Tesla Q1 deliveries are expected to exceed expectations
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Barclays Senior Autos Analyst Dan Levy spoke with Yahoo Finance, highlighting Tesla's cost advantage and the role of Elon Musk in the company's success.
According to Levy, Tesla's first-quarter delivery figures are expected to exceed expectations, with a forecast of 425,000 units, ahead of the consensus of 420,000 units. This positive outlook could catalyze the stock, which has recently faced negative sentiment due to questions about demand.
The Elon Factor: How Musk's Persona Affects Tesla's Branding
Levy addressed the potential impact of Elon Musk's public persona on Tesla's overall branding. While a recent poll indicated that 36% of Americans said Elon Musk makes them less likely to buy a Tesla, Levy stressed the importance of focusing on Tesla's product and cost lead rather than Musk's persona.
Levy acknowledged that Tesla wouldn't have achieved its current status without Musk's guidance and that his unorthodox approach has contributed to the company's success. He also highlighted the investor day event, where 17 people appeared on stage alongside Musk to showcase the depth of Tesla's bench and demonstrate that there is more to Tesla than its CEO.
Tesla's Cost Advantage, A Key to Unlocking Further Volume
Levy emphasized Tesla's significant cost advantage in the electric vehicle (EV) market, which he believes the company will use to unlock further volume by leaning into its margin advantage. He referred to Tesla's investor day, where the company expressed its intention to drive costs down and, in turn, unlock more volume.
This cost advantage is crucial for Tesla as it faces challenges common to other automakers in the EV market, such as ramping up volume and maintaining healthy margins. Levy noted that Tesla's cost advantage allows them to be more competitive and flexible in its pricing strategies, which will be essential for driving future growth.
Expectations of Further Price Cuts Amid Economic Pressures
As the global economy faces various pressures, Tesla is expected to make additional price cuts to remain competitive. Levy pointed out that the US auto industry's pricing is coming down from all-time highs, and Tesla is subject to the same dynamics. Furthermore, Tesla's new facilities in Austin and Berlin will increase supply, potentially leading to further price reductions.
However, Levy also mentioned that there might be some margin offset due to additional fixed cost absorption and moderating raw material costs. This, combined with Tesla's cost advantage, should help the company navigate the economic pressures and continue its growth trajectory.
A Clear Lead in EV Profitability
Tesla's first-mover advantage has given it a clear lead in EV profitability, with a 17% Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) margin last year. Levy compared this to traditional automakers like Ford, which reported -40% EBIT margins on their EVs. This profitability gap demonstrates traditional automakers' challenges in transitioning to EVs and highlights Tesla's strong position in the market.
Tesla's strong Q1 delivery forecast, cost advantage, and a clear lead in EV profitability indicate a bright future for the company. Despite the potential impact of Elon Musk's persona, Tesla's focus on product quality and cost reduction should continue to drive growth and maintain its position as a leader in the EV market.
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There’s been a spade of Cybertruck announcements that just came up all at once, so let’s see what the polygonal truck is up to in the month of November. We’ve got a variety of topics to cover, starting with some disappointing news about Tesla’s in-house wrapping services, which are being discontinued for the Cybertruck. But don’t worry — there’s plenty of good news to follow.
No More Tesla Wraps
Tesla no longer offers wraps for the Cybertruck as an option for US customers. Tesla began wrapping vehicles earlier this year but stopped offering wraps for the Cybertruck as of November 13th.
This comes after Tesla previously reduced the color options for Cybertruck wraps from seven to five. However, this isn’t too big of an issue—there are plenty of companies that specialize in vehicle wraps.
The reason Tesla stopped offering wrap services for the Cybertruck isn’t clear. Was there not enough demand? Did it take up too much time from technicians who are already stretched thin?
Given the long repair backlogs in the United States, it makes more sense to have service technicians focus on vehicle repairs rather than spending time wrapping cars.
Inventory Foundation Series
The Cybertruck Foundation Series is now available as an inventory vehicle in certain locations in the United States. That means you can pick up a Foundation-series truck with little to no delay.
Only a few trucks are currently in stock, but this will likely expand as Tesla continues to ramp production and begins to offer the non-Foundation Series trucks as inventory vehicles.
