Jonas Tells Us Why Cybertruck May Not Be Runaway Success

Will the Cybertruck's appeal dwindle after release?

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Cybertruck hype reached feverish levels after Investor Day. The futuristic vehicle was on display and even took some lucky people for a test drive. However, wherever there is a parade, there will surely be rain. So, Morgan Stanley's managing director advises staff to manage expectations for clients excited about investing in Tesla.

Adam Jonas, who attended Investor Day, listed five reasons why Cybertruck may not be the vehicle Elon Musk and the Tesla team dream it will be. Instead, he thinks it will be a financial "side-show," a "cultural/zeitgeist," and an "enthusiast/cult car." Let's hear him out. He is considered a Tesla Bull, despite a quick Google search showing he's been writing a bear case for Tesla for years.

Things Have Changed for Tesla

His first point is that Tesla was a different company in 2019 when Cybertruck was unveiled. When you adjust for the multiple stock splits, Tesla is worth ten times more today. He believes the company's values and goals have changed since 2019.

Tesla has changed significantly in the past four years, and the company is focused on launching a more affordable vehicle. Musk laid out his plan for a more sustainable energy future that included getting more people into electric cars, a goal that can only be achieved if those cars are affordable for more people. Unfortunately, Cybertruck is unlikely to be under the title: affordable.

How Far Can Unique Go?

The investor's next point is calling the Cybertruck the "ultimate avant-garde vehicle." He believes that the unique aspects of Cybertruck will lose some appeal when there are several on the road.

Okay, fair point. However, how many white Teslas do you see on the road today? No one seems to mind driving the same color Model 3 and Model Y. Besides, if someone is concerned about losing that "indescribable something," as Jonas puts it, they can get a wrap. Also, with rumors that the next platform may use Cybertruck's stainless steel exterior, the company doesn't seem concerned about too many stainless steel vehicles.

Restrict Cybertruck Production

To that point, the Morgan Stanley employee wonders if Tesla should restrict the production of Cybertruck. He forecasts that the production volume could ramp up to 100,000 units per year, which means it will be 2030 by the time 500,000 are on the street. He ponders if the company should limit production to 420,699 Cybertrucks.

This makes sense if his production figures are close to reality. It could take decades to fill the millions of Cybertruck orders. Look at how much things have changed in the four years since it was announced; imagine the changes that could happen before filling all those orders. These orders may fall under the same category as the long-awaited Roadster 2.0.

Price Point Concerns

In his next point, Jonas says the employee who gave him a Cybertruck ride said the vehicle weighed 7,000 pounds, equivalent to a Chevy Silverado 3500HD. That has Jonas thinking the price will be significantly higher than the first announced $39,900.

At this point, anyone who thinks they will get a Cybertruck for forty grand better forfeit their reservation now. But Jonas's point is relevant: if the price comes in too high, the waitlist will be drastically reduced by the many who put in a reservation for a $39,900 truck.

Not a Competitor for Traditional Trucks

Based on that point, Jonas doesn't think the Cybertruck he saw and rode in "poses a significant threat to the established pickup truck market."

He could be right. It will be a difficult sell if it's big, heavy, and considerably expensive. We should also note that just days before this letter to Morgan Stanley staff, Jonas dropped Tesla as his preferred U.S.-listed automaker and now backs Ferrari NV. Yes, that Ferrari, the builder of supercars.

If you are on the waiting list for a Cybertruck, it's worth considering the points Jonas has raised. However, while Cybertruck has generated significant hype and excitement, it is essential to account for the potential challenges and limitations it may face in the market. With Tesla's changing values and goals, the Cybertruck's unique design, uncertain price point, and limited production, it remains to be seen whether it will be the ultimate game-changer in the pickup truck market. But you'll have plenty of time to decide if you want to take delivery of your Cybertruck as limited production starts this summer, with a ramp-up beginning next year.

Tesla Shares New Details on FSD Unsupervised, Robotaxi, Potential FSD Price Hike During Q1 2025 Earnings Call

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In case you missed Tesla’s Q1 2025 earnings call last night, or just want to see the cliff notes, we’ve got you fully covered. While Tesla called this event a “Company Update” on their Investor Relations website, we covered all the usual aspects of a regular earnings call.

