Tesla set new records in production and deliveries while beating analyst expectations.
Statista
Tesla published their Q4 2022 and full-year financial results, setting new records in production and deliveries while beating analyst expectations. Tesla’s annual profit rose to $12.6 billion in 2022, from $5.5 billion in 2021. Annual revenue rose to $81.5 billion, from $53.8 billion the year prior. Tesla reported fourth-quarter revenue of $24.32 billion beating analysts' $24.07 billion estimate. The automaker also reported earnings per share of $1.19 beating analysts' $1.12 estimate.
Tesla’s stock rose more than 5% in after-hours trading following the earnings release and surged more than 10% the next day.
Tesla's Q4 2022 revenue set a new record for the company, up 59% from a year earlier. In addition to automotive revenue of $21.3 billion, Tesla recognized $324 million of deferred revenue from the company’s driver assistance systems.
FSD Beta Numbers
Tesla reported that 90 million miles have now been driven with FSD Beta, up from 58 million miles in the previous quarter. The company also confirmed that they have about 400,000 FSD Beta users in North America, a sizeable increase since the last report. With such a steep increase in miles driven and FSD Beta becoming widely available in North America, Tesla is making significant progress with its autonomous driving software.
In late 2022 and into this year, Tesla began cutting prices on its cars globally. Elon spoke about how recent price cuts have fueled a surge in demand for Tesla: “Thus far in January we’ve seen the strongest orders year-to-date than ever in our history. We’re currently seeing orders of almost twice the rate of production.” He added: “These price changes really make a difference for the average consumer.” Tesla acknowledges that average sales prices have to decrease over time because affordability is part of Tesla's mission to grow into a company that sells multiple millions of cars annually.
Price cuts will impact profitability, but margins should remain healthy, Tesla CFO Zach Kirkhorn affirmed. Tesla has wider operating margins than the industry average, which allows them to make such price cuts.
Elon issued an uncertain forecast for 2023, saying Tesla planned on 1.8 million vehicles for the year without specifying whether that was a target for production or deliveries. If the company were to deliver 1.8 million vehicles in 2023, that would result in 37% annual growth.
Tesla’s latest vehicles, including the Cybertruck, Cybercab, and the refreshed Model Y, now feature a front bumper camera. However, as of FSD v13.2.8, the Cybertruck’s bumper camera remains unused for FSD and primarily serves as a helpful tool for parking and off-road driving.
With bumper cameras becoming more common across Tesla’s lineup, the question remains: will they eventually become a necessary component for Unsupervised FSD, or are they simply an added convenience for now?
Actually Smart Summon Needs Bumper Vision
Not a Tesla App
Every Tesla model that has the ability to use Actually Smart Summon occasionally rolls slightly forward or backward before exiting a parking stall. This movement helps the vehicle get a better view of what’s directly beneath the front lip of the hood before proceeding.
However, this behavior has led some vehicles to make contact with walls or posts, prompting the NHTSA to launch an investigation into Actually Smart Summon. The simple solution is to mount a lower front camera that allows the vehicle to see what’s directly in front of it when it wakes up.
The Cybertruck currently lacks access to Actually Smart Summon—or any Summon functionality, for that matter. Tesla hasn’t announced when the vehicle will receive one of its most advanced autonomy features. Given the vehicle’s height and its larger front blind spot, the delay likely stems from the need to integrate the bumper camera for improved visibility.
At the end of the day, Actually Smart Summon is essential for Unsupervised FSD. A fully autonomous vehicle must be capable of navigating crowded parking lots, reaching pickup points, and parking itself without human intervention.
Training Data and Cameras
We already know that adding a new vehicle to FSD can take months—but what about integrating training data from an entirely new camera and perspective? That process could take even longer, especially with a vehicle like the Cybertruck, which is larger and wider than Tesla’s other models.
We also know that the Cybercab—set to launch in Austin in just a few months—features a bumper camera to improve visibility below the front lip. Tesla doesn’t add new components without purpose; every part, from the camera and wiring to the housing and engineering, represents a calculated investment.
