The Tesla Model 3 and Model Y are in the Top 10 vehicles sold worldwide
Tesla
Tesla's CEO, Elon Musk, once said, "I say something, and then it usually happens. Maybe not on schedule, but it usually happens." In April 2021, Musk predicted that the Model Y would be the world's best-selling vehicle. He wasn't sure if it would happen in 2022, but he was confident the electric SUV would take the global crown from Toyota's Corolla in 2023.
Moving on Up
According to a report from Focus to Move, the Model Y is now the fourth best-selling vehicle worldwide after an astonishing 88 percent jump from 2021 to 2022. There were 759,000 Model Ys sold last year, just 28,000 units behind the third-place Ford F-150 which has been the best-selling truck for the previous 46 years. Toyota claimed the top two spots, with the RAV4 at 870,000 and the Corolla selling 1.12 million.
The runway is clear for the Model Y to vie for the world's best-selling car title in 2023. There are three critical elements to achieve the goal: capacity, demand and competition.
Capacity
First, capacity. To reach the top spot, the Model Y will need to increase its sales by approximately 60% compared to 2022, which is a very achievable goal, considering both the Giga Texas and Giga Berlin factories aim to produce 500,000 cars per year. During Tesla's Q4 earnings call, Elon Musk said Tesla plans to produce about 1.8 million vehicles in 2023, up about 37% from 2022. Musk later added that Tesla may be able to reach 2 million vehicles in 2023, which would be an increase of 52% over its 2022 numbers.
Demand
Second, demand is there. In the wake of the recent price drops, Bank of America predicts Tesla's volume to jump 53 percent, up from its original forecast for 17% growth. Also, Musk said during the fourth quarter earnings call that the company is receiving the most orders year to date in its history. Plus, the price tag of the Model Y and Model 3 is now very close. As a result, many buyers may consider getting into the slightly larger Model Y over the Model 3.
Competition
Thirdly, the competition. Toyota's Corolla is half the price of the Model Y. Therefore, to grab the top spot in the world, the Corolla will have to come down a few pegs. As the manufacturer is playing catch up on the EV market, perhaps the bZ4X will take away from Corolla's typical buyers.
Top 5 Cars Sold Worldwide
Below is a list of the top 5 vehicles sold worldwide, as compiled by Focus2Move. It's not clear whether Focus2Move includes used cars in their figures or if they include sales for vehicles that have yet to be delivered.
Model
Units Sold
Pct Change
1. Toyota Corolla
1,120,000
-2.2%
2. Toyota RAV4
871,220
-13.7%
3. Ford F-Series
786,303
-8.8%
4. Tesla Model Y
758,792
+88.5%
5. Toyota Camry
676,845
-2.7%
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In the lead-up to the Q4 2024 Earnings Call on January 29th, Tesla has released its Q4 2024 production and delivery numbers. This wraps up 2024, and while Tesla finished with a strong Q4, the total deliveries are slightly below the previous year.
For Q4, Tesla produced 459,445 vehicles and delivered 495,570 vehicles to its customers globally. For comparison, in Q3, Tesla produced about 10,000 more vehicles than in Q4, but Q4 deliveries were about 30,000 higher.
As usual, the Model 3 and Model Y accounted for the majority of sales, 436,718 vehicles produced and 471,930 vehicles deliveed. The Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X are lumped in as “Other Models” - totaling 22,727 produced and 23,640 delivered this quarter. This is about 700 more than the previous quarter. With Cybertruck production ramping up and sales expanding to Canada, this likely means dwindlingly for the Model S and Model X.
While production was relatively stagnant, Tesla experienced a fairly large growth in deliveries, likely due to the recent end-of-year and end-of-quarter sales push, which included the updated referral program and inventory vehicle price cuts.
It also seems like some demand has been tempered, as many people await the arrival of the refreshed Model Y Juniper, which is rumored to arrive in China as early as later this month.
