With an attentive driver, Tesla's Autopilot is 10x safer than the average vehicle
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Tesla released new Autopilot data just one day after the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) had an impromptu chat with reporters. The acting head, Ann Carlson, said her agency was devoting significant resources to the ongoing extensive investigation of crashes involving Tesla on Autopilot. Carlson said she wanted to ensure the agency had all of the information. Tesla just gave it to her.
Tesla's Data Proves a Point
“We are proud of Autopilot’s performance and its impact on reducing traffic collisions,” the company states with a January 2023 Vehicle Safety Report update. The numbers are staggering. In the 3rd quarter, one crash was recorded for every 6.26 million miles driven using Autopilot. Teslas not using Autopilot technology logged one crash for every 1.71 million miles driven.
For comparison, the NHTSA estimated one automobile crash every 652,000 miles. That equates to Tesla drivers without Autopilot engaged being 2.5 times safer and with Autopilot being used ten times safer than the national average.
Why Did Tesla Stop Reporting?
The company states, “the benefit and promise of Autopilot is clear from the Vehicle Safety Report data that we have been sharing for 4 years.” Tesla stopped publishing the numbers in 2021. It explained that data collection needed improvement, “Specifically, we discovered reports of certain events where no airbag or other active restraint deployed, single events that were counted more than once, and reports of invalid or duplicated mileage records.”
Incredible Improvement Year-Over-Year
Tesla issued all of the information from the quarters that were missing. There’s a significant improvement in year-over-year data. In the third quarter of 2021, Tesla recorded one crash per 5.54 million miles with Autopilot; that number has increased to 6.26 million. While Tesla drivers without Autopilot were involved in a crash once every 1.58 million, that is now 1.71.
Tesla's commitment to developing the safest cars in the world was recently put in the spotlight when four people were unharmed after a horrifying 250-foot drop off a cliff in California. The Model Y protected the two adults and two children inside, and firefighters called it a miracle.
The company continually receives accolades for safety. When it’s already producing the safest cars in the world, Tesla can only compete with itself. As we know from watching Tesla’s A.I. Day, a team of engineers is working with the most bleeding-edge technology to continue to improve the product. For that, we thank them.
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There has been extensive reporting on what the long-anticipated affordable EV option would become, and we’ve seen numerous news stories mentioning that it was delayed or even arriving on time. The executive team revealed the near-term and long-term plans for Tesla’s upcoming vehicles, and there’s definitely good news to share here.
Updated Timeline
The most important piece of news is that despite all the talk of delays from supposed inside sources, Tesla has confirmed that the plan for its more affordable model remains on schedule for production to begin in the first half of 2025. Tesla’s executive team narrowed that timeline down further - and said that they expect production to kick off as soon as June and that the new model will be in the market shortly thereafter.
While the production timeline itself is on track, Tesla did note that the subsequent ramping process will likely be slower than initially hoped, citing global tariff and financial impacts as challenges to overcome to prepare its production lines.
Hybrid Production Approach
Tesla has once again confirmed that this will not be their next-generation vehicle, built using new production methods. Instead, they outlined a relatively more pragmatic approach for this new model.
Tesla will utilize aspects of both the next-generation platform as well as some parts of its current platforms (namely the Model 3 and Model Y). This means that Tesla will produce this new vehicle on the same manufacturing lines as the Model 3 and Model Y.
This strategy allows Tesla to bring the vehicle to the market more quickly, while also managing capital expenditures more efficiently by using existing infrastructure. However, Tesla’s executive team also noted that this approach, while faster, will result in fewer cost reductions than what might have been achieved with an entirely new platform and dedicated manufacturing process.
Vehicle Design
Using these existing production lines means that Tesla’s new vehicle will likely share some considerable similarities with either the existing Model 3 or Model Y. Rather than being a radically different and smaller vehicle, this new model will resemble the overall form factor and shape of Tesla’s current core offerings, while being optimized for a lower cost.
This doesn’t mean that Tesla is forgetting the overall goal here. Their ultimate goal is to reduce the initial cost of ownership and lower monthly payments for customers while maintaining a standard of excellence and safety.
Not Unboxed
Both at this Earnings Call and previous ones, Tesla has indicated that this new vehicle will not be using the innovative unboxed assembly method, at least for the time being. That relatively unique method will be developed and implemented specifically for the purpose-built Cybercab and for future vehicles on the next-generation platform.
We’re just a few days away from May, so it won’t be long before we see more about this upcoming vehicle. Stay tuned.
In a follow-up move to the current US administration’s goals to introduce a federal framework for autonomous vehicles, the US Department of Transportation (USDOT) is loosening autonomy restrictions following an announcement from Secretary Sean Duffy on X. This new initiative helps streamline complex regulatory processes and foster home-grown innovation.
From the Wright Brothers to the first astronauts on the moon, our nation has always been at the forefront of transportation technology.
That’s why today we're unveiling a new Automated Vehicle Framework from @USDOT’s Innovation Agenda ⬇️ ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/W3kbMUwQSn
As part of the broader upcoming USDOT Innovation Agenda, the newly unveiled AV Framework is designed to promote American innovation and strengthen domestic engineering while maintaining existing safety standards. The framework centers around three key principles:
Prioritize Safety
Unleash Innovation
Enable Commercial Deployment
To kickstart this AV framework, USDOT announced two initial steps focused on streamlining processes and expanding opportunities.
Crash Reporting Requirements
Under the first principle to Prioritize Safety, the National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration (NHTSA) will maintain its Standing General Order requiring crash reporting on Advanced and Automated Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS and ADS).
However, the reporting process will be streamlined following feedback from AV innovators, likely including Tesla. The goal here is to focus on collecting critical safety information while removing unnecessary or duplicative items from the reporting process, thereby reducing the burden without compromising safety.
Cutting Red Tape
Directly tied to the second principle of Unleash Innovation, the framework also seeks to slash red tape. The first step here is the expansion of the Automated Vehicle Exemption Program, or AVEP. This program allows manufacturers to petition for temporary exemptions from certain federal motor vehicle safety standards (FMVSS) for testing or deployment purposes.
Previously, the standard excluded domestically produced vehicles. Now, domestically produced AVs will not need to meet FMVSS, which will broaden the scope for manufacturers to test more innovative and unique designs and technologies.
Single National Standard for AVs
Finally, tied to the third principle of Enable Commerical Development, USDOT intends to move the United States closer to a single national standard for autonomous vehicles. This aims to prevent a confusing and inefficient patchwork of state-level or city-level laws and regulations, which can create hurdles for companies attempting to innovate, deploy, and scale their technology.
A unified standard across the United States also means that Canada and Mexico will likely be able to follow, as they share homologization standards across North America, including for vehicle crash safety and some autonomy regulations.
What This Means for Tesla
These framework changes will likely have a substantial impact on Tesla. The move towards a national standard is potentially the most impactful change, as Tesla identified regulatory hurdles as one of the most significant challenges it will face with the deployment of both Unsupervised FSD and its Robotaxi network.
The reduction of FMVSS requirements and streamlined reporting will likely play a role in the future as well. The FMVSS requirements are probably already being worked on, if not already met, by the Cybercab and other vehicles in Tesla’s lineup.
Meanwhile, the streamlined reporting will be helpful once Tesla officially launches its Robotaxi network in June.
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