European document reveals that Tesla is adding hardware 4.0 to the Model S and Model X
Tesla
Tesla's highly anticipated FSD hardware 4, also known as HW4, will be installed in new vehicles any day. The company received European approval to sell its latest FSD hardware in the Model S and Model X vehicles.
The timeline for deployment of the new computer that operates the most technologically advanced vehicle in the world has been a mystery. There was some speculation that Tesla may hold off launching the highly advanced system until Cybertruck's release. However, only a limited number of Cybertrucks are expected this year, with full production starting in 2024.
Several Changes Incoming
Several other changes are being made to Teslas according to the European Certificate, issued by the Dutch vehicle authority RDW, dated January 20, 2023. The maximum speed for the Model S is increasing to 174 MPH (280 km/h) from the factory. But owners can tack on even more speed with the optional Carbon Ceramic Brake Kit, which will boost the car to the previously mentioned 200 MPH (322 km/h). It sounds like the Carbon Ceramic Brake Kit option may soon become available.
Hardware 4.0
Unfortunately, the European certificate doesn't reveal any details on what is included in Tesla's 4th generation Autopilot hardware. The system is expected to use 5-megapixel cameras, which will give Autopilot a substantial advantage in determining objects that are further away. The new hardware will also include a new FSD computer which is expected to be about 4x more powerful than the FSD computer in hardware 3 today. Additionally, HW4 is expected to include an HD radar, which could significantly improve FSD. In the same line item as the new FSD computer, Tesla also mentions a new GNSS antenna that is used for GPS. However, GNSS antennas also provide support for other systems such as GLONASS, Baidu, and Galileo.
Other Changes to the Model S and Model X
Other approved European updates are new Gen3 inverters and changes to the automatic headlights. In addition, the Model X will have a unified braking system and a new stay arm for the interior rear-view mirror. Finally, the cosmetic changes that rolled out in North America last month will also be implemented in Europe with the rear badging.
Retrofits will not be Offered by Tesla
It is yet to be known when the new hardware will debut, but Tesla will not retrofit the existing fleet. During the fourth quarter earnings call, Elon Musk said that the "cost and difficulty of retrofitting hardware 3 with hardware 4 is quite significant. So, it would not be, I think, economically feasible to do so."
This could be due to the new HD radar, new power, or space requirements for the new computer or radar, or due to complexities with wiring harnesses. It would also put a huge burden on Tesla Service, which would have to upgrade millions of vehicles. There could also be more to hardware 4.0 that has not been disclosed.
Model 3 and Model Y
It's not surprising that Tesla has decided to introduce hardware 4.0 to the Model S and Model X first. These are lower-volume vehicles and it makes sense for them to slowly roll out these changes. Parts may still be limited or Tesla may want to reduce the cost of a recall if there are any issues with the new hardware. We know the upcoming Cybertruck will also use hardware 4.0, but that still leaves the Model 3 and Model Y out. However, we speculate that Tesla will try to get the Model 3 and Y updated as soon as possible. Once the word is out that the Model S and Model X vehicles include hardware 4.0, many owners may prefer to wait before ordering or taking delivery of a Model 3 or Model Y.
We will likely find out more about FSD hardware 4.0 very soon as these vehicles start being delivered to customers.
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There has been extensive reporting on what the long-anticipated affordable EV option would become, and we’ve seen numerous news stories mentioning that it was delayed or even arriving on time. The executive team revealed the near-term and long-term plans for Tesla’s upcoming vehicles, and there’s definitely good news to share here.
Updated Timeline
The most important piece of news is that despite all the talk of delays from supposed inside sources, Tesla has confirmed that the plan for its more affordable model remains on schedule for production to begin in the first half of 2025. Tesla’s executive team narrowed that timeline down further - and said that they expect production to kick off as soon as June and that the new model will be in the market shortly thereafter.
While the production timeline itself is on track, Tesla did note that the subsequent ramping process will likely be slower than initially hoped, citing global tariff and financial impacts as challenges to overcome to prepare its production lines.
Hybrid Production Approach
Tesla has once again confirmed that this will not be their next-generation vehicle, built using new production methods. Instead, they outlined a relatively more pragmatic approach for this new model.
