Tesla Reports 1.31 Million Deliveries in 2022, Growth of 40%

Tesla reports 1.31 million deliveries in 2022, growth of 40% over last year

Statista

Tesla just released its fourth-quarter vehicle production and delivery numbers for 2022. In the final quarter of 2022, Tesla produced 439,701 vehicles bringing annual production up to 1.37 million, up 47% from a year ago.

The automaker delivered 405,278 vehicles in Q4, missing the company-compiled consensus estimate of 417,957 deliveries for the quarter and 1.33 million deliveries for the year. Delivery numbers hold a lot of weight for Tesla investors as they are the closest approximation of sales disclosed by the company.

Tesla reported 1.31 million total deliveries in 2022, a growth of 40% over last year. While this growth rate is remarkable, the electric-car maker fell short of its initial goal of increasing annual deliveries by 50%.

In the third quarter of 2022, Tesla wrote: “Over a multi-year horizon we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries. The rate of growth will depend on our equipment capacity, factory uptime, operational efficiency, and the capacity and stability of the supply chain.”

Such a growth rate would have required more than 1.4 million deliveries for the year. Tesla attributes this underperformance to changes in how the company distributes cars to customers. These changes led to more vehicles being in transit to their final destination at the end of the year.

The U.S. tax credit that went into effect in 2023 likely also played a role. Many customers chose to put off their deliveries in late 2022 so that they could benefit from the savings. Tesla eventually offered a discount to compensate customers who would miss out on the tax credit.

Tesla delivery numbers since 2012

Statista

The fourth quarter of 2022 was challenging for Tesla, primarily due to a Covid outbreak in China, which caused a temporary suspension of production at its Shanghai factory. During the fourth quarter, Tesla offered steep discounts and promotions in the U.S., China, and elsewhere to stimulate demand, putting pressure on its margins.

Despite a challenging quarter, Wall Street expects Tesla's 2022 sales growth to raise annual revenue by more than 50% from a year earlier and exceed $82 billion, according to analysts surveyed by FactSet.

Analysts predict that profit will increase more than 100% from 2021 to nearly $13 billion. Tesla's growth this year can be attributed to its two newly built factories in Austin, Texas and Brandenburg, Germany.

Tesla is set to report full fourth-quarter results on January 25th. Additionally, Tesla announced its first-ever Investor Day on March 1st, where the company will discuss its next-generation vehicle platform, among other topics.

Tesla FSD V13.2.1 Is Going Wide: When to Expect It and Its Holiday Update Features

Not a Tesla App

Tesla’s latest FSD Release - V13.2.1 began to go out in small waves just a few days ago. It included a bevy of new features and was the first release of FSD V13 to go past the early-access testers. While this release requires AI4/HW4, it’s available on all Tesla models, including the S, 3, X, Y, and, for the first time, the Cybertruck.

Now, Tesla’s VP of AI - Ashok Elluswamy, has confirmed that this release is going wide, meaning most HW4 vehicles in the U.S. and Canada should receive it in the next couple of weeks.

Ashok also said that vehicles on FSD V13 won’t have to wait much longer for Tesla’s Holiday update.

When Will You Receive FSD V13

Right now Tesla is rolling out FSD V13.2.1 to vehicles on an earlier version. So if you were already on FSD V13, or V12.5.x, then you should receive Tesla’s latest FSD build very soon.

However, if you’ve already received the Holiday update, then you’ll have to wait until Tesla’s FSD V13.2 build supports the Holiday update with version 2024.44.25.x. Once that’s available, you’ll be eligible to receive FSD V13.2 as well.

Should I Subscribe?

A question we hear often is whether someone should subscribe or unsubscribe to FSD in order to receive a certain update. If you don’t currently subscribe to FSD, now may be the perfect time to do so. It’ll instantly unlock FSD V12.5.4.2, which is included in the Holiday update. However, it’ll also make you eligible for the newest FSD updates, which should include FSD V13.2 with the holiday update features included in the near future.

When Is the Holiday Update Coming For V13 Users?

The 2024 Tesla Holiday update introduced many fantastic new features and changes, including the much-anticipated Apple Watch app. In addition, Tesla added a Dashcam and Sentry Mode viewer to the Tesla app and the ability to start a Light Show from the app.

On the safety and accessibility side, we also received Rear Cross Traffic Alert, another hotly-awaited feature.

There were a ton of navigation-related improvements, too, including Search Along Route - which also provides estimated detour times - and Arrival Energy at Destination. Weather got a rework, too - vehicles with AMD Ryzen processors received a precipitation map, while all vehicles received Weather at Destination.

We also got the SiriusXM streaming app for the Model 3, Model Y, and the Cybertruck, as well as an updated TuneIn App. There are also a bunch of other smaller features, including Custom Cybertruck Wraps, Santa Mode and Rainbow Road Updates, and some future potential for Steam Gaming. Tesla also announced that the custom wraps and license plate feature will be available for other models in the future.

While the majority of users have already received the Holiday update, the Tesla VP says that FSD V13 users can expect it within a week. So, hopefully, by this time next week, you’ll be playing with all the Christmas goodies.

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Tesla HW3 FSD Update Coming: What's Included & What to Expect

Not a Tesla App

It's been a while since HW3 owners have received a new FSD update, with the latest update coming with FSD version 12.5.4.2. While this version added vision-based attention monitoring with sunglasses, it’s still far behind the latest features available on FSD v13.2.1.

