Tesla's Supercharging network could become a central pillar to Tesla's profits
Tesla
In a striking turn of events, Tesla's Supercharger network — the globe's sole fast-charging infrastructure for electric vehicles — has been appraised by industry analysts to exceed $100 billion potentially. This evaluation, by one of the top Tesla experts, sends ripples across the EV charging business, marking a critical point for Tesla and the wider industry.
North American Standard NACS Connector Boosts Tesla’s Lead
Initially, Tesla's Supercharger network was meant as a perk for Tesla car owners, not a profit center. However, a fully developed EV charging market didn't materialize as expected, particularly in North America. Thus, automakers like GM and Ford have jumped on board, adopting Tesla’s NACS connector to provide their EV buyers access to Tesla’s Supercharger network. This is set to consolidate Tesla's position in the EV charging business, particularly in North America.
Morgan Stanley Forecasts and Scenarios for Supercharger Network
Adam Jonas, a highly regarded Tesla analyst at Morgan Stanley who also recently downplayed the Cybertruck, has extrapolated the potential value of the Supercharger business to Tesla. Jonas's team envisages a future where Tesla produces and stores its solar electricity to power Superchargers. By crunching the numbers, including assumed percentages of US electric vehicle miles in 2030, Supercharger market share, miles per kWh efficiency, and kWh revenue, several future scenarios emerged.
Understanding the Role of NOPAT in Tesla's Valuation
An important element in these scenarios is the Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT) concept. NOPAT is a company's potential profit after taking out the costs of goods sold and operating expenses before deducting interest and taxes. It's used to gauge operating efficiency and profitability without considering the effects of the company's capital structure or debt.
To break it down, Jonas presents four unique cases:
The "reasonable case" estimates a 10% penetration of EV miles, Tesla's Supercharging capturing 50% of the market, and a 30% NOPAT margin. This scenario pegs the net present value at $3 per share.
The "plausible case" forecasts 20% penetration, Tesla capturing 70% of Supercharging, and a 50% NOPAT margin, resulting in a net present value of $14 per share.
The "dominant case" anticipates a 30% EV miles penetration, an 80% Tesla Supercharging share, and a 70% NOPAT margin, culminating in a net present value of $33 per share.
Lastly, the "monopoly case" foresees 50% EV miles penetration, Tesla seizing 100% of Supercharging, and an 80% NOPAT margin, leading to an astounding net present value of $78 per share.
Given Tesla's massive number of shares, surpassing 3 billion, the Supercharger network's valuation crosses $100 billion at a per-share price of $33.
This hefty valuation of Tesla's Supercharger network underscores the substantial profit potential waiting to be unlocked in the EV charging infrastructure. It also signifies the unyielding lead Tesla has carved out in the EV market, not just with their electric vehicles but also their charging network. As more automakers pivot towards Tesla's charging standard, this $100 billion valuation may indicate more seismic shifts in the EV industry.
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The Cybertruck is having an eventful November. Just last week, we shared the news that Tesla isn’t offering their in-house wrap service for the Cybertruck anymore; the Foundation Series is now available in inventory in select US locations, Crossbars have arrived, and faster charging is around the corner. Now there’s even more to discuss about the stainless steel beast.
Projection Puddle Lights
Like the recently launched puddle lights for the Model 3 and Model Y, Tesla has introduced a set of add-on Projector Puddle Lights for the Cybertruck. These Cybertruck-specific ones go for $75 USD, or $105 CAD and are available in both the Canadian and US Tesla stores.
However, these don’t have the Tesla wordmark - instead, they feature the iconic Cybertruck symbol and, in our opinion, look even nicer. Here’s to hoping Tesla also introduces a set with the graffiti-style Cybertruck wordmark.
Powershare in Canada
While the Foundation Series Cybertruck has been getting delivered in Canada since November 7th, there was no news on Powershare being supported due to regulatory constraints. On the 20th, Foundation Series owners in Canada began to receive emails to get their Powershare installs started through Tesla’s official installer - Qmerit.
