Musk is more specific about his FSD claims this time around
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Elon Musk has once again stated Tesla's cars will be fully self-driving by the end of the year. The claim, made during an AI conference in China (video below), is the latest entry in a long string of such predictions from Musk. Despite the seemingly unfaltering progress of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, the authenticity of Musk's claims has been questioned due to his history of similar yet unfulfilled promises.
The Most Recent Claim: A More Definitive Prediction?
In his latest statement, Musk ventured to be more specific about Tesla's progress. He suggested the company is on the cusp of achieving Level 4 or even Level 5 autonomous driving. According to the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE), these levels signify full autonomy in specific conditions (Level 4) or all conditions (Level 5).
The levels of vehicle automation as defined by SAE
SAE
However, this prediction has been met with skepticism, and understandably so. After all, Musk has previously set and then missed similar timelines for Tesla's full self-driving capabilities. The question on everyone's mind is whether this renewed specificity indicates an imminent breakthrough or just another overly optimistic prediction.
Musk's Full Autonomy Promises: A Brief History
Elon Musk has a track record of optimism regarding Tesla's autonomous capabilities. As early as 2016, Musk stated that all cars Tesla sold would be capable of self-driving. Through subsequent software updates, these vehicles would eventually exceed human safety performance in driving, creating a paradigm shift in personal transportation.
As ambitious as this claim was, it was embraced with excitement by Tesla's avid fan base and many technology enthusiasts alike. After all, the concept of a car that can safely ferry its passengers from point A to point B without human intervention seems like a future worth waiting for.
However, the waiting has been longer than Musk initially suggested. Since the release of the FSD Beta, Tesla's path toward a self-driving future has become somewhat obscured. Phrases such as "feature complete" and "capable of driving at a level safer than humans" have begun to populate Tesla's communications about their self-driving technology. However, a clear timeline or roadmap detailing when the FSD will transition from beta to a fully realized product has been less apparent.
The Autonomous Driving Landscape: Looking Beyond Tesla
The quest for full autonomy is not just a Tesla story; it's an industry-wide endeavor. Tesla might be the most vocal about its self-driving ambitions, but they are far from being the only player in the field. Many other automakers and tech companies are tirelessly working towards similar goals, each with its approach and timeline.
The implications of achieving full autonomy are immense. The potential benefits are significant, from a decrease in traffic accidents to the possibility of a fully automated taxi service. However, reaching this future is not just a matter of technological achievement. It also involves overcoming regulatory hurdles, societal acceptance, and a host of ethical considerations.
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Emissions Pooling is an incentive-based program supported by various governments—most notably the European Union—to help automakers meet strict carbon reduction goals under Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards.
CAFE standards mandate that automakers reduce the average CO₂ emissions across their fleet of newly manufactured vehicles. The EU’s 2025 targets are particularly aggressive, and manufacturers risk hefty fines if a sufficient portion of their new vehicles aren’t low- or zero-emission.
Emission Pool
Emissions pooling is a regulatory mechanism that allows automakers to combine their fleet CO₂ emissions to collectively meet environmental targets. Companies with low or zero emissions—like Tesla—can partner with higher-emitting automakers to help reduce their combined average and avoid costly fines.
In practice, this means pool members purchase emissions credits from Tesla, which uses its all-electric lineup to generate surplus credits. These credits help other manufacturers offset their emissions, while Tesla earns a tidy profit.
Tesla has long capitalized on this model, regularly selling emissions credits to strengthen its financials. Now, its European Union emissions pool is expanding again—with Honda and Suzuki joining existing members like Stellantis, Toyota, Ford, Mazda, and Subaru.
Green Bottom Line
Every automaker in Tesla’s emissions pool is effectively buying credits from a company with a 100% zero-emission fleet. In Q4 2024 alone, Tesla earned $692 million from regulatory and emissions credits, making up nearly 30% of its quarterly net income.
That’s a major chunk of profit driven by programs like emissions pooling—and with Honda now onboard, Tesla gains a significant new partner (and revenue stream) in the EU.
Tesla quietly included a cabin radar in its vehicles for several years before recently activating it through software update 2025.2. Tesla now uses the interior radar for several features, and later this year will add additional features that take advantage of the interior radar.
