Tesla's Supercharging network could become a central pillar to Tesla's profits
Tesla
In a striking turn of events, Tesla's Supercharger network — the globe's sole fast-charging infrastructure for electric vehicles — has been appraised by industry analysts to exceed $100 billion potentially. This evaluation, by one of the top Tesla experts, sends ripples across the EV charging business, marking a critical point for Tesla and the wider industry.
North American Standard NACS Connector Boosts Tesla’s Lead
Initially, Tesla's Supercharger network was meant as a perk for Tesla car owners, not a profit center. However, a fully developed EV charging market didn't materialize as expected, particularly in North America. Thus, automakers like GM and Ford have jumped on board, adopting Tesla’s NACS connector to provide their EV buyers access to Tesla’s Supercharger network. This is set to consolidate Tesla's position in the EV charging business, particularly in North America.
Morgan Stanley Forecasts and Scenarios for Supercharger Network
Adam Jonas, a highly regarded Tesla analyst at Morgan Stanley who also recently downplayed the Cybertruck, has extrapolated the potential value of the Supercharger business to Tesla. Jonas's team envisages a future where Tesla produces and stores its solar electricity to power Superchargers. By crunching the numbers, including assumed percentages of US electric vehicle miles in 2030, Supercharger market share, miles per kWh efficiency, and kWh revenue, several future scenarios emerged.
Understanding the Role of NOPAT in Tesla's Valuation
An important element in these scenarios is the Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT) concept. NOPAT is a company's potential profit after taking out the costs of goods sold and operating expenses before deducting interest and taxes. It's used to gauge operating efficiency and profitability without considering the effects of the company's capital structure or debt.
To break it down, Jonas presents four unique cases:
The "reasonable case" estimates a 10% penetration of EV miles, Tesla's Supercharging capturing 50% of the market, and a 30% NOPAT margin. This scenario pegs the net present value at $3 per share.
The "plausible case" forecasts 20% penetration, Tesla capturing 70% of Supercharging, and a 50% NOPAT margin, resulting in a net present value of $14 per share.
The "dominant case" anticipates a 30% EV miles penetration, an 80% Tesla Supercharging share, and a 70% NOPAT margin, culminating in a net present value of $33 per share.
Lastly, the "monopoly case" foresees 50% EV miles penetration, Tesla seizing 100% of Supercharging, and an 80% NOPAT margin, leading to an astounding net present value of $78 per share.
Given Tesla's massive number of shares, surpassing 3 billion, the Supercharger network's valuation crosses $100 billion at a per-share price of $33.
This hefty valuation of Tesla's Supercharger network underscores the substantial profit potential waiting to be unlocked in the EV charging infrastructure. It also signifies the unyielding lead Tesla has carved out in the EV market, not just with their electric vehicles but also their charging network. As more automakers pivot towards Tesla's charging standard, this $100 billion valuation may indicate more seismic shifts in the EV industry.
Tesla’s Insurance program is offered in just a few US states - but it offers an integrated and seamless solution since it's built directly into the Tesla app. And now that experience is about to get even better if you own or subscribe to FSD.
With Tesla Insurance, you can view your documents, billing, payment details and even make claims right in the Tesla app. Additionally, Tesla offers varying levels of coverage with different plans, and you can also insure non-Tesla vehicles in addition to your Tesla.
In all states except for California, Tesla uses your Safety Score to help determine your insurance rate. So the safer you drive according to Tesla’s factors - the higher your Safety Score. A higher score means you pay less for insurance, while a lower score increases your rate. Rates can change on a month-to-month basis, so you can adjust your driving to become a safer driver to benefit more.
FSD Discount
Based on information pulled from Tesla’s latest app update - V4.41.0 - it seems that Tesla intends to introduce a new feature. These findings were discovered during a recent decompile of the Tesla app by Tesla App iOS. Tesla’s Safety Score already shows you how much you drive in FSD or Autopilot versus driving manually.
According to the decompiled information, the Safety Score may soon also factor in the percentage of time that you use FSD compared to the time you drive manually. It seems that driving on FSD more often will result in a higher safety score and, therefore, lower your insurance rate.
