Tesla held their Q3 2022 earnings call on Wednesday
Tesla
Tesla has grown at an incredible rate, but according to Elon Musk, we haven't seen anything yet. So the company's CEO made the earnings call a can't miss event for investors and enthusiasts. The third quarter earnings call highlighted expected growth, buybacks and resumes. After the call, Musk tweeted: I will not let you down, no matter what It takes. Here is a quick recap of what we learned from the 58-minute call.
First, there are some quick points before we get into more detailed highlights. Musk says quarter-four is shaping up to be "epic" and promises a record-breaking performance. Tesla is not "recession-proof," but is resilient. Musk does not see any reason to slow down production, as demand is still far more than supply. RoboTaxi is progressing. The program would provide autonomous vehicles as cabs, but hinges on the full self-driving program.
Tesla Will Have the Largest Market Cap
In his opening remarks to investors, Musk made an extraordinary prediction. He said that Tesla would have the largest market cap in the world, surpassing second-place Saudi Aramco and first-place Apple. Not only would his company take the lead, "In fact, I see a potential path for Tesla to be worth more than Apple and Saudi Aramco combined."
The combined market cap of those two companies is more than 4.4 trillion. Tesla is worth just over $690 billion. Musk says it won't be easy, but "It will require a lot of work, some very creative new products, manage expansion and always - luck… We have an incredible product portfolio. I think we've got the most exciting product portfolio of any company on earth, some of which you've heard about, some of which you haven't." He later added that this prediction did not include Optimus coming to market. Tesla recently updated its humanoid robot to be put to work in Tesla factories before being available to the world in 2027.
Buybacks Could Happen in 2023
The topic of buybacks regularly surfaces during these earnings calls. Musk said that it has been discussed, "extensively at the Board level. The Board generally thinks that it makes sense to do a buyback." He added that the company would be looking at doing a buyback of $5 to $10 billion, and even if 2023 is a down year, "it's likely that we'll do some meaningful buyback."
Unfortunately, the buybacks won't happen before the 1% tax on buybacks kicks in on January 1, 2023. Some speculate this is the real reason the buybacks were pushed to next year, to avoid the optics of trying to dodge a new tax.
Tesla is Becoming the Go-To for the Brightest Minds
A.I. Day 2022 was a big hit, not only for showing off Optimus and Full Self-Driving improvements but generating interest in the company. While A.I. Day is viewed by many as a way for the company to show off its latest achievements, it's a recruitment drive.
Tesla includes several staff members to discuss projects, while Musk encourages people with interest to apply. "We've seen a massive influx of world-class artificial intelligence engineers and scientists resumes. So, it generated a tremendous amount of interest from some of the best AI researchers in the world. I can't emphasize the importance of this enough because I think finally it has become clear to the smartest AI technologists in the world that Tesla is among the very best."
50 Percent Annual Growth
Tesla is going to need all the help it can get. The company is still committed to growing by 50 percent yearly in both deliveries and revenue. "We expect to sell every car that we make for as far into the future as we can see. So, the factories are running at full speed, and we're delivering every car we make and keeping operating margins strong," said Musk.
Despite the company's strong growth, he admits Tesla is still tiny in the big picture: "We are still a very small percentage of the total vehicles on the road. Of the 2 billion cars and trucks on the road, we only have about 3.5 million. So, we've got a long way to go to even reach 1% of the global fleet."
That said, there has been a monumental shift to electric vehicles in the past year, prompting Musk to say, "I think the public, at large, realizes that everyone's moving towards electric vehicles and that it's foolish to actually buy a new gasoline car at this point because the residual value of that gasoline car is going to be very low. So, I think we have to be in a very good spot."
That means there are two billion cars that could be retired in the coming years and replaced with electric vehicles. Therefore, the consumer pool will only get bigger and demand for EVs will continue to grow,
Tesla maintains two primary software branches: the main feature branch and the FSD branch. In general, the FSD branch lags behind on new features pushed to the main branch but provides a more recent FSD version.
However, now Tesla is updating the main branch to a much more recent version of FSD.
Current FSD Build & Shadow Mode
Nowadays, the main branch always includes an older but stable build of FSD. It’s been on FSD V12.3.6 since July 2024. So, if you subscribe to FSD in North America, this is the FSD version you’ll receive until you get added to the FSD track.
