Why Tesla's Next Car Should Not Be a Smaller, $25K Vehicle
Tesla is known for its luxurious, high-end electric vehicles with cutting-edge technology and impressive performance. However, the company may be planning a significant pivot to produce a more affordable car that would cater to a broader audience. This move would undoubtedly shake up the automotive industry, but one renowned industry expert thinks a cheap vehicle, while doable, is not the right move for Tesla.
Sandy Munro recently shared his insights on the future of electric vehicles, specifically Tesla, with Tesla Owners Silicon Valley. Munro sees a path that Tesla could achieve this less expensive car. According to Munro, it would need to use lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which are cheaper and still good enough for most of the population. Tesla currently only uses LFP batteries in a portion of their models today.
Sandy Munro Discussing Tesla
The Risk with Small, Cheap Cars
Munro says no one makes much money on small cars, especially in North America. Furthermore, Tesla would have to be more frugal in its approach to creating a more affordable vehicle. This approach means the company would have to consider what features are not essential. For example, Munro suggests that cheaper drum brakes could be used instead of disc brakes and that Bose stereo system might not be necessary for a more affordable car.
Munro says Tesla could get down to $24,000 to $28,000. But he cautions, "coming out with the cheap car, what does it really do for you? Not much, because people are still willing to put their hand in their pocket and pull out 40 grand and say I want that one. That is the risk with small cars." He also says small cars make a few hundred dollars per unit sold, considerably less than Tesla's current margins.
However, Musk must see some advantages in offering a more affordable car; he told the B20 conference in November, "Musk responded to the question familiarly, "I can't speak too much to the future of Tesla product development, except to say that we do think that making a much more affordable vehicle would make a lot of sense and we should do something."
A No-Risk Proposition with High-Profit Potential
Nevertheless, there is a significant gap in the market that Tesla could not only fill but dominate, "if I were Elon Musk, I'd be looking at making a minivan or something like that. He can still make a shitload of money and not take any risk. That is a no-risk proposition, making a minivan." Musk has floated the idea of a "highly configurable vehicle" in the past, and Munro sees a gaping hole. "When Dodge and Chrysler walked away from the minivan, there was no minivan out there. There is one, Kia Carnival and these guys can't keep them in the showroom."
Munro thinks it is the marketing people who killed the minivan, "everybody in marketing says, 'oh, we don't want to produce a car like that because it emasculates men and it gives women the image of being a soccer mom.' Guess what? There are a lot of guys out there who like that car because it was the biggest selling thing they had, and on top of that, there are a lot of soccer moms! So why not try and take advantage of that?"
A Tesla minivan would have all the amenities expected from the brand, but it could also sell the safety factor. Teslas are repeatedly awarded for their rigorous design and commitment to safety. Given that minivans are synonymous with transporting young families, it would be a perfect match.
We will learn about Tesla's next-generation model on Investor Day on March 1.
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