Tesla had a rough Q1, but managed to pull through even in the face of one of the most financially difficult quarters in recent memory. There’s also a lot of exciting news as Tesla shared updates and key information on some of its upcoming products.

Tesla actually started this event relatively on time, with the call beginning just seven minutes after the scheduled start time. If you prefer to listen to the call, you can listen below with the call starting at the 7 minute, 9 second mark.

FSD Supervised & Unsupervised

• FSD Supervised launched in China, received positive reception.

  • Tesla launched FSD in China without access to country-specific data, and it is performing extremely well.

  • They expect this will make it easier to launch elsewhere.

  • FSD Supervised for Europe still on track for 2025.

• FSD Unsupervised is now running Model 3, Model Y, and Cybertrucks from the production line to the outbound logistics lots at Fremont and Giga texas.

• As of this quarter, FSD has been driving people in North America and China for 7.7 Million miles per day.

• Tesla will consider pricing options for Unsupervised FSD vs Supervised FSD

  • In the meantime, Tesla plans to gradually lighten the supervision requirements

  • Executive team believes FSD is too cheap at $99/mo as it currently stands

• Glare, Sand, Dust, Fog

  • Cameras are not fully blinded by glare or other obstacles

  • Tesla’s photon-count analysis happens before digital signal processing - the image you see on the dash may be washed out, but FSD can see fine.

• Snow and Inclement Weather

  • These are still a challenge for scaling out to areas that experience snow.

  • Tesla is looking at implementing localized parameters to deal with snow or other localized conditions in the future

    • Not essential, but a “nice-to-have”

    • These parameters will be focused on improving reliability for certain tasks, like driving in snow

• Waymo

  • Tesla doesn’t see Waymo as a challenger

  • LIDAR is expensive, can’t solve many problems

  • Pure vision is the key (along with audio now)

  • Tesla isn’t just doing a software solution and attaching hardware to a pre-existing vehicle, Tesla is building the vehicles ground-up with autonomy in mind

• Validation is still a challenge, due to edge cases.

  • QA fleet is driving in Austin, and can go many days without an intervention

  • Difficult to tell whether improving or regressing

  • Deeper and broader simulation systems are being built

  • Seeing an intervention every 10,000 miles means they need 10,000 miles of data on average to address it

  • Need as much data as possible - 10,000 miles is the average distance covered by a driver in North America in a year

  • The executive team noted that Chinese FSD testers are doing a fantastic job testing edge cases

Unsupervised FSD & Robotaxi Fleet

• Tesla is on track for the pilot launch of Robotaxi in Austin for June 2025.

  • These will move the financial needle in the 2nd half of 2026.

  • The first vehicles will be Model Y’s, not Cybercabs.

  • Aim is to start in Austin and roll out elsewhere in the United States by the end of the year

  • Focus is to ramp quickly, and have millions of vehicles operating autonomously by the end of 2026.

• Remote Support for robotaxi fleet could happen, not 100%

• 10-20 vehicles on Day 1 for Robotaxi fleet

  • Scale-up will happen slowly

  • By the end of June or early July, anyone will be able to go to Austin and use a robotaxi

• Vast majority of Tesla’s existing fleet will be capable of Unsupervised FSD

  • Elon specifically mentioned the Model S, 3, X, and Y

  • This is the fourth event (We, Robot, Q4 Earnings 2024, All-Hands, and Q1 Earnings 2025) without mention of the Cybertruck being capable, likely meaning that FSD development for the Cybertruck is further behind as we’ve seen.

• Tesla’s generalized solution to autonomy means that once they verify it works in a few North American locations, it should work in any North American city

  • Key limitation is regulatory approvals

  • This also applies for other areas of the world - the generalized solution will make it easy to apply it elsewhere

• Tesla is providing autonomous supervised vehicles today that are capable of:

  • Cutting commute effort

  • Improving lives for customers with disabilities

  • Tesla’s executive team wants to get these stories out and get people to experience FSD

• Unsupervised FSD should launch for customers in the US, ideally by end of year

  • Safety is a key concern, Tesla needs to continue reducing interventions per mile

  • Tesla will be careful with rolling this out outside of dedicated fleets

  • It must be meaningfully (10x or more, as per Q4 2024) safer than a human

  • Will likely be geofenced to specific cities or locations

• Elon expects the first Model Y will drive itself from Fremont or Giga Texas all the way to a customer by the end of 2025

Affordable Vehicle

• The plan for the new more affordable model (identified as a new vehicle), remains on schedule for production beginning in the first half of 2025.