Even if you don’t subscribe to or have purchased FSD, your vehicle has v12.3.6 on it. That includes vehicles in regions where FSD isn’t available for general use, such as Europe and China. In those cases, FSD runs in Shadow Mode, providing training data to Tesla if you’ve agreed to their data privacy policies. So Tesla is always analyzing what the vehicle would do compared to what the driver does. When there are contradictions, these are the clips and data Tesla will want to analyze.
FSD V12.5.4.2 on Main Branch
For the first time in five months, Tesla has now updated the baseline version of FSD in the main branch. The new version included with 2024.44 updates is FSD v12.5.4.2. This Tesla is updating the baseline FSD version to FSD V12.5.4.2
FSD 12.5 includes many features for a much smoother experience compared to FSD 12.3.6. Many users will appreciate that it gets rid of the steering wheel nag and instead relies on the cabin camera to provide real-time driver monitoring. This version also includes support for sunglasses with driver monitoring. It’ll be a big upgrade for anyone coming from FSD 12.3.6.
It's always a good thing when Tesla updates the baseline FSD version—that means that Tesla is confident that this new baseline is considerably safer and will continue to train the fleet against it.
What Update Am I Getting?
If you’re already on FSD V12.5.4.2, you’ll likely remain on that FSD build unless V13.3 manages to make its way to the public as Tesla originally planned, but that’s unlikely to happen before the Thanksgiving holiday. In all likelihood, you’ll be getting update 2024.44, which will give you some additional Tesla features while keeping you on the same FSD version.
For those who are already on 2024.44 - if you subscribe now, you’ll have V12.5.4.2 enabled on your vehicle.
If you have a Cybertruck, then you’ll receive update 2024.39.5 with FSD V12.5.5.3. They’re on a unique build for the moment, and this will likely be the case until Tesla acquires enough training data from the Cybertruck fleet.
The Cybertruck is having an eventful November. Just last week, we shared the news that Tesla isn’t offering their in-house wrap service for the Cybertruck anymore; the Foundation Series is now available in inventory in select US locations, Crossbars have arrived, and faster charging is around the corner. Now there’s even more to discuss about the stainless steel beast.
Projection Puddle Lights
Like the recently launched puddle lights for the Model 3 and Model Y, Tesla has introduced a set of add-on Projector Puddle Lights for the Cybertruck. These Cybertruck-specific ones go for $75 USD, or $105 CAD and are available in both the Canadian and US Tesla stores.
However, these don’t have the Tesla wordmark - instead, they feature the iconic Cybertruck symbol and, in our opinion, look even nicer. Here’s to hoping Tesla also introduces a set with the graffiti-style Cybertruck wordmark.
Powershare in Canada
While the Foundation Series Cybertruck has been getting delivered in Canada since November 7th, there was no news on Powershare being supported due to regulatory constraints. On the 20th, Foundation Series owners in Canada began to receive emails to get their Powershare installs started through Tesla’s official installer - Qmerit.
More to follow on pricing and the process as we receive our Canadian quote from Qmerit soon.
FSD in Canada
The Cybertruck Program Manager, Siddhant Awasthi, confirmed that with Powershare now becoming available, FSD for the Cybertruck in Canada will also become available soon. Canadian trucks shipped with a factory software build that didn’t include FSD, but did include TACC and stoplight/traffic control.
Early this morning Tesla began rolling out a new version of FSD 12.5.5.3 for the Cybertruck, which is update 2024.39.5. Will this be the version that rolls out in Canada?
Update: Yesterday, Tesla started rolling out FSD on the Cybertruck in Canada for the first time. The update being rolled out is update 2024.39.5, which not only features the latest FSD available on the Cybertruck, version 12.5.5.3, but it also includes all the features update 2024.38, which includes the huge Sentry Mode improvements that reduce power consumption by about 40%.
Following Integrated Flight Test 6 for SpaceX’s Starship, Elon Musk confirmed that uncrewed Starships are likely to begin making their way to Mars in about 2 years. You’re probably going to ask what’s going to be in those Starships - that’s what Brett Winston on X asked as well. Elon confirmed that Cybertrucks and Optimus robots will be among some of the first items landing on Mars.
That’s a ton of awesome news for Cybertruck, and there’s absolutely going to be more around the corner, especially as we await the big Tesla Holiday Update. While you wait, why not take a look at our Holiday Update Wishlists?
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