Tesla reports 1.31 million deliveries in 2022, growth of 40% over last year
Statista
Tesla just released its fourth-quarter vehicle production and delivery numbers for 2022. In the final quarter of 2022, Tesla produced 439,701 vehicles bringing annual production up to 1.37 million, up 47% from a year ago.
The automaker delivered 405,278 vehicles in Q4, missing the company-compiled consensus estimate of 417,957 deliveries for the quarter and 1.33 million deliveries for the year. Delivery numbers hold a lot of weight for Tesla investors as they are the closest approximation of sales disclosed by the company.
Tesla reported 1.31 million total deliveries in 2022, a growth of 40% over last year. While this growth rate is remarkable, the electric-car maker fell short of its initial goal of increasing annual deliveries by 50%.
In the third quarter of 2022, Tesla wrote: “Over a multi-year horizon we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries. The rate of growth will depend on our equipment capacity, factory uptime, operational efficiency, and the capacity and stability of the supply chain.”
Such a growth rate would have required more than 1.4 million deliveries for the year. Tesla attributes this underperformance to changes in how the company distributes cars to customers. These changes led to more vehicles being in transit to their final destination at the end of the year.
The U.S. tax credit that went into effect in 2023 likely also played a role. Many customers chose to put off their deliveries in late 2022 so that they could benefit from the savings. Tesla eventually offered a discount to compensate customers who would miss out on the tax credit.
Tesla delivery numbers since 2012
Statista
The fourth quarter of 2022 was challenging for Tesla, primarily due to a Covid outbreak in China, which caused a temporary suspension of production at its Shanghai factory. During the fourth quarter, Tesla offered steep discounts and promotions in the U.S., China, and elsewhere to stimulate demand, putting pressure on its margins.
Despite a challenging quarter, Wall Street expects Tesla's 2022 sales growth to raise annual revenue by more than 50% from a year earlier and exceed $82 billion, according to analysts surveyed by FactSet.
Analysts predict that profit will increase more than 100% from 2021 to nearly $13 billion. Tesla's growth this year can be attributed to its two newly built factories in Austin, Texas and Brandenburg, Germany.
Tesla is set to report full fourth-quarter results on January 25th. Additionally, Tesla announced its first-ever Investor Day on March 1st, where the company will discuss its next-generation vehicle platform, among other topics.
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Tesla signaled its intention to launch its first Robotaxi network in Austin, Texas, with company-owned and operated vehicles, back in January. This network will be Tesla’s first foray into truly autonomous vehicles - ones that aren’t being directly supervised by a driver. Later in February, Tesla’s executive team confirmed that the plans were on track for the launch of the Austin network both on X and during several interviews that they participated in.
At the end of February, we also found out that Tesla has applied for a Supervised Robotaxi license in California, where the network will also launch, but with safety drivers in place.
This is an ambitious plan, but FSD has really come a long way in the past year. FSD V12 was a massive step forward from V11, and V13 has made the experience smoother and safer than ever before. FSD V14 is expected to be another big step up with auto-regressive transformers and audio input.
Still on Track
Now, Elon has tripled down on the fact that Tesla will be launching their first autonomous robotaxi network in Austin - just two months away at this point. It seems that Tesla is fully set to launch their first fully unsupervised self-driving vehicles that will carry paying passengers in June.
Additional Cities
The best part is that Elon also confirmed that they’re targeting robotaxi networks launching in many cities within the United States by the end of this year. However, remember that this will be a Tesla-run network at first - Tesla owners won’t be able to add their vehicles to the Robotaxi fleet right away.
Adding Customer Vehicles
It will take some time before Tesla meets their strict internal safety requirements before it lets customers add their own vehicles to the network. Tesla’s executive team mentioned that they intend to let owners add their own vehicles to the fleet sometime in 2026. This happens to be the same time frame that Tesla plans to launch the Robotaxi across the United States, Mexico, and Canada — something that could only be done with customer-owned cars.
That final step will be bold—and it may come with complications, especially given that autonomous vehicle approval spans municipal, state or provincial, and even federal levels. There are plenty of regulatory hurdles ahead, but this is undoubtedly shaping up to be one of the most exciting times for Tesla.
Launch Event
With the Robotaxi network launching and Unsupervised FSD just around the corner, there’s a lot to get excited about. Tesla is expected to host a launch event at Gigafactory Texas in Austin to mark the debut of its first Robotaxi network. The company previously hinted that referral code users could receive invites—offering a rare chance to score an early ride in a Robotaxi outside the Hollywood studio lot.
Tesla’s engineering mule vehicles—used to test autonomy for future platforms—have resurfaced after an extended absence. The last time we saw them was back in July, when Tesla was gearing up for its initial We, Robot event. Since then, sightings have been scarce.
These vehicles typically signal that Tesla is testing new camera placements or validating FSD ground-truth data. This time, however, they appear to be outfitted exclusively with the updated camera hardware seen on the Cybercab.
New Sightings
The mules have now been spotted in Boston, Massachusetts, and Concord, New Hampshire—their first known appearances this far east. This suggests Tesla is actively collecting data to evaluate and optimize FSD performance in new regions. Thanks to Reddit user Ready_Medium_6693 for catching the one in Concord.
Elon Musk recently mentioned that Tesla plans to expand Robotaxi networks beyond the initial Texas and California launches. So while these sightings aren’t entirely unexpected, the speed of their arrival is. It suggests Tesla is confident in its ability to train FSD for local traffic rules and driving behaviors to the point it no longer needs a driver.
Bumper Cameras
The vehicle that’s been spotted in Boston is the usual Tesla engineering Model 3… except with one unique twist. It includes a front bumper camera. Shout out to @Dylan02939106 for catching the bumper camera in these photos.
The Refreshed Model 3 Mule with a Bumper Camera!
@Dylan02939106 on X
We previously released an opinion piece regarding whether the front bumper camera would be required for Unsupervised FSD. In our eyes, Tesla will require a bumper camera for Unsupervised FSD - if only to improve direct visibility in the bumper area of the vehicle. This is key for low-speed maneuvering in crowded areas like parking lots and garages, as well as for key features like Actually Smart Summon.
It isn’t surprising that Tesla is continuing to evaluate vehicles with a bumper camera - the Cybertruck, Cybercab, and Refreshed Model Y all have them now - and the rest of the lineup, including the flagship Model S and X, as well as the refreshed Model 3 - were supposed to eventually receive them as well.
With the Model S and Model X set for refreshes this year—and the front bumper camera on this Model 3 looking well-integrated rather than a temporary setup—it seems likely that front bumper cameras will soon become standard across Tesla’s entire lineup.
The Robotaxi Mule in Boston
@Dylan02939106 on X
In fact, Tesla’s newest iteration of the FSD computer has a slot for the Bumper Camera on all AI4/HW4 vehicles, so a future retrofit could even be possible.
These are some pretty exciting times - we may see Robotaxi networks actually deploy in time for Tesla’s lofty goal of “sometime in 2026” for cities throughout North America. Once many American cities begin to accept their deployment, it will be easier to seek homologation in Mexico and Canada, enabling deployment throughout the continent.
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