.k.a the Highland, is fast approaching its release date. However, there's even more evidence emerging that backs up what we have already figured out. The Highland is ready.
It is Tesla's worst-kept secret, and China's sales figures for July 2023 prove it. Despite a year-over-year increase, there has been a 31 percent decline in sales from June. Shoppers are eagerly awaiting the newest version of the Model 3 and don't want to spend money on something that will be the "old" model next month. This is further reinforced by Tesla's recent filing with the Chinese government, seeking what looks to be approval for the redesigned 'Highland' Model 3.
Production and Market Expectations
According to X (Twitter) users Chris Zheng, and WuWa (who have provided a lot of excellent inside information), Tesla has begun producing its latest Model 3 at its Giga Shanghai facility. With the production lines currently alternating between the older and newer Model 3, a complete transition to the Highland Refresh is expected by mid-August, August 14 to be exact, suggesting a possible release of the vehicle as early as September.
This calculated maneuver coincides with extended delivery times for the Model 3 in the European market. Since European Model 3 units come from Giga Shanghai, this aligns seamlessly with the timelines required to ship the newly produced cars from China to Europe.
Features and Innovations of the Highland Refresh
The Highland Refresh is not just a cosmetic enhancement; it promises to be a significant upgrade. The next-generation Model 3 is poised to exhibit design updates and substantial improvements in hardware and production processes. Features such as ventilated seats, improved interior lighting, and Smart Shift are expected to be included. The Model 3 refresh is also expected to be lighter and more cost-efficient to manufacture, this model also integrates hardware 4.0 and at least one additional camera mounted on the front bumper.
Anticipated Launch and Impact on the Market
As Tesla gears up for this monumental event, it will continue to face a challenge to convince prospective buyers to purchase the existing Model 3, you know, that one that was cutting-edge technology just a few minutes ago.
Production is expected to be in full swing at both Giga Shanghai and Fremont factories by the end of the month. This unveiling could significantly stimulate demand in the fourth quarter. Interestingly, the fourth quarter starts October 1, and the last day you can transfer Full Self Driving to a new vehicle is September 30. Sign, sign, everywhere a sign.
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Last week, Mark Ruber, an engineering YouTuber best known for his glitter bombs, released a video where he tested Tesla's Autopilot against various conditions - including the iconic ACME painted wall.
During this test, many people noted that Mark was using Autopilot rather than FSD, even though his video was titled “Can you Fool a Self-Driving Car?”. The Tesla on Autopilot went up against a vehicle equipped with Luminar’s LIDAR rig, running some sort of basic autonomy or safety software.
New Video Tests FSD
Many people were disappointed with Mark’s video and his testing methods, so several creators got to work to actually test out Tesla’s FSD.
Creator Kyle Paul over on X made a much better follow-up video, using both a HW3 Model Y as well as an AI4 Cybertruck. In a relatively unsurprising turn of events, the Cybertruck was successfully able to detect the wall, slowed down, and came to a stop. The Cybertruck was running FSD 13.2.8.
Kyle’s team did a fantastic job building the wall and testing this in a private area using FSD rather than Autopilot. On top of that - they re-tested the results several times and recorded the entire thing in and out. While Mark’s video was more for entertainment, Kyle really set out to prove what would really happen in this unlikely scenario.
Sadly, the HW3 Model Y was unable to detect the wall, and manual intervention was required in each test. While the Model Y was running FSD 12.5.4.2 rather than an FSD V12.6 build, we don’t expect this to have had a significant impact on the test - this is more of an issue with how computer vision analyzes the environment.
There are several major differences between HW3 and HW4. The first is obviously that the version that runs on AI4 is more advanced, as the hardware is capable of processing a lot more data. However, AI4 also features much higher-resolution cameras than HW3, and Tesla recently added the ability for the video feeds to be processed at full resolution on FSD V13. This could have made the difference, although it’s not entirely clear. Perhaps if HW3 gets a version of FSD V13 in the future, HW3 can be retested to see if it passes the “ACME wall” test.
Watch
Kyle’s entire video is below. It’s only 10 minutes long, so definitely give it a watch. Props to Kyle on the quick and thorough execution.
What Does This Mean for FSD?
We broke down Mark’s test - and examined all the little issues that we discovered after doing some in-depth research - you can read our analysis here.
Putting aside the issues with Mark’s testing and instead using the new results - it seems that if you were to have to fight against Wile-E-Coyote and his ACME tools with your Tesla, cartoon logic may win if you’re on an HW3 vehicle. If you’re on an AI4 vehicle, you’ll likely come to a safe stop.
Vehicle depth perception is definitely something that Tesla has been hard at work to improve - and some fairly drastic improvements came with FSD V13 that haven’t been entirely translated to FSD V12 just yet. Future versions of HW3 FSD may be able to determine that the wall is there successfully. So Kyle - if you’re reading this - don’t get rid of that wall. We’d love to see more testing in the future.
However, this entire test scenario is so out of left field… there is a good likelihood this same test would fool some human drivers as well. The most important part is that the future of autonomy will not fall for these tricks, so it's very unlikely for someone to weaponize this idea as it’d only possibly work on a small segment of vehicles.
If Wile-E-Coyote is after you, someone else may drive into the wall before your Tesla does.
Not a Tesla App
We’re not kidding, this really happened already. This isn’t a realistic scenario outside of someone trying to play an insane prank - but it’s good to know that FSD V13 is capable of dodging this.
Tesla regularly holds quarterly all-hands meetings for employees, but last night marks the first time Tesla has live-streamed the event for the public.
The meeting primarily focused on Tesla’s employees, recent achievements, and the future of Tesla. While it didn’t reveal much new information, it was interesting to see Elon Musk candidly engaging with his teams, who seem to genuinely enjoy working with him. Still, there were a few noteworthy takeaways.
As with Tesla’s Earnings Calls and other live events, we’ve put together a concise, easy-to-digest recap of everything discussed.
General Points
Work-related Injuries declined over time
Planning to expand to new markets
Cell Manufacturing
Continuing to invest in battery supply
Cheapest, lowest cost per kWh cell
The supercharger network continues to grow
Vehicle range and charging speed should match the needs of humans and their required time for breaks
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