Tesla's Supercharging network could become a central pillar to Tesla's profits
Tesla
In a striking turn of events, Tesla's Supercharger network — the globe's sole fast-charging infrastructure for electric vehicles — has been appraised by industry analysts to exceed $100 billion potentially. This evaluation, by one of the top Tesla experts, sends ripples across the EV charging business, marking a critical point for Tesla and the wider industry.
North American Standard NACS Connector Boosts Tesla’s Lead
Initially, Tesla's Supercharger network was meant as a perk for Tesla car owners, not a profit center. However, a fully developed EV charging market didn't materialize as expected, particularly in North America. Thus, automakers like GM and Ford have jumped on board, adopting Tesla’s NACS connector to provide their EV buyers access to Tesla’s Supercharger network. This is set to consolidate Tesla's position in the EV charging business, particularly in North America.
Morgan Stanley Forecasts and Scenarios for Supercharger Network
Adam Jonas, a highly regarded Tesla analyst at Morgan Stanley who also recently downplayed the Cybertruck, has extrapolated the potential value of the Supercharger business to Tesla. Jonas's team envisages a future where Tesla produces and stores its solar electricity to power Superchargers. By crunching the numbers, including assumed percentages of US electric vehicle miles in 2030, Supercharger market share, miles per kWh efficiency, and kWh revenue, several future scenarios emerged.
Understanding the Role of NOPAT in Tesla's Valuation
An important element in these scenarios is the Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT) concept. NOPAT is a company's potential profit after taking out the costs of goods sold and operating expenses before deducting interest and taxes. It's used to gauge operating efficiency and profitability without considering the effects of the company's capital structure or debt.
To break it down, Jonas presents four unique cases:
The "reasonable case" estimates a 10% penetration of EV miles, Tesla's Supercharging capturing 50% of the market, and a 30% NOPAT margin. This scenario pegs the net present value at $3 per share.
The "plausible case" forecasts 20% penetration, Tesla capturing 70% of Supercharging, and a 50% NOPAT margin, resulting in a net present value of $14 per share.
The "dominant case" anticipates a 30% EV miles penetration, an 80% Tesla Supercharging share, and a 70% NOPAT margin, culminating in a net present value of $33 per share.
Lastly, the "monopoly case" foresees 50% EV miles penetration, Tesla seizing 100% of Supercharging, and an 80% NOPAT margin, leading to an astounding net present value of $78 per share.
Given Tesla's massive number of shares, surpassing 3 billion, the Supercharger network's valuation crosses $100 billion at a per-share price of $33.
This hefty valuation of Tesla's Supercharger network underscores the substantial profit potential waiting to be unlocked in the EV charging infrastructure. It also signifies the unyielding lead Tesla has carved out in the EV market, not just with their electric vehicles but also their charging network. As more automakers pivot towards Tesla's charging standard, this $100 billion valuation may indicate more seismic shifts in the EV industry.
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Like clockwork, it’s time for the opportunity to submit questions for Tesla’s Q1 2025 Earnings Call. Q1 has historically been difficult for Tesla and other auto manufacturers in general, but doom-and-gloom aside, there’s plenty more to be excited about, including upcoming improvements to FSD and the first phase of Tesla’s Robotaxi network.
Earnings Q1 2025 Questions
Tesla is gearing up for its Q1 2025 Earnings Call, providing an opportunity for shareholders to once again submit and vote on questions they want to be addressed during the event. Tesla has already announced the lower-than-expected delivery numbers for Q1 2025, and also held a Public All-Hands Meeting for the first time, so we’re interested to find out what answers to some of these questions during their Q&A session.
Most Popular Questions
When will FSD unsupervised be available for personal use on personally-owned cars?
Is Tesla still on track for releasing “more affordable models” this year? Or will you be focusing on simplified versions to enhance affordability, similar to the RWD Cybertruck?
Robotaxi still on track for this year?
How is Tesla positioning itself to flexibly adapt to global economic risks in the form of tariffs, political biases, etc.?
Regarding the Tesla Optimus pilot line, could you confirm if it is currently operational? If so, what is the current production rate of Optimus bots per week? Additionally, how might the recent tariffs impact the scalability of this production line moving forward?
Did Tesla experience any meaningful changes in order inflow rate in Q1 relating to all of the rumors of “brand damage”?
When will Tesla Insurance be available in all 50 states. I’m from Idaho, and I’m surrounded by states where it is available, but it isn’t available in my state.
How is the company planning to deal with the impact of Elon’s partnership with the current administration?
is there a possibility of a stock split if so what would it be
Questions and voting are conducted through Say, a third-party platform that validates share ownership. Once your ownership is verified, you can use your shares to vote, with your vote weight corresponding to the number of shares you hold. Submitting a question initially gives it votes equivalent to your number of shares.
Below, we also compiled a list of the top questions going into the Earnings Call, which takes place a week from today.
The Earnings Call itself will take place on April 22, at 5:30 PM EDT (2:30 PM PT). Links to the live stream will be made available closer to the event. A recap of the key points will also be provided as usual, so stay tuned for that in the hours after the call.
With Q1 2025 now behind us, another round of Tesla’s Supercharger Voting has wrapped up. The previous vote took place back in December, and we now get to see which locations came out on top.
Let’s take a look at the Q1 2025 winners of the Supercharger Vote:
North America
🇺🇸 Lake Wales, FL
🇺🇸 Henderson, NV
🇺🇸 Clarksville, TN
🇺🇸 Roswell, NM
🇺🇸 Long Beach, CA
🇺🇸 Decatur, IL
🇺🇸 McAlester, OK
Europe
🇬🇧 Bournemouth, United Kingdom
🇮🇹 Bari, Italy
🇵🇱 Wrocław, Poland
🇨🇿 Hradec Králové, Czech Republic
Asia-Pacific
🇰🇷 Namyangju - South Korea
🇦🇺 Nicholls, Australia
Supercharger Voting Q2 2025
Another quarter means another round of Tesla's Supercharger Voting, giving Tesla owners the chance to influence where new Supercharger sites will be built. Following the Q1 2025 voting round, Tesla is now opening the polls for Q2 2025.
How to Vote
To participate in the Q2 2025 Supercharger Voting, visit the Tesla Supercharger Voting page and sign in to your Tesla account. You can vote for up to five different locations, with a limit of one vote per location, every three months. The most popular Superchargers are displayed on the leaderboard, and you can also suggest new locations for future voting cycles.
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