Musk's Bold Prediction: Tesla FSD To Reach Level 4 or Higher This Year

July 9, 2023

By Kevin Armstrong

Musk is more specific about his FSD claims this time around

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Elon Musk has once again stated Tesla's cars will be fully self-driving by the end of the year. The claim, made during an AI conference in China (video below), is the latest entry in a long string of such predictions from Musk. Despite the seemingly unfaltering progress of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, the authenticity of Musk's claims has been questioned due to his history of similar yet unfulfilled promises.

The Most Recent Claim: A More Definitive Prediction?

In his latest statement, Musk ventured to be more specific about Tesla's progress. He suggested the company is on the cusp of achieving Level 4 or even Level 5 autonomous driving. According to the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE), these levels signify full autonomy in specific conditions (Level 4) or all conditions (Level 5).

The levels of vehicle automation as defined by SAE

SAE

However, this prediction has been met with skepticism, and understandably so. After all, Musk has previously set and then missed similar timelines for Tesla's full self-driving capabilities. The question on everyone's mind is whether this renewed specificity indicates an imminent breakthrough or just another overly optimistic prediction.

Musk's Full Autonomy Promises: A Brief History

Elon Musk has a track record of optimism regarding Tesla's autonomous capabilities. As early as 2016, Musk stated that all cars Tesla sold would be capable of self-driving. Through subsequent software updates, these vehicles would eventually exceed human safety performance in driving, creating a paradigm shift in personal transportation.

As ambitious as this claim was, it was embraced with excitement by Tesla's avid fan base and many technology enthusiasts alike. After all, the concept of a car that can safely ferry its passengers from point A to point B without human intervention seems like a future worth waiting for.

However, the waiting has been longer than Musk initially suggested. Since the release of the FSD Beta, Tesla's path toward a self-driving future has become somewhat obscured. Phrases such as "feature complete" and "capable of driving at a level safer than humans" have begun to populate Tesla's communications about their self-driving technology. However, a clear timeline or roadmap detailing when the FSD will transition from beta to a fully realized product has been less apparent.

The Autonomous Driving Landscape: Looking Beyond Tesla

The quest for full autonomy is not just a Tesla story; it's an industry-wide endeavor. Tesla might be the most vocal about its self-driving ambitions, but they are far from being the only player in the field. Many other automakers and tech companies are tirelessly working towards similar goals, each with its approach and timeline.

The implications of achieving full autonomy are immense. The potential benefits are significant, from a decrease in traffic accidents to the possibility of a fully automated taxi service. However, reaching this future is not just a matter of technological achievement. It also involves overcoming regulatory hurdles, societal acceptance, and a host of ethical considerations.

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Tesla To Launch Four New Battery Cells in 2026

October 17, 2024

By Karan Singh

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According to an article published by The Information in early October, Tesla intends to introduce four new types of 4680 batteries in 2026. We already know that Tesla has been working hard on new batteries. The Cybercell - the upgraded 4680, is already a new design meant specifically to get the Cybertruck and future vehicles off the ground.

Tesla has also been working on Solid-State Batteries, but even with Tesla’s technological and engineering prowess, that technology is still quite far out.

The 4680 Cell

To put things in context, the 4680 cell is Tesla’s replacement for the older 2710 cells present in most Model 3s and Model Ys. Tesla has been producing these cells for a long time and has optimized them considerably, both in terms of scale of manufacturing and engineering.

But the tech behind the 2170 cell is old, and 4680 will be Tesla’s next leap forward. They previously tried with the much-maligned 4680 Model Y, but it was quickly pulled from sale. They tried again with the Cybercell—and that went much better. So much better, in fact, that Tesla is working on enhancing the Cybercell even further—using a Dry Cathode Process to make the cell easier and cheaper to manufacture.

The Trouble with 4680

According to The Information, an inside source at Tesla has said that Tesla is losing 70-80% of its anodes—one of the two parts that move electrons from the cell to the vehicle—in test production. Tesla has been working hard to solve this, and they recently demoed a Dry Cathode Process Cybertruck.