  • These will utilize aspects of the next-generation platform as well as current platforms, and be produced on the same manufacturing lines as current vehicles.

  • This approach will result in less cost reduction, but will enable Tesla to manage capital expenditures.

• This model will start production as soon as June and be in the market shortly thereafter.

  • Ramping will be slower than hoped due to global tariff and financial impacts

  • Production timeline is still on track overall

  • Tesla is aiming for a lower initial cost of ownership and lower monthly payments

• Tesla will use its existing lines - reducing the overall form factor difference between this new model and what Tesla already exists

  • Likely based on the Model 3 or Model Y

  • Will resemble the overall form and shape

Cybercab

• Cybercab will use the unboxed manufacturing strategy, and is scheduled for volume production in 2026.

• Sample production validation is ongoing now

  • First builds will happen near the end of Q2

  • Production is on-schedule at Giga Texas

  • No new building is being built, it will be built inside already planned space

• Unboxed method is progressing well

  • It is the basis for the Cybercab’s manufacturing process

  • It lowers the cost of production and increases the level of automation considerably

  • Tesla is working on marrying large assemblies together, fixing vehicle ceiling connections, and recently completed corrosion testing

• Unboxed methodology will eventually be incorporated into other lines

  • Cybertruck is already benefiting from some aspects of this method

• Long term goal is a 5 second cycle time for Cybercab

  • Giga Shanghai currently has a 33 second cycle team for Model Y

Current Vehicles

• Giga Texas produced its 400,00th vehicle in April, and Tesla launched the Cybertruck Long Range (RWD).

• Giga Nevada achieved record battery pack production this quarter.

  • Model 3 and Model Y deliveries in the US (and Canada) are now made with 100% US-built battery packs.

• Tesla achieved record orders in a single day in the Asia-Pacific region with the launch of the Refreshed Model Y.

  • This is the most competitive region for EVs, and a validation of Tesla’s cost structure and positioning.

• Giga Berlin built its 500,000th Model Y this quarter.

• Tesla has officially opened the first overseas market for the Cybertruck - Saudi Arabia.

• Q1 is historically the worst quarter for auto sales, and the best quarter to do production swaps

  • Tesla used this as an opportunity to do the swap at all 4 factories around the world at the same time

  • Never been done before - especially as 1.1 million Model Y’s are built per year globally.

Optimus

• Tesla’s Fremont factory is preparing production for the Optimus pilot line for 2025, and wider deployments of Optimus for internal Tesla use is expected this year.

• There has been good progress on finalizing Optimus so far, still in prototyping stages

  • Tesla expects its pilot production line to begin running near the end of 2025

  • Several thousand units should be working in Tesla’s factories by the end of the year

  • Optimus ramp will be challenging, lots of new and unique components Tesla doesn’t make already

  • Optimus will use the AI4 computer

  • Shoulder actuators use permanent/rare earth magnets

    • Working with China to get a license for use

• Goal is 1 million units per year by 2030

Batteries

• The 4680 Cell (Cybercell) is IRA-complaint and eligible for the US Federal EV Rebate.

  • It is the lowest cost-per-kWh cell.

  • Tesla has diversified and protected the supply chain, and each component for the 4680 is sourced from at least two countries.

  • Lowest cost cell of any cell available on the market right now

  • Easy to build a flashy product that does one thing (e.g. charging fast) well, but difficult to scale it up and be profitable

• Tesla’s lithium refining and cathode production plans will start production in 2025, moving critical battery production to the US.

  • Will be the biggest lithium refinery outside of China, and could potentially expand to be the biggest.

  • Cathode production will also make a big impact

  • Anode production or removing anodes entirely is being worked on

• Tesla is no longer supply constrained for vehicle batteries, but is constrained on LFP batteries for North America due to tariffs.