Tesla will utilize aspects of both the next-generation platform as well as some parts of its current platforms (namely the Model 3 and Model Y). This means that Tesla will produce this new vehicle on the same manufacturing lines as the Model 3 and Model Y.
This strategy allows Tesla to bring the vehicle to the market more quickly, while also managing capital expenditures more efficiently by using existing infrastructure. However, Tesla’s executive team also noted that this approach, while faster, will result in fewer cost reductions than what might have been achieved with an entirely new platform and dedicated manufacturing process.
Vehicle Design
Using these existing production lines means that Tesla’s new vehicle will likely share some considerable similarities with either the existing Model 3 or Model Y. Rather than being a radically different and smaller vehicle, this new model will resemble the overall form factor and shape of Tesla’s current core offerings, while being optimized for a lower cost.
This doesn’t mean that Tesla is forgetting the overall goal here. Their ultimate goal is to reduce the initial cost of ownership and lower monthly payments for customers while maintaining a standard of excellence and safety.
Not Unboxed
Both at this Earnings Call and previous ones, Tesla has indicated that this new vehicle will not be using the innovative unboxed assembly method, at least for the time being. That relatively unique method will be developed and implemented specifically for the purpose-built Cybercab and for future vehicles on the next-generation platform.
We’re just a few days away from May, so it won’t be long before we see more about this upcoming vehicle. Stay tuned.
In a follow-up move to the current US administration’s goals to introduce a federal framework for autonomous vehicles, the US Department of Transportation (USDOT) is loosening autonomy restrictions following an announcement from Secretary Sean Duffy on X. This new initiative helps streamline complex regulatory processes and foster home-grown innovation.
From the Wright Brothers to the first astronauts on the moon, our nation has always been at the forefront of transportation technology.
That’s why today we're unveiling a new Automated Vehicle Framework from @USDOT’s Innovation Agenda ⬇️ ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/W3kbMUwQSn
As part of the broader upcoming USDOT Innovation Agenda, the newly unveiled AV Framework is designed to promote American innovation and strengthen domestic engineering while maintaining existing safety standards. The framework centers around three key principles:
Prioritize Safety
Unleash Innovation
Enable Commercial Deployment
To kickstart this AV framework, USDOT announced two initial steps focused on streamlining processes and expanding opportunities.
Crash Reporting Requirements
Under the first principle to Prioritize Safety, the National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration (NHTSA) will maintain its Standing General Order requiring crash reporting on Advanced and Automated Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS and ADS).
However, the reporting process will be streamlined following feedback from AV innovators, likely including Tesla. The goal here is to focus on collecting critical safety information while removing unnecessary or duplicative items from the reporting process, thereby reducing the burden without compromising safety.
Cutting Red Tape
Directly tied to the second principle of Unleash Innovation, the framework also seeks to slash red tape. The first step here is the expansion of the Automated Vehicle Exemption Program, or AVEP. This program allows manufacturers to petition for temporary exemptions from certain federal motor vehicle safety standards (FMVSS) for testing or deployment purposes.
Previously, the standard excluded domestically produced vehicles. Now, domestically produced AVs will not need to meet FMVSS, which will broaden the scope for manufacturers to test more innovative and unique designs and technologies.
Single National Standard for AVs
Finally, tied to the third principle of Enable Commerical Development, USDOT intends to move the United States closer to a single national standard for autonomous vehicles. This aims to prevent a confusing and inefficient patchwork of state-level or city-level laws and regulations, which can create hurdles for companies attempting to innovate, deploy, and scale their technology.
A unified standard across the United States also means that Canada and Mexico will likely be able to follow, as they share homologization standards across North America, including for vehicle crash safety and some autonomy regulations.
What This Means for Tesla
These framework changes will likely have a substantial impact on Tesla. The move towards a national standard is potentially the most impactful change, as Tesla identified regulatory hurdles as one of the most significant challenges it will face with the deployment of both Unsupervised FSD and its Robotaxi network.
The reduction of FMVSS requirements and streamlined reporting will likely play a role in the future as well. The FMVSS requirements are probably already being worked on, if not already met, by the Cybercab and other vehicles in Tesla’s lineup.
Meanwhile, the streamlined reporting will be helpful once Tesla officially launches its Robotaxi network in June.
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