First prototype Cybertruck with in-house dry cathode 4680 cells – making it an all dry electrode vehicle pic.twitter.com/NzJxKQrRBp
— Cybertruck (@cybertruck) August 2, 2024

The 4680 cell is the next leap in large battery packs, but it's a difficult leap to make. Tesla is having trouble moving its research and development to engineering, but it's just a matter of time. Today, the 4680 is primarily made at the Fremont factory in California, but Tesla intends to move parts of its future battery chain production to a new area outside Giga, Texas.

With that new zone, they intend to establish the 4680’s dry cathode process production facility—to produce the 4680D Cell. According to Musk, that move will cut the 4680's production costs by nearly 30%.

The New Batteries

The four cells that Tesla plans to introduce in 2026 have some interesting code names. The first is “NC05.” The NC stands for New Cell, but we’re sure Tesla will come up with a witty name once it comes out of R&D.

NC05 Battery

This cell is intended to be the easy-to-manufacture cell that will power the Cybercab and will likely also power the lower-cost $25,000 model—which we’re still expecting to see sometime next year.

NC20 Battery

The next size up, the NC20, is intended to power Tesla’s SUV lineup and the Cybertruck. This will be a larger-format cell intended for moving larger and heavier vehicles and possibly optimized for towing—a constraint the Cybertruck, on its current 4680s, can find challenging in harsh winter conditions.

NC30 & NC50 Batteries

The NC30 and NC50 are the other two cells that The Information lists, but they’ll be drastically different. They won’t be using the standard cell materials that we’ve seen used up to this point. This is where the focus of Tesla’s R&D likely lies - they intend to introduce cells using silicon carbon into the anodes. Silicon Carbon, or SiC, can hold and move electrons faster than traditional anode materials.

These cells are likely where Tesla will make significant strides in both faster charging times and improved energy output. The advanced anode design, which allows for greater energy transfer, is poised to play a crucial role in Tesla's push for ultra-fast Supercharging.

The NC30 will eventually end up in the Cybertruck and Tesla’s future SUV lineup - maybe a refreshed Model X or Model Y.

The NC50, on the other hand, will be focused on performance and a smaller cell. It’ll power the new Tesla Roadster and likely Tesla’s performance models, such as the Plaid, Performance, and Beast variants.

The Information didn’t provide any information on whether Tesla will utilize this tech on its Powerwalls or Megapacks just yet, but it's likely that both of those two products will see further cost optimization and efficiency gains as well.

We’re excited to see where Tesla takes its battery tech in the future, as charging times and vehicle range are still one thing preventing the mass adoption of electric vehicles.

We're Launching Our Redesign: See What's Included

October 17, 2024

By Karan Singh

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We’ve been working behind the scenes on a few updates for our readers. We recently saw the unveiling of the Robotaxi and even some leaks of the Model Y refresh. This time, it's our turn for a refresh.

Let’s take a quick peek at the changes coming next week.

New Navigation

One key feature of our site refresh is an updated navigation. The new nav better organizes our content under one of three sections: News, Software Updates, or Guides. Once you tap on a category, you’ll be presented with the pages for that section.

This will also allow us to expose a lot more of our news content — letting you dig down into Robotaxi news, Project Juniper, or specific models. In a future update, we’ll also introduce a new Popular section, letting you easily catch up on news by viewing the best content on the site.

Dark Mode+

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Along with the new navigation and some tweaked site colors, we’re also happy to introduce an updated dark mode with new, smoother colors that will be easier on the eyes. It’ll keep our night owls happy and keep your eyes nice and comfy whether you’re using it during the day or night.

Auto-Updating Statistics

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We recently also launched auto-updating statistics for each of Tesla’s software updates. These stats let you view the number of installations and rollout of each Tesla update, giving you a better idea of which updates are still rolling out and which are paused.

More Features

We’re also actively working on a couple of other projects, so stay tuned for more features coming soon.

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