Tesla Reveals Cybertruck Prototype Launch Timeframe and Production Targets

Tesla is planning to deliver 375k units of the Cybertruck annually

MatthewDR/Twitter

Tesla is now on track to fulfill its commitment to deliver the much-anticipated Cybertruck. According to recent reports by Electrek, the company has shared its production targets and prototype timing with its suppliers, instilling confidence that deliveries will commence by the end of the third quarter in 2023.

From Delayed Launch to Steady Progress

In its communication with suppliers, Tesla revealed a plan to build a staggering 375,000 units of Cybertrucks annually. This figure is a significant leap from Musk's estimate of around 250,000 units per year. However, it's important to note that Tesla will likely reach this production milestone in 2024, once production has ramped up.

Tesla first pulled the covers off the Cybertruck in 2019, with original plans to hit the market in 2021. However, the global pandemic and supply chain disruptions led to multiple postponements. Despite these setbacks, recent updates from CEO Elon Musk show a good progression toward mass production of this futuristic pickup truck.

The Importance of Release Candidates

As per the internal timeline, the first release candidates for the Cybertruck, which are near-final vehicle versions, are slated for August 2023. These candidates represent the last development stage before mass production begins. This critical milestone aligns well with the projected delivery event scheduled for September.

Despite these updates, 1.5 million reservation holders still don't know about the final specs and pricing of the Cybertruck. According to Musk, these details will only be disclosed during the upcoming delivery event.

Tesla's Challenges and Ambitions

From engineering to design, the Cybertruck has been one of the most challenging vehicles for Tesla. Yet, the company's aggressive annual production target reflects its strong ambition to penetrate the electric pickup truck market. As the Cybertruck moves from prototype to production, Tesla is clearly in the driver's seat to revolutionize this segment.

In the recent Investor Day, the latest Cybertruck prototypes were spotted with new features, including a yoke steering wheel design. These design modifications, validated by Musk and Tesla's Chief Vehicle Designer Franz von Holzhausen, provide further evidence that production is imminent.

In the face of high anticipation and industry scrutiny, Tesla is pushing full steam ahead with its Cybertruck program, "Project Everest." The production target of 375,000 units and the expected arrival of release candidates this August paint a promising picture for Tesla's entry into the electric pickup market. With Tesla's record of transforming the EV space, the Cybertruck's launch will undoubtedly be a landmark event in automotive history.

Imagining Tesla’s Robotaxi Network Charging Stations

Not a Tesla App

It was a rainy April 1st when a news-searching author went on a delve into the depths of April Fools to find fact from falsehood. And while we found a lot of fantastic jokes, we also found some good ideas.

So, with a shoutout to MarcoRP on X, whose April Fool’s Joke gave us a good run for our money for a couple of minutes, we thought to ourselves - what would a Cybercab Charging Station / Cleaning Hub really look like?

Cybercab Wireless Charging Sites

Now, before continuing, we’d like to point out that the image up top is a joke from Marco - it isn’t an accurate or real site map submission from Tesla. However, it gave us the impetus to think critically about what is required for a Robotaxi fleet, based primarily on the Cybercab, to be able to service a city.

Requirements

Tesla will likely need to charge a small fleet of Cybercabs at a single time and in a single place. That means that the site needs to be large enough to cover a major metro area while also still being compact enough to not cost too much money to build out.

In addition, we need to factor in charge times. The Cybercab is likely to launch with a battery around 50 kWh, which will result in a range of approximately 300 miles. With that much range, the average Cybercab may not need to charge more than once or at all during daytime shifts, so instead, most of the vehicles will charge overnight.

MarcoRP

Math and Charge Times

The overnight charging means that most of these vehicles could be charged slowly. When we did some back-of-the-napkin math last year, we determined that Tesla’s wireless charger will likely peak around 17 kW (for comparison, Tesla’s Wall Connector at 32 amps charges at about 7 kW). If we scale Tesla’s wireless charger down slightly to 10 kW, accounting for some energy loss and the potential size of the site, that means a Cybercab will be able to charge in about 5 hours.