Supply Chain

• Tesla is continuing to localize supply chains where possible

  • Makes sense from a cost and logistics risk standpoint

    • Supply chains should be located on the continent of which the vehicle is built

  • Tesla is the least impacted car company in respect to tariffs

    • Places Tesla in a stronger position than their competitors

  • Elon believes in lower tariffs, and advocates for them

    • Tesla will be impacted by the May tariffs due to part production in Canada and Mexico, no way around this right now

  • Tesla has to buy equipment from outside the US and import it - it is expensive to bring in equipment from China

    • China has the most capacity to provide this equipment

• Tesla is working to on-shore production of LFP, as most Tesla Energy batteries are supplied from China

  • There is an outsized tariff impact on Tesla Energy at the current time, and Tesla is looking at non-China suppliers of Lithium

• Tesla is continuing to focus on adapting to policy changes

  • 85% of US-built vehicles have North American content

  • 95% of Asia-Pacific vehicles have Asian-Pacific content

  • Vertical integration and local partnerships are the key to increasing these

  • Tariff risks are higher for low-volume platforms (S, X, Cybertruck)

  • Tesla can bridge and cover production for other regions in times of crisis

  • Tesla is building strategic banks of parts they cannot vertically integrate, such as processors and microelectronics

  • Tesla is working to reduce or stop the reliance on rare earth magnets as much as possible

Energy

• There was a 154% increase in energy storage deployed YoY, for a total of 10.4GWh.

• Tesla is experiencing continued rapid growth in the energy market, but deliveries remain volatile due to the nature and scale of the projects.

• Megapack expands grid capabilities

  • Tesla is expecting more demand for Megapack in the near future due to the increasing use of AI. 

    • Megapack itself is extremely useful for many industrial use cases, not just AI.

  • It can effectively double grid capacity by buffering energy usage during off-peak hours

  • Tesla has many orders in the GWh range already, and is expecting demand in the TWh range in the future.

  • Tesla is supply constrained on Megapack

• Tesla deployed 1 GWh of Powerwall this quarter.

  • Extremely positive reception from customers; Tesla is supply constrained.

• Tesla delivered 1.4TWh of electricity by Supercharging this quarter, with a 26% YoY growth.

• Megafactory Shanghai is now online and producing Megapacks, over 100 are on-site and produced, ready to be shipped (not counted this quarter!)

  • Tesla expects 20GWh of annual production due to the localized supply chain, and up to 40GWh in the future.

Misc.

• Tesla is working on getting into India, cars going in are subject to 70% tariffs and 30% luxury tax

  • Would be an excellent market, aimed at India’s middle class

  • No discussion about localizing production in India at this time

    • Giga Berlin and Giga Shanghai likely have enough capacity

• Tesla acknowledged that vandalism, unwarranted hostility, and brand image have suffered in several markets, and likely played an impact, but did not have a functional impact on demand

  • In Q&A, Tesla’s executive team mentioned:

    • Biggest impact was reduced Model Y production

    • Tesla remained a best seller in Q1 in multiple regions, and interest remained high

    • Tesla experienced the highest number of test drives in this quarter, ever

    • Tesla isn’t immune to macro economic effects

Elon’s Opening Statement

Elon’s opening statement was interesting - and normally we just integrate it right into the rest of the points, but we’ll break it out here because it is fairly important.

• Elon acknowledges blowback for his time at DOGE

  • He believes that his work there is still important

    • DOGE team has made a lot of progress

  • Elon wanted to focus on fighting waste and fraud to benefit the US

• Most of the work with DOGE is done

  • Time with DOGE will drop significantly as of next month

  • Elon will continue to work with DOGE throughout the current term 

    • 1-2 days per week as needed

  • Elon says he will return to focusing on Tesla

  • DOGE’s mandate ends in July 2026, so Elon will likely have to step away entirely then unless it is extended

• This will be a bumpy year for Tesla

  • Elon is optimistic about the future of the company, but acknowledges 2025 will be challenging, but he doesn’t go into details

  • Still believes the future of the company is on large-scale autonomy

    • Both cars and humanoid robots

  • If Tesla can execute on autonomy, it is well placed for the future

Financial

• Tesla saw a 20% YoY decline in total automotive revenues

  • Partially due to a 15% decline in gross profit, and 9% rise in operating expenses

  • Tesla saw non-GAAP earnings per share drop to $0.27, from $0.45 in Q1 2024, and $0.60 in Q4 2024.

• Tesla attributed the majority of the decline in its vehicle deliveries due to the ramp of the Model Y across all four of its factories globally. The first time any automaker has launched a new model across all factories at the same time.