More to follow on pricing and the process as we receive our Canadian quote from Qmerit soon.
FSD in Canada
The Cybertruck Program Manager, Siddhant Awasthi, confirmed that with Powershare now becoming available, FSD for the Cybertruck in Canada will also become available soon. Canadian trucks shipped with a factory software build that didn’t include FSD, but did include TACC and stoplight/traffic control.
Early this morning Tesla began rolling out a new version of FSD 12.5.5.3 for the Cybertruck, which is update 2024.39.5. Will this be the version that rolls out in Canada?
Following Integrated Flight Test 6 for SpaceX’s Starship, Elon Musk confirmed that uncrewed Starships are likely to begin making their way to Mars in about 2 years. You’re probably going to ask what’s going to be in those Starships - that’s what Brett Winston on X asked as well. Elon confirmed that Cybertrucks and Optimus robots will be among some of the first items landing on Mars.
That’s a ton of awesome news for Cybertruck, and there’s absolutely going to be more around the corner, especially as we await the big Tesla Holiday Update. While you wait, why not take a look at our Holiday Update Wishlists?
Tesla software update 2024.44.3 has started rolling out to customers in larger waves recently and it brings several new features - including Actually Smart Summon to Europe and the Middle East, as well as improvements to Autopark. But that’s not all, it also adds a new Blind Spot Monitoring feature to the new Model 3, and potentially the Cybertruck, but that’s still to be determined.
We previously covered the Blind Spot Warning While Parked as part of our preview notes for update 2024.44, but now that it's going out to customers, it's time to see it in action.
If the vehicle’s door open button is pressed, and a vehicle or object is near or incoming, the vehicle’s Blind Spot Warning Light (2024 Model 3 and Cybertruck) will illuminate, an audible tone will ring and the door won’t open. A message will also be displayed on the center displaying, letting driver’s know why the door didn’t open.
Pressing the button a second time will allow you to override the warning and open the door normally, providing a way to get out in case you just parked close to a nearby vehicle or obstacle.
The object detection for this new feature includes cars, pedestrians, cyclists, and other objects - like things including traffic cones, bollards, strollers, and other large obstacles that FSD and vision-based Autopark detect during normal operation. Of note - this only works for the front two doors. Thanks to X user Max, who did some testing for us, It does not work for the rear passenger doors.
Optional Feature
The feature is optional - it’ll be enabled by default for safety, but if you need to enable or disable it, you can do so under Controls > Safety. For now, the feature is only available on the 2024 Model 3, but we expect it to roll out to the Cybertruck at least. However, there’s no reason why it can’t be added to other vehicles as well, minus the small red dot. We expect Tesla to eventually add this feature to all Tesla vehicles, but it’s currently not a part of update 2024.44.
Enhauto’s S3XY Buttons & Commander
If that’s not enough safety and vision for you, Enhauto, the makers of the popular S3XY Buttons and Commander recently put out a new software update for the 2024 Model 3, which makes some fantastic use of the ambient lighting.
With Enhauto’s solution, users are able to tie their ambient lights to Autopilot use, turn signals or even if a vehicle is their blind spot. Check out the video below for this awesome implementation, where the ambient lights turn red when another vehicle approaches.
Maybe Tesla will integrate something like this into a future update? We’ve been hoping for more customizability with their ambient lighting - it's an easy safety win and a demonstration of Tesla’s do-more-with-less attitude.
I look forward to @enhauto updates more than Tesla...
Ambient light effects....
I set default color to white. Blinks green on turn signals Turns blue on FSD activation Yellow if someone in blind spot Blinks red if turn signal on and blind spot activity detected.
![First Look at Tesla’s New 'Blind Spot While Parked' Feature [VIDEO]](https://www.notateslaapp.com/img/containers/article_images/model-3-2024/blind-spot-indicator-monitor.jpg/4cdcb11af7b1c7cf021ba96588fd4f1a/blind-spot-indicator-monitor.jpg)