Q4 2024 Breakdown
Model
Production
Deliveries
Model 3/Y
436,718
471,930
Other Models (Including CT)
22,727
23,640
Total
459,445
495,570
2024 Annual Breakdown
Model
Production
Deliveries
Model 3/Y
1,679,338
1,704,093
Other Models (Including CT)
94,105
85,133
Total
1,773,443
1,789,226
Year over year, Tesla produced and delivered slightly fewer Model 3 and Model Y vehicles than in 2023, but they did produce and deliver more of their Other Models - which includes the Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck.
It seems that Cybertruck has made a significant impact in the sales of the other models category, and given that it has already become profitable, this is fantastic news for Tesla. On the flip side, this does look like it means weaker sales for the Model S and Model X, which both seem in dire need of a refresh.
Below is a chart of the last five years of Tesla vehicle deliveries broken down by quarter. Tap on each section to reveal the numbers for each quarter.
7 Millionth Vehicle
During this past quarter, Tesla also hit a huge milestone by delivering their seven millionth vehicle. Tesla is delivering about 1.8 million vehicles per year, so we expect Tesla to also sell their eight millionth vehicle around mid-year and potentially their nine millionth later this year. With the Model Y being the world’s best-selling vehicle, it’s expected to have a huge surge in sales when the refreshed model is finally released.
Tesla Energy
Over on the Tesla energy side, Tesla deployed 11GWh of energy storage - a record for both deliveries and deployments. That is a 243% year-over-year increase since last year - and Mega Shanghai isn’t even operational yet. In total, Tesla deployed 31.4 GWh of energy storage throughout 2024.
Q4 2024 Earnings Call
The next major financial event for Tesla is the Q4 2024 Earnings Call, which will be taking place after market close on Wednesday, January 29, 2025. The call will be streamed on Tesla’s Investor Relations website, and we’ll provide a recap for you as well.
As 2024 winds down, it’s the perfect time to reflect on everything Tesla has achieved this year. From features like Autopark and ultra-wideband support to Weather Forecast, each update served as a building block for even bigger features that were yet to come.
Let’s take a journey back to January and revisit the milestones that brought us to where we are today.
January 2024
All the way back in January, Tesla launched their Smart Assistant in China, which replaced Voice Commands. It was our first of many indications that Tesla is pushing to launch improvements to the Voice Command suite. We also saw a new Voice later in the year, and just now with the Holiday Update, a new batch of Voice Commands.
Here’s to hoping 2025 will bring us a proper Smart Assistant and adaptive headlights for all Tesla owners.
February 2024
February saw the arrival of FSD “Beta” V12 - before we knew it would change over to FSD (Supervised). That first version started going out to early access users with update 2023.44.30.20 in February, and we really got to see for the first time what “End-to-End” really meant.
V12 was a game changer and much different than V11.4.9, which had been kicking around for a few months at that point. There was a lot of excitement around U-Turns, Park Seek (a feature finally being implemented in V13.2), and the updated Automatic Speed Offset.
March 2024
Vehicles equipped with USS were able to use Autopark, Summon, and Smart Summon, but newer vehicles began getting shipped as Vision-only, so they didn’t have access to these features. The first indication of their capabilities - and the overall replacement of USS Autopark with Vision Autopark started in March.
April was the launch month of the Model 3 Performance, with influencers getting hands-on with the Ludicrous new vehicle on the track and street. The Model 3 Performance arrived with new front and rear fascias, a new rear diffuser, and an updated carbon fiber spoiler on the exterior - but what really made it stand out was the Adaptive Suspension and Track Mode V3.
Elon also talked about his vision for FSD V12.5 and V12.6. Again, what a year it was when we look back. Much of what he spoke about, like handling more complex scenarios, Actually Smart Summon, and Fleet Communication, were released in V12.5. Some future version of V13 is supposed to bring with it better handling for complex scenarios, but that’s a goal that’s always shifting.