Given this, it’s reasonable to expect that Tesla is already using bumper camera data from the Cybertruck—and soon, the refreshed Model Y—to train an updated FSD model. Whether this model is focused on parking lot navigation and Actually Smart Summon or expands to broader FSD improvements on city streets and highways remains to be seen.
Compute and AI5
Tesla has already stated that the AI4 computer has unused compute power, but they’re running into memory limitations in future FSD builds due to the sheer volume of incoming data. That said, Tesla has hinted at optimizations to better manage memory on AI4.
Would integrating data from an additional camera overwhelm the system? Probably not in terms of compute, but memory efficiency remains a key area for improvement—especially as Tesla plans to triple both the model size and context window in upcoming FSD versions.
On the other hand, the Cybercab is set to launch with its own unique, more powerful AI5 computer. At the We, Robot autonomy event in October, Elon Musk confirmed that AI5 was designed for redundancy and higher safety. Tesla has been working on parallelizing FSD computations for some time—but we’ll explore that in a separate article.
Wrapping it Together
Putting it all together: the bumper camera has arrived, and Tesla doesn’t add hardware without a purpose. While it’s not yet in use for FSD, Tesla is likely gathering footage to train future models. The AI4 computer has the compute power to handle an additional data stream—but will Tesla actually integrate it?
If we were to go out on a limb, we’d say that Unsupervised FSD will likely require a bumper camera to be part of the Robotaxi network, but there’s another compelling reason. Tesla currently offers Supervised FSD for subscription and sale - but you can no longer buy FSD the way it used to be marketed. That changed back in September 2024, when they made adjustments to all their websites globally to list Supervised FSD as the product and feature that was being sold. That could have an impact on Tesla’s future plans with how they offer Unsupervised vs Supervised FSD.
So, will a bumper camera be necessary? We think so. Will it be a retrofit? Possibly. Tesla has already confirmed that they will retrofit HW3 vehicles with improved hardware in the future, meaning that other FSD hardware upgrades aren’t completely off the table.
However, retrofitting a bumper camera is complex, requiring extensive disassembly, wiring through the frunk, firewall, and into the AI computer. It’s possible that the camera will primarily be used for low-speed parking lot maneuvers—where supervision will be required—while Unsupervised FSD will only be available while driving on city streets and highways. The largest issue is simply what happens if the vehicle was asleep, and it can now only leave by driving forward — where it has a large blind spot.
While the exact role of the front bumper camera remains uncertain, its presence in newer models suggests it could be critical for a. fully autonomous vehicle. Whether it becomes a requirement for the vehicle to start driving from a parked position without anyone inside the vehicle, or whether it’ll only be required in parking lots or even to become a part of the Robotaxi network remains to be seen.
Tesla’s latest software update, version 2025.2, brings new features to Service Mode, continuing the trend of improving in-vehicle diagnostics.
Currently, this feature is only available for vehicles with AMD Ryzen infotainment systems and requires Service Mode+, which is a subscription service aimed at technicians. Intel-powered vehicles aren’t supported yet, but we expect this feature to roll out to them as well unless hardware limitations prevent it.
Thanks to Spencer for providing an image of the panel in action.
Signal Viewer Panel
While update 2025.2.6 adds four service mode improvements, including updates to brake burnishing, charge port calibration, and noise recording panel improvements. In this article, we’ll focus on the new signal viewer panel.
This new panel offers a live data feed from selectable vehicle sensors. You select the signals you’re interested in and it’ll plot the signal on a graph. In addition to allowing you to view real-time signal data, it also allows you to record them.
The signals are searchable and can be easily added or removed from the panel. You can track up to 10 sensors, and the UI allows three of them to be viewable at once.
However, this is Service Mode and it’s more than just pretty looks. You can really dig down into these charts. You can pan them left and right through time, and tapping a specific point shows the exact value of that signal. The panel also supports pinch-to-zoom, enabling you to adjust the time scale across all panels simultaneously.
This feature is exclusive to Service Mode+, which requires a subscription to Tesla’s ToolBox3 software and a connection to a computer. It’s designed to help technicians diagnose issues related to signal quality, noise in the vehicle’s electrical systems, and signal variance in components during driving.
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