Sadly, Safety Score is only available to view if you subscribe to Tesla Insurance in a supported state. We’d love to see Tesla bring Safety Score to all users - whether or not they’re eligible or subscribed to Tesla Insurance. Seeing progress bars or seeing statistics improve in real-time can gamify becoming a safer driver.
Cheaper FSD?
This is an interesting change and could potentially even help attract people to use FSD more often. If you could cut your insurance rate by $50 a month and subscribe to FSD for just $99 a month - would that be enough of a positive factor for people to subscribe?
Effectively, if the discount is big enough, it could offset the cost of subscribing to FSD, increasing the revenue for Tesla.
We really hope this is the way Tesla is going because increasing FSD adoption will be key to both increasing real-world training data, as well as accelerating the adoption of a tech that will make roads safer both for FSD users and other road users.
We’re really looking forward to seeing how Tesla implements these changes - and hopefully they bring Tesla Insurance to even more states and countries in the near future.
After a truly long wait, it seems like Tesla is finally implementing Ultra-wideband (UWB) support for Android phones. Ultra-wideband allows for much more accurate phone tracking, leading to new features and a more reliable phone key. Tesla initially rolled out UWB Phone Key and app support for iOS users back with software update 2024.2.3 - which launched in February 2024.
Nearly a year later, we’re finally seeing signs of Tesla adding ultra-wideband support to Android devices. For Android users, this is exciting news, as it could add new features to your vehicle.
Android UWB Flag
A new flag related to ultra-wideband has been found in the latest Tesla app, version 4.41.0, thanks to a decompile by Tesla App iOS.
The new flag is labeled “MOBILE_APP_FEATURE_ANDROID_UWB_ENABLED,” which makes it pretty obvious that it’s related to Android UWB support.
Supported Devices
Most Android phones - especially flagship devices - already support and use UWB for other uses, but it’s not available on all phones. If you have a Google Pixel 6 or higher, Samsung Fold 2 or higher, Samsung S21+, or other recent Android phone, then your phone already supports ultra wideband.
However, since the advantage of UWB is the communication between the phone and the vehicle, your vehicle will need to support UWB as well.
Supported Models
Since ultra-wideband requires specific hardware, it can’t be added in a software update unless the hardware is already in the vehicle. Only some of the latest Tesla vehicles appear to support the new wireless protocol.
Here is the full list of supported Tesla models:
2024 Model 3 (Highland) and later
2021 Model S and later
2021 Model X and later
Cybertruck
2025 Model Y (Juniper) is expected to support UWB
The legacy Model S and Model X, as well as the first-gen Model 3 and current Model Y unfortunately do not support UWB.
More Reliable Phone Key
First up for UWB support is an improved phone key. The addition of UWB provides a low-power way for your vehicle to determine exactly where your device is in relation to your vehicle. That means the phone key will become more reliable - and more precise.
All supported vehicles above will support hands-free trunk opening, while automatic frunk opening is only supported on the Model S, Model X and Cybertruck.
For the first time, Android users will be able to set hands-free options for their vehicles, making it possible to open the trunk simply by standing behind the vehicle for two seconds. Once the vehicle detects you haven’t moved, a beep will sound and the trunk will open.
NFC Prompt
This app update is also adding a new interesting flag called SHOW_NFC_PROMPT. It seems Tesla is going to be adding a prompt to the app that will help people get back into their vehicles when their phone key fails. A device’s NFC capability actually remains active even if the phone has turned off due to a low battery. also remains active if you’ve drained the battery of your phone - so you’ll still be able to get into your vehicle and plop your phone on the charger.
Since Android devices can be set up and used as NFC key cards, you’ll be able to enter your vehicle even if your battery is depleted. This feature flag could be used to display something on your phone when the phone key fails to open the vehicle. It could ask you to use the device’s NFC capabilities or show you where to tap your phone or key card.
Release Date
Unfortunately, there’s no way of telling when this feature will arrive for Android users. However, seeing references in the app at least meaning that Tesla is at least actively developing the feature. While it could arrive any day now via a server-side change, it could also take another month or two for Tesla to complete any required testing across a variety of devices.
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