Tesla shared their FSD roadmap twice in the past few months, but HW3 was mostly left out, except for a single bullet point that stated there would be improved V12.5.x AI models for city driving.

We’ve recently seen HW4 vehicles receive much larger AI models, camera improvements that include processing video feeds at full resolution and 36 FPS, and much more. FSD V13 also gained features such as the ability to reverse and start FSD from park, amongst others.

It’s clear that HW3 is not powerful enough to run these latest FSD models, but HW3 owners are right to feel left out and disappointed with Tesla selling vehicles with HW3 up through the middle of 2023. Elon Musk has stated that Tesla will upgrade HW3 cars if needed, but are left in the dark in terms of what the upgrade will be and when it’ll become available.

Since that comment from Musk and Tesla’s updated roadmap in late October, Tesla hasn’t shared any additional news on HW3, until now.

Ashok Elluswamy, VP of AI at Tesla, has confirmed on X that an FSD update for HW3 owners is coming before the end of the year. Putting aside the 2 weeks joke, he did confirm that FSD V12.6 will be on its way for HW3 vehicles by the end of the year - which just happens to be about 2 weeks away.

FSD V12.6

WholeMarsBlog on X

It seems that the V12.6 build will be unique to Hardware 3 - as there haven’t been any builds with that FSD version yet. The closest build that we have to look at is FSD V12.5.6.4, which only went out to HW4 vehicles. We expect FSD V12.6 to include everything in 12.5.6.4 with possibly some additions.

FSD V12.5.6 brought a lot of improvements. We covered all of the features in FSD 12.5.6 previously, if you want a detailed breakdown and photos of all the features. However, here’s a high level overview of everything that version included:

• Better and More Natural Lane Change Decisions

• Updated Speed Profiles, including Hurry Mode

• Auto Speed Changes

• End-to-End Highway Stack

• Audio Data Collection

These changes greatly improved FSD on HW4, so we’ll have to wait and see if they provide similar improvements for HW3 vehicles. The more natural decisions should improve overall smoothness and get rid of the jerky-wheel syndrome and green-light braking that has become synonymous with V12.5.4.2. Alongside better lane selection, this makes the entire experience much smoother and more fitting of Full Self Driving.

The updated speed profiles are applicable on both roads and highways (up to 50 mph with this version), which means you’ll get an updated Chill Mode (with Minimal Lane Changes), Standard Mode, and the new Hurry Mode, which is focused on driving faster and making more frequent lane changes.

Auto Speed has also been removed in favor of Max Speed, which will let you define an overall max while letting FSD still pick its overall speed up to that maximum set speed. You can adjust the hard max by using your scroll wheel to slow down or speed up the vehicle.

However, the biggest feature in this update is the new End-to-End Highway Stack, which finally brings the benefits of FSD V12 on city streets to highway driving.

The final feature that we’re expecting in FSD V12.6 is the ability to collect audio data to begin training for hearing emergency vehicles. This one will be big and it’s what will make FSD feel very human-like. Tesla is starting off with detecting emergency vehicles, but you can expect them to start detecting much more than that soon.

Tesla hints at that in their release notes, saying that audio sharing will be used for features such as emergency vehicle detection. Expect FSD to react to more in the future, such as vehicles honking or someone yelling. Tesla also said that they’ll be looking to have the vehicle honk when needed.

Why FSD 12.6

It’s interesting that Tesla is choosing to name this version FSD 12.6 instead of FSD 12.5.6.x, like they’ve done in the past. This points at some additional improvements being included, but it’s not clear what they could be. Could Tesla bring down some improvements from FSD V13, or add some features such as the ability to reverse?

Tesla may want to stay away from the FSD V13 name if the HW3 version isn’t going to perform as well as FSD V13 on HW4, but at the same time, they could simplify some FSD V13 features and make them available for HW3 owners.

What’s in FSD V13

Let’s take a quick look at all the features in FSD V13 that weren’t in FSD 12.5.6.x. FSD V13 includes significant improvements to the FSD model that just won’t fit into HW3 that are likely responsible the the smoothness seen in FSD V13. This includes a much larger model, full camera resolution, higher frame rates, and more, but FSD V13 also includes these additional features:

• Speed Profiles on both City Streets and Highways (available on all roads and speeds)

• Integrated unpark, reverse, and park capabilities

• Start FSD from Park

• Improved reward predictions for collision avoidance

• Improved camera cleaning

• Redesigned controller for smoother, more accurate tracking

• Dynamic routing around road closures, which displays them along an affected route when they are detected by the fleet

While the larger model of FSD V13 is not expected to be available for HW3 vehicles, some of these other features have the possibility of making the cut in V12.6.

Legacy Vehicles

There’s no news on Model S and Model X legacy vehicles with MCU 1 receiving the same update just yet. Teslas with MCU 1 did receive FSD V12.3.6 on update 2024.26.3.1, but we haven’t seen anything indicating there will be another update coming soon. However, getting FSD 12.6 out for HW3 with MCU 2 could be the precursor to it becoming available for older MCU 1 vehicles.

We’re super excited to hear Tesla talking about HW3 vehicles and that an update is coming in just a couple of weeks. While it’s not FSD V13, it could provide massive improvements until a hardware upgrade becomes available for HW3 owners.

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