Jonas Tells Us Why Cybertruck May Not Be Runaway Success

Will the Cybertruck's appeal dwindle after release?

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Cybertruck hype reached feverish levels after Investor Day. The futuristic vehicle was on display and even took some lucky people for a test drive. However, wherever there is a parade, there will surely be rain. So, Morgan Stanley's managing director advises staff to manage expectations for clients excited about investing in Tesla.

Adam Jonas, who attended Investor Day, listed five reasons why Cybertruck may not be the vehicle Elon Musk and the Tesla team dream it will be. Instead, he thinks it will be a financial "side-show," a "cultural/zeitgeist," and an "enthusiast/cult car." Let's hear him out. He is considered a Tesla Bull, despite a quick Google search showing he's been writing a bear case for Tesla for years.

Things Have Changed for Tesla

His first point is that Tesla was a different company in 2019 when Cybertruck was unveiled. When you adjust for the multiple stock splits, Tesla is worth ten times more today. He believes the company's values and goals have changed since 2019.

Tesla has changed significantly in the past four years, and the company is focused on launching a more affordable vehicle. Musk laid out his plan for a more sustainable energy future that included getting more people into electric cars, a goal that can only be achieved if those cars are affordable for more people. Unfortunately, Cybertruck is unlikely to be under the title: affordable.

How Far Can Unique Go?

The investor's next point is calling the Cybertruck the "ultimate avant-garde vehicle." He believes that the unique aspects of Cybertruck will lose some appeal when there are several on the road.

Okay, fair point. However, how many white Teslas do you see on the road today? No one seems to mind driving the same color Model 3 and Model Y. Besides, if someone is concerned about losing that "indescribable something," as Jonas puts it, they can get a wrap. Also, with rumors that the next platform may use Cybertruck's stainless steel exterior, the company doesn't seem concerned about too many stainless steel vehicles.

Restrict Cybertruck Production

To that point, the Morgan Stanley employee wonders if Tesla should restrict the production of Cybertruck. He forecasts that the production volume could ramp up to 100,000 units per year, which means it will be 2030 by the time 500,000 are on the street. He ponders if the company should limit production to 420,699 Cybertrucks.

This makes sense if his production figures are close to reality. It could take decades to fill the millions of Cybertruck orders. Look at how much things have changed in the four years since it was announced; imagine the changes that could happen before filling all those orders. These orders may fall under the same category as the long-awaited Roadster 2.0.

Price Point Concerns

In his next point, Jonas says the employee who gave him a Cybertruck ride said the vehicle weighed 7,000 pounds, equivalent to a Chevy Silverado 3500HD. That has Jonas thinking the price will be significantly higher than the first announced $39,900.

At this point, anyone who thinks they will get a Cybertruck for forty grand better forfeit their reservation now. But Jonas's point is relevant: if the price comes in too high, the waitlist will be drastically reduced by the many who put in a reservation for a $39,900 truck.

Not a Competitor for Traditional Trucks

Based on that point, Jonas doesn't think the Cybertruck he saw and rode in "poses a significant threat to the established pickup truck market."

He could be right. It will be a difficult sell if it's big, heavy, and considerably expensive. We should also note that just days before this letter to Morgan Stanley staff, Jonas dropped Tesla as his preferred U.S.-listed automaker and now backs Ferrari NV. Yes, that Ferrari, the builder of supercars.

If you are on the waiting list for a Cybertruck, it's worth considering the points Jonas has raised. However, while Cybertruck has generated significant hype and excitement, it is essential to account for the potential challenges and limitations it may face in the market. With Tesla's changing values and goals, the Cybertruck's unique design, uncertain price point, and limited production, it remains to be seen whether it will be the ultimate game-changer in the pickup truck market. But you'll have plenty of time to decide if you want to take delivery of your Cybertruck as limited production starts this summer, with a ramp-up beginning next year.

Tesla Launches New Long Range RWD Model Y in U.S.: More Affordable and Longer Range

Not a Tesla App

Tesla has finally launched the refreshed Model Y Long Range Rear Wheel Drive (LR RWD) in the United States. While the refreshed Model Y RWD was available as a Launch-Series option in the Asia-Pacific and European markets, it wasn’t yet available at all in North America. Once the Launch Series stopped being offered, Tesla began shipping non-Launch Edition Model Y LR RWDs in Asia and Europe earlier this year, but didn’t bring it to the United States until now.

The LR RWD is one of Tesla’s most affordable vehicles, starting at $44,990 (or $37,490 after the Federal EV Rebate).

Model Y LR RWD

Spec-wise, the refreshed Model Y LR RWD is a compelling alternative to the AWD model. Tesla has kept the premium interior and audio options on the North American variant, so you get the full experience of the refreshed Model Y. You also get more range and faster charging than the AWD model. The only downside is that it’s two-wheel drive and slower acceleration. However, given the lower price and additional range, those may be worth the tradeoffs.

*Listed ranges are EPA Ranges.

Pricing

All in all, you get a fantastic deal, given the lower price tag. The refreshed Model Y LR RWD is priced $4,000 less than the AWD version while still offering many of its attractive features.

*Post-tariff pricing.

Availability

The Long Range RWD is expected to begin shipping immediately in the United States. Tesla has not made the vehicle available in Mexico or Canada yet, likely due to tariff complications. Once the tariff rates settle, Tesla will likely look to export the vehicles from the U.S. to the other two North American countries.

With the arrival of the Long Range RWD variant, the last version we’re waiting for is the refreshed Model Y Performance. That’s likely to be an exciting vehicle, and we’re hopeful it will be in customers’ garages before the end of 2025.