These inventory vehicles are only available in the United States. Canadian owners will still need to put down a deposit for a Foundation Series Cybertruck to get it soon.
Crossbars
Tesla has just announced it is offering a new set of crossbars for the Cybertruck. With a load rating of 200 lbs, it’s on par with roof racks for other trucks. These crossbars also come with mounting pads and quick releases. There are also slots for attaching ski racks, bike racks, or even cargo boxes, letting owners expand the truck's storage capacity.
Interestingly, the Foundation Series trucks can install the crossbars over the cabin or the truck bed, while the non-Foundation Series can only mount the crossbars over the truck bed. That isn’t the greatest news - because one of the best uses for these crossbars is protecting the cabin glass when you’ve got items like long wooden planks hanging over the roof of the truck. Maybe we’ll see more on this soon.
The mounting points for the Cybertruck's crossbars.
Not a Tesla App
Update: It turns out that you can, in fact, install the crossbars anywhere on a non-Foundation series vehicle. You’ll just have to pay for an additional roof applique, according to Wes Morril, Lead Engineer of the Cybertruck Program.
Faster Charging
Tesla announced updated versions of the V4 Supercharger, with a more powerful electrical cabinet that can charge the Cybertruck at up to 500kW. That’s an insanely fast speed—nearly 1,300 mi/hr of charging. This will come as part of a future update for the Cybertruck and as V4 Supercharger stations begin to be deployed.
That’ll make the Cybertruck the fastest-charging Tesla - even with its enormous battery.
Tesla has revealed its updated V4 Superchargers, which have a massive power increase and can charge vehicles at up to 500kW. The V4 Superchargers have been a work in progress. They were initially launched with a v3 cabinet, limiting their overall potential.
V3 and V4 Superchargers have been charging at 250kW for several years, but recently, Tesla started a public trial at some locations with Superchargers reaching power levels of 320kW. This speed bump out of the 250kW zone was our first indication that Tesla was looking to roll out improved charging speeds.
With these new V4 Supercharger cabinets, Tesla is ready to blow these numbers out of the water, however, not every car will be capable of charging at the new 500kW speeds. Fun fact: Tesla’s Superchargers first arrived with a charging speed of just 90kW.
V4 Supercharger Cabinet
The V4 Supercharger has been around for some time—it's the new one without a hole in the center. However, those were running with V3 or V3+ cabinets. Now, the V4 cabinet has arrived.
The V4 Supercharger cabinet knocks that 320kW V3+ right out of the park. It can put a massive 500kW into the Cybertruck—currently the only vehicle that can use that speed. And that 500kW works out to a blistering 1,300 mi/hr for the Cybertruck — nearly 2100 km/h of charge speed.
Part of these charging improvements come from the Cybertruck’s 800V system, so we can’t expect all these charging improvements to roll out to older vehicles. Instead, we can expect the upcoming Model Y Juniper Refresh to likely also arrive with an 800V system, with all the experience and knowledge Tesla has gained from the first year of the Cybertruck.
If the new Model Y achieves charging speeds comparable to the Cybertruck, it could deliver remarkably fast charging times. Being lighter and more efficient than the Cybertruck, the Model Y could achieve a significantly higher miles-per-hour charge rate at the same 500kW charging speed.
These new V4 chargers will support vehicles with 400-volt and up to 1,000-volt vehicle architectures, so people with non-Tesla EVs that support 1,000 volts will also see some drastic charging improvements.
In its brief video, Tesla also showed off the updated V4 Megacharger dedicated to the Tesla Semi. The new MCS system can pull up to 1.2 Megawatts, which is 1,200 KW of pure power via the MCS connector for the Tesla Semi and its massive battery pack.
This upgrade for the Semi is going to be big, making it a prime option for companies looking to do short—and medium-haul trucking—nearly 90% of the trucking in North America.
V4 Supercharger Rollout
The rollout of V4 Superchargers will start early next year, with the first sites already undergoing permitting. Most interestingly, Tesla’s new V4 cabinet has also reduced the complexity of the Superchargers even further.
The V4 cabinet powers 8 posts, which is 2x more than the V3 cabinet. A smaller footprint and less complexity mean faster installations, which means more V4 sites faster.
These new Superchargers have the potential to ease congestion and help eliminate the negative perceptions of slow EV charging.
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