If anything, May was the month of the Spring Update (and all its unlisted improvements), and it brought us a lot of hype for the removal of wheel nag on FSD. It brought along Hands-Free Trunk opening, improved wiper controls, and the new beautiful parked visualization.
We also dove head-first into looking at Tesla’s Auto Wipers - and why they don’t work. They have for sure gotten better, but they still aren’t as simple as adding a rain sensor. The good news is that they only affect humans, and FSD does just fine due to the camera’s focal length.
Hardware 5 was a pretty interesting announcement, especially as Tesla also confirmed that Hardware 4 would eventually begin to diverge from Hardware 3 in 2025. However, we actually saw the divergence begin in late 2024, not to anyone’s surprise. Now we also know that Tesla is focusing on AI4, and they don’t intend to launch AI5 for at least another 12 months, but they do intend to continue supporting Hardware 3 for as long as possible, as shown by the launch of FSD 12.6 Monday night.
July 2024
July was the quietest month for Tesla news. Everyone was on FSD V12.3.6 for a while, and V12.4’s rollout had come to an abrupt stop. Tesla seemed like they were scrambling to organize themselves for the Robotaxi and Autonomy event to take place on August 8th, but the event was eventually pushed back to October.
August introduced a new, cheaper Model 3 for Mexico. Many were surprised at this vehicle’s introduction - and assumed that the new cloth would make its way to more vehicles across the lineup. However, the reduced price and features really stuck to just Mexico.
Tesla also confirmed HW3 would get support for FSD V12.5.1.4, much to everyone’s joy. After the announcement of AI5, many thought that V12.3.6 might be the final version of FSD for HW3.
With September arrived Actually Smart Summon - one of the biggest Robotaxi-esque features many have been waiting for. The ability to call your car to you from inside the parking lot is a feature that seems like absolute magic.
And once again, the iOS version of the Tesla App got a ton of fantastic updates, including updates to the control center, FaceID locking, updated Siri actions and Apple shortcuts, and the action button being able to work with Tesla functions - like preconditioning. Hopefully, Android users will eventually get the same treatment.
September also brought with it Tesla’s first FSD Roadmap. The roadmap laid out Tesla’s plans for FSD and autonomy and also mentioned several release timelines and what we should expect from future updates.
Tesla originally announced Unpark, Park, and Reverse in FSD for October, but it actually arrived in December with FSD V13. Tesla owners outside of North America are also waiting for FSD - with Tesla mentioning once again that it would arrive sometime in Q1 2025, and that Q2 2025 would bring FSD to Right Hand Drive markets.
October 2024
October was the month of Tesla’s We, Robot autonomy event. That event was Tesla’s latest product-focused event since the launch of the Cybertruck last year, and they really hit hard on autonomy.
Later in the month, Tesla also updated their FSD roadmap, and walked back some of the expectations they initially established in September. This included Tesla confirming HW3 owners will get a free hardware upgrade if Tesla can’t achieve Unsupervised FSD on those vehicles, as well as the complete rollout of End-to-End for the highway, global launches for Actually Smart Summon, and FSD V13 by Thanksgiving.
November was a bit calmer but we did see the first deliveries of the Foundation-Series Cybertruck in Canada, and we saw a bit of a preview of the Holiday Update. That also included Tesla’s fantastic new Service History feature, which will now embed vehicle service history into the vehicle.
We also did a deep dive into how Tesla is improving Sentry Mode efficiency - through computational tricks, advanced power management techniques, and taking advantage of the different types of hardware on board the vehicle.
Looking back, 2024 was really something special. After years of waiting, we’re finally seeing Tesla’s dreams of autonomy coming together. Unsupervised FSD and Robotaxi networks are on the horizon, while Optimus is still a glimmer in Tesla’s eye. We’re also looking forward to the grand opening of Tesla’s Semi Truck Factory in Texas, and the launch of FSD outside of North America.
2025 is poised to be another amazing year for Tesla, and we hope you’ll stick with us as we cover every little detail once again.
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