• Tesla’s average selling price (ASP) also declined due to a mix of sales and financing incentives.

• Overall, operating income decreased 66% YoY to $0.4B, which is a 2.1% operating margin.

• Tesla saw growth in the energy generation and storage sectors (Tesla Energy), and also a higher regulatory credit revenue for this quarter.

• Tesla’s continued ramp of the Cybertruck has seen a lower cost associated with its production as of Q1 2024.

• Tesla’s CAPEX for 2025 will be in excess of $10 Billion

  • Tesla is still evaluating what and where to invest.

Listen to Event

You can listen to the entire event below, which starts at the 7 minute, 9 second mark.

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Tesla's 2025 Q1 Earnings Call: How to Listen [Listen to Replay]

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Tesla is holding its 2025 Q1 earnings call today at 2:30 pm PT / 5:30 pm ET / 9:30 pm UTC. The earnings call will be followed by a Q&A session with Tesla executives, including Elon Musk.

We expect the focus to be on Tesla sales for the quarter, FSD Unsupservised and the Robotaxi network. Tesla may also discuss its upcoming, more affordable model, Optimus, and other products.

Update: If you prefer a recap of everything that was announced during Tesla’s earnings call, take a look at our bullet point list of everything Tesla announced.

Listen to Replay

The event will be live-streamed on Tesla’s site. It is also expected to be streamed on X and YouTube like it has been in the past. Tesla has changed this from an Earnings Call to a Company Update, but it’s unclear whether the phrase change holds any significance in what will be shared.

Update: You can listen to Tesla’s earnings call live below. If you prefer, you can also listen live on Tesla’s website.

Start Time

Tesla's live stream starts at 2:30 pm PT, which is the following times around the world:

2:30 pm Pacific Time

5:30 pm Eastern Time

9:30 pm UTC

10:30 pm - London, England

11:30 pm - Berlin, Germany

7:30 am (April 23rd) - Sydney, Australia

Q&A Questions

The questions asked during the Q&A portion of the call come directly from investors. These are currently the top-voted questions, so we’ll likely see answers to several of these questions:

1. What are the highest risk items on the critical path to robotaxi launch and scaling?

2. When will FSD unsupervised be available for personal use on personally-owned cars?

3. Is Tesla still on track for releasing “more affordable models” this year? Or will you be focusing on simplified versions to enhance affordability, similar to the RWD Cybertruck?

4. Does Tesla see robotaxi as a winner-take-most market, and as you approach the Austin launch, how do you expect to compare against Waymo’s offering, especially regarding pricing, geofencing and regulatory flexibility?

5. Can you please provide an update on the unboxed method and how that is progressing?

6. How is Tesla positioning itself to flexibly adapt to global economic risks in the form of tariffs, political biases, etc.?

7. Does Tesla still have a battery supply constraint (noted on Q4 ER call) and how does this change w/tariffs?

8. Did Tesla experience any meaningful changes in order inflow rate in Q1 relating to all of the rumors of “brand damage”?

9. Regarding the Tesla Optimus pilot line, could you confirm if it is currently operational? If so, what is the current production rate of Optimus bots per week? Additionally, how might the recent tariffs impact the scalability of this production line moving forward?

10. Robotaxi still on track for this year?’

Look Back at 2025 Q1 Numbers

Most of Tesla’s Q1 deliveries, 323,800 units, were unsurprisingly for the Model 3 and Model Y, while the “Other Models” category (including the Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X) accounted for 12,881 deliveries.

Comparing these numbers to Q1 2024, the Model 3/Y is down about 13%, while the Model S/X and Cybertruck are down about 24%.

In terms of production, Tesla built 345,454 Model 3/Y vehicles and 17,161 from its “Other Models” line. The company attributed the production drop to the Model Y changeover but stated that the ramp is “going well.” However, deliveries and production were both down year over year.

Although Tesla doesn’t officially break down its numbers by region, Troy Teslike, who closely monitors Tesla's delivery and production numbers has provided estimates that show Tesla’s deliveries across regions. Tesla delivered the most vehicles in China this past quarter, so it’ll be interesting to see if this trend continues.

His estimates for the regional break down are below:

We expect a large portion of Tesla’s earnings call to focus on the long-awaited launch of its Robotaxi, and we will hopefully receive an update on its upcoming, more affordable model, which is rumored to be delayed.

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