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Tesla Introduces New Dynamic Supercharger Pricing

Not a Tesla App

Tesla is adjusting its Supercharger prices based on current usage in a new pilot program. Tesla’s pricing structure has typically revolved around traditional time-based peak/off-peak schedules but is now migrating to a more dynamic model based on live Supercharger utilization.

This development, announced officially through the Tesla Charging X account, should make Supercharger pricing more accurately reflect the demand for the specific Supercharger site instead of basing pricing on past usage.

Live Utilization Pricing

The core of this new pilot will launch at just 10 Supercharger sites in North America. The particular sites in question have not been clarified, but one of the locations is the Supercharger located in Davis, California.

Tesla intends to expand the pilot based on feedback and the success of the initial rollout. We could be looking at the future of Supercharger pricing around the globe.

New Chart and Features

Today, Tesla typically offers two or three prices based on peak and off-peak demand, meaning that Supercharger prices are based on the hour of the day. The current Supercharger chart in the vehicle shows the hours and price on the X-axis, while the Y-axis is the typical demand (image below).

The current chart for Superchargers versus the new one at the top of the page

Not a Tesla App

However, with the new charts that will soon be added to vehicles, Tesla will display the time on the X-axis, and the Y-axis will show the historical demand and the current price (photo at the top of this page).

In theory, the Supercharger's historical demand and real-time usage should be pretty similar, but there will be exceptions, like holidays and other events. Unexpected high and low usage will play a role in the pricing, such as sporting events and natural disasters. If the Supercharger is busy, then pricing will be high; otherwise, it will be low.

This also introduces a new feature, since pricing is now based on actual demand, users could navigate to a Supercharger that is less busy and, therefore, cheaper. In the hero image, we can see that Tesla will add a new “Find Lower Price Charging” button in a future vehicle update. This will likely highlight other nearby Superchargers that are less busy and less expensive.

However, it seems like Tesla may also start charging more for Superchargers than they do today when they’re extremely busy. Judging by the screenshot Tesla shared, the estimated usage never passed the $0.45 per kWh at the Davis, CA Supercharger. However, it seems that there’s a new price of $0.54 per kWh when the Supercharger usage is at its peak.

The good news is that Tesla is being more transparent and indicating whether the price is low or high with new labels. This change will give users more choices in terms of charging prices. If you want to save a few bucks, you can drive to a less busy Supercharger. The price will also be based on actual usage, which seems like a fairer way to determine price.

While Tesla hasn’t updated vehicles yet to show these new charts, the latest version of the Tesla app already incorporates the changes.

What Tesla Says

Max de Zegher, Tesla’s Director of Charging, elaborated on the pilot program on X.

He points out that Tesla Charging’s rates have been consistent, and it has focused on improving the charging experience and availability. Off-peak and on-peak pricing will help to increase both of these.

Tesla has outlined exactly how this new live feedback loop will function. The more accurate real-time station demand can allow Tesla to adjust pricing if a station is experiencing congestion during traditionally “off-peak” hours. On the flipside, if a station is unusually empty, Tesla can reduce the pricing.

This easily incentivizes customers who are keeping an eye on charging costs, as changing your charging destination can be as simple as the tap of a button. Most interestingly, Tesla says that the average price paid by customers is expected to remain the same as with the previous time-based system, even with seasonal and real-time fluctuations.

Crucially, owners can always see the price per kWh on their vehicle’s primary display, as well as in the Tesla app before initiating a charging session. Additionally, Tesla will not change the pricing mid-charge, so there’s no need to worry about it fluctuating up or down while you’re charging.

When reading some of our old blog posts, you'll find that @TeslaCharging has been consistent in its pricing principles: improving the charging experience and Supercharger availability. True to those principles, we're now piloting live site utilization for off-peak and on-peak… https://t.co/rIqQzOZfcG

— Max (@MdeZegher) May 6, 2025

Supercharger Pricing History

This move to live-based pricing is being presented as Tesla’s latest step towards managing its vast charging network with a more customer-centric approach. Tesla has had some historical progression in its pricing strategy, so let’s take a look at where we were versus where we are going.

kWh-Based Billing: Tesla has long pushed for billing by the kilowatt-hour (kWh) as the fairest method for customers to pay for the exact energy consumed, avoiding session fees that can obscure actual energy costs. This is now standard in most regions, but it wasn’t too long ago that pricing was determined by the minute.

Idle Fees (2017): To address vehicles remaining plugged in after charging was complete at busy sites, idle fees were implemented to improve stall availability – a practice now common across the industry.

80% SoC Limiter (2019): At busy locations, Tesla introduced an automatic 80% state-of-charge (SoC) charging limit (which users can manually override) to encourage faster turnover, as the final 20% of charging is significantly slower.

Time-Based Peak/Off-Peak Pricing (2020): Pricing based on estimated busy times was rolled out to incentivize charging during less congested periods, helping to distribute demand and manage costs.

Congestion Fees (2023): At particularly busy sites, congestion fees were introduced. These combine the principles of idle fees with disincentivizing charging to a very high state of charge when a station is crowded, with the stated goal of improving availability, not generating profit.

Commitment to Affordability

Alongside these pricing changes, Tesla has reiterated its focus on keeping Supercharging affordable for all its users. Tesla points out that, on average, in North America and Europe, Tesla’s Superchargers are 30% cheaper than other fast-charging options while also being far more reliable.

Beyond that, 2025 is set to be Tesla’s largest year for expanding the Supercharger network while also replacing many older V2 charging sites with faster, more capable V4 Supercharger stations.

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