Cabin Radar Features
The first feature Tesla developed that uses the cabin radar is front row cabin sensing. Instead of relying on sensors in the seats to detect occupancy, Tesla now uses the radar to determine where people are sitting in the vehicle. The radar is much more accurate than a seat sensor, so not only will it prevent false positives that occur when placing a heavy object on the passenger seat, but it could also improve reliability by reducing the number of parts in the vehicle.
In future updates, Tesla intends to expand the occupancy sensing to the rear of all of its supported vehicles, which will help improve vehicle safety by correctly deploying airbags as needed on a dynamic basis.
Regular Radar vs 4D Radar
The 4D radar is Tesla’s latest iteration of the radar, which is capable of even more sensing features. While many of these features are still a work in progress and haven’t been enabled, we recently covered what’s coming for the cabin radar. For now, these 4D radars are limited to the Cybertruck and the refreshed Model Y, but Tesla intends to expand the 4D radar to other vehicles as parts become available. Older vehicles include a different part number for the cabin radar, but it’s not clear if or how that will affect upcoming cabin radar features.
Upcoming Cabin Radar Features
In Q3 2025, Tesla intends to add child-presence detection, as well as health-detection for critical emergencies. In short, the radar is a safety-focused addition and will be able to help protect an individual left behind in a vehicle.
In addition to child detection, the radar will also determine passenger sizes to dynamically determine which airbags to deploy, which can help reduce airbag injuries for shorter individuals sitting in the front seats.
The radar can automatically note if a child or baby is left behind in the vehicle and will notify you via the Tesla app immediately. It will also turn on the HVAC system to ensure their safety. In the case of an emergency, the vehicle can also automatically call emergency services in some cases and even report its location.
As a reminder, while Tesla vehicles outside of the United States support eCall, vehicles within the US cannot call 911 unless a phone is connected to the vehicle via Bluetooth. We hope that Tesla looks to add similar capabilities in North America to improve safety capabilities.
Which Vehicles Have Cabin Radars?
Tesla’s more recent lineup of vehicles includes cabin radars, but this isn’t an exact science, and we’ll explain why a bit further below.
Tesla includes the cabin radar on the 2024+ Model 3 and some 2022+ Model Ys. It’s also included on all refresh Model Ys, the Cybertruck and some 2021+ Model S and Model X vehicles, however, the exact hardware version of the cabin radar does differ between models. While there are different hardware versions for the cabin radar, it’s not clear whether all hardware versions will support all features in the future.
To complicate things further, some pre-refresh Model Ys (late 2022+) are already equipped with the cabin radar, while others are receiving a notice from Tesla to come in and have the radar installed. This is due to Tesla using the radar for driver and passenger occupancy sensing.
As such, some older Model Ys and Model 3s may either be equipped with the cabin radar or may receive a notification from Tesla to have it equipped to address the occupancy sensor recall.
Model S and Model X vehicles manufactured from approximately September 2024 should also include the cabin radar sensors, but it’s best to check to be sure. We’ve got some instructions below on how to do just that.
How to Check If You Have a Cabin Radar
There’s actually an easy way to check whether your vehicle has a cabin radar. To do this, you’ll need to enter Tesla’s Service Mode, which is aimed at technicians, but it’s perfectly safe to do so as long as you exit it before driving and don’t change any settings.
If you’re not sure how to access Service Mode, check out our Service Mode guide that will walk you through the process. Once you’re in Service Mode, use the menu on the left to navigate to the Safety & Restraints section and thenchoose Seats.
You’ll be presented with the seats panel that shows passenger occupancy. Between the two front seats, you’ll see a green box below or above the virtual screen. Tap on it and it’ll either say Restraints Control Module (RCM) or Cabin Radar (ICR).
Location of Cabin Radar
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On supported vehicles, the cabin radar is located between the two front seats above the rearview mirror.
Future Features
We expect Tesla to continue to develop features that rely on the vehicle’s cabin radar. Dog Mode, for instance, could be turned on automatically if you leave your pooch inside the vehicle and fail to turn on Dog Mode. Tesla can also trigger the rear HVAC fan even when the seat occupancy sensor isn’t triggered, which happens regularly with child seats.
Tesla is also expected to stop including seat sensors in every seat and instead rely on the cabin camera to detect passengers, reducing the cost of each vehicle. As with other Tesla features, new feature ideas on how to leverage the cabin sensor will come later as owners and product owners think of other clever uses for the new hardware.
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