Tesla’s upcoming V4 Supercharger unit can currently handle 1.5MW per cabinet, but this slower-speed charging is A/C, not DC, which means there is a step-down loss of about 3-5%. Let’s make that a comfortable 10% for any other overages, but we can estimate around 1.35MW of power. That 1.3MW will easily handle charging up to 100 Cybercabs at once - all wirelessly, using Tesla’s unique beam-forming and beam-steering technology to keep efficiency high at every single stall.

Within about 5 hours, a whole fleet of 100 Cybercabs could be charged overnight when electricity rates are cheaper and still be out in time for the morning commute.

While this is all just hypothetical, it really does make sense that Tesla will be establishing these sites that won’t require much space or a ton of energy.

Tesla recently curtained off a large section of the parking garage at Giga Texas, as well as some of their chargers on the eastern end of the facility, leading us to believe they may just be testing this at scale internally.

There’s a lot to look forward to with Tesla’s V4 Supercharger deployment coming this year and with Robotaxi launching in just a couple of months.

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Tesla Announces 2025 Q1 Numbers: Lower Than Expected, but the Worst May Be Over

Not a Tesla App

Tesla released its Q1 2025 delivery and production numbers this morning, reporting 336,681 vehicles delivered and 362,615 produced—marking the company’s weakest quarter since 2022. Deliveries declined 13% year-over-year and fell well short of Wall Street estimates, which ranged from 360,000 to 370,000. Some analysts had forecast as many as 407,000 units.

Despite the shortfall, Tesla stock is actually up about 4% this morning, not only suggesting the market had already priced in weaker performance, but that this may be seen as the low point for the company. Tesla began delivering its refreshed Model Y in March, and production across all four Gigafactories was impacted by several weeks of downtime as Tesla retooled lines to accommodate the newer model. However, there’s no doubt that there is some brand impact from Elon Musk.

Comparing Numbers

Most of the deliveries—323,800 units—came from the Model 3 and Model Y lineup, while the “Other Models” category (including the Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X) accounted for 12,881 deliveries. That’s a 31% drop for Model 3/Y and a sharper 45% drop for the Other Models category compared to the previous quarter. However, comparing it to a more applicable Q1 2024, these numbers are only down about 13% for the Model 3/Y and down about 24% for the Model S/X and Cybertruck.

In terms of production, Tesla built 345,454 Model 3/Y vehicles and 17,161 from its “Other Models” line. The company attributed the production drop to the Model Y changeover but said the ramp is “going well.” This still leaves a large gap between production and delivery numbers, although they may not be as large as many had feared.

Cybertruck

One major weak point in Tesla’s numbers seems to be Cybertruck deliveries. While Tesla previously expected the Cybertruck to sell more than 250k units per year, we’re already seeing a decline in numbers. This is likely due to several factors, including the higher-than-expected price point of the truck, the unavailability of the RWD model, and the Cybertruck’s polarizing design, which may attract unwanted attention right now.

While the Cybertruck was ramping up production in 2024, making the lower numbers reasonable, the deliveries for Q1 2025 dropped drastically compared to the previous quarter. Cybertruck deliveries are estimated to be in the 5- 6k unit range for the quarter.

The good news to take away here is that the Single Motor variant of the Cybertruck appears to be nearing release. The price of the RWD version is expected to be about $60k USD before any incentives.

Q1 Earnings Call

Tesla announced their quarterly numbers this morning and posted on social media that they’ll live stream their Earnings Call on April 22nd.

This post was later edited to change “Q1 Earnings Call” to “Q1 Company Update.” It’s not clear whether there’s any significance in this change, but it could mean that Tesla has more to announce during the call.

The Company Update will occur on April 22nd at 2:30 PM PT / 5:30 PM ET. The standard Q&A session with executives and Musk is expected to follow the release of additional financial results for the quarter.

Tesla is set to launch its long-awaited Robotaxi service in June, and a cheaper, mass-market model is also planned for this year. With delivery numbers coming in soft and the refreshed Model Y just hitting the road, all eyes will be on forward-looking commentary during the update.

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